View Poll Results: What will be Carlsen's highest ever *published* FIDE rating?

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  • 2861 - surpassed Feb 13

    0 0%
  • 2862-2879 - surpassed Mar 14

    1 3.33%
  • 2880-2899

    9 30.00%
  • 2900-2919

    12 40.00%
  • 2920-2939

    2 6.67%
  • 2940-2959

    1 3.33%
  • 2960-2979

    0 0%
  • 2980-2999

    2 6.67%
  • 3000-3024

    2 6.67%
  • 3025-3049

    0 0%
  • 3050+

    1 3.33%
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  1. #1
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    How high will Carlsen's FIDE rating go?

    An opportunity to predict where Carlsen's FIDE rating will end up!

  2. #2
    CC Candidate Master
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    Considering he may play to Korchnoi's age and beyond, even into his 90's, at a relatively small increase of, say, 50 points per year for 70 odd years, probably somewhere around 6370.

  3. #3
    CC Grandmaster Redmond Barry's Avatar
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    somewhere around 3083.4
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  4. #4
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    Depends on the inflation. If not for Inflation, won't go above 2900
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  5. #5
    CC Grandmaster Tony Dowden's Avatar
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    I reckon Magnus can crack 2900 relatively soon but I'll be playing God with pawn odds (in my favour of course) before the poll ends
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  6. #6
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    At Carlsen's current age, Kasparov was 2700. If Carlsen improves at the same rate as Kasparov and the rating system inflates (assuming it was doing so) at the same rate then Carlsen could crack 3000.

    I'll be stingy and predict a peak for Carlsen of 2999.4.

  7. #7
    CC Grandmaster Adamski's Avatar
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    I would be amazed if it was more than 2950. Unless further rather large inflation of ratings occurs of course.
    God exists. Short and to the point.

    Secretary of, and regularly arbiter at, Rooty Hill RSL Chess Club. See www.rootyhillchessclub.org.

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  8. #8
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adamski
    I would be amazed if it was more than 2950. Unless further rather large inflation of ratings occurs of course.
    You don't need inflation to be that large. Given that players often peak in actual strength around age 35 and that that's over a decade away, it's quite plausible he'll get 2950 even if there is no inflation at all. Even a few points a year of inflation then puts him close to 3000.

    But all kinds of things may happen. He may have a massive form slump, or give up early, or be overtaken by a new breed of wonderkids who damage his rating. FIDE may well even change the rating system, although progress towards doing so seems pretty slow at present.

  9. #9
    CC International Master Kaitlin's Avatar
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    Cool

    Explain how they get points and then I will guess
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  10. #10
    CC Grandmaster road runner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    You don't need inflation to be that large.
    I think the problem is that it's very hard to maintain and increase a rating when you get very far ahead of your contemporaries. Wins start to gain you little and draws start to cost you a lot.
    meep meep

  11. #11
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by road runner
    I think the problem is that it's very hard to maintain and increase a rating when you get very far ahead of your contemporaries. Wins start to gain you little and draws start to cost you a lot.
    Yes, that's a fair objection. Kasparov was already world #1 most of the time at Carlsen's current age (and with a rating bobbing around the low 2700s) but he didn't have a 50-point lead.

  12. #12
    CC Grandmaster Adamski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaitlin
    Explain how they get points and then I will guess
    You get points for scoting more than your predicted dcore againsr tge field you pkayed. In Magnus' case he can obly really get points from wins wins. Effectivelt he gets more points for beating higher rated players. If you are top dog like Magnus, you will lose points for every draw and loss. Again based on rating gap. Losing to someone well below him could be disastrous. Most of the time his predicted score now will be 80%+but it does deep d on who he plays
    God exists. Short and to the point.

    Secretary of, and regularly arbiter at, Rooty Hill RSL Chess Club. See www.rootyhillchessclub.org.

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  13. #13
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Carlsen's Feb 2013 rating is 2872. I will update at any time that he sets a new career high official rating, but only after it is published.

  14. #14
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Carlsen's March 2014 rating is 2881 so option 2 has bitten the dust.

  15. #15
    CC Grandmaster road runner's Avatar
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    Back to 2832 after peak (so far) of 2889.
    meep meep

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