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antichrist
15-10-2020, 12:56 PM
oh is the party line softening down now (compared to the stupid "dead duck" statement?

Lying to ICAC should be most serious. She could repeat Bill Clinton's famous line.

Garvinator
15-10-2020, 03:02 PM
whoa, c'mon buddy, wasn't any bottle of wine - the "pass da flagon" quality down South Brisbane way.
Add a price to it please, was it like a $2500, $3000 collectors' item or what? :D :P

No, it was not just any bottle of plonk, but a roughly $3000 bottle of Grange. But my main point still stands. Barry O'Farrell resigns, or was pushed, either way, for not updating the register to reflect this gift from a questionable source.

But Politicians regularly forget to update the register. Jackie Trad did not update the register to reflect that she had bought a home in an area that she was in charge of a major infrastructure project - Cross River Rail.

Full details here: https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/jackie-trad-will-not-be-investigated-over-brisbane-house-purchase-20190906-p52opu.html

The main point I am making is that Politicians regularly fail to update the register, then when found out, they plead, I forgot, sorry about that and then lets move on.

Meanwhile, one NSW Premier is under the pump for her private life and dealings with a questionable character and another resigned because of a $3000 bottle of wine. At the same time, Daniel Andrews looks like he is going to skate through even though his decisions lead to the deaths of 800+ people.

I do not have an issue if both NSW Premiers go if their conduct has affected the running of the State, but I think it stinks that 1 Premier stays with deaths in his State and two Premiers resign for far less.

Kevin Bonham
15-10-2020, 04:02 PM
No, it was not just any bottle of plonk, but a roughly $3000 bottle of Grange. But my main point still stands. Barry O'Farrell resigns, or was pushed, either way, for not updating the register to reflect this gift from a questionable source.

It wasn't the failure to update the register that brought him undone, it was that he (probably unwittingly via a memory failure coupled with overconfidence about his memory) gave false evidence to ICAC by saying that he was certain he hadn't received it and that he would definitely have remembered it if he had.

Ian Murray
15-10-2020, 05:21 PM
oh is the party line softening down now (compared to the stupid "dead duck" statement?

She's still a dead duck

ER
15-10-2020, 06:33 PM
She's still a dead duck
still a stupid statement!

ER
16-10-2020, 09:13 AM
No, it was not just any bottle of plonk,

ok but you made it sound that way in your original remember?


one Premier resigned over forgetting about a bottle of wine (O'Farrell)

Patrick Byrom
17-10-2020, 06:27 PM
The Labor/Greens coalition government seems very likely to have retained government (Disclaimer: any forecast is subject to the vagaries of Hare-Clark :) ).

UPDATE: In the ACT election, the Labor/Greens government has been returned comfortably, although with a more greenish tinge.

ER
17-10-2020, 07:22 PM
oh ok I thought you were talkin' about Jacinda in NZ for a sec and said to myself have we annexed Kiwiland or what? :D
And I know the thread is about State politics but then again NZ was a part of NSW at some stage! :P

Kevin Bonham
17-10-2020, 09:37 PM
The Greens could potentially win six seats, though one of those is on a knife-edge and several are uncertain. Amazing off 14% of the vote.

Patrick Byrom
31-10-2020, 07:41 PM
Once again, Labor seems fairly certain to have retained government - this time in Qld.

antichrist
31-10-2020, 08:10 PM
The Greens could potentially win six seats, though one of those is on a knife-edge and several are uncertain. Amazing off 14% of the vote.

My decades campaigning for green issues was not so hopeless after all and Qld of all places.

Desmond
31-10-2020, 08:38 PM
Once again, Labor seems fairly certain to have retained government - this time in Qld.

So has anyone apart from the US Oompa Loompa or scotty from Marketing managed to waste this crisis?

Patrick Byrom
31-10-2020, 08:56 PM
My decades campaigning for green issues was not so hopeless after all and Qld of all places.Kevin was referring to the ACT, of course - only two Green seats in Qld (both in Brisbane).

Patrick Byrom
31-10-2020, 09:01 PM
So has anyone apart from the US Oompa Loompa or scotty from Marketing managed to waste this crisis?Boris Johnson in the UK isn't doing too well, but he's still got four years until the next election.

Scott Colliver
31-10-2020, 09:27 PM
Once again, Labor seems fairly certain to have retained government - this time in Qld.

Labor seems certain to have more seats than LNP, but far from certain of making the 47 seats needed to govern in their own right.

Postal votes and absentee votes are almost to favour the LNP and should overturn a number of seats that Labor are just ahead in now.

Scott Colliver
31-10-2020, 09:54 PM
I now think Labor will get at least 47 seats and retain majority government.

Patrick Byrom
31-10-2020, 10:09 PM
I now think Labor will get at least 47 seats and retain majority government.I agree. More importantly, so does Kevin Bonham! (http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/)

antichrist
31-10-2020, 10:22 PM
The Premier is from Inala, I have been there shopping many times.

Ian Murray
01-11-2020, 08:00 AM
Queensland voters swing behind Labor in historic win for Annastacia Palaszczuk (https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2020/11/01/queensland-election-labor-victory/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Sunday%20Best%20-%2020201101)

Queensland voters have backed the Labor party’s stance on borders to re-elect Annastacia Palaszczuk for an historic third consecutive term as premier.

After a campaign against the backdrop of COVID, Labor was rewarded with a swing of 5.3 per cent, with the premier noting that many people had voted for her party for the first time.

Despite a barrage of public criticism from everyone from the Prime Minister to Qantas boss Alan Joyce, voters declared their support for the Qld’s premier’s handling of the pandemic.

The leader once dubbed the “accidental premier” won her place in history as the first Australian woman political leader to secure three successive victories. ...

Desmond
01-11-2020, 11:29 AM
The Premier is from Inala, I have been there shopping many times.

For secondhand goods?

antichrist
01-11-2020, 12:28 PM
For secondhand goods?

I have to go Coopers Plains for business so jump across for bargains compared to Byron. I must look into 2nd hand now you have you formed me.

Kevin Bonham
05-11-2020, 04:56 PM
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2020/11/not-again-oppositions-that-went.html
Not Again: Oppositions That Went Backwards Twice In A Row
A once-in-a-decade fail that recently happened twice in two weeks!

Kevin Bonham
13-11-2020, 04:59 PM
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2020/11/recent-state-election-polling-does-not.html
Recent State Election Polling Does Not Skew To Labor

May be of interest re current claims that polling failures always overestimate the left (it isn't true).

rob
23-11-2020, 08:43 PM
With the WA election due on 13 March liberal leader Liz Harvey has just resigned. They are likely to chose 33 year old Zak Kirkup to replace her tomorrow.

As labour leader Mark McGowan is so popular, a really big victory for labour is very probable. Not sure if you guys over East realise quite how popular he is here.

Garvinator
23-11-2020, 08:48 PM
As labour leader Mark McGowan is so popular, a really big victory for labour is very probable. Not sure if you guys over East realise quite how popular he is here.

There is nothing unusual here. Since the start of the Corona Virus election season here in Aus/NZ, all current Governments have been re-elected. Even Daniel Andrews polling numbers are in the positive.

Kevin Bonham
23-11-2020, 09:09 PM
As labour leader Mark McGowan is so popular, a really big victory for labour is very probable. Not sure if you guys over East realise quite how popular he is here.

He's been fighting with Peter Gutwein (Tas) for the title of the highest rating Premier ever. There's very little in it between the two.

Things are so bad for the Liberals that if they were offered just a repeat of last time's drubbing they would probably take it.

Kevin Bonham
23-11-2020, 09:21 PM
There is nothing unusual here. Since the start of the Corona Virus election season here in Aus/NZ, all current Governments have been re-elected. Even Daniel Andrews polling numbers are in the positive.

There's a difference between the sort of landslide seen in NZ and the comfortable but not enormous wins for sitting governments in ACT, NT and Queensland - wins that may have happened anyway as it is an advantage at state/territory level to be in opposition federally. There's also a difference between the +35-ish net ratings being seen for Palaszczuk, Andrews, Berejiklian, Morrison and the just about universal approval for Ardern, McGowan, Gutwein. Certain places are especially well suited to using COVID to parochial advantage.

There hasn't been any reliable public polling in WA but there's a suspicion that Labor is currently 60-40 or more ahead. That may close up by the election, otherwise the Liberals would be almost wiped out in the lower house.

Kevin Bonham
24-02-2021, 02:07 PM
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/02/one-more-nightmare-group-tickets-and.html
One More Nightmare: Group Tickets and the 2021 WA Upper House

WA's absurd persistence with group tickets could see an antivax conspiracy theorist who admires Craig Kelly elected on Greens preferences.

Patrick Byrom
24-02-2021, 02:30 PM
... There hasn't been any reliable public polling in WA but there's a suspicion that Labor is currently 60-40 or more ahead. That may close up by the election, otherwise the Liberals would be almost wiped out in the lower house.A wipeout is looking quite likely (https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/02/wa-2021-how-lopsided-do-you-want-it.html):


The Newspoll has come out with a scarcely processable 2PP of 68-32 to Labor off primaries of ALP 59 Liberal 23 Green 8 One Nation 3 Nationals 2 Others 5. The 2PP is the largest in Newspoll history in any state, beating the 66-34 lead for the NSW Coalition soon after the 2011 election. (And that was in an optional preferencing state, which tends to blow out the 2PPs when one party is on the nose). Mark McGowan has a net satisfaction rating of +78 (88-10), the highest recorded in a regular full scale Newspoll (beating Wayne Goss's +57 from 1992), but slightly lower than recorded by both McGowan and Peter Gutwein (Tas) in smaller sample approval-only Newspolls last year. McGowan leads Zak Kirkup as Better Premier 83-10, noting that this indicator does skew to incumbents (but only slightly in the context of such an enormous lead). This is the highest lead in Newspoll history by seven points - Steve Bracks (74-8 over Denis Napthine in 2000) and federally Kevin Rudd (73-7 over Brendan Nelson in 2008) have led by 66. Opposition Leader Zak Kirkup is on net -12 (29-41), which in the circumstances is probably not that bad really.

Garvinator
02-03-2021, 03:01 PM
I can not recall where I wrote it down, whether it was here or on facebook, but I was very clear in warning very early on in this pandemic that as soon as our Governments got even the slightest sniff of total control and power, they would keep trying to use every excuse in the book to tighten the noose harder and harder.

Now we have this: https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/wa-premier-mark-mcgowan-wants-border-controls-to-continue-beyond-covid19-pandemic/news-story/e3c051bb087c8e01d593fb0f0bd85acb

I do not care what Mark McGowan's justification is - it is a blatant attempt to keep power, which is exactly what Governments do when they have had a taste of total control and look like they are going to lose control of it. Governments across the world have done this since time in memorial and this is just another example.

The only way to get them to stop is to throw them out. And please let me be clear. I am saying Governments. I am not referring to any particular party as all sides of politics are guilty of it across the world.

Patrick Byrom
02-03-2021, 06:20 PM
I can not recall where I wrote it down, whether it was here or on facebook, but I was very clear in warning very early on in this pandemic that as soon as our Governments got even the slightest sniff of total control and power, they would keep trying to use every excuse in the book to tighten the noose harder and harder.

Now we have this: https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/wa-premier-mark-mcgowan-wants-border-controls-to-continue-beyond-covid19-pandemic/news-story/e3c051bb087c8e01d593fb0f0bd85acb

I do not care what Mark McGowan's justification is - it is a blatant attempt to keep power, which is exactly what Governments do when they have had a taste of total control and look like they are going to lose control of it. Governments across the world have done this since time in memorial and this is just another example.

The only way to get them to stop is to throw them out. And please let me be clear. I am saying Governments. I am not referring to any particular party as all sides of politics are guilty of it across the world.Isn't this a state matter rather than a federal one? Anyway, McGowan has reversed his position (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-02/mark-mcgowan-flags-tougher-border-after-fall-in-meth-imports/13206388):

West Australian Premier Mark McGowan has partly walked back his comments about extending the state's "controlled border" beyond the COVID-19 pandemic in order to slow drug importation, and has now committed to ending the G2G application system. Earlier this morning, Mr McGowan would not rule out extending the G2G application system beyond the pandemic, arguing it had been effective in keeping not just COVID-19 out, but also illicit drugs such as methamphetamine.
And I'm not sure that this is a good example to use - WA (like other states) had border controls before the pandemic, so it just seems to be a question of how strict they will be.

I believe you made the original point in the Covid thread.

Desmond
03-03-2021, 01:05 PM
I can not recall where I wrote it down, whether it was here or on facebook, but I was very clear in warning very early on in this pandemic that as soon as our Governments got even the slightest sniff of total control and power, they would keep trying to use every excuse in the book to tighten the noose harder and harder.

Now we have this: https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/wa-premier-mark-mcgowan-wants-border-controls-to-continue-beyond-covid19-pandemic/news-story/e3c051bb087c8e01d593fb0f0bd85acb

I do not care what Mark McGowan's justification is ...

Surely just another WA politician playing to local audience, blaming eastern states for all and sundry. Expect a GST rant next.

With all the drugs pouring into WA from the martime border, it wouldn't surprise me if WA was a net exporter of drugs, when it comes to the rest of Aus.

MichaelBaron
12-03-2021, 09:00 AM
Victorian Premier is in Hospital due to a home fall. He is expected to be ''out of action'' for months.

Metro
13-03-2021, 06:36 AM
Victorian Premier is in Hospital due to a home fall. He is expected to be ''out of action'' for months.

He broke ribs and fractured his T7 vertebra.Injuries are described as "serious".A doctor said he will be able to use a phone and computer soon.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-12/how-long-will-it-take-for-premier-daniel-andrews-to-recover/13237696
Objectively,one has to consider he may resign and retire.eg if there are complications or he begins to enjoy the "good life" away from politics.He may retire on a parliamentary pension.

Patrick Byrom
13-03-2021, 09:10 PM
A wipeout is looking quite likely (https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/02/wa-2021-how-lopsided-do-you-want-it.html): ... Labor have been returned - the only question is how bad the Liberal wipeout will be.

Ian Murray
14-03-2021, 12:23 PM
WA Libs have achieved gender equality at last. One man and one woman in parliament.

Ian Murray
14-03-2021, 02:47 PM
Luckily there are vacancies on drilling rigs for the newly-unemployed Liberal MPs

MichaelBaron
14-03-2021, 06:35 PM
in Any case...it is a Laboral Party that is ruling Australia.
And lets see if the more left wing government will decrease unemployment not only for MPs (I do not think they will struggle with job search) but also for many others.

Kevin Bonham
15-03-2021, 08:29 PM
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/03/asinine-nsw-labor-not-at-hundred-year.html

AsiNine: NSW Labor Not At Hundred-Year Low

I take out the trash from Nine’s infuriatingly bad poll reporting of the NSW RedBridge poll last night.

Desmond
16-03-2021, 01:07 PM
Just curious how long has your side poll on Next Leader To Go been there? Andrews is sitting at 4th but given recent health issues I thought he would be higher.

Kevin Bonham
16-03-2021, 04:26 PM
Just curious how long has your side poll on Next Leader To Go been there? Andrews is sitting at 4th but given recent health issues I thought he would be higher.

It started on 1 Nov 2020. It will run until one of them goes and then restart shortly afterwards.

Kevin Bonham
19-03-2021, 08:37 PM
It does appear that 53-2-4 will be the final result in the WA lower house election (a number of seats are still in doubt in the upper house).

When the first Newspoll came out with a 68-32 lead for Labor I put it in my seat model and wrote the following:

"This would be absolute carnage - the Liberals would retain at most four seats, but could even be wiped out entirely, while the Nationals would probably hold three or four. The most likely seat distribution would be 53-2-4."

(Note I did not predict that 53-2-4 would actually occur, I just said it was the most likely outcome if the 2PP was 68-32, which it will be very close to.)

Kevin Bonham
24-03-2021, 08:45 PM
The Tasmanian government has lost its majority with Speaker Sue Hickey becoming an independent after being told by Premier Peter Gutwein that she would not be preselected for the next election. Hickey has now used interviews and parliamentary privelege to make accusations against Senator Eric Abetz regarding comments she alleges he made about Brittany Higgins. An election could be called any time now; it's hard to see this parliament going full term.

Scott Colliver
26-03-2021, 11:08 AM
The Tasmanian government has lost its majority with Speaker Sue Hickey becoming an independent after being told by Premier Peter Gutwein that she would not be preselected for the next election. Hickey has now used interviews and parliamentary privelege to make accusations against Senator Eric Abetz regarding comments she alleges he made about Brittany Higgins. An election could be called any time now; it's hard to see this parliament going full term.

And now Gutwein has called an early election on May 1st because he says does not want to govern as a minority government. He committed to not governing as a minority government after the election. It is a majority or nothing for the Liberals.

Kevin Bonham
26-03-2021, 03:49 PM
And now Gutwein has called an early election on May 1st because he says does not want to govern as a minority government. He committed to not governing as a minority government after the election. It is a majority or nothing for the Liberals.

Or if they don't get a majority he can resign and someone else can take over, as happened with Ray Groom in 1996. I doubt they will fail though.

Garvinator
26-03-2021, 04:58 PM
And now Gutwein has called an early election on May 1st because he says does not want to govern as a minority government. He committed to not governing as a minority government after the election. It is a majority or nothing for the Liberals.

No major party that wants to be in majority Government is going to say before an election - Yes, we are happy with Minority Government and we are willing to do deals with which ever minor parties it takes to form Minority Government.

That is a very difficult position to defend and leaves so many open questions for journalists and people on social media to attack through out the campaign.

As well, it causes confusion for those who are considering voting for one of the major parties if that major party is saying, yep, we will do a deal with a minor party who is very much the political opposite of us.

Therefore, it is much easier for all major parties to say, we want Majority Government and will not consider any deals. But, the reality is very much different when reality comes back to smack them in the face when all the votes are counted and both major parties are short of Majority Government and the only options are to form minority government or say no deals and risk letting the other side form minority government.

For any party in that time period after the votes have been counted and when one party goes to the Governor or Governor-General, it is one of the highest risk gambles to say, we said, no deals with any minor parties and we meant it, we would rather go back to the polls than form minority government. They would then be risking being left out in the cold as the other side would be given a free shot at negotiating with any of the minor parties to make a deal for minority government.

Furthermore, there is also the 'perception equals reality' aspect as well to consider. Any party who says in this time period, we would rather send everyone back to the polls rather than forming minority government, risks looking like they are not willing to accept the judgment of the voters from the election.

And that could cause a backlash if there was a second go round. So that party could end up going from not considering minority government on principle to being in opposition.

Kevin Bonham
26-03-2021, 07:40 PM
For any party in that time period after the votes have been counted and when one party goes to the Governor or Governor-General, it is one of the highest risk gambles to say, we said, no deals with any minor parties and we meant it, we would rather go back to the polls than form minority government. They would then be risking being left out in the cold as the other side would be given a free shot at negotiating with any of the minor parties to make a deal for minority government.

Furthermore, there is also the 'perception equals reality' aspect as well to consider. Any party who says in this time period, we would rather send everyone back to the polls rather than forming minority government, risks looking like they are not willing to accept the judgment of the voters from the election.

And that could cause a backlash if there was a second go round. So that party could end up going from not considering minority government on principle to being in opposition.

There's a bit of relevant background here from past Tas elections. In 1996 Labor who were the Opposition went into the election with a pledge that they would govern in majority or not at all, which all of their candidates signed. The Liberal government lost its majority but Labor refused to even discuss taking government so the Liberals were forced to govern with very minimal support from the Greens to avoid an immediate second election. The resulting parliament was turbulent and didn't go full term; Labor won the next three elections outright.

In 2010 Labor lost their majority and the Liberals got more votes but the same number of seats as Labor. The Labor Premier David Bartlett said the Liberals should be given the first chance to try to form government. However the Liberals made no attempt to get the support of the Greens and tried to convince the Governor that Labor would support a Liberal government. The Governor wasn't convinced because he could only go on what Bartlett was telling him, and not what Bartlett had said publicly, so he ended up recommissioning Labor anyway.

The common theme is that if you're the incumbent government and you lose your majority, you're stuck holding the baby unless the opposition wants to govern in minority. And in Tassie, this is a big problem, because it means you govern for one more term and then get smashed at the election after, because voters here hate hung parliaments where the Greens have power.

Garvinator
26-03-2021, 08:08 PM
And in Tassie, this is a big problem, because it means you govern for one more term and then get smashed at the election after, because voters here hate hung parliaments where the Greens have power.Voters hate hung Parliaments where the Greens have power. This is not news to you, but that is not restricted to Tassie, or even just Australia :whistle: :doh:

Kevin Bonham
28-03-2021, 07:24 PM
Ex-Labor independent Madeleine Ogilvie has been preselected on the Liberal ticket, meaning that having called an election to get their majority back, the Liberals have gone back into majority after two days of the campaign!

Meanwhile Labor is being roasted for not preselecting Kingborough Mayor Dean Winter as a candidate. Some Labor elements claim Winter is too right-wing but they don't seem to publish that much evidence for this.

My main election guide page is here: http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/03/2021-tasmanian-state-election-guide.html

Patrick Byrom
31-03-2021, 12:05 PM
The Tasmanian government has lost its majority with Speaker Sue Hickey becoming an independent after being told by Premier Peter Gutwein that she would not be preselected for the next election. Hickey has now used interviews and parliamentary privelege to make accusations against Senator Eric Abetz regarding comments she alleges he made about Brittany Higgins. An election could be called any time now; it's hard to see this parliament going full term.And now the NSW government has lost its majority, with the resignation of Michael Johnsen after revelations that police were investigating allegations of sexual violence against him.

Kevin Bonham
31-03-2021, 06:05 PM
And now the NSW government has lost its majority, with the resignation of Michael Johnsen after revelations that police were investigating allegations of sexual violence against him.

Yes - this may be irrelevant as the by-election may be run before the House sits again - of course it's not irrelevant if they lose the by-election.

As well as the rape claims which are probably difficult to substantiate one way or the other, Johnsen was facing claims about sexting from parliament including inside the chamber during seatings, and those appeared to have strong evidence behind them.

Meanwhile in Tasmania the Liberal Party has lost (and replaced) a candidate over anti-lockdown comments and other contentious social media.

Kevin Bonham
01-04-2021, 10:31 PM
In a masterpiece of antidemocratic stupid, the Daylight Saving Party's Wilson Tucker has won a seat in the WA Upper House off a ticket primary vote of 98 votes thanks to preference harvesting combined with malapportionment - two ridiculous features of the WA electoral system that the previous government failed to fix. Tucker was elected in a region that hates daylight savings, and it turns out he is living in America but will move back to WA.

Garvinator
01-04-2021, 10:38 PM
In a masterpiece of antidemocratic stupid, the Daylight Saving Party's Wilson Tucker has won a seat in the WA Upper House off a ticket primary vote of 98 votes thanks to preference harvesting combined with malapportionment - two ridiculous features of the WA electoral system that the previous government failed to fix. Tucker was elected in a region that hates daylight savings, and it turns out he is living in America but will move back to WA.

Appropriate date for this announcement :P

MichaelBaron
03-04-2021, 10:32 AM
In a masterpiece of antidemocratic stupid, the Daylight Saving Party's Wilson Tucker has won a seat in the WA Upper House off a ticket primary vote of 98 votes thanks to preference harvesting combined with malapportionment - two ridiculous features of the WA electoral system that the previous government failed to fix. Tucker was elected in a region that hates daylight savings, and it turns out he is living in America but will move back to WA.

I never even heard about the Daylight Saving Party :).

Patrick Byrom
03-04-2021, 12:59 PM
I never even heard about the Daylight Saving Party :).Daylight Saving Time is controversial in Qld and WA - neither of which have it. But in other states nobody really cares. So it could be a legitimate issue for a party to campaign on.

Ian Rout
19-04-2021, 11:47 AM
Australia's highest rated Member of Parliament (as in highest chess rating) makes the news:

https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/7214565/tasmanian-liberal-candidate-in-social-media-vegetable-stew/

Not a bad move - there are probably more farmers than vegans in Braddon.

Patrick Byrom
19-04-2021, 07:47 PM
Australia's highest rated Member of Parliament (as in highest chess rating) makes the news:
https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/7214565/tasmanian-liberal-candidate-in-social-media-vegetable-stew/
Not a bad move - there are probably more farmers than vegans in Braddon.I don't mean to be picky, but while farmers may not be vegans themselves, they often grow food that vegans buy and eat :) And in the article he appears to be eating a (beef?) sandwich - the bread would definitely qualify as 'vegan food'.

Ian Rout
20-04-2021, 02:19 PM
And in the article he appears to be eating a (beef?) sandwich - the bread would definitely qualify as 'vegan food'.There isn't really "vegan food", it's simply food that everybody eats. Vegans just don't put butter on the bread.


I don't mean to be picky, but while farmers may not be vegans themselves, they often grow food that vegans buy and eatThat's true, some farmers only grow plants, though on the other hand there are more groups that would react positively. Overall I'd rate vegan-baiting as a good move for profile-raising, especially when it gets you at the top of the Advocate page for a couple of days (also prominent in the Launceston Examiner) and mainly alienates people who probably aren't voting for you anyway.

The article doesn't quite tell the whole story. It's certainly true that the Facebook comments are overwhelmingly hostile (there's a line about how you know when someone is vegan) but the reactions are about 40% "Like" or "Haha".

Desmond
20-04-2021, 04:11 PM
Of course vegans are unethical. To not eat the beef sandwich means that the cow died in vain.

Patrick Byrom
20-04-2021, 07:09 PM
That's true, some farmers only grow plants, though on the other hand there are more groups that would react positively. Overall I'd rate vegan-baiting as a good move for profile-raising, especially when it gets you at the top of the Advocate page for a couple of days (also prominent in the Launceston Examiner) and mainly alienates people who probably aren't voting for you anyway.Kevin's guide to the election (http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/03/2021-tasmanian-state-election-guide_27.html) suggests that he will struggle to be returned, so you may be right:

On the Liberal side Jeremy Rockliff will be returned, but Brooks (if re-endorsed) is a threat to Ellis and possibly Jaensch. Ellis has had little time to build profile although he did receive a lot of publicity for his debut speech. Jaensch fairly narrowly beat ticketmate Joan Rylah last time but it will be challenging for Ellis to beat him. Brooks has been a strong vote-getter in the past but his career was sidelined by conflict of interest issues, leading to him resigning from parliament in 2019 after a critical Integrity Commission report about his use of a company email account. Journalist Sean Ford, who knows this electorate very well, considers that Stacey Sheehan should defeat Ellis even if the Liberals do win four.
Although the strategy of ignoring groups on the basis that they won't vote for you anyway hasn't been that successful recently :(


The article doesn't quite tell the whole story. It's certainly true that the Facebook comments are overwhelmingly hostile (there's a line about how you know when someone is vegan) but the reactions are about 40% "Like" or "Haha".I didn't take his comments too seriously - although I'm not vegan (or even vegetarian).

Ian Rout
21-04-2021, 10:52 AM
Kevin's guide to the election (http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/03/2021-tasmanian-state-election-guide_27.html) suggests that he will struggle to be returned, so you may be right:

On the Liberal side Jeremy Rockliff will be returned, but Brooks (if re-endorsed) is a threat to Ellis and possibly Jaensch. Ellis has had little time to build profile although he did receive a lot of publicity for his debut speech. Jaensch fairly narrowly beat ticketmate Joan Rylah last time but it will be challenging for Ellis to beat him. Brooks has been a strong vote-getter in the past but his career was sidelined by conflict of interest issues, leading to him resigning from parliament in 2019 after a critical Integrity Commission report about his use of a company email account. Journalist Sean Ford, who knows this electorate very well, considers that Stacey Sheehan should defeat Ellis even if the Liberals do win four.
You can't really argue with Kevin's logic, so I won't. But a couple of things to note:

* Brooksy has of late been assisting PC Plod with more enquiries than is a good look for a Liberal candidate.

* Felix was one of six Liberal MPs (about half) to vote against assisted dying legislation, which will attract the religious-right vote. How much is that worth? Well at the last two elections Joan Rylah was the "family values" candidate - not sure what family values she embraced that other Liberals didn't, though in the case of Brooksy I can guess one or two. She was elected in 2014 when they won four seats, and was next cab off the rank in 2018 - so at least it's a springboard.

Hence I wouldn't completely write him off. If he gets back then it would be plausible to attribute it in reasonably large part to the Advocate story (and in turn to attribute the story to the response to his post).

Blunderbuss
23-04-2021, 08:11 AM
Australia's highest rated Member of Parliament (as in highest chess rating) makes the news:

https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/7214565/tasmanian-liberal-candidate-in-social-media-vegetable-stew/

Not a bad move - there are probably more farmers than vegans in Braddon.

Since moving to Tasmania, I have noticed that all the same problems as elsewhere exist but at a scale where you can clearly see the ‘cogs’ moving. By that I mean the balance between industrialization and nature and how governments balance the two. It seems to me that at the state level both Liberals and Labor have over the years been cheer leaders for industries like hydro, forestry and now fish farms. Rather than regulate them at arm’s length. As just one example, I caught the end of Sabra Lane interviewing Richard Flanagan on his new book TOXIC (https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2021/april/1619049158/richard-flanagan-justin-kurzel-and-conor-castles-lynch/tasmania-s-toxic)

I’m guessing Felix doesn’t really believe Vegan food is unethical, he is simply throwing ‘red meat’ to the base. But just in case he is serious then his homework is to watch the video posted here: http://www.chesschat.org/showthread.php?6637-Man-Made-Climate-Change-Issues-and-debates&p=468857&viewfull=1#post468857 (http://www.chesschat.org/showthread.php?6637-Man-Made-Climate-Change-Issues-and-debates&p=468857&viewfull=1#post468857)

idledim
23-04-2021, 11:39 AM
I have no idea about the political maths in Braddon - though I'm convinced, by Kevin's reasons, of the difficulties Felix faces. He does have (at least) 4 things in his favour:
he has a good mailing list
he recently got married
his first-born son arrived about 4 weeks ago
he is regularly seen helping out at Bunnings sausage fund-raisers.

Kevin Bonham
23-04-2021, 12:08 PM
It's a tricky one - beyond Rockliff who will again get a quota and then some in his own right, I'm not sure any of the other Liberal positions are assured:

* Brooks - popular in past, but scandal prone, though they're the sort of scandals that may not really resonate with voters
* Jaensch - really not a big vote getter in the past, maybe Ellis can beat him
* Ellis - less than a year to build profile and polled much less than the two above in 2018.
* Sheehan - seems to be a contender and well-connected

Rockliff will probably quit during the term anyway, so even if Ellis doesn't win now he may come back again down the track (and become a double recount winner like Nic Street). That is, unless Gutwein somehow falls short, quits, and Rockliff becomes Premier.

Kevin Bonham
01-05-2021, 04:08 PM
Tasmanian state election tonight!

I'll be live blogging at the Mercury (probably paywalled), my site has loads of commentary (not paywalled), after midnight I'll be putting up postcount threads to follow seats in doubt (also not paywalled).

Brooks has become involved in another scandal (involving alleged fake identities and dating profiles (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-30/woman-distress-over-adam-brooks-alleged-fake-identity/100105770), utterly bizarre) so will be interesting to see how he goes. If the government gets back but is reliant on his vote it will be a big headache for them.

Scott Colliver
01-05-2021, 04:58 PM
Tasmanian state election tonight!

I'll be live blogging at the Mercury (probably paywalled), my site has loads of commentary (not paywalled), after midnight I'll be putting up postcount threads to follow seats in doubt (also not paywalled).

Brooks has become involved in another scandal (involving alleged fake identities and dating profiles (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-30/woman-distress-over-adam-brooks-alleged-fake-identity/100105770), utterly bizarre) so will be interesting to see how he goes. If the government gets back but is reliant on his vote it will be a big headache for them.

Kevin I hope your big night goes well on the Mercury. You are probably the biggest expert on the Tasmanian political scene and they are very lucky to have you.

Scott Colliver
01-05-2021, 05:07 PM
The Tasmanian elections seems to be a question of whether the Liberals get a majority or falls short. A Labor majority seems highly unlikely, but given the lack of polling maybe we are in for a surprise. If there is no majority we will see which side, or, even both sides, try and form minority government and whether there is any changes in party leaderships during the process. Could be very interesting to watch.
Is a second election a real possibility if neither side forms minority government?

Garvinator
01-05-2021, 06:37 PM
The Tasmanian elections seems to be a question of whether the Liberals get a majority or falls short. A Labor majority seems highly unlikely, but given the lack of polling maybe we are in for a surprise. If there is no majority we will see which side, or, even both sides, try and form minority government and whether there is any changes in party leaderships during the process. Could be very interesting to watch.
Is a second election a real possibility if neither side forms minority government?

Hello Scott,

Whilst Kevin might be rather busy tonight with election results, I will answer this comment. Back a couple of weeks ago, I made a similar 'mainland' style comment regarding Minority Government attitudes. Both sides say they will not accept Minority Governments, but then when the votes are counted, both accept that minority Government is better than Opposition.

Kevin Bonham's reply, which was very clear on this topic with the history of Tasmanian politics.


There's a bit of relevant background here from past Tas elections. In 1996 Labor who were the Opposition went into the election with a pledge that they would govern in majority or not at all, which all of their candidates signed. The Liberal government lost its majority but Labor refused to even discuss taking government so the Liberals were forced to govern with very minimal support from the Greens to avoid an immediate second election. The resulting parliament was turbulent and didn't go full term; Labor won the next three elections outright.

In 2010 Labor lost their majority and the Liberals got more votes but the same number of seats as Labor. The Labor Premier David Bartlett said the Liberals should be given the first chance to try to form government. However the Liberals made no attempt to get the support of the Greens and tried to convince the Governor that Labor would support a Liberal government. The Governor wasn't convinced because he could only go on what Bartlett was telling him, and not what Bartlett had said publicly, so he ended up recommissioning Labor anyway.

The common theme is that if you're the incumbent government and you lose your majority, you're stuck holding the baby unless the opposition wants to govern in minority. And in Tassie, this is a big problem, because it means you govern for one more term and then get smashed at the election after, because voters here hate hung parliaments where the Greens have power.

Patrick Byrom
01-05-2021, 07:05 PM
The Tasmanian elections seems to be a question of whether the Liberals get a majority or falls short. A Labor majority seems highly unlikely, but given the lack of polling maybe we are in for a surprise. If there is no majority we will see which side, or, even both sides, try and form minority government and whether there is any changes in party leaderships during the process. Could be very interesting to watch.
Is a second election a real possibility if neither side forms minority government?There seems to be a significant swing against the Liberals - voters objecting to the early election, perhaps? So we could be in for a surprise. However Ellis is doing well in Braddon (so far).

Scott Colliver
01-05-2021, 07:24 PM
There seems to be a significant swing against the Liberals - voters objecting to the early election, perhaps? So we could be in for a surprise. However Ellis is doing well in Braddon (so far).

Not sure I am seeing a significant swing from the Liberals. They seem to be holding all of their seats so far. Still Clark and Franklin to come, with Clark being especially interesting.

Scott Colliver
01-05-2021, 07:36 PM
The ABC computer is now giving 11 seats to the Liberals, the question is whether they get 1 or 2 more

Scott Colliver
01-05-2021, 09:22 PM
I have seen enough, perhaps stupidly, to say that by far the most likely result is 13 seats and majority government for the Liberals. It just does not look like the two independents can both be elected in Clark, preferences flows need to be extremely precise for it to happen, far to much to be realistic.

While there are a couple of outside chances of losses in other seats it looks like Labor will lose 1 seat in Clark to an independent.

Patrick Byrom
01-05-2021, 09:46 PM
I have seen enough, perhaps stupidly, to say that by far the most likely result is 13 seats and majority government for the Liberals. It just does not look like the two independents can both be elected in Clark, preferences flows need to be extremely precise for it to happen, far to much to be realistic.
While there are a couple of outside chances of losses in other seats it looks like Labor will lose 1 seat in Clark to an independent.I'd say you're correct. Although pre-polls could still affect the final outcome. And having Brooks as the decisive vote may be an issue.

Felix Ellis is definitely elected, however. He was interviewed on the ABC, but didn't mention chess - although he would obviously have far more important things on his mind!

Kevin Bonham
02-05-2021, 04:06 PM
I'd say you're correct. Although pre-polls could still affect the final outcome. And having Brooks as the decisive vote may be an issue.

Felix Ellis is definitely elected, however. He was interviewed on the ABC, but didn't mention chess - although he would obviously have far more important things on his mind!

Felix has done fantastically well and I think he will win but I also think the ABC has called him in prematurely. Need to wait for the Rockliff surplus to make sure he is not overtaken on it by both Jaensch (more established incumbent) and Brooks. Even if he doesn't get back right away he's very likely to rejoin the parliament sooner or later as neither Rockliff nor Brooks would be likely to go full term.

Kevin Bonham
02-05-2021, 04:08 PM
While there are a couple of outside chances of losses in other seats it looks like Labor will lose 1 seat in Clark to an independent.

Yes it is a seat they had already lost during the term when Madeleine Ogilvie won very narrowly on Scott Bacon's recount then immediately moved to the crossbench, so they went to the election with only one in Clark.

Their vote in Clark is their worst vote in a single electorate ever. This is a seat held by Duncan Kerr federally for Labor 1987-2010 and he was unbeatable for most of that time.

My Clark postcount thread is here: http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/05/2021-tasmanian-postcount-clark.html Libs favoured but it's seriously messy.

Scott Colliver
02-05-2021, 06:36 PM
I have read all of Kevin's posts on the counts on his blog and would highly recommend everyone does so, this is the HIGHEST quality analysis possible on the results of the election.

MichaelBaron
03-05-2021, 01:20 AM
All in all: It is the first time in Tasmanian history I think that a political party won election 3 times in a row.

Kevin Bonham
03-05-2021, 08:56 AM
All in all: It is the first time in Tasmanian history I think that a political party won election 3 times in a row.

It is the first time in Tasmanian history that the Liberal Party has won 3 in a row. Labor once won ten in a row, and more recently won four in a row (1998, 2002, 2006, 2010) though the last was in minority.

My simulation last night had the Liberals winning the last seat in Clark by c. 800 votes so I'm reasonably confident they have a majority at this stage but it will be close.

Kevin Bonham
12-05-2021, 11:19 PM
The Liberal Party has won a majority, winning the second seat in Clark for Madeleine Ogilvie.

Felix Ellis has had a roller-coaster ride in Braddon. He did badly on the Rockliff surplus then did well off one minor Liberal then badly off another one and now he's 205 votes behind Roger Jaensch. Nearly all the preferences that will reach the Liberals from here come from Craig Garland (IND) and there may not be that many of those.

The ABC's call of him as elected on the night has proved to be reprehensibly premature whether he wins or not.

Ian Rout
13-05-2021, 10:15 AM
The ABC's call of him as elected on the night has proved to be reprehensibly premature whether he wins or not.It wasn't really clear how Ellis was "Re-elected" while Brooksy with similar (and at times more) votes was "Possible". I thought maybe they seconded a redundant member from the arts section who couldn't figure out the system.

Kevin Bonham
14-05-2021, 11:22 AM
Adam Brooks will not be taking his seat. He has been charged by Queensland police with weapons and document offences and is receiving mental health treatment. It is very likely his seat will go to Ellis on a recount.

Patrick Byrom
14-05-2021, 11:50 AM
Adam Brooks will not be taking his seat. He has been charged by Queensland police with weapons and document offences and is receiving mental health treatment. It is very likely his seat will go to Ellis on a recount.Does that make Ellis the Steven Bradbury (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Bradbury) of Tasmanian politics :)

Ian Rout
14-05-2021, 01:59 PM
Does that make Ellis the Steven Bradbury (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Bradbury) of Tasmanian politics :)At least one other has done the same thing recently, Kevin would know if there are others. But not really as spectacular as Bradbury doing it from last place.

Kevin Bonham
14-05-2021, 07:03 PM
Does that make Ellis the Steven Bradbury (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Bradbury) of Tasmanian politics :)

He was a Bradbury in the previous term because he was the Liberal who finished last at the election yet finished up in parliament. But this election he was only a few hundred votes short of election and there were two other Liberal candidates who were quite well credentialled behind him. He's done a great job of building his appeal in a very short time. The other Bradbury was John Tucker in Lyons and he has been re-elected.

In 2006 Labor in Franklin ran two nonentities as the 4th and 5th candidates with the idea being to minimise leakage by concentrating their vote in their top three. Two of the three elected MPs ended up resigning and both the backup candidates were elected.

MichaelBaron
28-05-2021, 08:44 PM
NSW Labor appears to be in direstrates ....

Kevin Bonham
02-06-2021, 09:38 PM
The recount's not going very well for Ellis - he is 649 votes ahead with one candidate to be excluded, but it's possible Sheehan could beat him from there based on geographic, gender and recount structure factors. We will find out tomorrow if he is back or not. (If not this time there may be another resignation later in the term sometime.)

Kevin Bonham
02-06-2021, 09:41 PM
NSW Labor appears to be in direstrates ....

Yes, Daley vs Minns for leader, hardly an appealing choice. Lucky for them the election isn't til 2023 because if it was now they'd lose a fair few seats.

Their Upper Hunter result was genuinely bad too; they didn't just lose votes to indies but there's a fair bit of evidence they lost them to Nationals and One Nation as well. The seat has a history of usually being close when there is a new candidate and in a by-election they should have got much closer than that.

Kevin Bonham
03-06-2021, 11:54 AM
The recount's not going very well for Ellis - he is 649 votes ahead with one candidate to be excluded, but it's possible Sheehan could beat him from there based on geographic, gender and recount structure factors. We will find out tomorrow if he is back or not. (If not this time there may be another resignation later in the term sometime.)

Felix unexpectedly increased his lead on the final count and won by 749 votes so chess talent is returned to parliament after a break of just over a month.

Ian Rout
03-06-2021, 02:28 PM
Felix unexpectedly increased his lead on the final count and won by 749 votes so chess talent is returned to parliament after a break of just over a month.Just an amusing thought - if there is a later vacancy (for instance Rockliff retires), is Brooksy entitled to contest the recount on the basis that he was a candidate, or are you deemed to have had your chance once you've been elected?

Kevin Bonham
03-06-2021, 03:13 PM
Just an amusing thought - if there is a later vacancy (for instance Rockliff retires), is Brooksy entitled to contest the recount on the basis that he was a candidate, or are you deemed to have had your chance once you've been elected?

Only candidates not elected at the original election are entitled to contest a recount so Brooks is out for the rest of this term now, as he was in the previous term. On my reading a candidate who is elected on a recount then resigns (as Joan Rylah did last term) could still contest a recount later in the same term.

Kevin Bonham
04-06-2021, 12:55 PM
Michael Daley has withdrawn from the NSW Labor contest so Chris Minns is leader unopposed.

MichaelBaron
08-06-2021, 04:31 PM
Our ''fallen'' Premier
https://www.9news.com.au/national/liberal-party-demands-victorian-premier-daniel-andrews-answer-questions-about-his-fall-and-injuries/f275cf2a-3ae2-4146-a4a4-a26dfeb8a355

Ian Murray
08-06-2021, 05:54 PM
Our ''fallen'' Premier
https://www.9news.com.au/national/liberal-party-demands-victorian-premier-daniel-andrews-answer-questions-about-his-fall-and-injuries/f275cf2a-3ae2-4146-a4a4-a26dfeb8a355

‘Nonsense’: Victorian government demands apology after Liberals question Dan Andrews’ injury (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jun/08/nonsense-victorian-government-demands-apology-after-liberals-question-dan-andrews-injury)

Senior Victorian government ministers have demanded an apology from the Liberal party as the state opposition doubles down on unfounded suggestions the premier, Daniel Andrews, has covered up the circumstances of his serious back injury, and denies it is peddling conspiracy theories.

“I don’t think Dan Andrews drove the sub that took Harold Holt to China, he didn’t organise a fake moon landing,” the Victorian treasurer, Tim Pallas, said. “This is nonsense. We know it’s nonsense. It’s QAnon craziness peddled around the community to create an atmosphere of uncertainty.” ...

Kevin Bonham
30-06-2021, 11:36 PM
After only two weeks in the job, Tasmanian opposition leader David O'Byrne has stood aside pending investigation of sexual harassment and related allegations involving a female employee from the late 2000s before he was in parliament.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-30/labor-investigates-sexual-harassment-claims-against-david-obyrne/100253560

Blunderbuss
30-06-2021, 11:47 PM
After only two weeks in the job, Tasmanian opposition leader David O'Byrne has stood aside pending investigation of sexual harassment and related allegations involving a female employee from the late 2000s before he was in parliament.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-30/labor-investigates-sexual-harassment-claims-against-david-obyrne/100253560

Does that mean ‘Winter is coming’ after all?

idledim
01-07-2021, 08:42 AM
Does that mean ‘Winter is coming’ after all?

I'm more Broad - minded! Question: has David O'Byrne set a new all time States, Territories and Commonwealth leadership tenure record? And in the meantime, for those who blinked, here is a flattering photo of your man O'Byrne, pictured with sister Michelle:

Patrick Byrom
01-07-2021, 02:54 PM
I'm more Broad - minded! Question: has David O'Byrne set a new all time States, Territories and Commonwealth leadership tenure record?According to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Australia), Frank Forde was PM for a whole week, between the death of Curtin and the appointment of Chifley. But I'm sure we can do better than that :)

idledim
01-07-2021, 03:12 PM
According to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Australia), Frank Forde was PM for a whole week, between the death of Curtin and the appointment of Chifley. But I'm sure we can do better than that :)

But was Forde ever leader of the ALP? I thought Forde had the honour of being the only Australian PM who was never the leader of his party ...

Patrick Byrom
01-07-2021, 04:49 PM
But was Forde ever leader of the ALP? I thought Forde had the honour of being the only Australian PM who was never the leader of his party ...Acting Leader of the Labor Party (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaders_of_the_Australian_Labor_Party) - if that counts.

idledim
01-07-2021, 05:44 PM
Acting Leader of the Labor Party (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leaders_of_the_Australian_Labor_Party) - if that counts.

Not sure it does! From the Wikipedia entry for Forde:

He was appointed as prime minister with the understanding that he would resign if the Labor Party elected someone other than him as leader at its next caucus meeting. Forde was the Labor Party's sixth prime minister. He is the only Australian prime minister to have never led a political party.

Kevin Bonham
01-07-2021, 05:45 PM
I'm more Broad - minded! Question: has David O'Byrne set a new all time States, Territories and Commonwealth leadership tenure record?

Not in terms of territory Opposition Leaderships. Even excluding obvious interim leaders and leaders whose leadership was immediately before or after a spell as Premier (or both) there was a case in the ACT where Craig Duby, a crossbencher, was Opposition Leader for less than a day. There was also a weird case in the NT last year where Terry Mills may or may not have been Opposition Leader for a day or a few days (my view is he wasn't).

Also in terms of party leaderships the CLP in the NT had another weird case where Willem Westra van Holthe announced at 1 am that he had rolled Adam Giles for the CLP leadership and was hence going to become Chief Minister, but Giles refused to resign as Chief Minister and there were doubts about whether the parliament would accept the new leader as Chief Minister so the spill was reversed on the same calendar day.

However assuming O'Byrne doesn't come back I believe he will be the shortest serving Opposition Leader or ALP leader of a state or federally, excluding interim leaders and leaders immediately before or after being Premier/PM. He will take both records from William Dartnell Johnson, leader of the WA Labour Party (as then spelled) and WA Opposition between 4 and 27 October 1905. Johnson became leader in the leadup to an election at which he lost his seat. (Despite this Johnson later returned to the parliament in two spells for a total of over 35 years, but never again became leader.)

Ian Rout
02-07-2021, 12:07 PM
I'm more Broad - minded! Question: has David O'Byrne set a new all time States, Territories and Commonwealth leadership tenure record?He hasn't resigned yet, but his position seems untenable. Most likely will quit after having the weekend to think about it or when the next big covid news story gives some cover.

The trouble with Broad or Winter is the baggage that their own party didn't want them in the recent past, though that might be an advantage if the Party could bring itself to use it in advertising. But why not bring Bec back - nobody dislikes her and the guy who lusted (so to speak) after her job is out of the way.

MichaelBaron
02-07-2021, 12:44 PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_O'Byrne
David O'Byrne appears to be having a background in Union Work....fighter for social justice I guess...

Patrick Byrom
02-07-2021, 03:33 PM
He hasn't resigned yet, but his position seems untenable. Most likely will quit after having the weekend to think about it or when the next big covid news story gives some cover.He's 'standing aside' at present. Maybe he's aware of the current record (which Kevin mentioned above), and is trying not to break it? Or holding out for Barty to win Wimbledon, so his resignation won't be noticed :)

Kevin Bonham
16-09-2021, 01:58 AM
I am seeing a lot of contemptible media idiocy (Sky especially) about WA Labor's announcements on upper house electoral reform.

The proposed changes scrap the undemocratic Group Ticket Voting system and scrap severe rural malapportionment that was shovelling undeserved seats to the WA Nationals. They are entirely principled (perhaps going a little too far in that direction at the expense of practicality, but we will see) and come following the work of an expert panel. They are not a "grab for power", they are a grab for equality and a fair electoral system.

Especially, if WA Labor was rorting the system for itself it would not support a single statewide electorate with a very low quota that will lead to a diverse crossbench and remove the advantage major parties often have in systems broken up into divisions.

Desmond
17-09-2021, 07:42 AM
Worth the 3min watch.

Steven Miles burns George Christensen in Qld Parliament over Ivermectin. Champagne Comedy (https://www.reddit.com/r/friendlyjordies/comments/pp57nk/steven_miles_burns_george_christensen_in_qld/)

Ian Murray
17-09-2021, 09:02 AM
worth the 3min watch.

steven miles burns george christensen in qld parliament over ivermectin. Champagne comedy (https://www.reddit.com/r/friendlyjordies/comments/pp57nk/steven_miles_burns_george_christensen_in_qld/)

rofl !

Scott Colliver
01-10-2021, 01:13 PM
Goodbye Gladys, resigned from parliament following an announcement of an icac investigation

Ian Murray
01-10-2021, 01:17 PM
She's a dead duck

It took a while for the axe to fall, but Glad has now stood down, prior to resigning as Premier and from parliament, while an ICAC investigation into her dubious grant approvals runs its course

Gladys Berejiklian resigns as NSW Premier after ICAC probe into her relationship with Daryl Maguire announced (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-01/icac-investigating-gladys-berejiklian-daryl-maguire/100506956)

MichaelBaron
01-10-2021, 10:33 PM
This is a classic...Andrews who is has been giving hotel quarantine contracts to the ''right people'' is fine to stay but someone is resigning over personal relationship with someone - while there is no evidence of her being corrupt.

Ian Murray
02-10-2021, 07:27 AM
- while there is no evidence of her being corrupt.

And you know this how? ICAC hasn't released its findings yet.

MichaelBaron
02-10-2021, 10:17 AM
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/what-a-farce-berejiklian-made-bad-decision-in-resigning/ar-AAP2eKz?ocid=msedgntp
I agree: Should have not resigned

MichaelBaron
02-10-2021, 10:18 AM
And you know this how? ICAC hasn't released its findings yet.

Innocent unless found guilty. Isn't it how how it work with Labor? Andrews holding on with his teeth to his role denying responsibility for hotel quarantine. Wish he was a bit slimmier so ladies would like him more - may be we would get rid of him after all :).

Ian Murray
02-10-2021, 11:37 AM
Innocent unless found guilty.

Not so fast. You said there was no evidence against her. How do you know?

Ian Murray
02-10-2021, 03:15 PM
Former NSW Auditor-General on trust in governments:


http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/news/video/202110/NOLs_TonyHarris_0110_1000k.mp4?fbclid=IwAR1zzTah2i k1Am4mN87i9Q0FaHk55wlAFg35XCstgkcz7gvY6-rbyefbfM8

Kevin Bonham
02-10-2021, 04:27 PM
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/what-a-farce-berejiklian-made-bad-decision-in-resigning/ar-AAP2eKz?ocid=msedgntp
I agree: Should have not resigned

Supposedly pro-Liberal people who are criticising Berejiklian for resigning need to walk a mile in her shoes. There are three possibilities here:

1. She is guilty. In this case she should obviously resign.

2. She is not guilty as alleged, but the investigation will nonetheless reveal inappropriate conduct at some lower level. In this case she should also resign.

3. She is innocent and will eventually be cleared. In this case the alternative would be to stand aside while the matter is investigated. But in this case that leaves NSW with a temporary Premier or Acting Premier during a pandemic crisis, one who will have to hand the position back to Berejiklian at a time that is unknowable. As Berejiklian said in her resignation speech this is not the time for this sort of thing as a state leads stable leadership during a pandemic. A further complication is that Berejiklian caused this situation to arise by conducting a relationship with a fellow MP and a disreputable one at that. If she stood aside there is no guarantee she would be given the leadership back, which could lead to still more turmoil and speculation of a sort that is very distracting in a pandemic.

In terms of continuing as a local MP, a former leader on the backbenches is a distraction. The government would come under continuing pressure to move her to the crossbench. Her circumstances are now completely different to those in which voters in her seat elected her. Plus, she is only 51 and time mucking around on the backbench is time she could spend clearing her name and preparing for a future career.

She has done the right thing by her party.

Garvinator
04-10-2021, 02:48 PM
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/gladys-berejiklian-approached-by-senior-liberals-to-run-in-federal-seat-of-warringah/ar-AAP6EIw?ocid=winp1taskbar

It is understood that the prime minister, Scott Morrison, is backing the plan to run Berejiklian in Warringah, which would give the Coalition a strong chance of taking back the blue-ribbon seat, currently held by independent Zali Steggall.

MichaelBaron
05-10-2021, 12:23 AM
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/gladys-berejiklian-approached-by-senior-liberals-to-run-in-federal-seat-of-warringah/ar-AAP6EIw?ocid=winp1taskbar

It is understood that the prime minister, Scott Morrison, is backing the plan to run Berejiklian in Warringah, which would give the Coalition a strong chance of taking back the blue-ribbon seat, currently held by independent Zali Steggall.

If this happens...it will send a clear message about how ''unfit'' people find her as a leader...

Kevin Bonham
13-10-2021, 12:27 AM
Amazing scenes in the SA Parliament with the Speaker removed and Dan Cregan (who quit the government a few days ago) installed as Speaker instead.