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  1. #1
    Account Permanently Banned PHAT's Avatar
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    Testing extrapolation

    ID# .Glik04sep.....1 ....2 ....3 ....4 ....5 ....6 ....7 ....8 .... 9 ....10
    2016122 1792 1772 1774 1775 1776 1766 1757 1751 1747 1776 1738
    2015956 1311 1295 1299 1301 1303 1263 1247 1235 1225 1310 1308
    2015116 1642 1626 1625 1625 1625 1610 1596 1585 1574 1636 1624
    2014932 2095 2084 2085 2086 2087 2072 2062 2055 2049 2093 2085
    2013230 2334 2329 2334 2336 2339 2321 2318 2317 2322 2334 2334
    2012261 1541 1528 1528 1528 1527 1519 1508 1500 1492 1536 1514
    2011760 1507 1504 1506 1507 1509 1492 1494 1500 1523 1507 1507
    2011056 1830 1831 1829 1827 1826 1821 1812 1805 1799 1830 1830
    1291535 1163 1181 1182 1182 1183 1191 1200 1207 1212 1172 1191
    1281421 1985 2025 2021 2020 2018 2034 2050 2062 2071 2018 2087
    1281340 1832 1845 1845 1845 1844 1859 1864 1866 1866 1837 1844
    1279615 2037 2074 2073 2073 2072 2084 2098 2107 2115 2060 2099
    1276956 1650 1653 1653 1652 1652 1661 1666 1670 1672 1650 1652
    1276422 1948 1981 1978 1976 1974 1998 2015 2028 2038 1964 1990
    1275884 2075 2086 2089 2090 2093 2096 2110 2121 2134 2078 2095
    1275405 1228 1220 1217 1215 1214 1218 1215 1212 1208 1225 1216
    1274360 1656 1653 1654 1654 1654 1659 1663 1667 1670 1656 1655
    1274013 1141 1112 1112 1112 1112 1091 1072 1057 1043 1126 1091
    1273475 1301 1293 1293 1293 1294 1265 1258 1253 1254 1301 1300
    1272716 1870 1873 1871 1870 1869 1890 1896 1900 1903 1870 1870
    1272602 1295 1287 1286 1285 1284 1268 1254 1242 1232 1295 1293
    1271784 1672 1652 1655 1656 1658 1636 1625 1618 1612 1664 1650
    1270583 1416 1404 1406 1407 1408 1393 1386 1381 1378 1413 1405
    1270325 1745 1731 1732 1733 1734 1719 1710 1705 1700 1741 1727
    1194316 1560 1549 1547 1546 1545 1545 1538 1532 1526 1557 1548
    1011082 1754 1725 1726 1726 1727 1717 1705 1696 1688 1734 1687
    2059200 1771 1774 1772 1771 1770 1780 1777 1763 1755 1772 1771
    2059185 1024 1012 1009 1008 1006 991 973 958 944 1023 1014
    2058636 1432 1430 1430 1429 1429 1438 1437 1425 1422 1432 1431
    2058010 1398 1389 1388 1388 1388 1382 1374 1368 1363 1396 1391
    2057181 1661 1657 1655 1655 1653 1649 1644 1640 1636 1660 1658
    2057096 1463 1452 1453 1454 1455 1436 1429 1423 1419 1461 1458
    2055943 2400 2400 2399 2398 2398 2408 2418 2425 2431 2400 2400
    2055814 1790 1771 1772 1772 1773 1762 1752 1744 1736 1778 1752
    2054963 2232 2237 2237 2237 2237 2244 2248 2251 2253 2233 2235
    2054145 2203 2218 2215 2214 2212 2232 2242 2249 2254 2207 2214
    2054090 1532 1518 1517 1516 1515 1508 1495 1485 1476 1526 1506
    2053692 1660 1642 1647 1649 1652 1620 1609 1602 1599 1657 1655
    2053563 2131 2142 2140 2139 2137 2156 2161 2163 2162 2133 2137
    2052992 1914 1907 1906 1905 1905 1896 1886 1879 1873 1913 1911
    2052244 1644 1644 1642 1641 1640 1664 1666 1663 1656 1644 1642
    2051941 1527 1519 1522 1524 1526 1497 1491 1488 1488 1527 1527
    2051402 1866 1846 1845 1844 1844 1834 1824 1817 1811 1860 1847
    2050842 2050 2049 2049 2049 2050 2061 2069 2073 2079 2049 2049
    2050816 1528 1516 1518 1519 1520 1495 1489 1487 1487 1526 1525
    2050690 2004 1997 1998 1998 1998 1966 1951 1939 1929 2004 2004
    2050524 1731 1717 1715 1715 1713 1702 1687 1675 1664 1725 1710
    2050491 2197 2191 2190 2189 2188 2184 2179 2175 2171 2195 2192
    2049776 1468 1458 1461 1463 1464 1454 1446 1440 1435 1465 1453
    2047224 1907 1913 1908 1906 1903 1938 1945 1949 1952 1907 1905
    2045404 1995 1980 1979 1978 1976 1964 1949 1938 1927 1991 1977
    2044052 1799 1785 1784 1784 1783 1774 1765 1758 1752 1793 1779
    2041635 1642 1626 1626 1626 1627 1604 1587 1574 1563 1638 1628
    2039911 1724 1714 1714 1714 1714 1700 1697 1695 1696 1723 1722
    2039756 1626 1625 1625 1625 1626 1619 1616 1615 1615 1626 1626
    2039616 1553 1540 1540 1539 1539 1529 1516 1507 1494 1550 1539
    2039432 1421 1411 1416 1419 1423 1389 1382 1378 1379 1421 1421
    2035803 1975 1966 1966 1965 1964 1949 1938 1929 1921 1974 1969
    2035103 2641 2642 2641 2640 2640 2654 2660 2664 2669 2641 2641
    2034042 1675 1663 1660 1659 1656 1659 1643 1629 1616 1670 1641
    2034005 1410 1405 1403 1402 1402 1393 1396 1407 1424 1409 1410
    2033994 1365 1341 1340 1339 1338 1318 1295 1278 1262 1361 1345
    2033666 1824 1809 1805 1804 1801 1811 1794 1783 1769 1814 1779
    2033106 1873 1852 1855 1856 1858 1828 1815 1807 1802 1869 1856
    2032734 1440 1421 1420 1420 1420 1412 1406 1401 1398 1428 1409
    2031555 1784 1767 1766 1766 1767 1756 1753 1754 1763 1779 1772
    2031345 1425 1415 1415 1415 1415 1408 1401 1395 1390 1420 1403
    2028512 1705 1695 1691 1690 1687 1698 1688 1680 1672 1699 1679
    2026946 1913 1897 1895 1895 1895 1882 1874 1868 1863 1908 1901
    2026600 1646 1628 1630 1631 1632 1608 1599 1595 1593 1642 1635
    2026482 1043 1023 1022 1021 1021 1017 1016 1016 1019 1029 1003
    2025701 1531 1519 1519 1520 1520 1497 1486 1478 1472 1529 1524
    2025163 2073 2078 2077 2077 2077 2084 2089 2093 2096 2075 2077
    2024695 1927 1911 1914 1915 1917 1890 1875 1863 1854 1924 1917
    2024242 1817 1815 1812 1811 1809 1838 1843 1847 1844 1817 1816
    2024065 1609 1599 1600 1601 1601 1592 1588 1585 1583 1604 1597
    2022245 1390 1372 1374 1374 1375 1350 1335 1324 1314 1386 1377
    2021523 1752 1756 1758 1758 1760 1740 1746 1763 1775 1754 1767
    2020403 1597 1572 1571 1571 1570 1560 1542 1529 1517 1588 1553
    Last edited by PHAT; 30-11-2004 at 10:01 PM.

  2. #2
    CC Grandmaster Alan Shore's Avatar
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    ......

    Um.. so what's it all mean?

    Could it be the Da Vinci Code?
    "I can't go back to yesterday because I was a different person then."
    - White Queen, Alice through the Looking-Glass

  3. #3
    Account Permanently Banned PHAT's Avatar
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    I will try to tidy the first post later.

    The table above shows the Sep04 rating of 79 players and ten (10) ratings that could have been their published ratings had their performance over time been extrapolated using ten (10) different algorithms.

    What I ask of The ACF ratings officer is for the performance rating of each of these 79 players during the last rating period. Using that information, I would like to determine if the Glicko2 rating for Sep2004 is a better pedictor by itself than with my own modifications.

    Of the 10 algorithms, I expect only 2 or 3 to lead to a better prediction of the players' actual performance in the Sep2004 period. The other 7 or 8 are mear experiments intended to reveal mathematical patterns to the experimentor (me).

    Please note that these 10 predictions for 79 players, is of their [i]actual performance, not of the Glicko2 generated Dec2004 list.

  4. #4
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Sweeney
    I will try to tidy the first post later.

    The table above shows the Sep04 rating of 79 players and ten (10) ratings that could have been their published ratings had their performance over time been extrapolated using ten (10) different algorithms.

    What I ask of The ACF ratings officer is for the performance rating of each of these 79 players during the last rating period. Using that information, I would like to determine if the Glicko2 rating for Sep2004 is a better pedictor by itself than with my own modifications.

    Of the 10 algorithms, I expect only 2 or 3 to lead to a better prediction of the players' actual performance in the Sep2004 period. The other 7 or 8 are mear experiments intended to reveal mathematical patterns to the experimentor (me).

    Please note that these 10 predictions for 79 players, is of their [i]actual performance, not of the Glicko2 generated Dec2004 list.

    would putting your table in code tags and disabling smilies make it easier to read? have you tried that?

    Ill answer my own post as I just tried it, no it doesnt.

  5. #5
    Account Permanently Banned PHAT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ggrayggray
    would putting your table in code tags and disabling smilies make it easier to read? have you tried that?

    Ill answer my own post as I just tried it, no it doesnt.
    I just wanted the figures "on the record" before BGs list comes out. I have it summerised on an Excel spreadsheet. Now I only need performance data from the ACF.

    I have am optimistic that I will beat Glicko2 in the Prediction Stakes at the Ratings Arena tonight.

  6. #6
    Illuminati Bill Gletsos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Sweeney
    I just wanted the figures "on the record" before BGs list comes out. I have it summerised on an Excel spreadsheet. Now I only need performance data from the ACF.

    I have am optimistic that I will beat Glicko2 in the Prediction Stakes at the Ratings Arena tonight.
    I just picked 5 at random.

    In all 5 cases all of your predictions went the opposite (wrong) way.

    Also if the Glicko2 for example drops a player from 1500 to 1450 you can be certain his perfomance rating was at least as low as 1450. Therefore you can use the published rating without needing the "performance" rating.
    e.g Canfell's rating is lower than all your estimates. His performance rating was lower than his published rating.
    Last edited by Bill Gletsos; 30-11-2004 at 10:39 PM. Reason: corrected grammer

  7. #7
    Illuminati Bill Gletsos's Avatar
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    Of course this whole theory is rubbish as was explained last time you tried it.

    You cannot determine a players new rating by just extrapolating based only on his past results.
    If this was true, there would be no need for the players to play any games at all. You could just extrapolate them every period.

    You need his results from the current period.

  8. #8
    Account Permanently Banned PHAT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Gletsos
    I just picked 5 at random.

    In all 5 cases all of your predictions went the opposite (wrong) way.
    Don't be silly. 5 random, for direction only, means nothing.

    Also if the Glicko2 for example drops a player from 1500 to 1450 you can be certain his perfomance rating was at least as low as 1450.
    Please don't tell me how to suck eggs.

    Therefore you can use the published rating without needing the "performance" rating.
    No I cannot, because, the magnitude - and not just direction - of the discrepency is important to determine quantitative measure of predictivity.

    I trust that since you have Cranfeld's preformance rating at hand, you will be able to spend 10 minutes to retrieve the preformance rating of the other 78, some time in the next few days. Just PM them to me. Thanks.
    Last edited by PHAT; 30-11-2004 at 10:40 PM.

  9. #9
    Illuminati Bill Gletsos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Sweeney
    Don't be silly. 5 random, for direction only, means nothing.
    Of course it does. It shows you did not even get the direction right for 6% of yout attempts.

    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Sweeney
    Please don't tell me how to suck eggs.
    You apparently dont know how to.

    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Sweeney
    Therefore you can use the published rating without needing the "performance" rating.
    No I cannot, because, the magnitude - and not just direction - of the discrepency is important to determine quantitative measure of predictivity.
    Actually you cannot use that as a true measure of predictive accuracy.
    As has been explained many times on the bb the true measure of predictive accuracy is how close a players predicted score matches his actual score.

    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Sweeney
    I trust that since you have Cranfeld's preformance rating at hand, you will be able to spend 10 minutes to retrieve the preformance rating of the other 78, some time in the next few days. Just PM them to me. Thanks.
    Thats Canfell you idiot and no I dont know his performance rating. I know his new Dec rating. I dont have to know his performance rating to know that the rating system would not drop his Dec rating below his performance rating. Hence I know his performance rating must be equal to or below his published rating.

    Lets see how many you get in the right direction first.
    If you get a decent number correct, I might be inclined to determine the "performance" ratings.

    I'm not going to waste my time on what is a worthless pursuit.

    It is after all obvious that you cannot predict a trend.
    Just because a players rating went up one period or even in successive periods does not mean it will go up in the next period. The same is true if it went down.
    Last edited by Bill Gletsos; 30-11-2004 at 10:55 PM. Reason: spelling correction

  10. #10
    Account Permanently Banned PHAT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Gletsos
    It is after all obvious that you cannot predict a trend.
    Just because a players rating went up one period or even in successive periods does not mean it will go up in the next period. The same is true if it went down.
    This statement is likely to be the mill stone that drags on you forever.

  11. #11
    Illuminati Bill Gletsos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Sweeney
    This statement is likely to be the mill stone that drags on you forever.
    You know nothing about ratings just like you know nothing about other areas of chess.

  12. #12
    Account Permanently Banned PHAT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Gletsos
    You know nothing about ratings just like you know nothing about other areas of chess.
    Gratuitous abuse from the President and spokesman for the NSWCA.

    Not a good look for NSW chess administration.

  13. #13
    Illuminati Bill Gletsos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Sweeney
    Gratuitous abuse from the President and spokesman for the NSWCA.

    Not a good look for NSW chess administration.
    Its not gratuitous abuse from me at all as President of the NSWCA.

    Its a statement of fact from me as the ACF Ratings Officer.

  14. #14
    Account Permanently Banned PHAT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Gletsos
    You need his results from the current period.
    Only to correct the Glicko prediction for next period.

  15. #15
    Account Permanently Banned PHAT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Gletsos
    Its not gratuitous abuse from me at all as President of the NSWCA.

    Its a statement of fact from me as the ACF Ratings Officer.
    OK, from an official of Australia's peak chess body, the ACF.

    Again, not a good look.

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