View Poll Results: Pick the result

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  • Anand by four or more games

    0 0%
  • Anand by three games (7-4)

    0 0%
  • Anand by three games (6.5-3.5)

    1 3.85%
  • Anand by two games (7-5)

    4 15.38%
  • Anand by two games (6.5-4.5)

    6 23.08%
  • Anand by one game (6.5-5.5)

    6 23.08%
  • 6-6, Anand wins playoff

    1 3.85%
  • 6-6, Topalov wins playoff

    0 0%
  • Topalov by one game (6.5-5.5)

    4 15.38%
  • Topalov by two games (6.5-4.5)

    3 11.54%
  • Topalov by two games (7-5)

    1 3.85%
  • Topalov by three games (6.5-3.5)

    0 0%
  • Topalov by three games (7-4)

    0 0%
  • Topalov by four or more games

    0 0%
  • The match will be cancelled, greatly deferred or not completed

    0 0%
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  1. #1
    CC Candidate Master
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    FIDE WCC 2010 Anand vs Topalov

    http://www.anand-topalov.com/

    Game 1 - Friday 23 April - 10 pm (Aust EST)
    Last edited by soupman_2; 09-04-2010 at 01:29 PM.

  2. #2
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    I've put a poll on it so people can have a go at picking the outcome.

  3. #3
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Anand is quite heavily favoured by bookmakers:

    Bwin Anand 11/17 Topalov 11/10
    Betfair Anand 33/50 Topalov 53/50

    Interesting given that Topalov is younger and at home and marginally higher rated.

  4. #4
    CC FIDE Master Jesper Norgaard's Avatar
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    Black advantage!?

    I reckon there is at least 70% chance that the match will be decided in the ordinary 12 games, and then I reckon there would be at least 70% chance that the match is decided in the 4 rapid games. If it is still a tie, there will be a set of 5 matches of double-blitz (white+black) with 5 minutes and 3 seconds increment per move. I don't know how high the chance is here that any of the 5 matches decides the winner, but it must be even higher than 70%. If there is still a tie, then the event will be decided in the dreaded Armageddon game.

    My gut feeling is that there is only 1%-2% probability that the Armageddon game will take place. Black receives 4 minutes, and White 5 minutes. If it's a draw, then Black wins. No increment is present until move 61 when each player receives 3 seconds per move. In my opinion this favors black hugely, since both players have a very good defence, so a draw is not too unlikely especially since black will be eager to clinch it (perpetual check or threat, sacrifice from superior position to non-losing ending etc.). I would call this close to a flip of a coin, because the black player has too much advantage.

    Are the Armageddon rules fair? I sort of liked the bidding-procedure in the US championship where each player could bid on how many minutes (less) they would accept with black, e.g. 5-4, 5-3, 6-3 etc. this is just my example not an accurate description of the US ch. rules.

  5. #5
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jesper Norgaard
    My gut feeling is that there is only 1%-2% probability that the Armageddon game will take place.
    I think it could be an even lower probability than that, even given the evenness of the two players' playing strengths. In the World Cup using the same tiebreak system 55 matches made it to the rapid stage, but if my calculations are correct then only one of those 55 made it past the second blitz match, and that was Akobian-Tregubov, decided in the fifth blitz match.

    Are the Armageddon rules fair? I sort of liked the bidding-procedure in the US championship where each player could bid on how many minutes (less) they would accept with black, e.g. 5-4, 5-3, 6-3 etc. this is just my example not an accurate description of the US ch. rules.
    The system in the Krush-Zatonskih incident in 2008 was that a player (determined by coin toss) selected the time control for the Armageddon game and then the opponent got to choose which colour they would take on those terms. Not sure if they kept it for 2009 or changed it.

    Such systems are often "fairer" but they do introduce an element of non-chess skill which in my view is a strong argument against them.

  6. #6
    CC Grandmaster ER's Avatar
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    All systems devised to decide World Championship Matches, apart from the traditional way are crappy and should be abolished!
    ACF 3118316
    FIDE 3201457

  7. #7
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    www.susanpolgar.blogspot.com and www.chessbase.com can not agree.

    Susan's site already has Anand in Sofia and checked into his hotel. Chessbase has him not in Bulgaria at all.

    Very strange indeed.

  8. #8
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JaK
    All systems devised to decide World Championship Matches, apart from the traditional way are crappy and should be abolished!
    Which "traditional way" was that? There were several different match formats used before the FIDE-Kasparov split. If it was the system of a long match to a set number of games where in the case of a tie the champion retains, I also preferred that system over the present. The problem is that with the old style 24 game matches supposedly being no longer viable (for reasons not entirely clear to me), in the shorter 12-game matches, draw odds to the champion gives the champion too great an advantage.

  9. #9
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Garvinator
    www.susanpolgar.blogspot.com and www.chessbase.com can not agree.

    Susan's site already has Anand in Sofia and checked into his hotel. Chessbase has him not in Bulgaria at all.
    Polgar's site is basing its reporting on a Times of India item that is dated 18 April. The Chessbase item is based 17 April quoting matter published on 18 April but possibly written earlier. It could be that a way was found for Anand to make the journey in the intervening time, or the Times of India report could be wrong, or there could be some silly business going on.

    The speed of updating of news on Chessbase has been unimpressive in recent years. They are often a whole day out of date on major event news, sometimes two. Used to be better than that.

  10. #10
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Here is the latest. http://susanpolgar.blogspot.com/2010...tponement.html

    I can not seem to be able to post the whole link as I am getting a 404 error.

  11. #11
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    How odd. It sounds like Anand is indeed stranded and the info that the organisers have from the hotel is simply wrong.

  12. #12
    CC FIDE Master Jesper Norgaard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    How odd. It sounds like Anand is indeed stranded and the info that the organisers have from the hotel is simply wrong.
    To my understanding Anand's second Schmitt picked up all keys to the Anand quarters and they hotel organisers took that to mean that Anand was in town too but had not appeared a bit of the Hans Christian Andersen story how 3 feathers became 10 chicken

    In my opinion if Anand loses days in his travel program to Bulgaria because (much of) European air space is sealed off, it would be reasonable to grant him those days extra and suspend the match. Whether that is 1, 2, 5 days we can't tell yet. But official silence could be because until he is actually in Sofia, we can't measure how much time he lost on traveling. Topa has a natural advantage in this respect by living in the country, not having to travel as much, so it would be fair to try and wipe all "Toiletgate" suspicions off the board by agreeing on this.

    Is Danailov the devil? Well, we will see, but the Icelandic ashes surely came at an opportune time to disturb the opponent to the maximum. Maybe he sold his soul to the devil for a volcano outbreak? If he tries to take advantage of this instead of agreeing to a reasonable suspension, all the rumors would have been true about his bias. I am afraid that FIDE's soul has already been sold for 3 million

  13. #13
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Latest I have seen is http://www.chessdom.com/topalov-anan...d-topalov-2010 :

    The latest news regarding the situation around the World Chess Championship is that Viswanathan Anand is traveling to Sofia. The organizing committee issued several staments and opinions earlier this afternoon, and after meeting with FIDE they announced, "Our latest information is that Anand is traveling to Sofia. We will have official statement later tonight or tomorrow." No more information was shared, nor what type of vehicle Anand is using to get to the venue.

  14. #14
    CC Grandmaster ER's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KB
    Which "traditional way" was that?
    The 24 game match format with the Champion retaining the crown in case of a 12 all tie but with a proviso of a return 12 game match within the next 6 months.

    If that ends as a tie too, then the World Champion retains the title and the challenger is guaranteed a place in the quarter or semi-finals of the next candidates series.

    The candidates could be decided by a series of elimination as in Football World Cup format
    ACF 3118316
    FIDE 3201457

  15. #15
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JaK
    The 24 game match format with the Champion retaining the crown in case of a 12 all tie but with a proviso of a return 12 game match within the next 6 months.
    As far as I can determine the 24-game format with champion retaining if 12-12 was used from 1951 to 1972 and from 1985 to 1993 (the last being Kasparov-Short outside FIDE auspices). In between that, the two Karpov-Korchnoi matches and the aborted Kasparov-Karpov epic were first to six wins.

    There were various arrangements concerning rematch rights if the champion was defeated. I don't know offhand whether any of the 24-game matches had an explicit provision for what happened if there was a rematch and the result of the rematch was 12-12 and would be interested in any information about that.

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