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  1. #526
    CC Grandmaster Garvinator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    Somehow there is both UKIP and a Brexit Party. I'm rather confused by all this.
    My understanding of why Nigel Farage has quit UKIP and started Brexit Party is a little bit different to Blunderbuss, but they are probably connected.

    After Leave won the Referendum in 2016 and then after both major parties in 2017 at the General Election said that they would commit to carry out the results of the Referendum, which was for the UK to leave the EU (called Brexit), Nigel Farage mainly believed his job in the UK had been done, except for being able to tell the EU parliament how wrong they had been about the Brexit result.

    But as Nigel Farage left the UKIP party, it was taken over by others whose agendas did not follow the original principles that Nigel Farage and his supporters had founded UKIP on, which was to get UK completely out of the EU. That meant out of the Single market, European Court of Justice and Customs Union. And as more and more the new version of UKIP took shape, Nigel Farage and his supporters realised that the fight to keep the referendum result enacted 'remained' (pun intended).

    And so with no option to go back to UKIP, Nigel had to set up another party, now called Brexit Party.

    And there you have it.

    The Tories have also started polling very badly. Surprised it has taken so long.
    I am surprised that almost all sides numbers are not in the toilet quite frankly.

  2. #527
    CC Candidate Master Blunderbuss's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Garvinator View Post
    ...And so with no option to go back to UKIP, Nigel had to set up another party, now called Brexit Party.

    And there you have it.
    For me the best way to understand the new Brexit party is to read Marina Hyde article here: https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...meback-heroics

    Summary - "what Nigel and co still seem to be saying with their “respectable vehicle” shtick is: appease us to keep the worse lot out."

  3. #528
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    Quote Originally Posted by Garvinator View Post
    ... After Leave won the Referendum in 2016 and then after both major parties in 2017 at the General Election said that they would commit to carry out the results of the Referendum, which was for the UK to leave the EU (called Brexit), Nigel Farage mainly believed his job in the UK had been done, except for being able to tell the EU parliament how wrong they had been about the Brexit result. But as Nigel Farage left the UKIP party, it was taken over by others whose agendas did not follow the original principles that Nigel Farage and his supporters had founded UKIP on, which was to get UK completely out of the EU. That meant out of the Single market, European Court of Justice and Customs Union. And as more and more the new version of UKIP took shape, Nigel Farage and his supporters realised that the fight to keep the referendum result enacted 'remained' (pun intended). ...
    Whether people voting for Leave were actually voting to leave the Single Market is of course one of the issues that makes Brexit such a mess. During the campaign, people on both sides made conflicting claims. For example:
    For example, Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan said during an interview in 2015 that: "To repeat, absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market". That is a different stance compared to the main claims of Leave campaigners, and Mr Hannan’s wording isn’t consistent across the interview itself either. Earlier on, he said "absolutely nobody is suggesting we would give up our position in the free market in Europe". Again, because of this loose use of terminology, it’s easy to see why people would have taken different messages away after seeing this interview. On one reading, this is another case of talking about having a continued trading relationship with the EU after Brexit, as distinct from being a member of the single market. There are also examples of leave campaigners claiming the UK could adopt a position similar to Norway—which is still part of the single market while not being an EU member. Arron Banks, a founder of the Leave.EU campaign tweeted in November 2015 “Increasingly the Norway option looks the best for the UK”.

    It’s fair to say that these examples are the exception rather than the rule when it comes to claims about the single market, but it makes the case again that the discussion before the referendum wasn’t entirely consistent on the kind of relationship the UK could have with the EU after leaving.

    Quote Originally Posted by Garvinator View Post
    ... I am surprised that almost all sides numbers are not in the toilet quite frankly.
    The Conservatives have always been more divided over Europe than Labour, and they have the misfortune of currently being in government.

  4. #529
    CC Candidate Master Blunderbuss's Avatar
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  5. #530
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    Massive swings to the pro-Remain Liberal Democrats and against the pro-Brexit Conservatives in local elections.

  6. #531

  7. #532
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Byrom View Post
    Massive swings to the pro-Remain Liberal Democrats and against the pro-Brexit Conservatives in local elections.
    You mean, the Conservative remainers in league with arch-remainer Theresa May who have sabotaged an orderly pullout from the clutches of unelected EU bureaucrats?
    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

  8. #533
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capablanca-Fan View Post
    You mean, the Conservative remainers in league with arch-remainer Theresa May who have sabotaged an orderly pullout from the clutches of unelected EU bureaucrats?
    I'm still waiting for your solution to the Irish border problem

  9. #534
    CC Grandmaster Capablanca-Fan's Avatar
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    A Hard Sell
    by Mark Steyn
    Steyn on Britain, 4 May 2019

    Anyone who has had any truck with UK Tories over the decades knows that large numbers of them are devious, duplicitous, slimy, oleaginous, frankly repellent and utterly treacherous. But it didn't matter because, when all else failed, their selling point was competence. After less than three years of Theresa May they're now in the difficult position of having to market a not obviously winning combination of incompetence-and-betrayal.

    Thursday's local elections in England were the first test of this new strategy. The Conservative Party lost over 1,300 seats. To Nigel Farage's Brexit Party? No. His month-old party was not on the ballot. To Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party? No. Labour managed to lose seats itself, and in fact its share of the vote was no higher than the Tories - 28 per cent. In effect, Theresa May managed to lose to no one. If she were facing no one on Centre Court at Wimbledon, she would still get totaled in straight sets.

    The custom among metropolitan party bigwigs after a clobbering in the local or Euro votes is to say that none of these other elections matter a jot or tittle. They're just "protest votes". All that counts is the national election for the national parliament at Westminster - because that's when voters are deciding who actually governs the country. This time round there are two problems with that traditional analysis: First, the central issue for Tory electors is the party's inability to govern, in the sense of being able to effect the most consequential issue before it. And secondly this month's European elections are a literal protest vote, pure and simple. The UK wasn't even supposed to be participating, because it had announced its departure from the EU would occur in March 2019. But March came and went, and the Eurocrats, who are enjoying the implosion of Britain's reputation as a mature stable democracy, agreed to let the fainthearted secessionist stay in the club for another six months. So whichever Britons are elected to the European Parliament on May 23rd will theoretically be there not to participate in the business of the EU, but just to fill the seats until - on its fifth, seventh, twelfth, thirty-ninth vote at Westminster - Mrs May's ersatz "withdrawal agreement" finally passes the House of Commons.
    “The destructive capacity of the individual, however vicious, is small; of the state, however well-intentioned, almost limitless. Expand the state and that destructive capacity necessarily expands, too, pari passu.”—Paul Johnson, Modern Times, 1983.

  10. #535
    CC Candidate Master Blunderbuss's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capablanca-Fan View Post
    .. Theresa May managed to lose to no one.
    That's a bit harsh - calling the Lib Dems 'no one', also the Greens did well apparently!

  11. #536
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    Now seeing lots of fun polls such as this one:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 27% (-6)
    BREX: 20% (+6)
    CON: 19% (-4)
    LDEM: 14% (+7)
    CHUK: 7% (-2)
    GRN: 5% (+2)
    UKIP: 3% (-2)

    via @ComRes, 09 May
    Chgs. w/ 16 Apr

  12. #537
    CC Candidate Master Blunderbuss's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevin Bonham View Post
    Now seeing lots of fun polls such as this one:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 27% (-6)
    BREX: 20% (+6)
    CON: 19% (-4)
    LDEM: 14% (+7)
    CHUK: 7% (-2)
    GRN: 5% (+2)
    UKIP: 3% (-2)

    via @ComRes, 09 May
    Chgs. w/ 16 Apr

    Voters in the UK see the European elections as a chance for a ‘free hit’ and because unlike general elections they use a system of proportional representation, it not unusual for fringe parties to prosper. For example, here is the 2014 results from European elections: How the UK is gearing up for likelihood of polls

    euro2014.JPG

  13. #538
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    The major party polling for the European elections specifically is even worse for the majors than the one I posted above, especially the Tories.

    Apparently this free-swing effect in the European elections contaminates the national polls too, but that only goes so far.

  14. #539
    CC Candidate Master Blunderbuss's Avatar
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    Just received my postal vote for the European Parliament for the East Midlands. I have a choice of 8 parties and one independent.

    1 Change UK - The Independent Group
    2 Conservative and Unionist Party
    3 Green Party
    4 Independent Network
    5 Labour Party
    6 Liberal Democrat’s
    7 The Brexit Party
    8 UK Independence Party (UKIP)
    And the Independent - Rood , Simon Louis

    Each party has 5 names listed 1 to 5 but boringly all I can do is select one Party from the list of nine and marked it with a cross. No voting below the line. So I can’t put Annunziata Mary Rees-Mogg (listed 1 under the Brexit Party) last, like I could in a below the line Oz senate vote

  15. #540
    Monster of the deep Kevin Bonham's Avatar
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    New push to throw May under the bus (would they really take her down on the floor of Parliament?). Also more rumours she's about to resign. And more ridiculously bad polling.

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