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  1. #1
    CC Grandmaster Spiny Norman's Avatar
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    Hackers hit Hadley CRU

    For those who don't yet know, a story is doing the rounds that hackers have hit the University of East Anglia (UK) and have made off with a large amount of apparently rather embarrassing emails and other documentation relating to the Hadley Climate Research Unit.

    The global warming 'debate' is about to move up another notch. If provenance is established and the emails and other documentation have not been doctored, it may prove to be a smoking gun that proves that at least one major global warming research facility systematically doctored their results.

    The timing of this is critical, just before Copenhagen. Either it is a very, very elaborate hoax, or someone has blown the whistle on an even more elaborate deception.

    And yes, I have just spent the past few hours looking at the released documents myself. They *appear* genuine. I remain skeptical however and will wait to see what twists this story will now take.
    Last edited by Spiny Norman; 21-11-2009 at 06:31 AM.
    “As you perhaps know, I haven't always been a Christian. I didn't go to religion to make me happy. I always knew a bottle of port would do that. If you want a religion to make you feel really comfortable, I certainly don't recommend Christianity.” -- C.S.Lewis

  2. #2
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    Some excepts from the emails (the numbers reference to an email in the archive that was published), the excerpts lifted by me from another blog, not directly from the emails:

    1107454306 - “The two MMs have been after the CRU station data for years. If they ever hear there is a Freedom of Information Act now in the UK, I think I’ll delete the file rather than send to anyone.”

    1109021312 - “Don’t any of you three tell anybody that the UK has a Freedom of Information Act !”

    1210341221 - “2. You can delete this attachment if you want. Keep this quiet also, but this is the person who is putting in FOI requests for all emails Keith and Tim have written and received re Ch 6 of AR4. We think we’ve found a way around this.”

    1212073451 - “Can you delete any emails you may have had with Keith re AR4?”

    1228330629 - “If he pays 10 pounds (which he hasn’t yet) I am supposed to go through my emails and he can get anything I’ve written about him. About 2 months ago I deleted loads of emails, so have very little - if anything at all. This legislation is different from the FOI”

    1089318616 - “I can’t see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep them out somehow - even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is !”

    1092418712 - “Obviously, under no circumstances should any of this get back to Pielke.”

    0876437553 - “I am very strongly in favor of as wide and rapid a distribution as
    possible for endorsements. I think the only thing that counts is
    numbers. The media is going to say “1000 scientists signed” or “1500
    signed”. No one is going to check if it is 600 with PhDs versus 2000
    without. They will mention the prominent ones, but that is a
    different story.”

    1106338806 - “Data is covered by all the agreements we sign with people, so I will be hiding behind them.“

    0843161829 - “I really wish I could be more positive about the Kyrgyzstan material, but I swear I pulled every trick out of my sleeve trying to milk something out of that. ”

    1053461261 - “The various papers apparently in production, regardless of their individual emphasis or approaches, will find their way in to the literature and the next IPCC can sift and present their message(s) as it wishes., but in the meantime , why not a simple statement of the shortcomings of the BS paper as they have been listed in these messages and why not in Climate Research?”

    1254108338 - “So, if we could reduce the ocean blip by, say, 0.15 degC, then this would be significant for the global mean — but we’d still have to explain the land blip.”

    1114025310 - “Ch 4 has swallowed this hook, line and sinker and it is really a Ch 6 issue. Ch 6 wasn’t even aware of it. Can’t decide who on Ch 4 knew about it as Oerlemans isn’t there and the Swiss Glacier people didn’t know about the paper 2 weeks ago when I saw them. I like the curve as does Mike Mann, but its not for any scientific reason.”

    1106322460 - Trying to get Saiers ousted from GRL

    1098472400 - “This is all gut feeling, no science, but years of experience of dealing with global scales and varaibility.”
    “As you perhaps know, I haven't always been a Christian. I didn't go to religion to make me happy. I always knew a bottle of port would do that. If you want a religion to make you feel really comfortable, I certainly don't recommend Christianity.” -- C.S.Lewis

  3. #3
    CC Grandmaster Spiny Norman's Avatar
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    The truth is continuing to emerge, for those with a mind to winkle it out. For example, RealClimate.org (supposedly a bastion of truth and unbiased science) turns out to be associated with Al Gore:

    http://www.populartechnology.net/200...limateorg.html

    realclimate.org's WHOIS record reveals:
    Registrant Organization - Environmental Media Services

    EMS's founder and President was Arlie Schardt, who also served as the National Press Secretary for Al Gore's 1988 presidential campaign, and as Gore's Communications Director during his 2000 bid for the White House.
    “As you perhaps know, I haven't always been a Christian. I didn't go to religion to make me happy. I always knew a bottle of port would do that. If you want a religion to make you feel really comfortable, I certainly don't recommend Christianity.” -- C.S.Lewis

  4. #4
    CC Grandmaster Spiny Norman's Avatar
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    Another prime example of what's gone wrong (from: #0927042520.txt)

    Q. How is climate sensitivity established scientifically?

    A.

    From: David Viner
    To: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, s.raper@uea.ac.uk
    Subject: Fwd: Re: Climate Sensitivity
    Date: Tue, 18 May 1999 11:48:40 +0100

    Mike

    The climate sensitivity of HadCM2…..pick a value between 2.5 and 4.1K

    D
    “As you perhaps know, I haven't always been a Christian. I didn't go to religion to make me happy. I always knew a bottle of port would do that. If you want a religion to make you feel really comfortable, I certainly don't recommend Christianity.” -- C.S.Lewis

  5. #5
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    I wonder how long it'll take to either be refuted or reported by major news services.
    won't be surprised if neither happens.
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  6. #6
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    BBC, NY Times and others are reporting it. Whether the content stands up is another matter...
    “As you perhaps know, I haven't always been a Christian. I didn't go to religion to make me happy. I always knew a bottle of port would do that. If you want a religion to make you feel really comfortable, I certainly don't recommend Christianity.” -- C.S.Lewis

  7. #7
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Snail King
    BBC, NY Times and others are reporting it. Whether the content stands up is another matter...
    Actually, BBC, NYT and TSK
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  8. #8
    CC Grandmaster Spiny Norman's Avatar
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    Funnily enough, the more I read of the correspondence, the more I think I am convinced of the "middle ground" as being the safest set of beliefs about AGW. Before all these emails and other documents were released, I was clearly tending to the skeptical p.o.v. but emails such as:

    On Oct 14, 2009, at 10:17 AM, Kevin Trenberth wrote:

    Hi Tom

    How come you do not agree with a statement that says we are no where close to knowing where energy is going or whether clouds are changing to make the planet brighter. We are not close to balancing the energy budget. The fact that we can not account for what is happening in the climate system makes any consideration of geoengineering quite hopeless as we will never be able to tell if it is successful or not! It is a travesty!

    Kevin
    merely say to me that the science is open for much further development and it is clearly premature to be reaching conclusions about whether we ought to be re-engineering our economies.

    But that doesn't mean that AGW is false; it only means that the question is not able to be answered yet (despite the now obviously false claims of concensus).
    “As you perhaps know, I haven't always been a Christian. I didn't go to religion to make me happy. I always knew a bottle of port would do that. If you want a religion to make you feel really comfortable, I certainly don't recommend Christianity.” -- C.S.Lewis

  9. #9
    CC Grandmaster Basil's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Snail King
    But that doesn't mean that AGW is false; it only means that the question is not able to be answered yet (despite the now obviously false claims of concensus).
    Of course. This is why Rudd (who told us the global warming 'results were in'), his cabinet and hippies should ... never mind.
    Last edited by Basil; 21-11-2009 at 05:30 PM.
    There is no cure for leftism. Its infestation of the host mostly diminishes with age except in the most rabid of specimens.

  10. #10
    CC Grandmaster Spiny Norman's Avatar
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    Something else I have observed, particularly at skeptical websites:

    there's a tendancy to think:
    (a) because some of the data has been falsified (or tricked up) in order to support the theory of AGW; therefore
    (b) the theory of AGW is false

    But (b) does not follow from (a). All one can safely decide is that the case for AGW has not yet been made, not that the theory of AGW is falsified.

    There are too many extreme points of view in this 'debate'.

    I choose agnosticism.
    “As you perhaps know, I haven't always been a Christian. I didn't go to religion to make me happy. I always knew a bottle of port would do that. If you want a religion to make you feel really comfortable, I certainly don't recommend Christianity.” -- C.S.Lewis

  11. #11
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    Richard Feynman on Honesty in Science:

    It’s a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty–a kind of leaning over backwards. For example, if you’re doing an experiment, you should report everything that you think might make it invalid–not only what you think is right about it: other causes that could possibly explain your results; and things you thought of that you’ve eliminated by some other experiment, and how they worked–to make sure the other fellow can tell they have been eliminated.

    Details that could throw doubt on your interpretation must be given, if you know them. You must do the best you can–if you know anything at all wrong, or possibly wrong–to explain it. If you make a theory, for example, and advertise it, or put it out, then you must also put down all the facts that disagree with it, as well as those that agree with it. There is also a more subtle problem. When you have put a lot of ideas together to make an elaborate theory, you want to make sure, when explaining what it fits, that those things it fits are not just the things that gave you the idea for the theory; but that the finished theory makes something else come out right, in addition.

    In summary, the idea is to try to give all of the information to help others to judge the value of your contribution; not just the information that leads to judgment in one particular direction or another.
    “As you perhaps know, I haven't always been a Christian. I didn't go to religion to make me happy. I always knew a bottle of port would do that. If you want a religion to make you feel really comfortable, I certainly don't recommend Christianity.” -- C.S.Lewis

  12. #12
    CC Grandmaster Spiny Norman's Avatar
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    Hard to ignore stuff like this:

    On Oct 14, 2009, at 5:57 PM, Tom Wigley wrote:

    Mike,

    The Figure you sent is very deceptive. As an example, historical runs with PCM look as though they match observations -- but the match is a fluke. PCM has no indirect aerosol forcing and a low climate sensitivity -- compensating errors.

    In my (perhaps too harsh) view, there have been a number of dishonest presentations of model results by individual authors and by IPCC. This is why I still use results from MAGICC to compare with observed temperatures. At least here I can assess how sensitive matches are to sensitivity and forcing assumptions/uncertainties.

    Tom.
    “As you perhaps know, I haven't always been a Christian. I didn't go to religion to make me happy. I always knew a bottle of port would do that. If you want a religion to make you feel really comfortable, I certainly don't recommend Christianity.” -- C.S.Lewis

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Snail King
    BBC, NY Times and others are reporting it. Whether the content stands up is another matter...
    From BBC article it's impossible to guess that email content discredits Hudley CRU.
    Didn't find anything on NY Times website.
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  14. #14
    CC Grandmaster Spiny Norman's Avatar
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    Expect the left-wing media to focus purely on the fact of the emails being taken, not on the content.

    I notice our own ABC still had absolutely NOTHING about this on their news sites as at about 10pm last night.

    Their silence speaks louder than anything they might have put in print.
    “As you perhaps know, I haven't always been a Christian. I didn't go to religion to make me happy. I always knew a bottle of port would do that. If you want a religion to make you feel really comfortable, I certainly don't recommend Christianity.” -- C.S.Lewis

  15. #15
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    The blogosphere has absolutely creamed the mainstream media over this story. But as Andrew Bolt writes:

    It’s taking time for journalists to understand the scale and significance of this thing, and to overcome the fear of countering something so seemingly overwhelming and moral - and to overcome the feeling of loyalty to it. But this story will, I suspect, prove too tempting to ignore for much longer, and the real problem for most newspapers will be a manpower one: who on staff has the slightest familiarity with the sceptics’ arguments. But Brisbane’s Courier Mail now takes it up, albeit too briefly.
    Good question that. I think you will find that, once the possibility is opened up for people to be skeptical without being demonised, skeptics will appear from everywhere. Here's the Courier Mail story (very brief):

    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/s...97-952,00.html
    “As you perhaps know, I haven't always been a Christian. I didn't go to religion to make me happy. I always knew a bottle of port would do that. If you want a religion to make you feel really comfortable, I certainly don't recommend Christianity.” -- C.S.Lewis

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