View Poll Results: Who will win? (This poll asks who will win, not who do you want to win)

Voters
7. You may not vote on this poll
  • Tories (400+ seats)

    2 28.57%
  • Tories (350-399 seats)

    1 14.29%
  • Tories (326-349 seats)

    2 28.57%
  • No majority, Tories govern

    0 0%
  • No majority, Labour governs

    2 28.57%
  • Labour majority

    0 0%
  • Someone else governs

    0 0%
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  1. #31
    CC Grandmaster
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    Quote Originally Posted by Garvinator
    Not necessarily so. I think it more runs in compulsory roll marking attendance elections that a high early voter turnout spells trouble for the government if widespread.
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  2. #32
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    Current prediciton (no idea how accurate) shows Conservative on 320, Labour on 213 and LB on 82. No idea how close to each other the last two, but combined they have only 295.
    What is the position of the other parties holding 35 seats? Are they likely to align with Conservatives or Labour?
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  3. #33
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    http://www.guardian.co.uk/

    Live play by play.
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  4. #34
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Igor_Goldenberg
    Current prediciton (no idea how accurate) shows Conservative on 320, Labour on 213 and LB on 82. No idea how close to each other the last two, but combined they have only 295.
    What is the position of the other parties holding 35 seats? Are they likely to align with Conservatives or Labour?
    That is not a projection based on seat results but a projection based on bookie odds. The Lib Dems will not get 82, the Tories probably won't get 320, and 236 have been declared for Labour already.

    The Tories are currently 40 short of majority with 46 to be declared. Of these 46, only eleven were theirs before the election. I don't know how many of the rest are realistic targets but on patterns thus far they might get 6-10 of the rest.

    So they might get, say, 305.

    The broad "others" (everyone but the Tories, Labour and LibDems) already have 27 seats and will probably get a few more. Sinn Fein who have 4 seats and will probably get 5 abstein from taking their seats so any coalition with 323 seats is able to govern.

    What we're looking at here is a situation where either the Tories or Labour plus the LibDems would need the support of multiple small parties to govern. Most of the smaller parties are left-leaning or centrist.

    Tories don't like coalitions much whereas Labour will probably do anything to keep power. So unless the Tories pick up a bit (they have so far done just a teensy bit less well than I expected) we could see Brown stay with a multi-party anti-Tory coalition that will probably be a complete shambles.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 07-05-2010 at 05:38 PM.

  5. #35
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Igor_Goldenberg
    The logical conclusion from that: compulsory voting favours the incumbent.
    I am not sure in the latter, so doubt the former.
    The traditional view is that optional voting favours conservatives but in my opinion based on council elections it also favours the Greens. Parties which get the vote by positive enthusiasm or a sense of duty do well under voluntary voting. Parties which get the vote by default because their voters do not like the alternatives do badly. Also because disorganised people are financially disadvantaged, the financially disadvantaged (who tend to vote Left) are more likely to fail to get their act together under voluntary voting.

  6. #36
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    A party the Tories certainly can deal with is the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland. A bit like the DLP here, this party is socially religious-reactionary but not especially right-wing on economic issues. The DUP have won eight seats so the target for the Tories to do a deal with just them is 315.

    Current score 290 for the Tories with 34 seats remaining, of which 11 are already theirs. Some seats don't do counting til the following day and one has been postponed because of the death of a candidate.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    ...but not especially right-wing on economic issues. ...
    Is there any party in UK that is right-wing on economic issues?
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  8. #38
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Igor_Goldenberg
    Is there any party in UK that is right-wing on economic issues?
    The UKIP perhaps. Political Compass also thinks the Tories are but I am not quite sure they're that far right.

    Current projections are Tories about 306 (nine short of alliance with DUP) and Labor + LibDem about 316 combined (seven short of governing alliance with each other).

  9. #39
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    If we could just excise Scotland, Bristol (where I was born), the dirty working class and hopelessly uneducated Manchester, Birmingham, Liverpool and undustrial north-east (where my brother was born and I lived for 5 years), The Tories would romp it! I mean these lefties can't string two thoughts together, let alone two words. I'm not sure their being given permission to vote is a good idea
    Last edited by Basil; 07-05-2010 at 09:40 PM.
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  10. #40
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Many in Scotland would rather like Scotland to be excised.

    Still a trickle of seats being confirmed. 24 plus one postponed to go. Tories 294.

  11. #41
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    13 to go + 1 postponed. Tories 299 Lab/LibDem 309 combined

    Interesting stuff going on in one Northern Ireland seat where the result is a handful of votes between Sinn Fein and an independent "unionist" candidate and it is now being counted for the fourth time.

    Also claims of electoral-roll stacking via false enrolment in some London seats.

  12. #42
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    Also claims of electoral-roll stacking via false enrolment in some London seats.
    From the amount of times these type of claims are made in elections across the world I am starting to think it is written into the rules of elections that all sides are allowed one opportunity to claim seats they are losing are stacked

  13. #43
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Garvinator
    From the amount of times these type of claims are made in elections across the world I am starting to think it is written into the rules of elections that all sides are allowed one opportunity to claim seats they are losing are stacked
    The interesting thing is that in this case the claims have been made by parties that have been (or were about to be) thrashed, rather than in marginals. The usual stuff where sixteen Bangladeshis are enrolled in an undersized bedsit and nobody living there has heard of any of them, that sort of thing.

    When votes are really close parties with these kinds of complaints can file a dispute of return, although unless they can demonstrate reason to believe the irregularity swung the vote then they don't tend to get too much joy.

  14. #44
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Cameron speaking now, talking up dealing with LibDems, probably a coalition rather than just a confidence and supply agreement.

    This might be best for the LibDems too rather than a coalition where they are just one player.

  15. #45
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    Gordon Brown has fallen on his sword as Labour leader as an attempt to help Labour make a deal with the Lib Democrats and hang onto power. Both sides seem to be falling over themselves in making attempts to win Lib Dem support.
    Scott

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