View Poll Results: What will be the result of the 2019 Election?

Voters
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  • Big Conservative majority (400+ seats)

    1 33.33%
  • Medium Conservative majority (350-399 seats) - correct (364-5)

    0 0%
  • Small Conservative majority (<350 seats)

    1 33.33%
  • No majority; Conservatives govern

    0 0%
  • No majority: Labour governs

    0 0%
  • Small Labour majority (<350 seats)

    0 0%
  • Medium Labour majority (350-399 seats)

    0 0%
  • Big Labour majority (400+ seats)

    0 0%
  • Other

    1 33.33%
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  1. #646
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adamski View Post
    I found the NZL MMP quasi-proportional representation system far too complex. So did most voters I knew there.
    It's not the complexity I have a problem with, although too many voters still don't realize that the party vote is much more important than the individual vote. The main problem is that you don't know what coalitions will be formed until after the elections. Arguably, the more conservative voters for Winston Peters' mob didn't expect him to jump in bed with Labour. Under FPP, and to some extent PV, the disparate strands have already formed coalitions into the two major parties, so you know the coalitions in advance.
    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

  2. #647
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    I find quite a few people in Australian political discussions wish we had MMP because it is more proportional, and would also support it for the UK for the same reason, but apart from being vaguely proportional I think it is a very flawed system. It's only proportional for parties that get over the threshhold, so if you support a party that definitely won't get over the threshhold then voting for them as a party vote is a wasted vote (which makes it hard for new parties to build votes). If your party might or might not get over the threshhold then you have a difficult tactical decision about whether to vote for them or to cast your party vote for a less preferred party - this is the same as the tactical voting problem in FPP and voters shouldn't have to make such decisions. The threshhold is quite high, making it possible to get distorted results where the wrong side wins because a couple of flank parties on the other side missed the threshhold. The electorate vote is a bit of a joke because in some cases both the candidates are list candidates and will win anyway, but the bigger problem with it is that parties can distort proportionality by throwing a seat to some stooge party which has no support outside one electorate. Thus in one case United Future had a share of the balance of power off 0.22% of the national vote.

  3. #648
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capablanca-Fan View Post
    ... So much for Brexit disaster! UK economy set to TROUNCE eurozone, IMF report says ...
    The findings of two studies published by the the body show the UK is on track for two years of growth and is anticipated to outperform Germany, France and Italy. The economy is expected to expand by 1.4 percent this year and by 1.5 percent in 2021, it said. It marks an optimistic outlook for the UK’s post-Brexit future after last year’s growth was recorded at 1.3 percent. But the predictions are based on the condition that an orderly Brexit will take place on January 31 and trade talks with Brussels will play out well. …
    Those predictions show that the UK will grow at the same rate as it is currently growing - wow! And even that depends on an orderly Brexit and successful trade talks. Don't forget that there is still a 12 month transition period, during which the UK effectively remains in the EU.

  4. #649
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    I find quite a few people in Australian political discussions wish we had MMP because it is more proportional, and would also support it for the UK for the same reason, but apart from being vaguely proportional I think it is a very flawed system. ...
    I never understood why NZ didn't adopt preferential voting. MMP appears to be no less complicated, and obviously doesn't have the advantages of pure proportional voting.

  5. #650
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Byrom View Post
    Those predictions show that the UK will grow at the same rate as it is currently growing - wow! And even that depends on an orderly Brexit and successful trade talks. Don't forget that there is still a 12 month transition period, during which the UK effectively remains in the EU.
    Even if you are right, this is far from the economic catastrophe that the Remainder Eurosuckups bleated was going to happen.
    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

  6. #651
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Byrom View Post
    I never understood why NZ didn't adopt preferential voting.
    Me neither. I suppose Kiwis aren't as rational as Aussies. I have lived for extended periods under FPP, MMP, and PV, and I think PV is the best of the three.

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Byrom View Post
    MMP appears to be no less complicated, and obviously doesn't have the advantages of pure proportional voting.
    I think it's more complicated. I agree with all of KB's criticisms of MMP. Moreover, MMP has the serious flaw that it is not preferential even in the broader sense of any system that allows a ranked choice (what Australians call PV is only one type of preferential voting system).
    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

  7. #652
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    The Labour leadership election is decided by a preferential vote, even though the party is (presumably) opposed to using it in general elections.

  8. #653
    CC Grandmaster Adamski's Avatar
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    Lots of good point's in the last day. I also favour true preferential voting.
    God exists. Short and to the point.

    Secretary of, and regularly arbiter at, Rooty Hill RSL Chess Club. See www.rootyhillchessclub.org.

    Psephological insight. "Controversial will only lose you votes. Courageous will lose you the election." Sir Humphrey Appleby on Yes Minister.

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  9. #654
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adamski View Post
    Lots of good point's in the last day. I also favour true preferential voting.
    What do you mean by 'true preferential voting'?

  10. #655
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Garvinator View Post
    What do you mean by 'true preferential voting'?
    I presume the Aussie type, which in some places is called "Instant Runoff Voting" or "Ranked Choice Voting".
    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

  11. #656
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    The UK leaves the Eurinal!

    Brexit Day: Britain to leave EU, marking end to years-long fight to deliver on 2016 vote
    Adam Shaw | Fox News

    Britain on Friday will formally leave the European Union, ending an intense nearly four years of political fighting over Brexit since Brits voted to leave the bloc that has consumed British politics and saw the ouster of two prime ministers.

    Britain will formally leave at 11 p.m. U.K. time (6 p.m. ET) and Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to address the public about an hour before the departure time. Elsewhere throughout the country, the day will be marked by celebrations and some mourning from those opposed to the move. But in typically British fashion, the celebrations are expected to be muted.

    Some of those celebrations have already occurred. MEP Nigel Farage and fellow members of the Brexit Party waved British flags on Wednesday in the E.U. Parliament chamber, while pro-Remain MEPs were seen mourning the coming departure.

    The 2016 vote to leave the E.U. in a one-off referendum sent shockwaves throughout the globe and is frequently cited as a groundbreaking populist moment that previewed President Trump's victory months later in the U.S. general election.

    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

  12. #657
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    Your extract from that article fails to mention another effect of Brexit - other groups in Europe who were campaigning to leave the EU have gone very quiet after realising what a bad idea Brexit has been.

  13. #658
    CC Grandmaster Ian Murray's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capablanca-Fan View Post
    Brexit Day: Britain to leave EU, marking end to years-long fight to deliver on 2016 vote
    With more of a whimper than a bang

  14. #659
    CC Grandmaster Desmond's Avatar
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    Megxit was rather more interesting.
    So what's your excuse? To run like the devil's chasing you.

    See you in another life, brotha.

  15. #660
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ian Murray View Post
    With more of a whimper than a bang
    I thought Farage and his colleagues had fun in that meeting. That humourless bossy Irish bint is precisely the reason that the UK has had a gutsfill of being ordered around by Eurocratic nobodies.
    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

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