View Poll Results: Who will win? (This poll asks who will win, not who do you want to win)

Voters
24. You may not vote on this poll
  • Labor by >30 seats

    0 0%
  • Labor by 16-30 seats

    0 0%
  • Labor by 15 or less seats

    2 8.33%
  • Hung Parliament

    1 4.17%
  • Coalition by 15 or less seats

    6 25.00%
  • Coalition by 16-30 seats

    9 37.50%
  • Coalition by >30 seats

    6 25.00%
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  1. #1
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Australian Federal Election 2013 [Coalition Wins]

    The Prime Minister has announced September 14 as the election day although the campaign will not begin until August 2.

    I will put the who-will-win poll up at that time, to avoid the problem of people voting much too early then wishing they could change their vote.

  2. #2
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    The Prime Minister has announced September 14 as the election day
    Also would have been Amy Winehouse's 30th birthday. Coincidence?
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

  3. #3
    CC Grandmaster
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    The Perth Chief Rabbi was on the radio this afternoon putting paid to the complaints about the clash with Yom Kippur. He pointed out that observant Jews are not allowed to vote on the Sabbath anyway, and therefore they *always* have to vote early or postal.

  4. #4
    CC Grandmaster Desmond's Avatar
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    Any precedent for such an early announcement? Seems like a defacto fixed date system.
    So what's your excuse? To run like the devil's chasing you.

    See you in another life, brotha.

  5. #5
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by road runner
    Any precedent for such an early announcement? Seems like a defacto fixed date system.
    There have been cases of elections being announced up to 66 days ahead (Menzies did this twice; Hawke called one 53 days long in 1984 with near-disastrous consequences) but so far I have not seen anyone unearth an Australian precedent for this sort of thing.

    The NZ PM announced their November 2011 election in February 2011.

    Fixed-date systems exist in most Australian state parliaments now.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 27-03-2016 at 03:46 PM.

  6. #6
    CC International Master
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    Julia gets it right.

    well she had to get something right sometime.

    The election date does not clash with any Box Hill Chess Club events.

    Will our sometime President Gladys Liu be allocated a winnable lower house seat or a higher spot on the coalition Senate ticket.

    We will have to wait and see.

  7. #7
    CC Grandmaster
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    Quote Originally Posted by pax
    The Perth Chief Rabbi was on the radio this afternoon putting paid to the complaints about the clash with Yom Kippur. He pointed out that observant Jews are not allowed to vote on the Sabbath anyway, and therefore they *always* have to vote early or postal.
    Most Jews do not observe Sabbath, but do observe Yom Kippur. For someone like me it's an inconvinience, albeit not a major one.
    Yom Kippur is often translated (incorrectly) as "Judgement day" This time, I hope, it'll be a judgement day for ALP. I'll definetely mail my judgement in.
    For private coaching (IM, four times VIC champion) call or SMS 0417519733
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  8. #8
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    After the latest brace of polling and in particular the 58-42 Newspoll, Labor is now crossed the Howard 2001 line and hence is in a position from which no government has won in terms of 2PP deficit for time remaining. That said a cross-poll aggregate at present is more likely to be in the 55s or maybe 56s than anything like 58.

    I have an article up at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2...sted-what.html (written after the Galaxy poll then updated after three further polls) which discusses all this and also discusses the "bounce" Labor supposedly received in 2010 when Gillard was installed.

    A new aggregation of 2010 data released by one of my colleagues suggests that the bounce was actually only worth a point and didn't last very long. Rudd was in an election-winning polling position when dumped; whether he would actually have won is another question but I reckon he would despite his faults.

  9. #9
    CC Grandmaster antichrist's Avatar
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    Rudd deserved to win because he actually stood for something - he had the hope of youth in his hands, but the rats and Powermen, as predicted by the Kinks in their 1960's album, always win.
    Zionism is racism as defined by the UN, Israel by every dirty means available steals land and water, kill Palestinian freedom fighters and civilians, and operates an apartheid system to drive more Palestinians off their land

  10. #10
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    How Common is a Five-Point Swing In Less Than Four Months?

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2...-in-under.html

    My latest federal pseph article (have been mainly focused on state politics for the last couple of months). Looks at the history of swings of the magnitude and speed that would be required to get Labor over the line from here and concludes that:

    (i) they are not as rare as might be thought
    (ii) that doesn't help Labor, because when they happen they are mostly based on stuff that doesn't last til election day

    I also look at a recently released model that has given the Coalition a 93.6% chance of winning outright and consider it to be optimistic for Labor.

  11. #11
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by antichrist
    Rudd deserved to win because he actually stood for something - he had the hope of youth in his hands, but the rats and Powermen, as predicted by the Kinks in their 1960's album, always win.
    Mark Latham lays into 'once-in-a-century egomaniac' Kevin Rudd
    Megan Levy, 7 June 2013

    Former federal Labor leader Mark Latham has unleashed a remarkable verbal assault on his former party colleagues, branding Kevin Rudd a "once-in-a-century egomaniac" and likening Joel Fitzgibbon to a "giggling schoolkid effectively peeing on his foot".

    With less than 100 days until the federal election, Latham said the antics of Rudd and Fitzgibbon this week pointed to the absolute disintegration of the modern Labor Party, which he said was ruled by warlords more intent on manoeuvring, plotting and backstabbing rather than representing their constituents to the best of their ability.

    "Rudd knows that all of this is damaging the party. He is a lunatic. I look at him on the TV, Paul, and I've got to say, this bloke's nuts. I look at him and I think, this bloke is certifiable. This bloke is absolute nuts. He is addicted to the media in a way that damages his own interests and hurts the political party that he otherwise claims to love. I mean, this is absolutely crazy."

    "I mean this guy is ... a once-in-a-century egomaniac. You'll never see his like again as long as we live in Australian politics. What the Labor Party does with him, they should have expelled him three years ago, quite frankly."
    Last edited by Capablanca-Fan; 09-06-2013 at 12:17 AM.
    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

  12. #12
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    That Latham spray was one of the more blatant cases of "pot, kettle, black" in Australian political history.

  13. #13
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Some utterly frightful polling for the Government came out in Tasmania today showing a 16% swing, the seats of Bass, Braddon and Lyons all stuffed, Franklin on the wire and chances of winning back Denison relying on a mass preference gangup against Andrew Wilkie.

    My review of the damage here: http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2...-all-over.html

  14. #14
    CC Grandmaster
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    Perhaps there should be a poll about how many seats the Labor Party will win at the election. It is not going to be a lot unless things change dramatically.

  15. #15
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Tomorrow's Neilsen poll in Fairfax press has Labor's primary @ 29%.
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

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