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Desmond
16-04-2014, 02:34 PM
NSW Premier has resigned over a (very expensive) bottle of wine. How often has a Premier anywhere done that? I suspect never before.
I think it was more about the lying than the wine.

Kevin Bonham
16-04-2014, 06:07 PM
One former Tasmanian journo reckoned that if this happened in Tasmania it wouldn't rank among the top ten scandals that have occurred here without anyone resigning! Some Queenslanders have had similar struggles coming to terms with such a notion of accountability.

Kevin Bonham
16-04-2014, 06:15 PM
A bit off topic, but in upstate New York last weekend, I met a Matt Smith. He was notable for being the only person there who spoke properly (everyone else spoke American), but he turns out to have been the youngest state MP elected when he won a Tassie parliamentary seat for the Liberals in 1998 at age 20.

I remember him as being a very IT-savvy candidate. He did rather well to get elected in 1998 since that was the election when the House was reduced in numbers. Unfortunately before the 2002 election his father was charged with stealing money that may have been used to fund his campaign; Smith retired as a result but as it turned out his father was acquitted.

Desmond
16-04-2014, 06:45 PM
One former Tasmanian journo reckoned that if this happened in Tasmania it wouldn't rank among the top ten scandals that have occurred here without anyone resigning! Some Queenslanders have had similar struggles coming to terms with such a notion of accountability.I struggle to come to terms with the notion that resigning doesn't mean resigning - is there something about the scandal that means he is not fit to be premier but is fit to be Western Sydney's representative?

Kevin Bonham
16-04-2014, 07:57 PM
I struggle to come to terms with the notion that resigning doesn't mean resigning - is there something about the scandal that means he is not fit to be premier but is fit to be Western Sydney's representative?

I wonder how long that will last.

Kevin Bonham
17-04-2014, 10:41 AM
Commiserations to NSW for the next couple of years (and given the Opposition Leader you now have, I suspect beyond, not that he'd be much chop as Premier either). Looks like you're getting an Abbott clone as your Premier.

Capablanca-Fan
17-04-2014, 11:31 AM
Commiserations to NSW for the next couple of years (and given the Opposition Leader you now have, I suspect beyond, not that he'd be much chop as Premier either). Looks like you're getting an Abbott clone as your Premier.

Better than the Fraser or Turnbull clone who resigned, and better than the current and previous Fraser/Turnbull clone in Vic.

Kevin Bonham
17-04-2014, 06:51 PM
Mike Baird was keynote speaker at the Christian Democrats national conference last year. Oh well, I suppose that's better than voting for them a la Joe Bullock.

Kevin Bonham
18-04-2014, 12:03 AM
Baird was very far from convincing re di Giralamo on 7:30. Fortunately for him that was on the ABC which is most watched by lefties who wouldn't vote for him anyway.

Berejiklian might have been the safer choice for distance from all the lobbying nonsense but the right was having none of it. Also being anointed by B O'F probably counted against her.

Adamski
18-04-2014, 11:18 PM
Yes. I have heard that Baird is a committed Christian. I hope he does well as our state Premier,

Adamski
18-04-2014, 11:21 PM
I think it was more about the lying than the wine.

Rather than outright lying, I would say as O'Farrell did - a (rather large) "memory lapse". But no matte how busy one is in his first week as Premier, one should recall the rceipt of avdery expensive bottle of wine and the penning of a thank you note for it. O'Farrell realised this and felt the only honourable thing to do was to resign.

Desmond
19-04-2014, 08:36 AM
Rather than outright lying, I would say as O'Farrell did - a (rather large) "memory lapse". But no matte how busy one is in his first week as Premier, one should recall the rceipt of avdery expensive bottle of wine and the penning of a thank you note for it. O'Farrell realised this and felt the only honourable thing to do was to resign.
I would expect that even if he genuinely did not remember at first, then the note would jog the memory. I mean surely having the note in your hand would bring the memory back. He claims not. I find that simply unbelievable.

Garvinator
19-04-2014, 11:23 AM
I would expect that even if he genuinely did not remember at first, then the note would jog the memory. I mean surely having the note in your hand would bring the memory back. He claims not. I find that simply unbelievable.
The whole sequence is rather ridiculous and it is why he had to resign. Barry O'F was asked by a journalist from the Daily Telegraph in March about the bottle of wine from Nick Di Girolamo and he refused to answer the question.

Whilst not answering the question to the Daily Tele is not surprising, surely a question from a journo about links between a high profile lobbyist and the Premier would have sparked an immediate investigation from the Premier inside his office about any recorded links between the two. Especially considering that AWH was before ICAC and that it was possible that Barry O'Farrell could be called in connection to that.

It is possible that he has since forgotten about the wine, does make you think about what other gives he has received since then, but why did he not update the gift register? That is the key point in all this. Had he updated the gift register as he is supposed to do, it would have sparked questions from journalists and also from NSW Labor Party in Parliament about the connections between BOF and Nick/AWH. Did Barry forget to update the gift register innocently, or because he had something to hide and did not want further questioning about the matter in 2011.

Here is an article that gives some background into the murky dealings and does raise questions as to why he did not update the gift register: http://www.wendybacon.com/tag/barry-ofarrell/ Whilst I do not know much about Wendy Bacon, the point of the blog does raise a lot of questions that should be answered and do give some plausible reason as to why the gift register was not updated.

Anyone who says that a Premier has resigned over a bottle of wine and what an over-reaction have really missed the point. He did not update the gift register. Why not? And when asked by the Daily Tele journo, did his office not make sure he had his story straight before ICAC? Or did Barry have the best story he could manage to say before ICAC, and it was just an unlucky note that undid him. Because without that note, he probably would still be Premier.

Kevin Bonham
28-04-2014, 02:07 PM
My take on recent Queensland polling:

Is Campbell Newman Actually In Trouble? (http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/is-campbell-newman-actually-in-trouble.html)

Sir Cromulent Sparkles
30-04-2014, 02:00 AM
Meanwhile, over here in the west, nothing is happening..................

http://m.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/troy-buswell-admits-wedding-crash-charges-fined-3100-banned-for-12-months/story-fnhocxo3-1226899182496

Desmond
30-04-2014, 07:32 AM
I'm sure he doesn't remember what he drank either. Don't suppose there's any chance of charging the damages to the taxpayer?

Sir Cromulent Sparkles
01-05-2014, 02:04 AM
I'm sure he doesn't remember what he drank either. Don't suppose there's any chance of charging the damages to the taxpayer?

In an ideal dystopia this would be best.

At least W.A. politicians resign in style and refuse to settle for the trivial matter of an accounting blemish over a bottle of plonk.

Well done W.A., well done !! :clap:

Adamski
02-05-2014, 10:09 AM
New NSW Premier Mike Baird going ok so far. Good mix of experience and youthful enthusiasm in his cabinet.

Kevin Bonham
02-05-2014, 11:07 AM
New NSW Premier Mike Baird going ok so far. Good mix of experience and youthful enthusiasm in his cabinet.

Let's see how long he keeps that cabinet intact.

Kevin Bonham
02-05-2014, 06:10 PM
Let's see how long he keeps that cabinet intact.

Thought so. Police Minister Mike Gallacher resigns.

Adamski
03-05-2014, 02:16 PM
Thought so. Police Minister Mike Gallacher resigns.I spoke a few hours too soon. At least the Libs have the decency to resign when they they are implicated in scandals re slush funds for their party's donations. I feel sorry for Gallacher who as he said spent his professoinal life (he was a policemen) fighting corruption and crime.

Kevin Bonham
03-05-2014, 03:08 PM
Couple of Legislative Council (Upper House) seats up in Tasmania today. The Liberals should win the vacant one very easily. The occupied one is more interesting - they've launched a massive attack on the incumbent declaring him to be a closet Green (accompanied with TV ads and robocalls and so on) but Legislative Council incumbents aren't easy to get rid of. Since 1960, 86% of all Legislative Council incumbents who recontested their seats have been returned; if you exclude those re-elected unopposed the figure is still 82%.

Kevin Bonham
03-05-2014, 11:29 PM
Big surprise in the above (to me at least): the Liberals got a bloody nose in both. The incumbent they targeted as a "closet Green" trounced them 60:40 despite the same electorate voting 59% Liberal in the state election. And the Liberal who was expected to easily win the other one is struggling - 5% ahead on primaries but at serious risk of losing to a right-wing indie on preferences.

Kevin Bonham
23-05-2014, 02:21 PM
LNP member for Stafford, Chris Davis, has resigned from the Queensland Parliament, apparently in protest against the LNP's new electoral laws. The LNP only has 7% to burn in this seat so this one is pretty much a gimmie for Labor or an indie at the by-election. It doesn't look like Davis is recontesting.

Garrett
23-05-2014, 04:34 PM
It doesn't look like Davis is recontesting.

If he wanted to remain in parliament could he not have just resigned from the LNP ?

Please excuse me if I am missing something !

Kevin Bonham
23-05-2014, 07:58 PM
If he wanted to remain in parliament could he not have just resigned from the LNP ?


Absolutely. It is rather mysterious. He's saying he can't represent his electorate in such a situation but there was no obvious obstacle to him doing so as an independent or even a backbencher. It may be that he feels bad about effectively endorsing the LNP by running for them only to have them behave as they have.

Certainly one way to pay back a government for not embracing your concerns.

Kevin Bonham
27-05-2014, 11:45 PM
Former SA Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith has got bored with Opposition (or just greedy) and ratted on his party to join the Labor frontbench as an "Independent Liberal".

george
28-05-2014, 12:26 AM
Hi All,
South Australian politics has not been boring since early 1970's. Martin Hamilton Smith joining the Labor front bench may or may not have something to do with a feud between the two ruling liberal dynasties in South Australia over 4 decades. Being a political analyst Kevin may fill you in if he is interested. I just find it fascinating how the state liberals seem to find new ways on a regular basis to implode. I dont think a hollywood scriptwriter could dream up some of the liberal stuff ups strategic and otherwise when facing an unloseable election.

Kevin Bonham
03-06-2014, 09:21 PM
Geoff Shaw getting ready to reject another fish because his enemy Ken Smith is threatening to cross the floor to expel him from parliament. So he says he wants to bring the government down.

Labor have said they will pass Napthine's budget but beyond that things are constitutionally messy.

Capablanca-Fan
06-06-2014, 03:05 AM
Queensland backs down on anti-speech union ‘transparency’ laws (http://freedomwatch.ipa.org.au/queensland-backs-down-on-anti-speech-union-transparency-laws/)
by Chris Berg on June 5, 2014

Good news out of Queensland this morning. The Newman government has quietly shelved its union ‘transparency’ speech restrictions. The restrictions required unions to run ballots of its members for permission to start political campaigns.

Capablanca-Fan
10-06-2014, 03:24 AM
Surprise, surprise: power is cheaper where providers must please customers instead of pleasing politicians and bureaucrats.

Privatised power cheaper, says report (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/privatised-power-cheaper-says-report/story-e6frg6n6-1226948700337#)
Mark Coultan, THE AUSTRALIAN JUNE 10, 2014 12:00AM

POWER prices have soared in the states where the electricity industry is owned by the government, but has fallen where it has been privatised, a new study has found.

As the NSW government begins the hard sell among its reluctant MPs to sell the state’s electricity transmission and distribution networks — or “poles and wires” — Premier Mike Baird assured prices would not rise under private ownership.

Desmond
10-06-2014, 07:58 AM
Surprise, surprise: power is cheaper where providers must please customers instead of pleasing politicians and bureaucrats.
How about water in SEQ?

Rincewind
05-08-2014, 12:58 PM
The Victorian election is warming up. So far the liberals have lost two candidates for social media related offenses.

First Aaron Lane: Liberal candidate forced to quit over inappropriate tweets (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-01/premier-asks-candidate-to-stand-down/5641212). It seems the offense was due to the tweets being homophobic and sexist.

Now a second liberal candidate is in trouble Victorian election: Liberal candidate Jack Lyons quits over 'offensive' comments posted on Facebook (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-04/liberal-candidate-jack-lyons-quits-over-offensive-comments/5647982).

If these sort of incidents continue Labor could wind up winning the Victorian election unopposed. :D

Capablanca-Fan
06-08-2014, 12:59 AM
The Victorian election is warming up. So far the liberals have lost two candidates for social media related offenses.

First Aaron Lane: Liberal candidate forced to quit over inappropriate tweets (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-01/premier-asks-candidate-to-stand-down/5641212). It seems the offense was due to the tweets being homophobic and sexist.

Now a second liberal candidate is in trouble Victorian election: Liberal candidate Jack Lyons quits over 'offensive' comments posted on Facebook (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-04/liberal-candidate-jack-lyons-quits-over-offensive-comments/5647982).

If these sort of incidents continue Labor could wind up winning the Victorian election unopposed. :D
Well, that's the problem with the appeasers in the Vic Coalition led by Denis Crapthine and before him by Red Ted Baillieu: trying to be Labor Lite by sucking up to the GayKK and the rest of the politically correct Gedankenpolizei is not even a politically astute strategy.

Rincewind
06-08-2014, 01:13 AM
Well, that's the problem with the appeasers in the Vic Coalition led by Denis Crapthine and before him by Red Ted Baillieu: trying to be Labor Lite by sucking up to the GayKK and the rest of the politically correct Gedankenpolizei is not even a politically astute strategy.

How are your plans to run for public office going?

Kevin Bonham
06-08-2014, 05:25 AM
Well, that's the problem with the appeasers in the Vic Coalition led by Denis Crapthine and before him by Red Ted Baillieu: trying to be Labor Lite by sucking up to [usual pejoratives snipped-KB] is not even a politically astute strategy.

Hmm, I recall the US Republicans a few years back and PUP in Tasmania's state poll as examples of forces that either couldn't or wouldn't disendorse people who said dumb things that caused social media outrage. Different issue range but did neither any good at all.

Vic Libs have enough problems without having to defend candidates saying dumb stuff on social media.

Hasimir
06-08-2014, 06:43 AM
The Victorian election is warming up. So far the liberals have lost two candidates for social media related offenses.

First Aaron Lane: Liberal candidate forced to quit over inappropriate tweets (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-01/premier-asks-candidate-to-stand-down/5641212). It seems the offense was due to the tweets being homophobic and sexist.

Now a second liberal candidate is in trouble Victorian election: Liberal candidate Jack Lyons quits over 'offensive' comments posted on Facebook (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-04/liberal-candidate-jack-lyons-quits-over-offensive-comments/5647982).

If these sort of incidents continue Labor could wind up winning the Victorian election unopposed. :D

Just as long as those anti-choice, anti-abortion zealots get the boot. Well, chances are the one from Frankston will, but the other dimwit is likely to retain his seat.

Hasimir
06-08-2014, 06:46 AM
Hmm, I recall the US Republicans a few years back and PUP in Tasmania's state poll as examples of forces that either couldn't or wouldn't disendorse people who said dumb things that caused social media outrage. Different issue range but did neither any good at all.

Vic Libs have enough problems without having to defend candidates saying dumb stuff on social media.

Don't forget the Family First candidate a few years back who said lesbians should be burned at the stake or something similar. That one was pretty far along the fringe, the lunatic fringe that is.

Sir Cromulent Sparkles
06-08-2014, 10:48 PM
Don't forget the Family First candidate a few years back who said lesbians should be burned at the stake or something similar. That one was pretty far along the fringe, the lunatic fringe that is.

Was it this guy ?

http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2008/03/13/steve_fielding_narrowweb__300x501,0.jpg

Capablanca-Fan
07-08-2014, 12:28 AM
Just as long as those anti-choice, anti-abortion zealots get the boot. Well, chances are the one from Frankston will, but the other dimwit is likely to retain his seat.

As opposed to the zealots for prenatal baby-butchery, like the professing Catholic Crapthine?

Hasimir
07-08-2014, 07:53 AM
Was it this guy ?

http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2008/03/13/steve_fielding_narrowweb__300x501,0.jpg

That's hilarious. If I recall correctly it was one of the QLD candidates.

Patrick Byrom
13-08-2014, 12:17 AM
Two more NSW Liberal MPs gone (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/12/liberal-mps-tim-owen-and-andrew-cornwell-quit-after-icac-admissions):

NSW MPs Tim Owen and Andrew Cornwell have resigned from parliament after Owen admitted lying to the Independent Commission Against Corruption. The former Liberal MPs have both been questioned by Icac about whether they took illegal donations from property developers.

The third season of the ABC show Rake is looking amazingly prescient: First NSW Labor politicians are convicted of corruption, then their Liberal replacements!

Kevin Bonham
13-08-2014, 03:32 AM
Owen's seat is very marginal and Cornwell's is on 10% so Labor would really hope to pick up both at by-elections.

Kevin Bonham
17-08-2014, 10:42 AM
Owen's seat is very marginal and Cornwell's is on 10% so Labor would really hope to pick up both at by-elections.

Incumbent government has decided not to contest either of its seats! A very rare decision.

Hasimir
17-08-2014, 07:57 PM
Incumbent government has decided not to contest either of its seats! A very rare decision.

Presumably they have enough of a majority to think they can weather it.

So will they be backing another minor party or simply running a negative campaign against their opposition with the assurance that there will be no blowback because they're not running candidates? If the latter, I don't think it will work, it'll all get archived to be trotted out in the future by the other side.

That reminds me, maybe one day I should check the archives. I know I've got an email somewhere from the founder of Family First denying that he's a Nazi or Nazi sympathiser after he spoke at a rally for groups like the Australian League of Rights (or whatever they're calling themselves these days), National Action and One Nation. Pretty sure I've got a defensive one from the Democrats trying to justify the preference flow which led to Steve Fielding getting into the Senate too. Who knows what else is lying around.

Kevin Bonham
25-08-2014, 12:43 AM
I was starting to think Napthine might still pull off what would be a historically unlikely victory but this week there have been a lot of signs of general unravelling and panic on the right, and a 55:45 to Labor Newspoll tonight isn't going to help matters any. All we need now is another big round of Geoff Shaw chaos and it will be fork time, though I'd think the Coalition can muster the discipline to at least shut him up efficiently.

I have some comments on recent Vic and Qld polling up at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/08/recent-victorian-and-queensland-polling.html

Capablanca-Fan
25-08-2014, 04:57 AM
I was starting to think Napthine might still pull off what would be a historically unlikely victory but this week there have been a lot of signs of general unravelling and panic on the right, and a 55:45 to Labor Newspoll tonight isn't going to help matters any.

Not surprising, since Crapthine refuses to do very much to differentiate himself from Labor--he loves abortion and restrictions on free speech as much as the socialists do.

Kevin Bonham
25-08-2014, 09:39 AM
Not surprising, since Crapthine refuses to do very much to differentiate himself from Labor--he loves abortion and restrictions on free speech as much as the socialists do.

Those who want to differentiate themselves from Labor on such issues - even to the extent of cutting deals with the very tainted vote of Geoff Shaw (who was one of their own) - are certainly not helping matters.

Napthine's biggest problems are instability and backlash against the federal government.

Kevin Bonham
10-10-2014, 10:30 AM
PUP have now lost both of the two Queensland ex-LNP MPs who joined the party, with Carl Judge joining Alex Douglas in now quitting to sit as an independent. They've also lost one of the three NT MPs who quit the CLP (he's gone back to the CLP).

antichrist
11-10-2014, 09:56 AM
PUP have now lost both of the two Queensland ex-LNP MPs who joined the party, with Carl Judge joining Alex Douglas in now quitting to sit as an independent. They've also lost one of the three NT MPs who quit the CLP (he's gone back to the CLP).

well that is about how long puppies stay with their mum, about a year at most

Kevin Bonham
11-10-2014, 05:53 PM
SA independent state MP Bob Such has died age 70. Such's seat is notionally Liberal but the Libs' polling has been a bit poor in SA lately so the by-election might be interesting should another independent run.

Adamski
11-10-2014, 10:28 PM
SA independent state MP Bob Such has died age 70. Such's seat is notionally Liberal but the Libs' polling has been a bit poor in SA lately so the by-election might be interesting should another independent run.RIP Bob Such. A State MP who sometimes was in the limelight.

Kevin Bonham
13-10-2014, 11:09 PM
SACA President George Howard is running for local council:

http://www.lga.sa.gov.au/lgcandidates?c=48073

He also ran in 2010 and polled reasonably but wasn't successful (third out of five for two vacancies.)

TCA Secretary Kevin Bonham is not running for local council but he is covering the Hobart Council elections, as well as scrutineering them and having been involved in auditing changes to the electoral system.

Kevin Bonham
18-10-2014, 11:46 PM
The Liberals have won the Vasse by-election for Buswell's old seat (no sniffing comments please!) in WA, though it was fairly close between them and the Nationals. Libs currently at 53.5% 2PP with a few postals to go.

Kevin Bonham
03-11-2014, 11:16 PM
I've opened my attempt to model the Victorian election here:

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/victorian-state-election-late-october.html

On current polling I am modelling the 2PP at 52.6% to Labor and the seat result that goes with that is around 48-40 to Labor. At this stage the Greens do not win seats assuming the Liberals again refuse to preference them (however if the Liberals change their minds then that will alter.)

ER
19-11-2014, 05:23 PM
Any latest predictions? Mind you I am more interested in the Noble Park Chess Club AGM / new committee elections to be held on the same day!

ER
19-11-2014, 05:38 PM
Pauline is back!

Kevin Bonham
19-11-2014, 07:09 PM
Any latest predictions?

My most recent run of the model was 53.2 to ALP and seats 49-39 but that is based on data that are now all at least nine days old, which is a very long time in an election campaign. My feeling is more likely closer than that but need more polls!

As for Hanson, she's a perennial celebrity candidate whose main aim in running is to score electoral funding. She might also believe she can bask in the reflection of the similar stupidity of Senator Lambie.

ER
20-11-2014, 12:06 AM
... My feeling is more likely closer than that but need more polls!...
In the event of a Labor Party win, we 'll be witnessing the event of a government losing a first term election after quite a few decades in Victoria. Do we have similar situations in other State / Territory elections?

Kevin Bonham
20-11-2014, 09:56 AM
In the event of a Labor Party win, we 'll be witnessing the event of a government losing a first term election after quite a few decades in Victoria. Do we have similar situations in other State / Territory elections?

In the last sixty years seven (22%) out of 32 state governments seeking their first re-election have lost. The most recent examples were the Borbidge government in Queensland in 1998 (it hadn't even served a full first term) and the Field Labor minority government in Tasmania in 1992.

First-term governments have had higher defeat rates if any of the following are true:

1. They are the same party as the federal government of the time.
2. They did not have a majority when they sought re-election.
3. They had a mid-term change of Premier.

I think based on historical evidence it will be a minor miracle if the Napthine government retains, though I don't completely rule it out as the polling is still reasonably close.

ER
20-11-2014, 07:05 PM
In the last sixty years seven (22%) out of 32 state governments seeking their first re-election have lost. The most recent examples were the Borbidge government in Queensland in 1998 (it hadn't even served a full first term) and the Field Labor minority government in Tasmania in 1992.

First-term governments have had higher defeat rates if any of the following are true:

1. They are the same party as the federal government of the time.
2. They did not have a majority when they sought re-election.
3. They had a mid-term change of Premier.

I think based on historical evidence it will be a minor miracle if the Napthine government retains, though I don't completely rule it out as the polling is still reasonably close.

Obviously then Victoria must hold the record for continuous two term state governments since the '50s (?)
Excellent historical information as well as very interesting statistical data!
Thanks for providing!

Kevin Bonham
20-11-2014, 09:14 PM
Obviously then Victoria must hold the record for continuous two term state governments since the '50s (?)

It shares it with NSW. In that time WA has had one one-term government, Queensland has had one (not even a full term actually), Tasmania has had two and SA has had three. I used sixty years ago as the cutoff because before then things get messy in Vic especially with all the Country/Liberal three-cornered instability.

Kevin Bonham
24-11-2014, 09:43 PM
Posts moved

Posts concerning proposed Victorian Labor anti-discrimination laws, the response of the Rev Dr Mark Durie to them, and the usual generic discussion that such posts lead to, have been moved here:

http://www.chesschat.org/showthread.php?15698-Vic-Labor-s-proposed-anti-discrimination-laws

Kevin Bonham
29-11-2014, 05:27 PM
I'm doing live comments on the Vic election at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/victorian-election-live-election-day.html

ER
29-11-2014, 07:02 PM
I'm doing live comments on the Vic election at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/victorian-election-live-election-day.html

Excellent discussion, I follow closely! not so much out of interest in party politics but definitely for strength and clarity of ideas expressed!

PS I would also suggest to Dr Bonham blog's readers to keep on refreshing / reloading the page since it (at least in my case) does not refresh / reload itself

Patrick Byrom
29-11-2014, 07:53 PM
Excellent discussion, I follow closely! not so much out of interest in party politics but definitely for strength and clarity of ideas expressed!
PS I would also suggest to Dr Bonham blog's readers to keep on refreshing / reloading the page since it (at least in my case) does not refresh / reload itself
Kevin's blog is indeed excellent, but the Victorian election is effectively over: one first term LNP government down, three (well, probably only one) to go!

Rincewind
29-11-2014, 10:48 PM
Yes healthy swing to Labor resulted in the Lib/Nats getting tossed out after only one term. Labor should be able to control the lower house in their own right but will have to manage a multifaceted coalition to get bills through the upper house.

Kevin Bonham
29-11-2014, 11:29 PM
Yes healthy swing to Labor resulted in the Lib/Nats getting tossed out after only one term. Labor should be able to control the lower house in their own right but will have to manage a multifaceted coalition to get bills through the upper house.

The good news is it looks like they only need the support of the Greens and the Shooters and Fishers to pass legislation.

That is if they can find anything those two agree on!

Capablanca-Fan
30-11-2014, 02:04 AM
Well done Crapthine. You spent your premiership appeasing the abortionists, the homosexuals, and the Islamists, bleating about the Federal Government repealing 18C as they promised, and in general being Labor-Lite, and look where it got you! Vic Coalition needs a lot of house-cleaning, so next time they can provide an alternative to Labor instead of a poor imitation.

Goughfather
30-11-2014, 04:48 AM
Well done Crapthine.

If we needed any more evidence that Jono has the maturity of an eight year-old, here it is.

Kevin Bonham
30-11-2014, 04:08 PM
Well done Crapthine. You spent your premiership appeasing the abortionists, the homosexuals, and the Islamists, bleating about the Federal Government repealing 18C as they promised, and in general being Labor-Lite, and look where it got you!

It got him exactly where my federal-state drag model said it would. Five months ago I showed and published (http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/what-kills-state-governments-age-or.html) that a combination of age of government and the party in power in Canberra predicted a c. 75% chance of seat losses for the Liberals at this election. As they had no margin to lose this meant probable defeat irrespective of polls or their record in government. It looks like their losses have landed either exactly or almost exactly on the model's median prediction of six seats.

When you add in the unpopularity of the federal government, which is also a drag factor, I think it's impressive that the Liberals were only narrowly beaten and not belted. I do however think that (i) the mostly strong Victorian economy (ii) Labor's risky tactics on the East-West link, contributed to that.

Of course it is especially amusing that the right will now try to blame the moderates for the result when a major contributing factor was the turbulence (resulting in the loss of the government's majority, Speaker and arguably first Premier) caused by an anti-abortionist nutcase.

Rincewind
30-11-2014, 05:47 PM
It seems odd that anyone would claim (from either side) that centrist policy lost an election. In a two party system the capture of the centrist vote is significant if not critical and if anything alienating the centrist voter will lose an election more often than not.

Kevin Bonham
30-11-2014, 06:44 PM
It seems odd that anyone would claim (from either side) that centrist policy lost an election. In a two party system the capture of the centrist vote is significant if not critical and if anything alienating the centrist voter will lose an election more often than not.

Typically so, with the caveat that it is a compulsory vote election, and especially so under compulsory preferences. In an optional voting election like in the US, a candidate seen as too centrist can lose votes because the base is not enthused to go out and vote for them.

There can sometimes be cases where a major party needs to position towards a flank to appease or deflate a fringe party but this isn't one of them. Howard's treatment of One Nation was an example of this.

Of course right-wingers often argue that the most right-wing candidates for their own party are the most electable but that left-wing candidates for the other party are not, which all makes very little sense.

Rincewind
30-11-2014, 08:10 PM
The other thing that might happen in some seats is bleeding votes to a less centrist alternative. Like Lib -> Country or Family First or ALP bleeding to Green. With the way preferences work this may lead to more minor party candidates getting up but in general they will work with the major party of the same persuasion and so while one or two members might find themselves out of a job, it won't change who can form government.

Yes non-compulsory voting might change the dynamic and perhaps that was a problem the Democrats suffered from at the last mid-terms.

jammo
30-11-2014, 08:42 PM
If we needed any more evidence that Jono has the maturity of an eight year-old, here it is.

I think you are being very unfair to 8 year-olds....

Capablanca-Fan
01-12-2014, 03:25 PM
Victorian election 2014: Liberal Party needs to take a long hard look at itself (http://m.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/victorian-election-2014-liberal-party-needs-to-take-a-long-hard-look-at-itself/story-fni0ffsx-1227140136980)
MICHAEL GIDLEY
HERALD SUN, 1 DECEMBER 2014

WHAT an utter disaster.

On 29 November, 2014, the State Coalition Government became the first Victorian government in more than half a century to be voted out of office after just a single term. Unfortunately for the Liberals, this outcome has made history for all the wrong reasons.

How did it come to this?

Quite simply, we did not stay true to the tried and tested principles upon which our party was founded — low taxation and an unashamedly pro-small business agenda.

A key yardstick of any credible Coalition government is how it manages the tax base.

Over the past four years, we didn’t even mark out a tax policy.

The economic strategy devised by former Treasurer Wells barely mentioned tax policy.

Instead, it focused on ramping up taxes and charges on families and businesses in a misguided attempt to mimic the tax-and-spend approach of the Government we defeated.

Labor-lite, delivered by a Liberal treasurer, was always going to fail.

The centre-Right of politics cannot and should not ever enter a spending war with our financially reckless foes.

Not only can we not win such a contest, but our political philosophy dictates that outcomes, rather than dollar signs, are the true determiners of effectiveness. In terms of articulating a clear small business agenda, we also failed to stay true to ourselves.

Second, the policy platform which delivered this loss must be rewritten to reflect our party’s core values. The Liberal Party is a party of the centre right.

The fertile political ground for us will always be on the right of centre, not the left.

As a result, we need to reconnect with the conservative and libertarian voters who have so effectively abandoned us.

If we cannot find a way to bring them back into the fold, we must work to lock in their voting preferences and political goodwill.

The Liberal Party is a party at its best when it knows itself and its supporters.

The last four years must serve as a reminder of what happens when we forget who we are and why we are here.

Ian Murray
01-12-2014, 09:02 PM
Victorian blame game brings more nasty static for end of Abbott’s parliamentary year (http://theconversation.com/victorian-blame-game-brings-more-nasty-static-for-end-of-abbotts-parliamentary-year-34841?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+1+De cember+2014+-+2141&utm_content=Latest+from+The+Conversation+for+1+Dec ember+2014+-+2141+CID_043f65b796f7aa9e7eb6886c6d97cc76&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=Victorian%20blame%20game%20brings%20more% 20nasty%20static%20for%20end%20of%20Abbotts%20parl iamentary%20year)
The Conversation
30 Nov 2014

....
The Liberals are fighting publicly over the federal contribution to Denis Napthine’s loss (on a two-party swing, according to ABC analyst Antony Green, of about 3.5% although there is no exact calculation at this stage) and the implications for the Abbott government.

Jeff Kennett was typically straight talking. “We hear the call for Australians to come aboard Team Australia but as far as the federal government has been concerned there has been no Team Liberal,” the former premier said. “There is no doubt their performance on a number of issues, particularly their handling of their budget has caused great concern throughout the electorate.”

Federal Liberals were trying to minimise or deny the extent to which Victorian voters had cast a reflection on the Abbott government. They say the state polls didn’t shift much in three years – which was going back well before Abbott became PM.

The truth lies in-between. Voters were unimpressed with the state government’s performance and disgusted with its chaotic parliament. But the federal budget, with its array of nasties (many of which haven’t even been passed because of the Senate) and the general style of the federal government played right into Labor’s hands.

Then there were the federal grenades that lobbed in the immediate run up to the election – including the decision to implement fuel excise indexation by regulation and last week’s shemozzle over the Medicare co-payment.

And how do those arguing there was no “anti-Abbott” element account for the fact that he was, as much as practical, kept out of the campaign, and made no appearance south of the Murray in the closing days, in contrast to Liberal deputy Julie Bishop who campaigned in two marginal seats on Friday?
....

Kevin Bonham
01-12-2014, 09:30 PM
Federal Liberals were trying to minimise or deny the extent to which Victorian voters had cast a reflection on the Abbott government. They say the state polls didn’t shift much in three years – which was going back well before Abbott became PM.

They should be looking at actual poll aggregation before saying such things. Here's an example graph:

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2014/11/2014-11-29-victorian-poll-trend.png

Could be argued though that Libs were behind solidly from late 2012 on except for the honeymoon period for switching to a new Premier.

Kevin Bonham
01-12-2014, 09:38 PM
Victorian election 2014: Liberal Party needs to take a long hard look at itself (http://m.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/victorian-election-2014-liberal-party-needs-to-take-a-long-hard-look-at-itself/story-fni0ffsx-1227140136980)
MICHAEL GIDLEY
HERALD SUN, 1 DECEMBER 2014

WHAT an utter disaster.

On 29 November, 2014, the State Coalition Government became the first Victorian government in more than half a century to be voted out of office after just a single term. Unfortunately for the Liberals, this outcome has made history for all the wrong reasons.

How did it come to this?

Quite simply, we did not stay true to the tried and tested principles upon which our party was founded — low taxation and an unashamedly pro-small business agenda.

Does Gidley really believe that new-right free-marketeers responded to the party being Labor-lite by preferencing the ALP? Does anyone?

People should just get over the first-term thing. Yes Victoria hasn't had a one-term government since the fifties but as I mentioned above other states had had seven in that time. As I didn't mention above, Victoria had had only four new governments since so to argue that a government lasting for only one term was something historically incredible is just silly. Plus with locked-in four-year terms, this was a longer single term than the other first-term governments in that time (Bolte and Cain 3 yrs, Bracks just over 3 years, Kennett 3 and a half.)

Rincewind
02-12-2014, 09:51 AM
Does Gidley really believe that new-right free-marketeers responded to the party being Labor-lite by preferencing the ALP? Does anyone?

It isn't about reality it is about creating a political scapegoat and neoconservatives like Gidley marking out their territory so that they can influence the party's platform justified by the "failing" of centrist policy. From ALP's perspective, the further right the Liberals move their base the better.

antichrist
02-12-2014, 10:28 AM
It isn't about reality it is about creating a political scapegoat and neoconservatives like Gidley marking out their territory so that they can influence the party's platform justified by the "failing" of centrist policy. From ALP's perspective, the further right the Liberals move their base the better.

If the see saw analogy could be used the further to the opposite end they go the more leverage they get - look how Abbott leant right over edge of see saw and dragged ALP down towards the centre pivot, i.e., more to the right, esp on refugee issue.

Rincewind
02-12-2014, 10:52 AM
If the see saw analogy could be used the further to the opposite end they go the more leverage they get - look how Abbott leant right over edge of see saw and dragged ALP down towards the centre pivot, i.e., more to the right, esp on refugee issue.

The refugee issue is an odd one on Australian politics. While I think the centre of Australian politics has moved right since Whitlam if a broad base party loses control of extreme ideologues of any persuasion then they are often punished at the ballot box. As Kevin said there is nothing the Libs could do to make the very conservative vote ALP or Green. So they are keeping their votes anyway one way or another. The Nationals are in a trickier position as they are losing out to independents and coalition partners and so losing influence in the coalition.

BTW Did any modelling predict Suzanna Sheed's win of Shepparton?

Kevin Bonham
02-12-2014, 11:04 AM
BTW Did any modelling predict Suzanna Sheed's win of Shepparton?

No. As the seat was notionally the second-safest in the state nobody polled it, and aggregated Ind/Others votes in polling will never pick up a single strong seat. All we could say was that this sort of thing might happen but the data did not make it clear. Morwell seemed the bigger risk of falling to an indie but in the end the swing there was to Labor and it wasn't quite enough. I thought there could be up to two non-major winners (there will be two) but more likely one or none. I did see the odd person on social media say they thought Shepparton might fall to an indie but that was as far as it went. I didn't even check the polling odds for the seat but I assume she was at 8-1 or something like that.

The Sheed campaign actually blew up out of nowhere - she announced she was running four weeks out and then Barnaby Joyce said some dumb blame-game stuff aimed at the Liberals in an interview.

antichrist
02-12-2014, 12:25 PM
The refugee issue is an odd one on Australian politics. While I think the centre of Australian politics has moved right since Whitlam if a broad base party loses control of extreme ideologues of any persuasion then they are often punished at the ballot box. As Kevin said there is nothing the Libs could do to make the very conservative vote ALP or Green. So they are keeping their votes anyway one way or another. The Nationals are in a trickier position as they are losing out to independents and coalition partners and so losing influence in the coalition.

BTW Did any modelling predict Suzanna Sheed's win of Shepparton?

so in effect on most issues it is the opposite of the see saw effect - if KB uses a seesaw analogy when political broadcasting I hope he mentions his mate AC

Thinking about a bit more all sorts of scenarios could be envisaged. When someone deserts a party they would gravitate towards the centre thereby lessening the weight of their ex party. If the opposing party changes position by sliding down the board a bit than one's own party has a hard crash landing on their backsides. A good model seesaw would be wonderful graphics with seats to attach members etc

And on election night just move one bod from one side to another and the seesaw moves a bit heavier accordingly

Ian Murray
02-12-2014, 06:02 PM
... As Kevin said there is nothing the Libs could do to make the very conservative vote ALP or Green. So they are keeping their votes anyway one way or another. ...

There is also nothing the Libs can do to halt the aging process - the very conservative bloc within the party are approaching their use-by date. See http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/05/15/gen-blue/

Capablanca-Fan
03-12-2014, 08:44 AM
EXCLUSIVE: Vic Young Liberal Executive Member Resigns In Disgust (http://www.menzieshouse.com.au/?p=5937)
by Tim Andrews on 1 December, 2014
Menzies House has obtained the following letter from Young Liberal Executive Team Member Marguerite Iliescu , resigning from the Liberal Party in disgust at how the Party has “completely betrayed its core principles and let down its base, and the Victorian people.”

Damien Mantach
State Director
Liberal Party of Australia (Victorian Division)
Level 3, 104 Exhibition Street
Melbourne VIC 3000
1 December 2014

Dear Mr Mantach,

I write to you today to resign my membership of the Victorian Liberal Party.

I am greatly saddened that I have become ashamed to be a member of the Liberal Party, which has completely betrayed its core principles and let down its base, and the Victorian people.

I understood the principles of the Liberal Party to be the inalienable rights and freedoms of all peoples, a lean government that minimises interference in our daily lives, and maximises individual and private sector initiative. Indeed, the Liberal Party’s national website states: “… we simply believe in individual freedom and free enterprise; and if you share this belief, then ours is the Party for you.” It is my view – and the view of many current members and members of staff whom I have spoken to – that the Liberal Party now obviously believes in nothing except perhaps the restriction of liberty and the electoral success of the Liberal Party.

I will no longer let my name, time, or labour be channelled into enacting the restriction and taxation that the Liberal Party now pursues almost exclusively.
In terms of being a “safe pair of economic hands” the Liberal Party has failed spectacularly. The Napthine Government certainly could not be accused of being “illiberal” in terms of expenditure – the election campaign consisted almost entirely of cash splashing and vote buying.

The parliamentary Party now violates individual freedom and hampers free enterprise as a matter of routine. The atrocious “unexplained wealth seizure” laws are a clear repudiation of the rule of law: a violation of the most basic principles of our legal system. The avid campaign against drug users does no more than exploit fear to promote the militant repression of the most vulnerable members of our society. The further suspension of late-night liquor licensing – besides betraying a fundamental distrust for individuals ability to exercise their liberty responsibly – is a blow to the entertainment industry, as is the extremely stupid ban on ‘cage-fighting’.

I am equally disturbed by the many and varied ways the Coalition has acted to limit personal freedoms: banning solariums, punitive tobacco reforms, not to also mention the completely unjustified removal of suspended sentences.

antichrist
03-12-2014, 11:00 AM
Well Jono Marguerite Iliescu wasn't very bright to begin with, fancy joining the LIbs if you had those expectations. Why didn't she mention the liberty to be free of religious brainwashing as a child and adult.

Kevin Bonham
03-12-2014, 02:00 PM
Her figure for the vote for non-Green micros isn't correct. Correct figure is about 19% (it's doubled compared to last time, but that's mainly because there are more micros running - LDP, PUP, AJP, S+F etc all did not run last time.)

Aside from that, resigning after the election strongly implies she wouldn't have resigned had they won. Everything she says was obvious to anyone coming from her ideological position before polling day. Amusing spray all the same.

The seat of Prahran is still up in the air - it is unclear which of Labor and the Greens will finish second and it is also very unclear whether either of them beats the Liberals if they do!

Capablanca-Fan
03-12-2014, 03:42 PM
The Liberal Loss We Had To Have (http://www.menzieshouse.com.au/?p=5946)
by Tim Andrews on 2 December 2014

Former Victorian Young Nationals President Nicholas Tam admits Victorians made the right decision on Saturday in rejecting a Liberal Party that abandoned their base, accepted every premise of the activist left, surrendered the moral high ground, and failed to make Labor defend their record or their underlying ideology:

Daniel Andrews’ victory on Saturday is just retribution for the State Coalition’s contemptuous betrayal of its base during the past four years.

At every juncture Ted Baillieu and Denis Napthine chose to offer succour to the Coalition’s ideological foes and disregarded the views of those who elected it in 2010. Placating bleeding heart lobbyists and desperately seeking friends among the ABC and Fairfax members of the press gallery took precedence over any attempt to rescue Victoria from a decade of trade union corporatism and Rob Hulls’ spider web of corrosive social engineering.

At the 2010 election Victorian voters handed the State Coalition a once-in-a-generation opportunity: the right to govern with a majority in the upper house. Government Senate majorities are rare in federal politics and will be equally rare under the current system of proportional representation Labor introduced in Victoria at the 2006 election.

This was a unique opportunity to recast state politics and create the institutional framework that would send Victoria in an irreversible direction of smaller government, greater freedom and renewed empowerment of local decision-making. A balanced budget amendment to the state constitution could have imposed real discipline on a future Labor government and made its vision of government as a perpetual-motion spendathon legally impossible.

Instead, the Coalition surrendered to the cultural Marxist paradigm where solariums and puppy farms warrant prohibition but the butchering of babies at 39 weeks by the multi-billion-dollar abortion industry represents the pinnacle of human progress.

Baillieu and Napthine stood idly by as a green-left lynch-mob bullied Professor Kuruvilla George into resigning from the Equal Opportunity and Human Rights Commission for daring to sign a petition against homosexual marriage in his personal capacity. Conservative voters rightly questioned the purpose of electing a Coalition who, like their Labor predecessors, demanded unswerving reverence for the usual set of cultural Marxist sacred cows from the public service.

Their velvet totalitarianism saw the State Coalition undermine George Brandis’ attempt to repeal section 18C, rendering free speech being as brittle as someone’s thin skin.

Kevin Bonham
06-12-2014, 10:56 PM
Major upset today in SA with Labor, widely given no chance, apparently winning the Fisher by-election and thereby majority government. The 2PP result of 50.9% to Labor reported on the night is apparently wrong based on transposed figures in one booth and Labor should actually be above 52. It appears they have beaten the independent Woodyatt but that is not completely clear-cut yet. Whatever the Liberals strongly appear to have lost.

(Prahran remains ridiculously close with all three candidates still in the hunt and a recount looking likely.)

Kevin Bonham
08-12-2014, 09:12 AM
I've written a piece placing the likely ALP victory in Fisher, if confirmed, in its historic context. There were some claims yesterday that it was unprecedented for a state government so old to be gaining seats in by-elections. It isn't quite, but to find precedents for that you have to go back to the early 1970s and before. And even then there aren't many of them. Surely Johnston has to take the fall for this and quit.

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/12/fisher-state-by-elections-and-federal.html

antichrist
08-12-2014, 10:53 PM
If Antony Green were to fall under the proverbial bus (whatever that means) could you sit in for him?

Kevin Bonham
08-12-2014, 10:55 PM
If Antony Green were to fall under the proverbial bus (whatever that means) could you sit in for him?

As it happens Antony is out of action for several weeks recovering from shoulder surgery at the moment.

I haven't yet tried doing a live broadcast of the kind Antony does - only live web commentaries (which are in some ways harder because you need to type so fast but in some ways easier because you don't have to talk coherently while also frantically processing data).

antichrist
08-12-2014, 11:00 PM
As it happens Antony is out of action for several weeks recovering from shoulder surgery at the moment.

I haven't yet tried doing a live broadcast of the kind Antony does - only live web commentaries (which are in some ways harder because you need to type so fast but in some ways easier because you don't have to talk coherently while also frantically processing data).

You could inform ABC etc of your interest but I know they have recognised faces for years. But I bet aren't some as keen or professional as yourself. That Karl Stepheniac guy don't know if he does elections but he is only a pretty face and not much else. So many news jobs now on ABC are females the male is almost the exception.

Kevin Bonham
08-12-2014, 11:02 PM
I don't look for work AC. It looks for me. :lol:

Kevin Bonham
09-12-2014, 04:21 PM
Big comeback by the Liberals in post-counting for Fisher - after a stellar performance on prepolls and postals they have now gone from 47.9% 2PP on the night to a 17-vote lead. Incredible recovery. But may be that the independent Woodyatt beats both from third as he has been closing in on Labor and might be able to pass them on the preferences of tiddlers. Anyway I got this one wrong, I did not expect the Liberals could come back by that much even with a large prepoll vote.

The Greens have knocked out Labor by 38 votes in Prahran in the race for second, subject to a possible recount. Labor were losing to the Liberals by 25 had they made the final two but that now appears academic. Now the Greens need 85.7% of Labor preferences to beat the Liberals. Tall order; they did say today they were getting 85.

Rincewind
09-12-2014, 04:23 PM
At about the same time I was posting this in the wrong thread.

The Libs might win Fisher yet...

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-09/surprise-turn-in-fisher-by-election-sees-liberals-ahead/5955358

antichrist
09-12-2014, 06:21 PM
Big comeback by the Liberals in post-counting for Fisher - after a stellar performance on prepolls and postals they have now gone from 47.9% 2PP on the night to a 17-vote lead. Incredible recovery. But may be that the independent Woodyatt beats both from third as he has been closing in on Labor and might be able to pass them on the preferences of tiddlers. Anyway I got this one wrong, I did not expect the Liberals could come back by that much even with a large prepoll vote.

The Greens have knocked out Labor by 38 votes in Prahran in the race for second, subject to a possible recount. Labor were losing to the Liberals by 25 had they made the final two but that now appears academic. Now the Greens need 85.7% of Labor preferences to beat the Liberals. Tall order; they did say today they were getting 85.


.2% is not a moot point in this case

Kevin Bonham
09-12-2014, 10:33 PM
As it turned out they got 87% and won by 262 votes - subject to a recount because of the close margin between the Greens and Labor at the earlier exclusion point.

antichrist
10-12-2014, 07:06 AM
As it turned out they got 87% and won by 262 votes - subject to a recount because of the close margin between the Greens and Labor at the earlier exclusion point.

If Labor had lost it they would have claimed a re-run of when the commos cost Calwell the election in 1961 though you dispute that interpretation. 87% shows how few Lib/NCP really care for the environment. But could be other non-environmental Green policies that turn them off.

Kevin Bonham
10-12-2014, 12:55 PM
If Labor had lost it they would have claimed a re-run of when the commos cost Calwell the election in 1961 though you dispute that interpretation.

I don't just dispute it; it is categorically false. Killen would have won had even 5% of voters for the Communists preferenced him. The Communists were not trying to cause Labor to lose and could not have caused their preferences to flow solidly enough to stop Killen winning even if they tried. There will always be a small number of voters who vote more or less randomly who happen to vote for any given party, or who voted for that party only because they knew its candidate, or who voted for that party and hated the Labor candidate and would otherwise have voted 1 Liberal (etc). There is absolutely no evidence that had the Communists not stood, Labor would have won the seat.


87% shows how few Lib/NCP really care for the environment. But could be other non-environmental Green policies that turn them off.

This is 87% of Labor voters preferencing the Greens; I don't think it's really an environmental thing, though in the inner city it might be. It's more a combination of half the ALP voters following the card and the other half disliking the tories. It's possibly the case that when Labor runs an openly gay candidate, voters who would otherwise have voted 1 Labor 2 Liberal become more likely to vote 1 for someone else.

By the way Labor is back in the lead in Fisher by 21 votes after a bunch of late postals ripped up the usual postals-favour-the-conservatives script.

Rincewind
10-12-2014, 01:31 PM
I was wondering if the "late postals" are late to be counted or late to be posted, or both. If late in terms of being closer to election day then the swing against libs could be related to the federal drag, submarine commentary, effect.

Kevin Bonham
10-12-2014, 02:28 PM
I was wondering if the "late postals" are late to be counted or late to be posted, or both. If late in terms of being closer to election day then the swing against libs could be related to the federal drag, submarine commentary, effect.

Late to be received - most likely posted late in the campaign period and from somewhere where the mail takes a while to arrive. It's notable also that not only did the Libs do badly on primaries on the late postals but they also did badly on preferences from them (in fact even worse than their booth vote). The number of these late postals is small (200) as well so this might just be a random thing and not for any real reason. A lot of it's being tied in to the Liberals not only having a bad time near the day, but also attacking Woodyatt near the day.

Kevin Bonham
11-12-2014, 09:34 PM
Katy Gallagher is quitting the ACT parliament to move to the Senate and Andrew Barr has taken over as Chief Minister. He is the first openly gay head of a state or territory government in Australian history.

ER
12-12-2014, 10:33 AM
Katy Gallagher is quitting the ACT parliament to move to the Senate and Andrew Barr has taken over as Chief Minister. He is the first openly gay head of a state or territory government in Australian history.

What's the exact story with Don Dunstan?

Rincewind
12-12-2014, 11:42 AM
What's the exact story with Don Dunstan?

The so called Monseigneur PorcoMadonna affair occurred after Dunstan's time as SA premier. It boiled down to a photo at a book launch which drew criticism from Jeff Kennett among others and lead to his resignation as Victorian Director of Tourism. At no time was Dunstan openly gay.

Capablanca-Fan
12-12-2014, 12:30 PM
Relevance Won Victoria For Labor (http://ipa.org.au/news/3218/relevance-won-victoria-for-labor)
Ideas & Liberty | John Roskam
Australian Financial Review 5 December 2014

The reason the Coalition lost the Victorian state election was not because it wasn't left-wing enough. And it wasn't because of Tony Abbott. It was because Labor had policies that were more relevant to more people - and Labor communicated the benefits of those policies more effectively.

The Baillieu/Napthine government couldn't have been more moderate, yet it still lost. The Victorian Coalition enthusiastically supported federal Labor's health and education policies, fought against restoring freedom of speech, and banned onshore gas exploration. While during the election campaign the Coalition (correctly) identified the industrial problems likely to emerge under a union-dominated state Labor government, it was the Baillieu government itself that in 2011 refused to direct the police to remove unlawful union pickets. The Coalition was so moderate it even banned solariums.

In truth, the Greens vote in Victoria is not very different from the rest of the country either. The Greens' vote for the lower house at the last state election in NSW in 2011 was 10.28 per cent. On Saturday in Victoria the Greens vote in the lower house was 11.02 per cent.

What is different about Victoria is that about 75 per cent of the state's population lives in a single city, Melbourne. This is a higher concentration in a single metropolitan area than any other state except South Australia. In NSW 64 per cent of people live in Sydney; in Queensland the figure is 48 per cent.

In Victoria the effect of this demographic concentration is that the impact of the Melbourne media, particularly the ABC and The Age, is magnified. What Victoria's state election has just demonstrated, though, is that what worries the ABC and The Age are not the things that decide elections in that state - no matter how much some people might wish it to be otherwise.

ER
12-12-2014, 12:51 PM
The so called Monseigneur PorcoMadonna affair occurred after Dunstan's time as SA premier. It boiled down to a photo at a book launch which drew criticism from Jeff Kennett among others and lead to his resignation as Victorian Director of Tourism. At no time was Dunstan openly gay.

thanks for that. I remember seeing him and his attractive companion (I think an Asian lady? [ed. here adding the ? since I wasn't sitting close to them]at a concert in Sydney Opera House in the early 90s (late 80s?). He got a tremendous applause from the crowd!

Kevin Bonham
12-12-2014, 12:58 PM
Relevance Won Victoria For Labor (http://ipa.org.au/news/3218/relevance-won-victoria-for-labor)
Ideas & Liberty | John Roskam[..]
In truth, the Greens vote in Victoria is not very different from the rest of the country either. The Greens' vote for the lower house at the last state election in NSW in 2011 was 10.28 per cent. On Saturday in Victoria the Greens vote in the lower house was 11.02 per cent.

That's misleading. In NSW 2011 the ALP government was awful and everyone wanted to kill it, which would have driven some Labor voters to the Greens.

A fairer comparison is the 2013 federal election - Green votes by state (Reps) ACT 13.4 Vic 10.8 WA 9.74 Tas 8.32 SA 8.28 NSW 7.95 NT 7.89 Qld 6.2. Green votes by state (Senate) ACT 19.27 Tas 11.66 Vic 10.84 WA 9.49 NT 8.67 NSW 7.79 SA 7.09 Qld 6.04. Victoria is the Greenest of the large states, possibly excepting WA where they have had a surge since the Senate by-election.

(The higher Green vote in the Senate in ACT is explained by strategic voting to try to get rid of the Liberal seat, while the difference in Tasmania's case is explained mainly by Andrew Wilkie taking Green votes in Denison.)

Also the Green vote in Vic has come up to 11.5 not 11.0 in late counting. (This is, incidentally lower than in every one of 17 published opinion polls in the campaign. I predicted it would be not more than 12.5.)

Something else to note is that the Greens' strategy in this election was to go all out to win Melbourne and Prahran at the cost of vote share in other seats. It worked; they won both.

Rincewind
12-12-2014, 02:47 PM
thanks for that. I remember seeing him and his attractive companion (I think an Asian lady? [ed. here adding the ? since I wasn't sitting close to them]at a concert in Sydney Opera House in the early 90s (late 80s?). He got a tremendous applause from the crowd!

Dunstan married at a fairly young age (well before seeking public office) and had a number of girlfriends prior to that so if there was in the closet he seemed to have been not exclusively homosexual. A bigger question mark hangs over William McMahon who only married much later in life, long after gaining public office, and there are number of rumours about his bachelor life. Of course he was not openly gay but the story goes that when he was in line to take over the head of federal libs that the then top national John McEwan was ready to walk away from the coalition because he "didn't trust McMahon", which many people interpreted that he did not want to work with a gay, even a closeted one. Although he also clashed with McMahon's politics so there is nothing definite in those rumours. Either way when Doug Anthony took over from McEwan the nationals objection to McMahon evaporated.

Rincewind
13-12-2014, 11:21 PM
Everyone is saying the ALP has won Fisher which gives Labor a lower house majority. However the result might be challenged.

Kevin Bonham
15-12-2014, 02:04 PM
Moderation Notice

antichrist is banned from this thread for three months for attempting to engage in backseat moderation. antichrist is also permanently banned from attempting to tell other posters that they are breaking CC rules, as he has persistently showed that he does not understand them. If he believes another poster is breaking the rules he may state this only on the moderation comments thread in the Help and Feedback section and absolutely not in any other post under any circumstances.

Kevin Bonham
15-12-2014, 02:17 PM
Everyone is saying the ALP has won Fisher which gives Labor a lower house majority. However the result might be challenged.

Yes, if there is a challenge then Labor will hold the seat in the meantime. They would only then cease to hold the seat if a court ordered that the seat be transferred to someone else or that a by-election be held.

There is a recount today and it's in theory possible the Liberals could claw back 23 votes. However they only gained three from checking of informals making the margin 20 at present; there are several formal votes being disputed.

Kevin Bonham
15-12-2014, 09:35 PM
Recount done - Labor wins Fisher by nine votes. May well go to court now.

Rincewind
15-12-2014, 11:23 PM
Recount done - Labor wins Fisher by nine votes. May well go to court now.

A landslide!

Kevin Bonham
22-12-2014, 11:03 PM
NSW Opposition Leader John Robertson may be about to get the boot after revelations that a few years ago he assisted the Lindt Cafe lunatic to attempt to gain Fathers' Day access to his children, without doing background checking on Mr Monis. Robertson has pleaded "“He operated under many aliases over many years [..] My staff do not have the capacity to do Google checks or check on individuals.” Given some of the Google checks I've done on candidates I think that's a pretty poor excuse.

Maybe this is objectively just a routine "constituency matter" but it's likely to be perceived very badly and Robertson is thoroughly useless anyway. But the new LO will have very little time to establish themselves with an election just over 3 months away.

Kevin Bonham
23-12-2014, 03:57 PM
Robertson resigns to avoid being booted.

Garvinator
06-01-2015, 02:30 PM
Campbell Newman's decision to go to the polls on January 31 has caught so many by surprise that even Kevin Bonham has been caught out :P

Kevin Bonham
06-01-2015, 04:11 PM
Campbell Newman's decision to go to the polls on January 31 has caught so many by surprise that even Kevin Bonham has been caught out :P

One thing I don't take predicting very seriously is election dates. But yes it's a surprise and a bloody nuisance for me, clashing with a long-established paid fieldwork commitment (that I wouldn't have been able to change even if I knew about the clash) and meaning I can't do on-the-night or immediate postcount coverage.

Sad to say there are still places in Tasmania that don't have internet.

Kevin Bonham
17-01-2015, 02:49 PM
There was a nonsense report in the Courier Mail today saying that a current Galaxy poll points to wildly uneven swings around the state and an ALP win.

It in fact points to less variation in swings than would be expected by random chance and is most consistent with Labor coming up short.

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/queensland-ashgrove-redcliffe-and-other.html

My current modelling has the LNP on about 48 seats (45 needed for majority) but this may change with more polls.

Garvinator
17-01-2015, 10:17 PM
Betfair, rather than bookies, currently have LNP at $1.10 to win and Labor at $6.40. Not many matched bets so far, so odds will change, but clearly those who are having to set their own odds believe that the LNP are going to win.

I can not find a seat by seat breakdown on betfair, perhaps some other sites have it. Would be worth counting up who is in front and working that out. The favourites in each seat usually do win. Remember in the 2013 Federal Election, 146/150 of the bookies favourites won, and the other four were 50/50 contests.

Kevin Bonham
17-01-2015, 10:57 PM
Remember in the 2013 Federal Election, 146/150 of the bookies favourites won, and the other four were 50/50 contests.

I don't advise remembering that since at least with regards to the final odds in 2013 it isn't true. As of late the night before the election they were wrong in 14 seats (listed here (http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/too-much-information-mixed-performance.html)) and fencesitting on another; I think one crossed back on election morning. Actually the seat odds when the bookies reset them following the return of Kevin Rudd were really good predictively; they got worse especially in the last few days when there was an irrational run to Coalition in the seat odds. Seat-betting odds were much more reliable about 10 years ago.

Sportsbet has full Queensland seat odds and Sportingbet has most of them. (Those are also discussed in my article linked in #870). A problem with seat odds for state elections is they don't see a lot of money. They initially reflect the modelling of the bookmakers (which is often rather good) and then they move as very small numbers of punters put money on them.

But for those who think bookie odds are all that predictive it is worth remembering that in South Australia the Liberals were $1.01 and lost.

Betfair odds are useful in that they eliminate the rake, but except on some of the big seats they struggle because often the bets offered are not matched because the other person seeks a different amount.

Garrett
20-01-2015, 12:42 PM
I'll have to go online later and see if I can back the ALP to beat PUP.

Garrett
31-01-2015, 05:32 AM
Well we're off to the polls !

Should be interesting tv tonight.

Who will win Cambell's seat ? No, not Ashgrove, the seat he will take when he loses Ashgrove.

Good luck to all !

ER
31-01-2015, 06:49 AM
Of what I gathered while staying for a bit more than a week at Buderim, I don't see Mr Steve Dickson (LNP) losing his seat!
Here's the lovely Serenity Waterfall in the area's rain forest.

http://i1230.photobucket.com/albums/ee481/jak_jak1/LOST%20IMG_4531_zpsbg2nzpol.jpg (http://s1230.photobucket.com/user/jak_jak1/media/LOST%20IMG_4531_zpsbg2nzpol.jpg.html)

It was the perfect place for a bit of relaxation and rest after my visit to Bangkok!

Photo: Elliott Renzies

Ian Murray
31-01-2015, 08:57 AM
watch?v=64Lp1c16tfU

Garrett
01-02-2015, 04:22 AM
Did anyone have a bet on Labor winning outright ?

What odds were they at ?

Ian Murray
01-02-2015, 04:57 AM
Did anyone have a bet on Labor winning outright ?

What odds were they at ?

Name your own price - impossible odds.

NSW (Tony Abbott's home state) votes on 28 March - there will be some nervous number-crunching in the Lib party room between now and then.

It is noteworthy that the Queensland border was closed to Abbott during the campaign. How long he keeps his job is now a matter of time.

Agent Smith
01-02-2015, 08:25 AM
How sweet was that :) I went to a very Green tinged dinner party and soaked up the ABC's coverage.

idledim
01-02-2015, 08:40 AM
Wish i could play chess as well -

29/01/2015 05:52 PM
Winning Party (Party of Premier)
2:(Straight Bet) Labor @ 7.00
$10.00 -
29/01/2015 01:14 PM
Winning Party (Party of Premier)
2:(Straight Bet) Labor @ 6.00
$8.00

ER
01-02-2015, 03:57 PM
Of what I gathered while staying for a bit more than a week at Buderim, I don't see Mr Steve Dickson (LNP) losing his seat!
Here's the lovely Serenity Waterfall in the area's rain forest.

http://i1230.photobucket.com/albums/ee481/jak_jak1/LOST%20IMG_4531_zpsbg2nzpol.jpg (http://s1230.photobucket.com/user/jak_jak1/media/LOST%20IMG_4531_zpsbg2nzpol.jpg.html)

It was the perfect place for a bit of relaxation and rest after my visit to Bangkok!

Photo: Elliott Renzies

Not interested about elections and results, but looks like I got it right for Mr Dickson and I got it 100% right about beautiful Buderim!

pax
02-02-2015, 05:20 PM
Did anyone have a bet on Labor winning outright ?

What odds were they at ?

I wonder what odds you would have got on any kind of Labor victory in April 2012? Wouldn't mind a time machine and a tenner ;)

pax
02-02-2015, 05:22 PM
Wish i could play chess as well -

29/01/2015 05:52 PM
Winning Party (Party of Premier)
2:(Straight Bet) Labor @ 7.00
$10.00 -
29/01/2015 01:14 PM
Winning Party (Party of Premier)
2:(Straight Bet) Labor @ 6.00
$8.00

Well played, sir.

lost
03-02-2015, 01:50 AM
I know one high profile journalist here in Melbourne who wasn't surprised by the results of the QLD election and has gone further stating the Abbott Government will be a one term Government.

lost

Garrett
03-02-2015, 03:39 AM
stating the Abbott Government will be a one term Government.

lost

It is certainly looking that way !

Garvinator
03-02-2015, 08:47 AM
This is one seat that I was following closely on Saturday night, but I am not sure how credible this article is: http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/02/02/19/12/hanson-making-a-run-in-lockyer

For those who do not want to read the full article, it is saying that Pauline Hanson is a real good chance to win the seat of Lockyer.

idledim
03-02-2015, 09:24 AM
My bet is that she won't make it. ALP preferences will elect a Liberal in Lockyer.

Garvinator
03-02-2015, 08:07 PM
Well I did find this, written 12 hours ago though, but it is from the ABC, who are far from likely be giving Hanson support: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-02/pauline-hanson-takes-lead-in-count-of-lockyer-seat/6064278

Kevin Bonham
03-02-2015, 10:27 PM
Hanson looks like narrowly losing based on projections of remaining votes. Not certain to lose though. Heading for about 44-42-3.

Election outcome was a surprise to me, I expected a narrow LNP retain. But the swing Labor should have got perhaps a week out arrived very late and most importantly preferencing behaviour changed massively. Did think a hung parliament was possible but thought an outright ALP win (which could still happen) was very unlikely.

In the NT Adam Giles was rolled as leader by his party yesterday, refused to resign, today reinstated as leader, remains Chief Minister. Bizarre.

antichrist
03-02-2015, 11:15 PM
In the NT Adam Giles was rolled as leader by his party yesterday, refused to resign, today reinstated as leader, remains Chief Minister. Bizarre. - KB

AC: reminds me of the advice that Marg Whitlam gave to Gough - why didn't you rip up Kerr's dismillal document and throw it at him ... and then refuse to close parliament and sack Kerr, or something along those lines.

Kevin Bonham
23-03-2015, 01:14 PM
My current projection for NSW is 52 Coalition, 37 Labor, 3 Ind, 1 Green.

I don't completely rule out Labor winning despite the lopsided polling doing the rounds but it does not look at all likely at the moment.

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/new-south-wales-final-week.html

Capablanca-Fan
25-03-2015, 03:41 PM
South Australia’s Treasurer needs to stop denying facts and get on with the job
CHRIS KENNY, THE ADVERTISER, 21 MARCH 2015


The 6.9 per cent unemployment rate is the highest in the nation—even worse than Tasmania.

The trigger for last week’s column was the shocking revelation that, over the past five years, SA has actually lost jobs.

And when it comes to economic growth, SA is running second last – at a feeble 1.3 per cent, it just shades the Apple Isle on 1.2 per cent.

Welfare dependency also tells a depressing story – an alarming 22.8 per cent of Croweaters, more than one in every five, receive a welfare cheque from Canberra (unemployment benefits, pensions, carers and study allowance etc).

Tasmania is worse, at a terrible 25 per cent, but SA is the worst on the mainland, with all the other states below 20 per cent and WA at only 15 per cent welfare reliance.

On state taxes, the Treasurer’s own Budget papers show that SA is the highest-taxing state with a “tax effort” almost 10 per cent above the average.

And, of course, along with Tasmania and Queensland, SA is subsidised by the stronger states when it comes to carving up the GST revenue.

So the message for Koutsantonis is pretty clear.

Stop denying the facts, stop slapping down anyone who confronts you with unpalatable truths—and get on with the job.

ER
25-03-2015, 07:01 PM
My current projection for NSW is 52 Coalition, 37 Labor, 3 Ind, 1 Green.

I don't completely rule out Labor winning despite the lopsided polling doing the rounds but it does not look at all likely at the moment.

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/03/new-south-wales-final-week.html

Looks like the Libs hold in key seats!

Kevin Bonham
25-03-2015, 07:25 PM
Looks like the Libs hold in key seats!

And perhaps lose a few non-key ones.

It's not quite clear what's going on at the moment because the polls with fresh figures in the last few days are all a bit suss so the blowout they are all showing to the Coalition might not be right. But at least there's no evidence of a move to Labor.

Adamski
25-03-2015, 10:42 PM
The unons in NSW have been saturating tv with "Baird wants to sell the electricity sysyem" false advertising. False because 1. it is lease and 2. it is 49%. The unions here have too much money if they can run the same lying ad umpteen times every night as they are.

Kevin Bonham
25-03-2015, 11:27 PM
The unons in NSW have been saturating tv with "Baird wants to sell the electricity sysyem" false advertising. False because 1. it is lease and 2. it is 49%.

The lease is for 99 years though but it's not surprising it has attracted a scare campaign.

Foley's Chinese spy stuff was a bit of a worry. Xenophobia in campaigns not a good look.

Capablanca-Fan
26-03-2015, 01:18 PM
Martin Ferguson, a rare Labor man who understands both economics and energy science, slams NSW Labor's demagoguery:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUSGennKr-4

Capablanca-Fan
26-03-2015, 01:20 PM
Former NSW Labor Treasurer Michael Costa, another rare Labor leader who understands economics, is equally scathing:

Untruthful unions’ $10 billion treachery (http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/untruthful-unions-10-billion-treachery/story-fni0cwl5-1227269989233), Daily Telegraph, 20 March 2015

FOR more than two decades NSW has been cursed with a dishonest debate on electricity privatisation which has resulted in a small, privileged special interest group, the electricity unions, maintaining their advantages at the expense of the general good.

This election, unfortunately, sees a continuation of this dishonesty.

The electricity unions and their supporters recognise that this election could resolve this issue once and for all. And so lie after desperate lie is being thrown at the public in an attempt to frighten the electorate into rejecting the Baird government’s sensible and moderate reforms to the electricity industry.

The stakes in this debate are high. NSW taxpayers have already lost billions of dollars as a result of the unions’ history of resistance to change.

Electricity reform cuts across the political divide. The Hawke/Keating governments initiated the move to the national electricity market which has delivered significant benefits to those states that embraced the reform. Yet in NSW the taxpayers and electricity consumers are significantly worse off because of repeated failure to reform the electricity sector. Union opposition to the Carr government’s privatisation proposal cost the state more than $35 billion, in today’s dollars, of potential infrastructure investment.

Likewise union opposition to the Iemma government’s sale of the electricity generators cost the state up to $15 billion of potential infrastructure investment. The unions, and their supporters, foisted upon the Rees and Keneally governments an ill-conceived “gen-trader” model which preserved endemic, feather-bedded, inefficient work practices and destroyed the financial value of the generators to the state.
...

Ian Murray
26-03-2015, 02:33 PM
The lease is for 99 years ...

Which is equivalent to a sale - there is no residual value after 99 years.

Desmond
27-03-2015, 07:55 PM
Will we even need a grid in 99 years? or will homes be making what they need locally? Who knows. I don't think it matters much who owns it then nor will it change my vote.

Kevin Bonham
27-03-2015, 10:44 PM
Overwhelmingly likely the Coalition will be re-elected. My seat model gives them 53 seats, 36 for Labor, 4 for others. (It's just on the cusp between that and 54-35-4).

antichrist
28-03-2015, 11:32 AM
As a psephologist do you get special treatment and access for voting numbers, patterns etc from the electoral authority?

Kevin Bonham
28-03-2015, 12:18 PM
As a psephologist do you get special treatment and access for voting numbers, patterns etc from the electoral authority?

Yes for Tasmanian elections. I had press-room access to figures not available on the public site for the 2014 state election and I was also given extra scrutineering rights at the 2014 council elections (which greatly annoyed one silly doddering Green.)

Also for Senate elections I requested and got stuff from the AEC re preference distributions.

Most elections I'm just going on what's available to the general public.

antichrist
28-03-2015, 11:28 PM
I am getting mixed messages, on the Radio it stated that Labor had won Ballina, but on ABC website stated or predicted that Greens would win Ballina? As I have stated elsewhere I don''t know how the existing member could take home his salary with good conscious but that is probably only because I am so much against his party and his habit of not turning up for community meetings nor responding to controversial issues when put to him

antichrist
28-03-2015, 11:35 PM
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-state-election-2015/results.html states here that Beavis is incumbent MP for Ballina when it is actually Don Page - not a very smart guy nor smart description, Beavis is from incumbent party

Kevin Bonham
29-03-2015, 12:08 AM
I am getting mixed messages, on the Radio it stated that Labor had won Ballina, but on ABC website stated or predicted that Greens would win Ballina?

Looks like Greens most likely winning it to me. There would have been confusion caused by the seat being counted between Nationals and Labor on the wrong assumption Labor would be second.

Greens may have won Lismore too but that one is much less clear and has a long way to go.

antichrist
29-03-2015, 06:54 AM
Looks like Greens most likely winning it to me. There would have been confusion caused by the seat being counted between Nationals and Labor on the wrong assumption Labor would be second.

Greens may have won Lismore too but that one is much less clear and has a long way to go.

I can't believe Lismore may go, that was Doug Anthony territory for generations, plus his old man's and son's. Just as Ballina was Page territory - totally amazing the turn around. Fix all the country bumpkins around here who don't care about completely stuffing up the environment and listen to stupid shock jocks and quote them forever

Patrick Byrom
29-03-2015, 03:25 PM
Interesting times ahead in Qld (http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/annastacia-palaszczuk-sacks-mp-billy-gordon-from-the-alp-20150329-1ma92x.html):

Appalled, shocked and sick to her stomach, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk announced she had made the decision which may cost her government, just two months after coming to power. Ms Palaszczuk wasted no time on Sunday announcing she had asked Labor state secretary Evan Moorhead to expel Cook MP Billy Gordon over his failure to disclose elements of his past, including criminal convictions. She said she made the only decision she could and had advised him to resign, which could spark a byelection in the north Queensland seat. Given Labor holds power only through the support of independent MP Peter Wellington, the decision could cost Ms Palaszczuk government.

Kevin Bonham
29-03-2015, 07:25 PM
Nothing to stop Gordon from just deciding to keep his seat as an indie. The problem then is that Palaszczuk can't get anything through parliament without support from either KAP or Gordon, and can be evicted from office by the LNP, KAP and Gordon at any stage.

If it does go to a by-election and the LNP wins it then KAP has the balance of power and Wellington becomes irrelevant.

Admirable move by Palaszczuk to have him expelled from the party immediately. On the other hand, there are claims that it took longer than necessary to refer to police, and the question will arise why the ALP's candidate screening didn't catch any of this.

Kevin Bonham
30-03-2015, 01:35 PM
Ballina not gone yet; Nationals have surged in post-count and Greens in danger of dropping to third behind Labor.

Desmond
31-03-2015, 10:24 AM
As usual, John Birmingham has nailed it: Comment: Let Billy Gordon suffer in parliament (http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/comment/comment-let-billy-gordon-suffer-in-parliament-20150330-1mbd01.html)

Kevin Bonham
31-03-2015, 11:03 AM
Current state of play in NSW seats is:

* Greens are probably winning Ballina, but it's not certain
* Liberals are probably winning East Hills, but it may close up
* Labor are shown as leading in Gosford but that's only because the 2PP count has been slow updating; Liberals are likely to win
* The Entrance is going to the wire
* Lismore who knows

antichrist
31-03-2015, 11:17 AM
The incumbent Lismore MP Lebo Thomas George had bags of manure dumped at his office last week over CSG- seems they have done the same to him in the voting. He is a decent guy actually I have had chats to him only he has THAT mindset of yesteryear.

The back of Page in Ballina was long overdue - imho he has been on strike for about a year

Kevin Bonham
08-04-2015, 11:35 AM
Labor seem to have unexpectedly survived in Gosford by 76 votes after an improved performance in the second half of the absent vote count. I believe the seat is being rechecked. They have also won The Entrance by about 145.

The Greens have provisionally won Ballina and the Nationals have provisionally retained Lismore following the entry of all votes and distribution of preferences.

So looking like the final Lower House result should be 54-34-3-2.

Patrick Byrom
08-04-2015, 11:12 PM
Nothing to stop Gordon from just deciding to keep his seat as an indie. The problem then is that Palaszczuk can't get anything through parliament without support from either KAP or Gordon, and can be evicted from office by the LNP, KAP and Gordon at any stage.
Which he has decided to do (http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/annastacia-palaszczuk-to-govern-as-if-she-had-majority-of-20-20150408-1mgj5j.html). Ironically, changes to standing orders by the previous LNP government mean that Palaszczuk can't refuse his vote (a silly idea anyway), despite the demands of the LNP: "But under the standing orders the LNP introduced last term, the parties won't know how the cross bench votes until after they have already lodged their vote with the parliament.".

Kevin Bonham
09-04-2015, 10:11 AM
Really Palaszczuk is right to accept Gordon's vote and anything to the contrary is just silly. The voters of Cook were voting for the ALP and had they known Gordon was going to be an independent they would have voted for any endorsed ALP candidate rather than him. The ALP has a mandate to govern courtesy of the majority of the House at the election consisting of its own members and a supportive Independent (Wellington) and should just get on with it.

It's not in Gordon's interests to bring down the government as that would bring up an election in which he would lose his seat, the income from which is probably his sole reason for not resigning immediately. Things will get hairier if Gordon starts voting the government down on specific bills but he's not likely to bring them down on confidence and supply.

Kevin Bonham
15-04-2015, 12:19 PM
All done and dusted at 54-34-3-2 in NSW Lower House. The 2PP was 54.32% to Coalition, a swing of 9.9%. ReachTEL was the most accurate pollster and Morgan SMS the worst (my review here: http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/04/new-south-wales-final-lower-house.html)

Button press for NSW Legislative Council on Friday at 11 am followed possibly by court case if Animal Justice Party loses narrowly.

Spill in NT Labor: caucus voted 5-3 to kick out Delia Lawrie as leader. If Lawrie now doesn't resign there will be a month-long leadership ballot of the membership between her and Michael Gunner (like the Albo vs Shorten ballot) in which she must get more than 62.5%.

Kevin Bonham
17-04-2015, 12:50 PM
The Animal Justice Party has beaten the ridiculous No Land Tax Party and the Coalition for the final spot in the NSW Legislative Council.

antichrist
18-04-2015, 07:34 AM
The Animal Justice Party has beaten the ridiculous No Land Tax Party and the Coalition for the final spot in the NSW Legislative Council.

was terrific to see that, I was so busy just voted Green above the line and it was on Green preferences they brought home the bacon. I did not mind the farm animal consumption when young, it was okay except for the killing but these days how everything is industrialised, without love and care so to speak we are not a decent species to other animals any more. It is us whom should be have euthanasia for the benefit of the other species. We have fed poop to animals how shocking. Battery hens are also a blight. Pigs are never exercised or see light of day maybe. We are Nazi Germany re-incarnated.

Kevin Bonham
18-04-2015, 01:32 PM
was terrific to see that, I was so busy just voted Green above the line and it was on Green preferences they brought home the bacon.

If you voted just 1 Green above the line then your preferences went nowhere.

In the NSW system parties cannot allocate preferences by deals the way they do in the Senate. If you want your preference to flow above the line in NSW you need to vote 2 above the line for your next favourite party, 3 for your next (and so on for as many as you like.) Hopefully the same system will come in soon for the Senate to stop micro party preference harvesting.

The AJP did very well on Greens preferences but they did very well on almost everyone's. They got more preferences than the No Land Tax party even from people who had voted for the Outdoor Recreation Party, the Coalition, the Motoring Enthusiasts Party and even the Fishing Party!

Kevin Bonham
19-04-2015, 04:41 PM
Delia Lawrie has thrown in the towel so Michael Gunner is the new NT Labor leader.

Capablanca-Fan
24-04-2015, 01:02 AM
Barnett to chop potato regulator (https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/27211198/barnett-to-chop-potato-regulator/)
Andrew Probyn and Andrew Tillet
20 April 2015

WA’s archaic “spud cop” faces the chop, with Colin Barnett declaring the Potato Marketing Corporation will be abolished within two years.
The Premier told The West Australian it was time to peel back rules that dictated the varieties, quantities and price of potatoes grown in the State.
“The Potato Corp’s days are up,” Mr Barnett said. “It will go. It should have gone years ago.”
The corporation’s future has been under the microscope in recent weeks after a Federal review on competition policy singled it out as a $3.8 million-a-year drag on the WA economy.
As well as requiring growers to be licensed and restricting potato crops, the PMC has draconian powers, including the ability to search vehicles suspected of carrying more than 50kg of potatoes and impound contraband spuds.

Opposition Leader Mark McGowan said Labor’s policy since 2012 had been to scrap the PMC, which Mr Barnett had previously opposed.
“He’s copying us, again, on a sensible policy,” he said.

Kevin Bonham
24-04-2015, 01:15 AM
I had no idea such a ludicrous thing still existed!

Kevin Bonham
02-05-2015, 05:54 PM
I'm doing live coverage of three Tasmanian upper house seats that went to the polls today over here:

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/05/legislative-council-2015-windermere.html

The two lefties will get re-elected easily and the one conservative has a bit of a fight on his hands, but may still get back.

Kevin Bonham
02-05-2015, 10:12 PM
All incumbents re-elected. Zzzzzz.

I wrote the bit about Windermere badly above - makes it sound like I thought he would probably lose; as noted on my site before the election I did cautiously expect he would win.

Capablanca-Fan
06-06-2015, 04:36 AM
Government tells Uber to leave Queensland (http://freedomwatch.ipa.org.au/2015/06/government-tells-uber-to-leave-queensland/)
by Patrick Hannaford, 1 June 2015

The Queensland government has shown that it’s more interested in protecting vested interests than creating jobs or providing services to the Queensland public.

In a segment on 612 ABC Brisbane (http://blogs.abc.net.au/queensland/2015/05/is-uber-a-ridesharing-company-or-a-taxi-service.html), Uber’s head of policy, Brad Kitschke, revealed that Queensland’s Deputy Premier, Jackie Trad, had instructed Uber to close its business and leave Queensland. Asked for the deputy premier’s exact words, Kitschke replied:


The Minister said that if we wanted to have a discussion with her—about the future and about reform—that the best thing we could do to create good will, was to shut our business.

This is an extraordinary demand from a senior government minister who, as minister for transport, ought to be encouraging new transport alternatives.

But attempting to chase Uber out of Queensland won’t just reduce residents’ transportation options. It will also cost jobs.

Uber claims to have already created 2,000 new jobs in Brisbane and the Gold Coast. The company believes it can create an addition 4,000 jobs this year, if the government is willing to create an appropriate regulatory solution.

Based on the deputy premier’s comments, this is not something of interest to the Queensland government.

Unfortunately, it appears that Annastacia Palaszczuk’s government is more interested in protecting the existing taxi cartel, and reaping the revenue from the $525,000 taxi license fees (http://www.blackandwhitecabs.com.au/?q=brisbane/buying-a-licence#Queensland), than allowing the growth of innovative new services that create jobs and serve the needs of Queensland residents.

Garrett
06-06-2015, 06:39 AM
Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

It may eventually affect more than just Uber, as "peer to peer" will probably be a theme moving forward.

Patrick Byrom
06-06-2015, 02:27 PM
Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
It may eventually affect more than just Uber, as "peer to peer" will probably be a theme moving forward.
Uber is illegal in most Australian states:
(http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-14/uberx-outsmarts-taxi-inspectors-by-blocking-mobile-phones/6016940)

Emails obtained by the 7.30 program reveal illegal ride-sharing application UberX is undermining transport inspectors by blocking their mobile phones from accessing the service. UberX drivers use private vehicles as unlicensed taxis to collect passengers who have requested a car using Uber's smart phone application. It is effectively banned in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, and Western Australia, and drivers caught accepting passengers risk fines of up to $1,700.


Strangely enough Capablanca-Fan and the IPA article didn't mention that :)

Capablanca-Fan
10-06-2015, 01:07 PM
Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

It may eventually affect more than just Uber, as "peer to peer" will probably be a theme moving forward.

Apparently the crony capitalists and socialists in all the states have conspired to keep out this cheaper and more efficient transportation service, to protect the taxi cartels, much to the delight of ChessChat's resident socialist Patrick Byrom.

Patrick Byrom
10-06-2015, 01:22 PM
Apparently the crony capitalists and socialists in all the states have conspired to keep out this cheaper and more efficient transportation service, to protect the taxi cartels, much to the delight of ChessChat's resident socialist Patrick Byrom.
That word ("socialist") does not mean what you think it means - I run my own small business, and (unlike CMI) I don't rely on government subsidies!

But I wasn't expressing "delight" - I was making the point that the Qld government can't be criticised for refusing to negotiate with an illegal business. I don't have an opinion on Uber.

antichrist
10-06-2015, 04:03 PM
In the appropriate circumstances I am in favour of the concept as it may save pollution - not necessarily as a profit making business

Capablanca-Fan
14-06-2015, 12:39 PM
Labor MP Chris Minns says too few people live in inner city due to Greens priorities (http://m.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/labor-mp-chris-minns-says-too-few-people-live-in-inner-city-due-to-greens-priorities/story-fni0cx4q-1227393647086)
Andrew Clennell, The Daily Telegraph, 11 June 2015

THERE are too few people living in inner-city suburbs such as Balmain, a Labor leadership prospect says.

New Kogarah MP Chris Minns has delivered a scathing attack on those who oppose inner-city development saying “there are too few people living in Balmain and that it is ridiculous that vast tracts of Newtown and Glebe have maximum height limits of two storeys.”

Mr Minns, tipped as the next Labor leader, writes in The Daily Telegraph today that the Greens not only oppose all development in the inner city but when that pushes people to the outer suburbs, they oppose motorways out there as well.

“The truth is the Greens are perpetuating a con. They frustrate development proposals in their own backyard while demanding the rest of Sydney take the overflow and then plot to overturn the roads needed to transport this population,” Mr Minns wrote.

“The only way public transport, walking and bikes can take the place of roads is if the Greens stop opposing responsible development on their own patch in the inner city.

“The Greens opposed the Central Park development on the old CUB Brewery site. They said the new redevelopment of Harold Park would ‘destroy’ Glebe, and they are viciously attacking a proposal for housing at Marrickville RSL (even though it’s located next to a train station) to name just a few.”

Kevin Bonham
02-07-2015, 09:41 PM
Noreen Hay (ALP, Wollongong, recently re-elected) office raided by the feds on electoral fraud suspicions:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-02/afp-raids-office-of-new-south-wales-mp-noreen-hay/6591410

Referral from Australian Electoral Commission, this sounds serious.

Kevin Bonham
02-07-2015, 09:59 PM
Were troubles known but the party did nothing? This from late last year:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/barry-ofarrells-demise-features-in-suspicious-alp-wollongong-branch-books-20141205-1212kl.html

Rincewind
28-08-2015, 02:22 PM
Hookgate (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-28/budget-estimates-hears-evidence-holes-wall-from-photo-hooks/6732774)

Capablanca-Fan
10-09-2015, 03:15 AM
NT speed limits permanently derestricted (http://www.drive.com.au/motor-news/should-we-have-higher-speed-limits-20140807-100xfs.html)
Top end highways to be permanently de-restricted following evidence-based trial.

Sam Charlwood, Drive.com.au, 3 September 2015

Motorists in the Northern Territory will be permanently allowed to choose their own speed along a 276 kilometre section of highway following a successful 18 month evidence-based trial.

Whereas most Australian states have pursued lower speed limits in recent years, the Territory example provides an interesting case study.

Open speed limits were abolished by the former Territory Labor Government in 2006 (http://www.drive.com.au/motor-news/should-we-have-higher-speed-limits-20140807-100xfs.html) and replaced by a maximum limit of 130km/h. More people died on Territory roads (307) in the six years after than in the six years before the change (292).

Moreover, countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Denmark record lower annual road traffic deaths than Australia despite featuring speed limits of 130km/h or higher.

Sir Cromulent Sparkles
10-09-2015, 04:14 AM
The person most likely to win the Canning by-election is ............ - http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/canning-byelection-arrest-warrant-for-teresa-van-lieshout-after-court-noshow-20150908-gjhlcl.html

antichrist
10-09-2015, 05:21 AM
She reminds me of axiom, she may pick up chess in the lock up then come out and marry axiom - there is supposed to be the perfect match for everyone, even for you too Larry bubbles

Sir Cromulent Sparkles
10-09-2015, 06:14 AM
She reminds me of axiom, she may pick up chess in the lock up then come out and marry axiom - there is supposed to be the perfect match for everyone, even for you too Larry bubbles

I know my perfect match - http://www.tmz.com/2015/06/22/britney-spears-charlie-ebersol-break-up-single-again/

Desmond
15-11-2015, 07:35 PM
Where did Mike Baird find the time to star in a Prince of Denmark movie?

Kevin Bonham
09-03-2016, 08:17 PM
Queensland government down to 42 seats after Rob Pyne quits the party. He still supports Labor on confidence and supply (provided Jackie Trad doesn't roll Palaszczuk) but wanted room to vote against the party on some issues. The balance of power is now held there by two KAP, two ex-Labor independents, and Peter Wellington.

Kevin Bonham
20-03-2016, 12:15 AM
To my surprise (given that the previous government was dangerous and the present one is unstable) Queensland voters have voted in favour of fixed four year terms. The current margin is 53-47 and it doesn't look like changing much.

Kevin Bonham
21-04-2016, 09:13 PM
Queensland has returned to compulsory preferential voting after the LNP moved a bill to add four seats to the Queensland parliament, but Labor amended it to include the abolition of optional preferencing. Being able to move it as an amendment meant it didn't have to go through any committee or scrutiny process and could be done in one night so this was a major strategic fail for the LNP. The return of compulsory preferencing is a huge advantage to Labor, possibly adding about two points to its 2PP vote.

Patrick Byrom
06-05-2016, 01:27 PM
In more Qld news (possibly related to the above post), former Treasurer Tim Nicholls has replaced Lawrence Springborg as leader of the LNP. Deb Frecklington (who?) is the new Deputy Leader.

Kevin Bonham
06-05-2016, 06:44 PM
Yep, major strategic fail by the Borg on compulsory preferences, so despite the LNP being in a competitive position it is no surprise he has been assimilated.

First round vote Springborg 17 Nicholls 14 Mander 10
Second round Nicholls 22 Springborg 19

Capablanca-Fan
07-05-2016, 12:13 AM
Queensland has returned to compulsory preferential voting after the LNP moved a bill to add four seats to the Queensland parliament, but Labor amended it to include the abolition of optional preferencing. Being able to move it as an amendment meant it didn't have to go through any committee or scrutiny process and could be done in one night so this was a major strategic fail for the LNP. The return of compulsory preferencing is a huge advantage to Labor, possibly adding about two points to its 2PP vote.

Yet it was Labor's Peter Beattie who used the "Just Vote 1" to great advantage in an electoral rout of Borbidge.

Kevin Bonham
07-05-2016, 11:09 PM
In Tasmania's Legislative Council, usually centrist independent and former local mayor Adriana Taylor has been unseated by 26-year old Labor candidate Josh Willie, a primary school teacher with next to no political experience, with a swing of around 10% in quite an upset. I am pleased about this outcome because the average age of the Legislative Council was getting too high and Taylor made some really ridiculous comments against same-sex marriage a few years back (and on other religious moral issues since). I am also surprised because while Labor were making a massive effort, incumbents in the Legislative Council are usually unbeatable and I thought Taylor easily won the radio debate this week.

In the other seat up for grabs the fairly conservative independent Tania Rattray smashed Labor, Green and "Tasmania Party" (formerly a rogue branch of the Nationals) challengers and is currently 14 votes short of an outright majority on primaries.

Garvinator
07-05-2016, 11:17 PM
Yet it was Labor's Peter Beattie who used the "Just Vote 1" to great advantage in an electoral rout of Borbidge.
That was in 1998, when in a little known fact, One Nation polled 2nd behind Labor in first preference votes across the state, in front of the Libs and Nats.

Kevin Bonham
08-05-2016, 12:09 AM
I don't know if Beattie used "just vote 1" in the 1998 election vs Borbidge or not but the best known use of it was in the 2001 election. One idea of it was to encourage conservative voters to not distribute their preferences and another was to highlight Labor as a single option and the rest as an unstable rabble. The latter was also backed with an advertisement along the lines of "Who's Got The Wheel" which showed a car being driven alternately by various of the Libs, Nats, One Nation and City-Country Alliance (since any alternative government to Labor's would be obviously some kind of multi-party coalition). If anyone ever sees a copy of this ad online, I'm keen to see it.

The LNP under Newman tried to ape this tactic in their own advertising in 2015, basing it on some dumb nonsense about preference deals, and failed completely.

Capablanca-Fan
08-05-2016, 02:38 AM
That was in 1998, when in a little known fact, One Nation polled 2nd behind Labor in first preference votes across the state, in front of the Libs and Nats.

Thank goodness for Australia's preferential voting, preventing a Trump-like party from getting too far.

Patrick Byrom
08-05-2016, 02:56 PM
Thank goodness for Australia's preferential voting, preventing a Trump-like party from getting too far.
Actually, Qld had Optional Preferential Voting at that time, which advantaged the Labor party over the other main parties (One Nation, LP and NP) - Labor won with only 38% of the primary vote. Under FPP, Labor would (almost certainly) have won comfortably instead of forming a minority government. Under compulsory preferential voting, One Nation might have formed government. It's difficult to be certain, of course, as voting systems affect party behaviour (eg, LP+NP -> LNP).

FPP only becomes problematic when there are more than two major candidates, so it's not normally a serious issue in the US Presidential election. It could have changed the outcome of the Republican primary, but we don't really know, as under a different system candidates would have behaved differently. Of course, whinging about the voting system is irrelevant now - it should be changed for next time. However, I'm betting it won't be.

Kevin Bonham
08-05-2016, 05:56 PM
Actually, Qld had Optional Preferential Voting at that time, which advantaged the Labor party over the other main parties (One Nation, LP and NP) - Labor won with only 38% of the primary vote. Under FPP, Labor would (almost certainly) have won comfortably instead of forming a minority government. Under compulsory preferential voting, One Nation might have formed government. It's difficult to be certain, of course, as voting systems affect party behaviour (eg, LP+NP -> LNP).

I wondered about the 1998 result under CPV, having never looked at it before.

The number of seats that would have been affected is a lot smaller than you'd think.

The actual 1998 result was ALP 44 Nat 23 Lib 9 ON 11 Ind 2.

I had to make the following assumptions based on the data available to me:
1. That the final two would still have been the same in each seat
2. That the exhaust rate was uniform across third parties
3. That the voters who exhausted their vote would have preferenced the same way as those who did not exhaust their vote (if forced to do so)

2 isn't reliable and 3 is pretty dubious but 3 just tends to increase the chance of a seat switching compared to what would actually happen. So the outcomes below if anything overstate how many seats would have been different.

With these assumptions I found that the Liberals would have won Barron River, Mansfield and Springwood (the last very narrowly) instead of Labor and the Nationals would have won Tablelands instead of ON. The Nationals would have nearly won Currumbin instead of Labor and Labor would have nearly won Indooropilly instead of the Liberals. The Springwood win is pretty dubious given the assumptions, so say ALP 41-42 NAT 24 Lib 11-12 ON 10 Ind 2.

So Labor wouldn't have been able to form government without defections from One Nation while a National/Liberal/One Nation government might have had the numbers by one or might have needed support from an Independent as well. Most likely had the 1998 election been conducted under CPV the parliament wouldn't have lasted the year. The other possibility is that the Nats would have not sought a formal coalition with ON but instead governed in minority with the risk that ON would throw them out.

Rincewind
21-08-2016, 06:40 PM
Tasmanian backbencher Adam Brooks 'unlikely' to return to Cabinet amid mining emails saga: analyst (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-21/tasmanian-backbencher-adam-brooks-unlikely-for-cabinet-analyst/7770706)


Political analyst Kevin Bonham said it was unlikely Mr Brooks would want to remain on the backbench.

"As someone who has got a lot of professional experience ... he probably wants a bit more of an influence than just hanging around on the backbench forever," he said.

Mr Bonham said it could have implications on the 2018 state election.

"The biggest problem for them is if he doesn't run at the next election," he said. "Adam Brooks was a very popular candidate."

Kevin Bonham
21-08-2016, 07:37 PM
Another case where the headline is the worst part of the article since I did not actually express any view on whether or not Brooks might return to the ministry.

Kevin Bonham
21-08-2016, 07:40 PM
There's an election in the NT next weekend. The main suspense is whether the Country Liberal Party government will get away with being heavily thrashed. Bookies are expecting a result of something like CLP 4 ALP 18 Ind 3, though parts of the NT are extremely difficult to poll.

Kevin Bonham
25-08-2016, 09:15 PM
Tasmanian Premier Will Hodgman given the boot from state parliament chamber for an hour or so by his own party's speaker, Elise Archer. Archer is rumoured to be a frustrated Cabinet aspirant but all the same most other Speakers anywhere would never have had the guts.

Patrick Byrom
27-08-2016, 09:36 PM
There's an election in the NT next weekend. The main suspense is whether the Country Liberal Party government will get away with being heavily thrashed. Bookies are expecting a result of something like CLP 4 ALP 18 Ind 3, though parts of the NT are extremely difficult to poll.
And the CLP has been heavily thrashed, with a swing against it of about 20%, and more Independents than CLP members. Adam Giles, the Chief Minister, may even lose his seat.

Kevin Bonham
27-08-2016, 11:33 PM
And the CLP has been heavily thrashed, with a swing against it of about 20%, and more Independents than CLP members. Adam Giles, the Chief Minister, may even lose his seat.

I have it as 15-20 Labor seats, 2-4 CLP and 3-6 Independents. Giles is 21 votes behind at present but absent votes are still to come.

Kevin Bonham
01-09-2016, 12:43 AM
Former NT Chief Minister Terry Mills has won back his seat of Blain as an independent (barring major errors being found in recounting) while former Opposition Leader Delia Lawrie has lost her seat to her old party.

Giles is looking like he will probably just lose and the CLP is currently on track to win only two seats. There is a lot of interest in Nhulunbuy where a Treaty activist from the Yolngu people has an extremely narrow lead over Labor.

Kevin Bonham
16-10-2016, 01:59 PM
Labor has won the ACT election, notwithstanding a fair amount of clueless pundit babble (uninformed by polls or even history) that suggested it would be close and the Liberals might win.

Depending on how a few seats play out, Labor is currently on to continue in minority with the Greens holding the balance of power. However a Labor majority is still possible, as is the Sex Party sharing the balance of power with the Greens such that Labor can pass legislation with the help of either.

Kevin Bonham
13-11-2016, 06:05 AM
Colossal swing against the Nationals in the Orange by-election, fuelled by forced Council mergers and the now-overturned greyhound racing ban. Some booth swings exceeded sixty per cent in a seat the Nats have held for 69 years. In some booths over four in five Nationals voters turned against them. At the moment it looks like they are going to lose the seat to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, although there is still some chance they will hold on. A leadership spill appears likely.

ER
22-11-2016, 07:16 PM
At the moment it looks like they are going to lose the seat to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, although there is still some chance they will hold on.

Kev you were about 90% right! :) :P


The Shooters Party has won the NSW seat of Orange after the Nationals called for a re-count.

The Shooters' Philip Donato has beaten Scott Barrett from the Nationals by 50 votes.

It ends the Nationals' 69-year stranglehold on the regional electorate.

Kevin Bonham
21-12-2016, 10:05 PM
It's only taken One Nation a few days to lose one of the 36 candidates they rolled out as supposedly their cream of the crop for the Queensland election.

Kevin Bonham
17-01-2017, 03:16 PM
Posts moved

Speeding and overtaking laws posts moved to new thread.

Patrick Byrom
19-01-2017, 03:21 PM
Mike Baird has resigned as NSW Premier!

Kevin Bonham
19-01-2017, 04:15 PM
Mike Baird has resigned as NSW Premier!

Yes, not one to hang about once things got difficult. He never intended to be there forever.

Kevin Bonham
19-01-2017, 09:18 PM
Baird would also be one of the small minority of politicians for whom the claim of quitting for family reasons was clearly valid.

Kevin Bonham
23-01-2017, 10:13 AM
Gladys Berejiklian is new NSW Premier to the surprise of nobody. She is the first female Liberal State Premier ever, Labor having had six and a PM as well. (The Liberals have however had one of four female Territory leaders.)

Rincewind
23-01-2017, 11:00 AM
SA is the only one of the states and territories to have never had a female premier/chief minister. However we have had a liberal female leader of state opposition (no labor one that I can think of). Interesting considering that SA was the first state to grant women the vote and the right to stand for parliament.

Kevin Bonham
16-02-2017, 06:59 PM
One Nation having a few issues on the campaign trail in WA with a number of their candidates being exposed as fruitcakes even by One Nation standards and a candidate rebellion against preferencing the Liberals.

Meanwhile some bunch of randoms have got together a cozy Glenn Druery preference harvesting deal going so if you're in WA and you want to control your preferences then you have to vote below the line and number all the boxes. Especially concerning is East Metro where an anti-fluoridation candidate who sells overpriced dietary supplements as part of a multi-level marketing scheme could be elected off 0.2% of the vote. The WA Upper House electoral system - malapportioned with Group Ticket voting and inadequate savings provisions - is surely the worst in the country.

And Queensland speaker Peter Wellington will retire at the next election which will probably mean LNP seats +1.

Desmond
28-02-2017, 08:08 PM
Backflip Baird has finished focusing on his family for 11 minutes and takes multimillion dollar job in the baking sector. (http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/former-nsw-premier-mike-baird-joins-nab-as-chief-customer-officer-20170227-gumplr.html)

Kevin Bonham
01-03-2017, 10:44 PM
Chaos reigns again in Queensland parliament as Billy Gordon mistakenly votes the wrong way on an LNP sugar arbitration bill and hence causes it to pass.

ER
01-03-2017, 10:54 PM
Chaos reigns again in Queensland parliament as Billy Gordon mistakenly votes the wrong way on an LNP sugar arbitration bill and hence causes it to pass.

LOL is that from a "Yes Minister" episode??? :P :lol:

Kevin Bonham
01-03-2017, 11:03 PM
It's actually a product of a system that the LNP came up with in the previous parliament cause they couldn't be bothered "crossing" from one side of the parliament to the other given that they had such a massive majority. It's previously hurt them when they tried to say Palaszczuk shouldn't accept Gordon's vote only to find their own system prevented Labor from knowing how Gordon would vote until he did. This time it has played out in their favour.

Kevin Bonham
02-03-2017, 09:58 AM
Correction: the sugar bill did not eventually pass into law - Gordon was able to vote correctly and defeat it at the third reading stage.

Ian Murray
09-03-2017, 07:50 AM
The case for renationalising Australia’s electricity grid (https://theconversation.com/the-case-for-renationalising-australias-electricity-grid-73951)
John Quiggin
Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland
The Conversation
6.3.17

The public debate over the problems of electricity supply displays a curious disconnect. On the one hand, there is virtually universal agreement that the system is in crisis. After 25 years, the promised outcomes of reform – cheaper and more reliable electricity, competitive markets and rational investment decisions – are further away than ever. ...

Frank
09-03-2017, 11:34 AM
The case for renationalising Australia’s electricity grid (https://theconversation.com/the-case-for-renationalising-australias-electricity-grid-73951)
John Quiggin
Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland
The Conversation
6.3.17

The public debate over the problems of electricity supply displays a curious disconnect.

An increasing feature of a number of other public policy debates both here and abroad

Ian Murray
09-03-2017, 12:39 PM
An increasing feature of a number of other public policy debates both here and abroad

Selling off WestPower to retire debt is a major plank in Colin Barnett's platform in Saturday's WA elections. We'll soon know how it fared.

ER
10-03-2017, 03:35 PM
I predict that Western Australians will be led by a new party as an outcome of their State Election!

I also predict a very strong performance by Ms. Hanson's One Nation.

I am off to Launceston, bye! :)

Patrick Byrom
11-03-2017, 09:49 PM
I predict that Western Australians will be led by a new party as an outcome of their State Election!
I also predict a very strong performance by Ms. Hanson's One Nation.You're correct about the first part - Labor annihilated the Coalition, with swings of 20-30% against the Liberal Party (on first preferences).
But maybe not about One Nation.
UPDATES: One Nation did okay with 4% - but that's nothing special. Labor could double it's numbers, from 20 to 40, in the lower house!

Desmond
12-03-2017, 07:32 AM
They'll be disappointed with 4%. I was hearing predictions of 8 or 9.
Seems the winner of the libs-PHON deal was Labor.

Ian Murray
12-03-2017, 12:25 PM
They'll be disappointed with 4%. I was hearing predictions of 8 or 9.
Seems the winner of the libs-PHON deal was Labor.

She was polling 13% not so long ago. The swing voters swung back after her anti-vax support

Kevin Bonham
12-03-2017, 03:26 PM
She was polling 13% not so long ago. The swing voters swung back after her anti-vax support

...and her preference deal with the Liberals, and her candidates being a rabble.

The problem for One Nation is they need her as a figurehead, but she's really just an irate idiot.

Kaitlin
12-03-2017, 04:06 PM
I predict that Western Australians will be led by a new party as an outcome of their State Election!

I also predict a very strong performance by Ms. Hanson's One Nation.

I am off to Launceston, bye! :)

Getting as far away from WA as possible?

Kaitlin
12-03-2017, 04:12 PM
I don't like One Nation party. They only got support because they seemed to be listening to what voters wanted. Any new party could have got votes on that basis. One Nation has too much baggage, if it was a airline they wouldn't even be allowed aboard. Any party that showed they are truly representative of the voters would win.

Desmond
12-03-2017, 07:41 PM
She was polling 13% not so long ago. The swing voters swung back after her anti-vax support

It was 9% only a week ago, and she said on insiders she was hopeful of that translating into seats

Andrew Hardegen
12-03-2017, 09:09 PM
It was 9% only a week ago, and she said on insiders she was hopeful of that translating into seats

She may well do so. Hanson's One Nation seems likely to pick up 2 Upper House seats.

Last night it seemed that my worst fears would be realised, with both Fluoride Free WA and the Daylight Saving Party looking like picking up seats. While it may be too early to tell, I am thankful that this is no longer the predicted outcome.

Kevin Bonham
12-03-2017, 09:50 PM
Last night it seemed that my worst fears would be realised, with both Fluoride Free WA and the Daylight Saving Party looking like picking up seats. While it may be too early to tell, I am thankful that this is no longer the predicted outcome.

There was an error on the ABC site which was showing the Shooters candidate as being from the Daylight Savings Party.

Still a very long way to go on those counts.

Desmond
13-03-2017, 07:12 AM
She may well do so. Hanson's One Nation seems likely to pick up 2 Upper House seats.

Last night it seemed that my worst fears would be realised, with both Fluoride Free WA and the Daylight Saving Party looking like picking up seats. While it may be too early to tell, I am thankful that this is no longer the predicted outcome.

Talking about lower house seats.

Andrew Hardegen
13-03-2017, 12:34 PM
Talking about lower house seats.

You didn't mention the house. I didn't listen to Pauline, so if she did specify that she was hoping for lower house seats, I would not have known.

Desmond
13-03-2017, 05:17 PM
Thought it would have been obvious.
Anyway
http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/pauline-hanson-defends-one-nations-wa-election-performance/news-story/5ddcee1063a66d94942e21052c2727f9

"We are picking up three seats in the upper house and possibly another two,” she said.

“We have picked up mining, pastoral, agricultural, and possibly the South West, also, the chance of East Metro and South Metro.

“That’s what we hoped for.

“I was hoping, possibly, one [or] two seats in the lower house but that did not eventuate.”

Andrew Hardegen
13-03-2017, 05:56 PM
Thought it would have been obvious.

Not sure why you would think that.

Hard to win that many lower house seats with 9% of the primary vote. If such a candidate expresses hope that they will win seats, most reasonable people would assume that they are talking about upper house seats, or seats in either house.

Kevin Bonham
13-03-2017, 09:11 PM
Hard to win that many lower house seats with 9% of the primary vote. If such a candidate expresses hope that they will win seats, most reasonable people would assume that they are talking about upper house seats, or seats in either house.

That depends on whether those reasonable people are aware that the party figure in question is clueless.

Patrick Byrom
13-03-2017, 11:38 PM
... Hard to win that many lower house seats with 9% of the primary vote. If such a candidate expresses hope that they will win seats, most reasonable people would assume that they are talking about upper house seats, or seats in either house.The National Party picked up 5 seats in the lower house with only 5% of the vote, so PHON could have been hoping for a similar benefit from concentrated voters.

Amusing factoid: The Liberal Democrats finished with fewer votes than the Socialist Alliance in the lower house!

Desmond
14-03-2017, 09:20 AM
Not sure why you would think that.

Hard to win that many lower house seats with 9% of the primary vote. If such a candidate expresses hope that they will win seats, most reasonable people would assume that they are talking about upper house seats, or seats in either house.

Well if you have 9pct of primary vote in the upper house, hope isn't really needed is it?

Andrew Hardegen
14-03-2017, 07:19 PM
Generally not - but my understanding is that it is at least roughly true that if you have less than 1 quota, then you are competing against groups with a combined total of more than 1 quota for the remaining spot. This may be a problem if preference flows go against you.

For the latest count in Agricultural, PHON has 11.33% (0.7928 quotas), but it appears this may not be enough to win her the 6th seat.

Kevin Bonham
14-03-2017, 08:02 PM
Generally not - but my understanding is that it is at least roughly true that if you have less than 1 quota, then you are competing against groups with a combined total of more than 1 quota for the remaining spot. This may be a problem if preference flows go against you.

Yes, because of group ticket voting. A party that is short of a quota by even a very small amount may lose if no other party preferenced it ahead of the competition.

Desmond
14-03-2017, 08:25 PM
Interesting looking at the Past Results (http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/guide/legislative-council/) section, couldn't really see any party with 8-9% or above that failed to win seats at least since 1989. Looks like ONP's 10% (or a bit less) in 2001 was good for 3 seats.

Kevin Bonham
07-04-2017, 01:44 PM
Tasmanian Attorney-General Vanessa Goodwin, one of two Liberals in the mostly independent Legislative Council, has been diagnosed with an aggressive form of brain cancer which has caused multiple tumours, and is sadly not expected to recover.

She has not yet resigned her seat but will probably do so soon and there will be a by-election for it later this year, together with the three seats going to the polls in May. There is a lot of potential for the Liberals to end up with an extremely difficult upper house for the last year of their term (the next lower house election is scheduled for March 2018).

Kevin Bonham
07-05-2017, 09:10 PM
Slight shift to the left in the Tasmanian Legislative Council elections with "Independent Liberal" Tony Mulder booted by first-time ALP candidate, unionist Sarah Lovell. Labor and left-wing independents now have an effective blocking majority making life difficult for the Hodgman Government.