View Poll Results: Which party do you expect to vote for in the House of Reps at the federal election?

Voters
20. You may not vote on this poll
  • Liberal

    4 20.00%
  • National

    0 0%
  • Labor

    2 10.00%
  • Green

    6 30.00%
  • Katters Australian Party

    0 0%
  • Palmer United Party

    0 0%
  • Family First

    0 0%
  • Nick Xenophon Team

    1 5.00%
  • Some other party not listed above

    2 10.00%
  • Independent (Only choose this option if you know a specific indie you will vote for)

    1 5.00%
  • Informal or won't vote

    4 20.00%
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  1. #1
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Who will you vote for in the federal election?

    Just thought I'd put a poll up to see if Chesschat leans to the left, right, centre or just plain eccentric.

    Private poll so votes will not be publicly identified.

    Qualification for listing in the poll is that a party scored >1% in the Reps last time or is expected to do so this time based on national polling.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 16-05-2016 at 02:17 PM.

  2. #2
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    As far as I know there will just be a LNP, GRN and Xenophon candidate on my ballot. Not exactly spoiled for choice.
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

  3. #3
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rincewind View Post
    As far as I know there will just be a LNP, GRN and Xenophon candidate on my ballot. Not exactly spoiled for choice.
    I assume Labor will eventually endorse some ballot-filler. The major parties generally run in all 150 seats because even running dead gets them over the 4% for public funding.

  4. #4
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rincewind View Post
    As far as I know there will just be a LNP, GRN and Xenophon candidate on my ballot. Not exactly spoiled for choice.
    Which seat if you don't mind me asking?

  5. #5
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Garvinator View Post
    Which seat if you don't mind me asking?
    Mayo.
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

  6. #6
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    I assume Labor will eventually endorse some ballot-filler. The major parties generally run in all 150 seats because even running dead gets them over the 4% for public funding.
    The ALP ran Norah Fahy last time. Not sure if she is getting another run.

    In any case I think it will come down to a contest between LNP and the XTeam candidate. Note sure how close it might be but Xenophon is up-beat.
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

  7. #7
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rincewind View Post
    Mayo.
    An interesting seat to be in. Mayo is probably first against the wall if the NXT revolution really gets going. If they can get about 19% statewide it should drop.

  8. #8
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    An interesting seat to be in. Mayo is probably first against the wall if the NXT revolution really gets going. If they can get about 19% statewide it should drop.
    I moved from Cunningham to Mayo and swapped one blue ribbon electorate for another of a completely different stripe. If NXT can win Mayo it will be an historic win since LNP have been returned here forever. It would also be an ignominious conclusion to the 44th parliament for Briggs.
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

  9. #9
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Not sure if this is everyone, but looks almost complete and includes Mayo: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candid...outh_Australia

  10. #10
    CC Candidate Master thomasdav's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    I assume Labor will eventually endorse some ballot-filler. The major parties generally run in all 150 seats because even running dead gets them over the 4% for public funding.
    As I recall, in one of the recent elections Labor didn't even bother to put a candidate on the ballot - I think it was the one just after Downer retired. That's certainly not the case this time, though.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rincewind View Post
    The ALP ran Norah Fahy last time. Not sure if she is getting another run.

    In any case I think it will come down to a contest between LNP and the XTeam candidate. Note sure how close it might be but Xenophon is up-beat.
    A close election would be something of a shock around here, methinks. People still talk about the time the Democrats came close to winning the seat by fielding a celebrity (before my time), but in reality the Liberals have a pretty strong hold - where my house sits has never not been held by the Liberal member at state or federal level and the demographics of being predominantly rural, quickly ageing and having mainly small rather than large businesses would all seem to give them the advantage. All this has had the rather predictable effect of very little policy attention from either major party. People sometimes cite a comparatively large Greens vote in recent years, but from the few statistics I've seen those seem to be coming for out of Labor's pocket than Liberal's, and the occasional 'strong' independent candidate historically has done little more than make the counting process longer.

    On the other hand, that might be exactly why the Democrats once came close and why NXT seems to have a chance at challenging Briggs this time - if people decide that they want a change but haven't been willing to go as far as supporting Labor or the Greens, then an alternative like NXT might be what they are looking for. Add that to the fact that Briggs certainly isn't the man of the moment means that this will certainly one of the most interesting elections around here for a while!

  11. #11
    CC Grandmaster ER's Avatar
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    I voted informal. Being overseas (Canada, USA) I hadn't even time to study the Budget!
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    https://aus2020.chesschamp.net/

  12. #12
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomasdav View Post
    As I recall, in one of the recent elections Labor didn't even bother to put a candidate on the ballot - I think it was the one just after Downer retired. That's certainly not the case this time, though.
    Yes, that was the Mayo by-election 2008. It's quite common for oppositions to not contest by-elections for safe government seats, either to avoid embarrassing results or in the hope of causing the government to lose to an indie or minor party (Briggs only beat the Greens 53-47).

  13. #13
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    Yes, that was the Mayo by-election 2008. It's quite common for oppositions to not contest by-elections for safe government seats, either to avoid embarrassing results or in the hope of causing the government to lose to an indie or minor party (Briggs only beat the Greens 53-47).
    As the eventual second runner was a Green couldn't an ALP candidate have helped Lynton Vonow in terms of preference flows?
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

  14. #14
    CC Candidate Master thomasdav's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    Yes, that was the Mayo by-election 2008. It's quite common for oppositions to not contest by-elections for safe government seats, either to avoid embarrassing results or in the hope of causing the government to lose to an indie or minor party (Briggs only beat the Greens 53-47).
    Ah, of course. I forgot that Downer left mid-term.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rincewind View Post
    As the eventual second runner was a Green couldn't an ALP candidate have helped Lynton Vonow in terms of preference flows?
    I can't see how - instant runoff means that in theory you'd end up with the same final players anyway (I can't see the margins being close enough for reliable non-monotonicity shenanigans), just with Labor spending money on the campaign. Unless perhaps they wanted a platform to make media statements about the opponent's policy/experience/etc., but that's still a strange move for something that doesn't directly give you a seat or even assist with the house situation at all.
    Last edited by thomasdav; 17-05-2016 at 12:25 PM.

  15. #15
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thomasdav View Post
    I can't see how - instant runoff means that in theory you'd end up with the same final players anyway (I can't see the margins being close enough for reliable non-monotonicity shenanigans), just with Labor spending money on the campaign. Unless perhaps they wanted a platform to make media statements about the opponent's policy/experience/etc., but that's still a strange move for something that doesn't directly give you a seat or even assist with the house situation at all.
    I was thinking that the existence of an ALP candidate and therefore ALP how-to-vote information on election day may have changed voter behaviour in a way which may have sent more preferences to Vonow ahead of Briggs. Without a candidate self-identifying ALP voters may have picked a candidate whose how-to-vote information listed LNP above GRN or else winged it and nominated Briggs above Vonow. This is all assuming the ALP share of the primary vote did not cause Vonow any problems.
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

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