View Poll Results: Who will win? (This poll asks who you think will win, not who you want to win)

Voters
28. You may not vote on this poll
  • Labor by >30 seats

    0 0%
  • Labor by 16-30 seats

    6 21.43%
  • Labor by 15 or less seats

    18 64.29%
  • No party achieves majority

    1 3.57%
  • Coalition by 15 or less seats

    3 10.71%
  • Coalition by 16-30 seats

    0 0%
  • Coalition by >30 seats

    0 0%
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  1. #1
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Federal Election 2010 [Labor Minority Government Elected]

    Election likely to be called very soon for a date in late August or early September.

    150 House of Reps seats up for grabs.

    This thread is for discussion of the likely result.

    For the purposes of the poll, a majority is that party's total minus the total for all other parties.

    Thus the current Labor majority is 16 seats (83-63-4). Note that five seats currently held by the Coalition will be notionally Labor-held going into this election, based on redistributions, so if there is no swing at all in any seat, Labor will gain five seats.

  2. #2
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Labor will win. By any yardstick reflecting on their performance on the last three years they don't deserve it, but they will win. Labor only ever gets tossed when they've truly fckued it - and that hasn't happened yet (in the people's minds).
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  3. #3
    CC Grandmaster ER's Avatar
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    Julia forever!

    If Julia leads ALP, it will be a relavively easy win!
    If Julia doesn't lead ALP I don't care about politics
    If Julia leads Coalition I 'll vote for the Coalition!
    I voted for a Labor win (16-30 seats)!
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  4. #4
    CC Grandmaster
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    If Labor shut up and stop doing anything, they have excellent chances to win election. If they keep stuffing up at the same rate, opposition might have a chance.
    For private coaching (IM, four times VIC champion) call or SMS 0417519733
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  5. #5
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Sorry, I have restarted the poll as I forgot to make it a public poll (I try to make the who do you think will win polls public and the who do you want to win polls private!)

    If the four people who already voted (three for Labor by 15 or less and one for Labor by 16-30) would like to vote again that would be appreciated.

  6. #6
    CC Grandmaster ER's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Sorry, I have restarted the poll as I forgot to make it a public poll (I try to make the who do you think will win polls public and the who do you want to win polls private!)

    If the four people who already voted (three for Labor by 15 or less and one for Labor by 16-30) would like to vote again that would be appreciated.
    OK I voted again. I had made my intention known in the first place anyway, so I am not editing/removing my original post!
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  7. #7
    CC Grandmaster Ian Murray's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JaK
    OK I voted again. I had made my intention known in the first place anyway, so I am not editing/removing my original post!
    You seem a bit ambivalent about Julia Gillard, JaK. Do you think she's a rough chance?

  8. #8
    CC Grandmaster ER's Avatar
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    oh no! :)

    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Murray
    You seem a bit ambivalent about Julia Gillard, JaK. Do you think she's a rough chance?
    Oh no my ambivalence is more applicable to the politics. My devotion to Julia is unequivocal!
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  9. #9
    CC Grandmaster
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Sorry, I have restarted the poll as I forgot to make it a public poll (I try to make the who do you think will win polls public and the who do you want to win polls private!)

    If the four people who already voted (three for Labor by 15 or less and one for Labor by 16-30) would like to vote again that would be appreciated.
    OK, no problem
    For private coaching (IM, four times VIC champion) call or SMS 0417519733
    Computer tells you what to play. Good coach explains why.

  10. #10
    CC International Master Goughfather's Avatar
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    People might be interested to note that Centrebet has started displaying odds with respect to selected marginal electorates. With respect to the election itself, Centrebet currently has Labor at $1.22 and the Coalition and $4.10, with a line of 12.5 seats against Labor.

    It's not clear to me whether the above odds relate to Labor winning the election in its own right, or simply to gain more seats than the Coalition, which is relevant considering that there are four seats that are currently (and will be) held by independents, as well as one seat that could very well be won by the Greens. If the latter, then Labor may lose office despite being the winning option. Does anyone know?
    "People with guns don't understand. That's why they get guns. Too many misunderstandings." - Jerry Seinfeld, The Little Kicks

  11. #11
    CC Grandmaster Ian Murray's Avatar
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    I see Jono is the only tipster predicting a Coalition win. A brave call from across the Pacific

  12. #12
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goughfather
    It's not clear to me whether the above odds relate to Labor winning the election in its own right, or simply to gain more seats than the Coalition, which is relevant considering that there are four seats that are currently (and will be) held by independents, as well as one seat that could very well be won by the Greens. If the latter, then Labor may lose office despite being the winning option. Does anyone know?
    Yes. The odds offered by Centrebet refer to the party that provides the Prime Minister following the election and are settled at the time of swearing in of that Prime Minister. So let's hypothetically suppose that Labor wins 74 seats, the Coalition 73 and Independents 3, with the Greens missing out. The Independents decide to support a Coalition government and the Coalition takes office. In this case the bets on the Coalition would be paid out as winning bets and the bets on Labor would not be paid out as winning bets, despite the Coalition winning fewer seats in its own right.

    Information on the conditions of Centrebet election bets is found by clicking on a little "i" symbol to the left of the odds.

    I see that they are currently offering a "line" bet at 12.5 seats Labor's advantage. This very closely coincides with my own current expected result, but it is early days yet.

    A comparison of Centrebet and Sportingbet: There are 12 seats that at least one of them thinks will either change hands or is line-ball, and both of them have odds on 11 of those 12. Centrebet projects Labor losing three of its own seats (one to the Greens) and lineball in three others, and projects the Coalition losing three of its own seats and lineball in one other. Sportingbet projects Labor losing four of its own seats (one to the Greens) and lineball in three others (one of these not fielded by Centrebet) and projects the Coalition losing five of its own seats. [EDIT: I missed Greenway which Sportingbet have as a Labor gain and Centrebet aren't fielding on presumably because it's a no-brainer.]

    In total the Centrebet odds point to a net Labor result of approximately no change, and the Sportingbet odds point to a net result of about no change to one gain. It should be slightly worse than that because there are a lot of seats where Labor is slight favourite on either, but at the moment the markets seem to think not many seats will change hands in either direction, a bit like 2001.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 15-07-2010 at 04:11 PM.

  13. #13
    CC Grandmaster
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    In total the Centrebet odds point to a net Labor loss of about one seat, and the Sportingbet odds point to a net result of zero to one lost seat. It might be slightly worse than that because there are a lot of seats where Labor is slight favourite on either, but at the moment the markets seem to think not many seats will change hands in either direction, a bit like 2001.
    Based on pre- or post-redistribution seat allocation?
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  14. #14
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    psephologist joke

    Influenced by the economist joke.

    Q. Who is a psephologist?
    A. Someone who explains after the election why people voted contrary to his prediction before the election.

    Disclaimer:
    It's not aimed at Kevin or anybody else in particular and I mean no offence.
    For private coaching (IM, four times VIC champion) call or SMS 0417519733
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  15. #15
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Igor_Goldenberg
    Based on pre- or post-redistribution seat allocation?
    Based on pre-redistribution allocation. However I made one mistake in the above scores - forgot that Greenway (NSW) has been redistributed to be so pro-Labor that some bookies are not even fielding on it.

    Q. Who is a psephologist?
    A. Someone who explains after the election why people voted contrary to his prediction before the election.
    Good one, but that's setting the bar far too low, because "political journalists" do that too and have to do it much more often.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 15-07-2010 at 04:11 PM.

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