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  1. #16
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Polls following the second debate showed that the three leaders were considered to have performed pretty evenly with Clegg and Cameron a little bit ahead of Brown.

  2. #17
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Gordon Brown has committed a classic campaign gaffe after getting into a discussion with a pesky constituent (a disillusioned lifelong Labour voter) who had heckled him. He was then advised by his staff to have a chat with her and during the chat she complained about immigration into the country from Eastern Europe. As he was driven away he fumed about the exchange and called her a "bigoted woman" but alas for him his radio mic was still on and he has had to apologise and grovel in person.

    My comment about this is that Brown's explanation of his comments is unconvincing. He claims that he was frustrated by her asking a question about immigration and him not being able to answer. But he did actually try to answer her question by saying that there is plenty of migration in the opposite direction (whether this is actually true or not) and so I really don't think his excuse washes. More likely he just found her annoying and assumed from the immigration comment that she was probably a racist - and that's not a line of thinking he would want voters to know that he adhered to.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 29-04-2010 at 05:03 PM.

  3. #18
    Reader in Slood Dynamics Rincewind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham
    As he was driven away he fumed about the exchange and called her a "bigoted woman" but alas for him his radio mic was still on and he has had to apologise and grovel in person.
    Best laugh I've had in ages hearing this story on the TV this morning.
    So einfach wie möglich, aber nicht einfacher - Albert Einstein

  4. #19
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    According to polls, Cameron had a fairly good win in the third debate with Clegg second and Brown as always third.

    The polls are also looking pretty much that way: the Lib/Dem surge refusing to die off.

  5. #20
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Most of the projections are now showing the Tories not far short of outright victory, typically between 10-35 seats short. This could well harden into a perception that the Tories can win outright while the other parties cannot, which may assist them.

    A possibility is the Tories falling very marginally short and being able to govern with support from minor parties. None of the current projections are showing Labour able to govern with only Lib/Dem support.

    Some bookmakers now show Tory majority favourite ahead of a hung parliament. This has become the case just in the last two days.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 03-05-2010 at 02:05 AM.

  6. #21
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Nick Clegg has sent out confusing noises about what he will do if there is a hung parliament. The traditional Lib Dems line has been that they will not deal unless the party they are dealing with supports a PR electoral system. Now he is saying that electoral reform is not a precondition of talks with the Tories. The Tories are still saying they don't want to deal with him. My view is that Clegg has messed up the delicate art of third-party positioning in a pre-election campaign and the LibDem vote will not be as high as has been suspected.

    There is a very interesting YouGov poll out in this light which shows 35 Tory, 30 Labor, 24 LDP. Since the Clegg surge following the first debate there have been very few polls with Labor significantly in front of the LDP, but it makes sense: the whole idea that as the election approaches support washes out of the third party and goes back to the incumbent government is not an uncommon thing to happen. It will be interesting to see if any of the final polls out support this further.

    I still think this one is extremely difficult to predict since any of a Tory majority, a Tory minority and a Labour minority government are all possible.

    Note that polls open around 4 pm our time tomorrow. I will close the poll here around that time if online.

  7. #22
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    This is the most important article I’ve ever written — and loyal Conservative voters will hate me for it
    Peter Hitchens
    4 May 2010

    ...

    Please do not vote Tory. It will have the opposite result to the one you intend.
    I don’t care who else you vote for (apart from the BNP, which no decent person can support).

    ...

    But I beg and plead with you not to fall for the shimmering, greasy, cynical fraud which is the Cameron project. You will hate yourself for it in time if you do.

    ...

    You may want to ‘Get Gordon Brown out’. So do I. And he’s done for anyway.

    But do you really want to put in a man who agrees with Gordon Brown on almost every major issue, and is so confident of his liberalism that he doesn’t even try to keep it secret?

    ...

    He is truly what he once said he was — the Heir to Blair.

    If he wins, he will — as the first Tory leader to win an Election in 18 years — have the power to crush all his critics in the Tory Party.

    He will be able to say that political correctness, green zealotry, a pro-EU position and a willingness to spend as much as Labour on the NHS have won the day.

    He will claim (falsely) that ‘Right-wing’ policies lost the last three Elections.

    Those Tory MPs who agree with you and me will be cowed and silenced for good. The power will lie with the A-list smart set, modish, rich metropolitan liberals hungry for office at all costs who would have been (and who in the case of one of the older ones actually was) in New Labour 13 years ago.

    And then where will you have to turn for help as the PC, pro-EU bulldozer trundles across our landscape destroying what is good and familiar and replacing it with a country whose inhabitants increasingly cannot recognise it as their own?
    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

  8. #23
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Well the Tories must have moved their policies a long way towards the centre because when I spent half an hour or so having my best guess at the very detailed selector thingy at http://www.myvoteadvisor.com it ranked the Tories as the closest match to my views, one point ahead of the Greens and LibDems and seven points ahead of Labour with UKIP and BNP naturally well behind. Should have done the Scottish one to put the SNP in the mix as well.



    This from someone who would be very reluctant to vote Liberal until said party's current leader was exiled to a very small rock, so the Tories must have really sold out and the assessment of them as Blair Mark II is probably spot on (Blair was also a sellout). That said many of Hitchens' complaints make the Tories look good since Hitchens is clearly coming from a rather hardline reactionary position.

    I really don't have a clue about this one - tipping the Electoral College vote for US President was a piece of cake compared to this mess - but I'm tipping the Tories to fall marginally short of an absolute majority but still be in a position to govern. From what I have seen of the final polling, and considering the possibility that there is still a point or so of anti-Tory polling error, there is a serious chance (40+% IMO) they will do better and get the outright win.
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 06-05-2010 at 03:49 PM.

  9. #24
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    The giant exit poll (which performed woefully in 1992 and 1997 but very well in 2005 after many improvements) is set for release at 6 am our time tomorrow; final seat results will trickle in through the middle of the day with most results known by around midday or a bit after.

  10. #25
    CC Grandmaster arosar's Avatar
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    Couple of observations:

    - Hundreds of voters were apparently turned away because they'd missed the 10PM deadline. I'm like, shit, how is this even allowed to happen in a supposed democracy?

    - Secondly, voter turnout was massive! That is despite the fact voting is not compulsory. It demonstrates that if you excite the people and give them a reason, they'll turn up.

    AR

  11. #26
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by arosar
    - Hundreds of voters were apparently turned away because they'd missed the 10PM deadline. I'm like, shit, how is this even allowed to happen in a supposed democracy?
    There does have to be a poll closing time. That being said, I do think polls should be open for the 24 hours of the polling day, so as many people get a chance to vote as possible.
    - Secondly, voter turnout was massive! That is despite the fact voting is not compulsory. It demonstrates that if you excite the people and give them a reason, they'll turn up.
    In choose if you want to vote countries, a high voter turnout usually means more people going to vote for the opposition. When people are happy with the government of the day, not as many people turn out to vote.

    So a high voter turnout usually spells trouble for the government as a lot more people are motivated enough to go to the polls, usually meaning that they are pissed off enough to go to the polls.

  12. #27
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by arosar
    Couple of observations:

    - Hundreds of voters were apparently turned away because they'd missed the 10PM deadline. I'm like, shit, how is this even allowed to happen in a supposed democracy?
    Polls were open for 15 hours on the day which is much longer than here. That said, if voters were turned away because of queueing as opposed to rank disorganisation then that is something that needs looking at. [EDIT: There were turnaways for queueing, I have seen footage of this.]

    - Secondly, voter turnout was massive! That is despite the fact voting is not compulsory. It demonstrates that if you excite the people and give them a reason, they'll turn up.
    Absolutely; and this is more reason why compulsory voting* is stupid as well as illiberal. It encourages dull politics, especially on the Labor side, because the parties do not have to compete with the can't-be-bothered factor.

    * Pedant-proofing: If anyone prefers to call it compulsory booth attendance, that's fine.

    Anyway according to the exit poll the Tories were set to be about 20 short of a majority and the LibDems look to be gaining little or nothing (which is no great surprise to me if it ends up that way, see my post of 5 May.)
    Last edited by Kevin Bonham; 07-05-2010 at 12:34 PM.

  13. #28
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Underpants
    Put down the glasses!
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  14. #29
    CC Grandmaster
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    Quote Originally Posted by Garvinator
    So a high voter turnout usually spells trouble for the government as a lot more people are motivated enough to go to the polls, usually meaning that they are pissed off enough to go to the polls.
    The logical conclusion from that: compulsory voting favours the incumbent.
    I am not sure in the latter, so doubt the former.
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  15. #30
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Igor_Goldenberg
    The logical conclusion from that: compulsory voting favours the incumbent.
    Not necessarily so. I think it more runs in compulsory roll marking attendance elections that a high early voter turnout spells trouble for the government if widespread.

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