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Kevin Bonham
13-04-2011, 01:24 AM
Would have been funny if she'd beaten the National because then it would have been Coalition 18, Labor+Green 19, CDs 2, S+F 2 and Hanson. She would have made a lot of noise but her only power would have been to decide whether to block or pass stuff supported by Labor, the Greens and only one of the other two parties. The Coalition would still have needed both CD and S+F to get stuff passed.

Eight year terms are insane. Gee if coming within 1306 votes of having Pauline Hanson in the upper house for eight years won't get NSW serious about Upper House reform I don't know what will.

Ian Murray
13-04-2011, 10:40 AM
Eight year terms are insane. Gee if coming within 1306 votes of having Pauline Hanson in the upper house for eight years won't get NSW serious about Upper House reform I don't know what will.
Scary, isn't it. Wonder if she'll give up, or (horrors) come back to Queensland for another try. At least there's no upper house here to tilt at.

How much did she make out of electoral commission funding or the state equivalent this time?

Garvinator
13-04-2011, 11:41 AM
How much did she make out of electoral commission funding or the state equivalent this time?My understanding is nothing as she did not get to the 4% required.

antichrist
13-04-2011, 12:56 PM
I am glad for the greens to get another one up.

Bob Brown wants to clip their Palestinian policy of sanctions against Israel. And Ian Cohen may have squirmed I did not see anything to do with election but he did sign very good petition against Isreal about a year ago.

Go NSW greens

Ian Murray
13-04-2011, 02:53 PM
My understanding is nothing as she did not get to the 4% required.
Good!

Kevin Bonham
13-04-2011, 07:46 PM
My understanding is nothing as she did not get to the 4% required.

In NSW you can only get reimbursement for receipted expenses anyway.

Kevin Bonham
13-04-2011, 09:07 PM
There is a case that Hanson was diddled by the electoral system, although there's also a case that parties whose followers can't follow simple instructions on a ballot paper shouldn't be in parliament. Anyway the issue is that Hanson had a massive below-the-line vote and that a large number of informal votes are believed to have been wannabe 1-Hanson-below-the-liners who just voted 1 instead of voting 1 to 15 as required for BTLs.

antichrist
13-04-2011, 09:41 PM
There is a case that Hanson was diddled by the electoral system, although there's also a case that parties whose followers can't follow simple instructions on a ballot paper shouldn't be in parliament. Anyway the issue is that Hanson had a massive below-the-line vote and that a large number of informal votes are believed to have been wannabe 1-Hanson-below-the-liners who just voted 1 instead of voting 1 to 15 as required for BTLs.

The bolded section is exactly the excuse that Indonesia used to defranchise the west Papuans from their vote, autonomy and government - and there has been genocide and robbery ever since.

So would you like to retract my poll specialist

antichrist
13-04-2011, 09:45 PM
there are people in outlyiing areas who surprisingly cannot fill out forms etc.

I votede below the line to about 75, and was informed verbally to fill out at least 15 and this was stated on ballot form as well. I love the extra troouble of giving the counters of zigzagging 75 times - like Beatles song of Helter Skelter

Kevin Bonham
13-04-2011, 09:54 PM
The bolded section is exactly the excuse that Indonesia used to defranchise the west Papuans from their vote, autonomy and government

There was supposed to be a referendum and Indonesia rorted it by turning it into a council of elder types (who of course could be easily leant-on). Did they actually use illiteracy as an argument? In any case the party most at fault is most likely the UN for recognising the outcome of a suspect poll that deviated massively from the agreed format.


So would you like to retract my poll specialist

Not really since the comment was a flippant one in the first place. :lol:

antichrist
13-04-2011, 09:58 PM
they did use illiteracy as an excuse, reminds me white aust policy when they could be examned in any language

Kevin Bonham
16-04-2011, 09:30 PM
For anyone foolish enough to be interested in Tasmanian legislative council elections, I have written a preview/analysis of the three May 7 contests here:

http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php?/weblog/article/kev-linzo/

pappubahry
16-04-2011, 10:17 PM
For anyone foolish enough to be interested in Tasmanian legislative council elections, I have written a preview/analysis of the three May 7 contests here:

http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php?/weblog/article/kev-linzo/
:lol: I make that about one word for every 14 votes!

Kevin Bonham
16-04-2011, 10:23 PM
Sounds about right! For Hobart City Council elections I reckon my total output could be something like a word for every two or three votes.

Kevin Bonham
20-04-2011, 11:27 PM
More good news for SA Labor tonight. As if the 40-60 Advertiser poll wasn't bad enough (though 'Tiser polls are pretty dodgy on the whole) one of their ministers has been arrested on child porn charges. There is currently a suppression order on the identity of the suspect but this (http://www.sapolicenews.com.au/more-news/1348-man-arrested-for-alleged-child-exploitation-offences.html), apparently referring to the same case, is enough to narrow the field considerably.

Hobbes
21-04-2011, 09:47 AM
"I am a servant of Christ and subject of His reign in history"

Hobbes
21-04-2011, 12:08 PM
Bernard Finnigan has resigned from South Australian Cabinet.

Kevin Bonham
04-05-2011, 10:24 PM
Hanson is off to the Court of Disputed Returns:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/05/04/3207887.htm

I'm not aware of any reason to believe she has a valid case, though the use of randomisation in the NSW process means that if there is ever an extremely close contest things will be interesting.

Desmond
05-05-2011, 11:04 AM
Hanson is off to the Court of Disputed Returns:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/05/04/3207887.htm

I'm not aware of any reason to believe she has a valid case, though the use of randomisation in the NSW process means that if there is ever an extremely close contest things will be interesting.
Supreme court verdict: QQ more, case closed.

antichrist
06-05-2011, 06:46 PM
"I am a servant of Christ and subject of His reign in history"

Is this in the wrong thread or are you referring to the porno policitican?

Kevin Bonham
06-05-2011, 06:49 PM
The latter.

Kevin Bonham
07-05-2011, 01:12 PM
http://www.theherald.com.au/news/local/news/general/votes-in-blank-ballots-hanson-claims/2154625.aspx

Hanson claims to have some interesting leaked electoral official emails. I'd assume that the formal Hanson votes incorrectly initially counted as informal would have been fixed later in the process, but if these emails even exist that is poor form by those responsible.

antichrist
07-05-2011, 02:03 PM
http://www.theherald.com.au/news/local/news/general/votes-in-blank-ballots-hanson-claims/2154625.aspx

Hanson claims to have some interesting leaked electoral official emails. I'd assume that the formal Hanson votes incorrectly initially counted as informal would have been fixed later in the process, but if these emails even exist that is poor form by those responsible.

Poor form by those sending the emails or those responsible for the counting?

She has always been a whinger that lady.

Karl Marx got her right

Kevin Bonham
07-05-2011, 05:45 PM
Poor form by those sending the emails or those responsible for the counting?

Mainly the former. Undertalented counting staff are an occupational hazard, unless the counting staff were deliberately doing it out of bias.

Kevin Bonham
11-05-2011, 12:12 AM
I successfully advanced tipped all three winners in the Tas LegCo elections last weekend although one of those was a no-brainer.

Derwent: Rock solid Labor seat for decades. Slight backlash against incumbent quitting early to grab super and choice of relatively low profile replacement (not to mention Labor being generally disliked here at the moment). Labor taken to preferences for a change but still ended up winning with 56.6% 2CP, a swing against them of about five.

Launceston: Vacated by long-serving independent in very pro-Liberal area. Labor and Liberal both endorsed candidates for this but the Labor candidate made no real effort while the Lib made rather too much and seemed to be a bit of a tryhard. Libs getting desperate tried a scare campaign against the two independent candidates which didn't go down well at all. Lib candidate led on preferences but was destroyed by green-tinged conservative independent, 56-44.

Rumney: Two-term Labor incumbent faced the people in what based on state results was now marginal territory. The incumbent had been plagued with scandals over the past two years; her primary vote wasn't down too much but on preferences - even of the left-wing candidates - she was caned and the unendorsed Liberal candidate (a leftie by Lib standards) got up, 53-47.

The reason the Lib was unendorsed is the Libs had a faction-fight over who to preselect so he decided to run without formal party backing. Seemed to work in his favour anyway.

Historically most upper house members have been "independents" (some more independent than others). Labor had 5/15 seats plus a Labor-aligned independent ten years ago. They are now down to 2/15 and one of those will be lost next year almost certainly.

Kevin Bonham
11-05-2011, 09:55 PM
Former Tas premier David Bartlett has resigned from the ministry so Giddings has had to replace two ministers in a week. Cabinet has been rearranged with backbench first-termer Scott Bacon (not reliably known to have done anything since being elected) becoming the third first-termer to get ministries.

Bartlett is going to quit parliament in a few months and it is likely his countback will elect a hack who polled the second-lowest primary vote of any candidate in the electorate, finishing ahead only of the Socialist Alliance.

Kevin Bonham
13-05-2011, 11:15 PM
Barty (known to a select circle of his closest friends as Spammer) copped a lot of abuse for his plan to hang around on the backbench a few months and has therefore exited now.

Kevin Bonham
18-05-2011, 08:03 PM
The Anna Bligh disaster-response bounce seen in polls is slowly subsiding. The current Newspoll shows the LNP way ahead (60-40) and while Bligh's net approval rating is nothing like the horrible -43 pre-flood it has gone back into negative territory (-10). It doesn't look like the floods are going to save Labor at the moment.

Kevin Bonham
09-06-2011, 01:50 AM
Hanson claims to have some interesting leaked electoral official emails. I'd assume that the formal Hanson votes incorrectly initially counted as informal would have been fixed later in the process, but if these emails even exist that is poor form by those responsible.

And people wonder why I often word things so cautiously! Not only do those claimed to have sent the emails deny sending them, but also it is now unclear whether or not the person who passed them to Hanson exists (at least under the name claimed on his Facebook page.)

Rincewind
09-06-2011, 06:24 PM
And people wonder why I often word things so cautiously! Not only do those claimed to have sent the emails deny sending them, but also it is now unclear whether or not the person who passed them to Hanson exists (at least under the name claimed on his Facebook page.)

Yes the whole case seems to have taken a turn for the twilight zone with key witness Michael Rattner (if that is his real name) failed to show in court. It is beginning to look very likely that the whole thing is a fabrication and Pauline Hanson has been duped into the court action.

antichrist
09-06-2011, 06:42 PM
Yes the whole case seems to have taken a turn for the twilight zone with key witness Michael Rattner (if that is his real name) failed to show in court. It is beginning to look very likely that the whole thing is a fabrication and Pauline Hanson has been duped into the court action.

Funny, last time it was that pic that supposedly shown her naked. So much melodrama in her life the past ten years

Kevin Bonham
09-06-2011, 10:24 PM
Hanson is more a political soap opera than a serious political figure. It would have been bizarre if she had actually been elected to something again.

Rincewind
11-06-2011, 11:57 PM
Yes the whole case seems to have taken a turn for the twilight zone with key witness Michael Rattner (if that is his real name) failed to show in court. It is beginning to look very likely that the whole thing is a fabrication and Pauline Hanson has been duped into the court action.

"Michael Rattner" did face court but it turns out his name is Sean Castle and he is a Sydney school teacher (Michael Rattner claimed to be a Queensland construction worker). We're told that next week all will be made clear.

antichrist
12-06-2011, 09:54 AM
Hanson is more a political soap opera than a serious political figure. It would have been bizarre if she had actually been elected to something again.

She is only a product of Keating's floating of the dollar and subsequent invasion by Japanese money into the Gold Coast, and the resultant high interest rate sending primary producers bankrupt and their farms and equipment being sold off by Commonwealth Bank for peanuts. She can be seen as a hero and martyr by some though her racism was obnoxious. In a way even that was just a form of nationalism.

Kevin Bonham
14-06-2011, 06:36 PM
Oh dear. Sean Castle has now admitted he faked the emails. What's more, he has managed to get himself immunity from prosecution for his testimony so Hanson will likely go down in a screaming heap with costs.

antichrist
14-06-2011, 07:52 PM
Oh dear. Sean Castle has now admitted he faked the emails. What's more, he has managed to get himself immunity from prosecution for his testimony so Hanson will likely go down in a screaming heap with costs.

it isn't fair! pleased explain! Well she won a bundle from newspapers defamo, from election fees, donations etc so she can probably afford it. Katter is still carrying the same battles, a much more persistent campaginer without the "charisma" of Hanson. Unfortunately he is limited intellectually and has old Country Party blinkers still on.

Kevin Bonham
02-08-2011, 10:06 PM
Mike Rann has supposedly been told to get out in favour of Jay Weatherill by around the end of the year but no exact date of departure has been set.

Kevin Bonham
09-08-2011, 01:14 AM
Apparently going by October 20 now.

Kevin Bonham
10-08-2011, 12:26 AM
Aidan McLindon's Queensland Party (an LNP breakaway) has merged with Katter's Australian Party.

Garvinator
11-08-2011, 12:53 AM
Aidan McLindon's Queensland Party (an LNP breakaway) has merged with Katter's Australian Party.
And it is looking like Aidan is facing a revolt from inside his new Qld Party.

Kevin Bonham
11-08-2011, 12:59 AM
And it is looking like Aidan is facing a revolt from inside his new Qld Party.

Yes, the author of the Queensland Party's constitution is claiming the merger is unconstitutional. It seems the impetus for the merger came from Katter being frustrated with the Queensland registration process.

Garvinator
29-08-2011, 12:03 AM
The Qld Labor Government is now back to its pre flood polling numbers.

Kevin Bonham
29-08-2011, 12:24 AM
The Qld Labor Government is now back to its pre flood polling numbers.

Yes; these numbers are pre a flood of a different kind, ie the one that will most likely sweep them away.

Kevin Bonham
31-08-2011, 11:35 PM
An EMRS poll shows Labor here in Tas on 22 points with undecideds redistributed, although I think it should be more like 26 (in practice the Greens do not get any undecided vote). Using the incorrect way EMRS report their results the Labor primary is 16. Anyway if the poll is anything like correct the Liberals would win an election held now in a landslide, reducing Labor to five or six seats out of 25.

However I have given the poll the raspberry (http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php?/weblog/article/atrocious-poll-or-just-atrocious-polling/show_comments) and declared it to be scientifically inadequate because the question about voting intention was reportedly buried under other questions that could have unwittingly "trained" the voter to think about issues that would make them prefer the Liberal Party. It is a basic industry standard that if you ask about voting intention, you ask about voting intention first. This is not-knowing-how-the-horsey-moves stuff from a company that's been polling for over a decade.

I believe this is just a result of incompetence by the pollster but it mirrors a tactic frequently used deliberately in dodgy polls commissioned by activist groups, which I have been railing against for years.

I have no doubt the Government here is in incredible levels of trouble and very little doubt it will be smashed at the next election but this poll does not tell us much we did not already know, because it cannot be trusted.

Garvinator
31-08-2011, 11:42 PM
It does look like we are going to go from Wall to Wall Labor in 2007 to possibly Wall to Wall Coalition by 2014 at the latest. An amazing turnaround.

Rincewind
01-09-2011, 10:02 AM
An amazing turnaround.

Only if you believe there is any substantial difference between the two.

Hobbes
02-09-2011, 01:31 PM
I just liked this quote, a throwaway line from a David Penberthy article:-


In South Australia, right now, there is the ludicrous situation of Mike Rann insisting on an extended lap of honour while he leads Jay Weatherill up and down King William St wearing a pair of L-plates.

Igor_Goldenberg
02-09-2011, 05:04 PM
Question to Kevin:
What are the feelings in Denison re Wilkie? Does he have a viable chance to retain the seat?
Specifically if he pulls support from Gillard because of pokies, does not support Abbott and causes a new election, what's his chances are going to be?

Kevin Bonham
02-09-2011, 06:34 PM
Question to Kevin:
What are the feelings in Denison re Wilkie?

Various noises are made for or against him by various usual suspects but there has been no polling at all. On Tasmanian Times which is a rather left-leaning site there is quite a bit of Wilkie-trolling even by leftists but he is not complained about nearly as much as the state Greens. One disadvantage for Wilkie is that a political journalist who happened to be very pro-Wilkie has left the state so he does not get as much oxygen in the mainstream press as he used to.


Does he have a viable chance to retain the seat?

I think it will be quite difficult for him but it is possible. He needs to peel more votes from Labor to compensate for a likely downturn in Liberal preferences. That will be very challenging since Labor will probably run a much better candidate and take the seat much more seriously next time. Wilkie was elected as a protest, he shouldn't expect re-election but it might still happen.


Specifically if he pulls support from Gillard because of pokies, does not support Abbott and causes a new election, what's his chances are going to be?

In the current environment unless he directly supports Abbott (at least by voting for a no confidence motion) he won't cause a new election. If he just decides to vacate the house during confidence motions it is 75-74 and the Speaker's casting vote keeps Labor in power.

If he causes either an election, or Abbott to become PM I believe he is finished since the lefties (and Denison is a very left-wing seat) will not vote for him or preference him again.

Hobbes
15-09-2011, 12:55 PM
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/staff-shocked-as-mike-rann-vows-to-take-aim-at-kinky-catholics/story-e6frgczx-1226137293860


SOUTH Australian Premier Mike Rann has vowed to name and shame "kinky Catholics" in parliament.

Rincewind
15-09-2011, 01:43 PM
Seems a very silly thing to say. Probably says more about Mike Rann's ability to adjust to a future on the backbenches than anything else. :)

Capablanca-Fan
19-09-2011, 03:27 PM
Ted Baillieu should listen to his committee not human rights lobbyists (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/ted-baillieu-should-listen-to-his-committee-not-human-rights-lobbyists/story-e6frgd0x-1226140342452)
James Allan, Garrick Professor of Law at the University of Queensland
The Australian September 19, 2011


Personally, I think a complete repeal of this Charter of Rights should have been recommended and that the committee's majority recommendation is half-hearted. That said, as half-hearted recommendations go, this was pretty good for those of us who think statutory bills of rights undermine democracy.

You see the committee's report notes that the direct costs of this 2006 charter have been nearly $14 million and the indirect costs on top of that impossible to know (though we can be pretty sure that lawyers captured a good chunk of them).

Repeal would be the best course of action. But the parliamentary committee's majority recommendation is certainly an important, and highly desirable, second best.

Alas, there are already reports that Premier Ted Baillieu is distancing himself from the majority recommendation of the parliamentary committee that he himself set up. He's hedging his bets and making noises that he might not be prepared to offend all the vested self-styled human rights' lobby groups and lawyers' interests.

You might wonder why this would be, given that most of us suspect that few of these groups and people vote for the Coalition or support the Baillieu government. Well, it takes cojones to take on these sort of interests, who will all scream blue murder if the government over the next six months opts to do what the parliamentary committee majority report recommends. The government will need a strong attachment to principle, and in particular to democratic decision-making, even about rights-related issues.

It will be interesting to see if Baillieu will opt to disappoint the human rights lobby groups, or many of his own core supporters. Either way, come the next Victorian election all voters there will be able to cast a vote on whether electing a Baillieu government has been a pretty meaningless experience, or not.

Garvinator
19-09-2011, 04:08 PM
One thing that really irks me that seems to always happen is that any Government or council of the day will send some item off to some special 'independant' committee and then when that committee reports back with a long list of recommendations, Governments never implement all the recommendations at once, but instead just cherry picks some of the recommendations.

Hobbes
23-09-2011, 03:49 PM
Articles today saying that an unnamed NSW Government Minister was seen 'performing a gay sex act in public'. I assumed that no names would be named, but this article (http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydney-nsw/minister-linked-to-gay-sex-in-public-allegations/story-e6freuzi-1226144017145) says:


Speaking at an unrelated press conference in Parramatta this afternoon, the premier said he had a face-to-face talk with the 62-year-old minister involved yesterday, who denied the allegations "point blank".

I am too lazy to look up list of ministers and their ages, but you would think there wouldn't be too many ministers who are exactly 62 years old!

Kevin Bonham
23-09-2011, 10:36 PM
There is precisely one. The police are not proceding with charges over the unproven allegations. Vexnews has covered the matter in detail for those too lazy to match ages to names. :lol:

Igor_Goldenberg
03-10-2011, 03:31 PM
Is it a crime for NSW ministers to be involved in gay sex?
First Campbell is forced to quit, then "62 years old minister" attacked.

Strangely, gay rights activists are silent, even though double standard is evident.
Campbell visits males prostitutes and is forced to resign (by NSW ALP).
Thomson visits females prostitutes and receives 100K donation (from NSW ALP).

One would expect gay right groups to be in arms, but their silence is deafening.

Kevin Bonham
15-12-2011, 10:24 PM
Tassie could soon have our fourth premier in four years; Lara Giddings has got the unions offside with spending cuts and it appears she may soon be rolled by ex union figure David O'Byrne, who has only been in parliament since last March but has performed rather well (unlike Giddings). Seems like madness to take over a government that seems to be going down in a screaming heap no matter who its leader is but perhaps the plotters figure that they will be in opposition for so long anyway that a couple of years on the frontbench is better than nothing.

antichrist
19-12-2011, 09:55 PM
Is it a crime for NSW ministers to be involved in gay sex?
First Campbell is forced to quit, then "62 years old minister" attacked.

Strangely, gay rights activists are silent, even though double standard is evident.
Campbell visits males prostitutes and is forced to resign (by NSW ALP).
Thomson visits females prostitutes and receives 100K donation (from NSW ALP).

One would expect gay right groups to be in arms, but their silence is deafening.

CAmpbell was not forced to quit because of gay sex, it may have been because he had his phone turned off during an emergency whilst maybe having gay sex - not that he has to have his finger on the pulse Sydney streets every peak hour.

If he had his phone off due to being at church there probably would not have been an outcry even though same result due to same reason. A sin of the spirit is preferable to a sin of the flesh.

Kevin Bonham
19-12-2011, 10:05 PM
Tassie could soon have our fourth premier in four years

Supposedly O'Byrne has holstered the gun after he got whatever he wanted from Giddings policy-wise through the threat he might displace her.

Kevin Bonham
26-01-2012, 01:22 AM
Queensland election March 24 so Queensland will experience the joys of a two-month campaign.

This is probably all a save-the-furniture exercise for Labor; I don't think they have that much chance of avoiding outright defeat and the question is whether it will be a respectable defeat, a generically bad defeat or an almost-NSW-scale wipeout. Probably their best shot is if Newman looks like not winning his seat and then they can start a scare campaign about who might actually be Premier but I doubt anyone will care anyway. This is a government that couldn't turn its strong handling of a flood crisis into a lasting positive so I don't believe it's going to be running any kind of tactical masterpiece of campaigning. Federal Labor is also a big problem for state Labor in this instance. The LNP have shown a lot of ability to bungle preselections and stuff up seats in the past but this one might be beyond even their skills to make a mess of.

Some buzzing fly trying to get my attention is suggesting I should post a prediction now "instead using of his long time tactic of waiting a few days out from the election to make his predictions when polls are largely indicative of what will happen." However, firstly, polls taken a few days out are not largely indicative in cases of close results - often the margin of error of polling can be the difference between a comfortable retention of office and a very close loss, or between a fairly close election and a mashing. Polls also don't say how the late deciders will vote, and also most polling companies have inaccuracies of some sort in their output. Pretty much all serious analysts post their predictions quite close to the event because the further out you go the higher the error rate no matter how good you are.

Desmond
26-01-2012, 06:33 AM
The government's handling of the flood was indeed a big positive at the time. As you point out it was quite some time ago now and not front of mind for most people. Compared to, oh say, Qld Health matters. Don't forget Can-do Campbell was also front and centre for the flood crisis too. And a report has just come out about the flood which from my understanding suggests a mis-management of the overflow protocols leading up to the crisis - if so, the buck stops with the gov't.

Kevin Bonham
27-01-2012, 01:24 PM
I see the Tool has taken down his prediction of a hung parliament. That's odd because here (http://andrewelder.blogspot.com/2012/01/why-queensland-election-matters.html) Andrew Elder has predicted a seat tally almost identical to Alex's!

The view that the polls are predictively useless and the LNP is going to tie itself in knots and tank is certainly out there. My suspicion is that the government is so on the nose that even that won't save it.

Garvinator
28-01-2012, 01:09 AM
The government's handling of the flood was indeed a big positive at the time. As you point out it was quite some time ago now and not front of mind for most people.People also remember how poorly the government response was to the Premiers Disaster relief fund and all the matters relating to insurance.


Don't forget Can-do Campbell was also front and centre for the flood crisis too. He has also been front and centre for the building of toll roads and increased debt for little benefit. What says he will be any different if the LNP is in Government?


And a report has just come out about the flood which from my understanding suggests a mis-management of the overflow protocols leading up to the crisis - if so, the buck stops with the gov't.I am not sure if this will make much difference to how people will vote. Labor is gone even without this.

I have a feeling that most people have a fair idea of what occurred that caused the flooding from at least a perception point of view.

The flood report is important for further legal action.

antichrist
28-01-2012, 01:22 PM
the flooding was a result of overpopulation in the wrong areas, happens all around the world, unless maybe the dam was built after the population came probably to cater for the same people.

Desmond
03-02-2012, 07:12 PM
And a report has just come out about the flood which from my understanding suggests a mis-management of the overflow protocols leading up to the crisis - if so, the buck stops with the gov't.Story on this on last's night's 7:30 report (http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2012/s3421924.htm).

Kevin Bonham
11-02-2012, 01:33 PM
Clive Palmer has predicted a Labor seat tally for Queensland of zero!

Some polling has been claiming to show that Ashgrove is very close and that Newman might not win the seat. However the polling methods are very dubious - see Antony Green's analysis here (http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/02/how-should-reachtels-ashgrove-polls-be-interpreted.html) for reasons. That said, the trend seems to show the seat becoming closer.

Kevin Bonham
11-02-2012, 10:26 PM
Two by-elections in SA today to replace the departed Labor leadership team. Labor won both but one of those (Port Adelaide) was a pretty close-run thing with an independent. This may bring scrutiny upon the Liberals' decision to not contest either.

antichrist
13-02-2012, 01:12 PM
Clive Palmer has predicted a Labor seat tally for Queensland of zero!

Some polling has been claiming to show that Ashgrove is very close and that Newman might not win the seat. However the polling methods are very dubious - see Antony Green's analysis here (http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/02/how-should-reachtels-ashgrove-polls-be-interpreted.html) for reasons. That said, the trend seems to show the seat becoming closer.

Clive Palmer should stop worrying about money and instead of getting his girth down - the place he is heading all that money won't mean much

Kevin Bonham
14-02-2012, 01:32 AM
Tasmania has been having a "forestry peace process" which has mostly consisted of a bunch of environment groups (by no means all of them) trying to convince the logging industry and the state and federal governments to get out of logging what they claim to be "High Conservation Value" forests.

Their definition of "High Conservation Value" is based on a great big fudge of the definitions used by the Forest Stewardship Council. Anyway, the State and Federal Governments made an agreement, then made a slightly different agreement which the green groups went bonkers about, and now an amusing hurdle has appeared.

Twelve of the fifteen members of the Tasmanian Legislative Council (our state upper house) have announced that they will not be approving any of the reserves required under the current "peace deal" until green groups cease activist campaigning that damages markets for the state's timber companies overseas. (Of these twelve one is an endorsed Liberal and the rest are "independent" although some are unendorsed party members.)

As only a few members of the LegCo go to the polls every year, in elections that almost make the Toolbox's look good, it could take a very long time to get enough of them voted out to reverse this, especially given that the majority might well support their action anyway. I'm really not sure where the green groups go from here but His Bobness is ranting and raving and clearly very annoyed!

Kevin Bonham
05-03-2012, 11:21 PM
Katter's Australian Party is making a nuisance of itself by bringing a court case about its ballot registration as "The Australian Party". The case seems to be completely meritless and to be just an example of either bungling or publicity seeking by KAP.

Desmond
18-03-2012, 12:19 PM
The government's handling of the flood was indeed a big positive at the time. As you point out it was quite some time ago now and not front of mind for most people. Compared to, oh say, Qld Health matters. Don't forget Can-do Campbell was also front and centre for the flood crisis too. And a report has just come out about the flood which from my understanding suggests a mis-management of the overflow protocols leading up to the crisis - if so, the buck stops with the gov't.
Damages to flow from Wivenhoe Dam breach (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/damages-to-flow-from-wivenhoe-dam-breach/story-fn59niix-1226302194752)


THE Queensland government has been exposed to the threat of a billion-dollar compensation claim from flood victims and insurers after a royal commission-style probe found the Wivenhoe Dam was mismanaged and that a cover-up attempted to conceal the truth.

The Floods Commission of Inquiry's finding that the engineers who operated Australia's largest dam failed to adopt the correct strategy to protect Brisbane from inundation for about 36 hours from Saturday, January 8, last year, has given a major boost to the hopes of thousands of victims.

The final report of the controversial floods inquiry highlights misleading evidence by the flood engineers, three of whom have been referred to Queensland's anti-corruption body, the Crime and Misconduct Commission, for further investigation and possible perjury-related charges.

The report opens the door for litigation, foreshadowed by Maurice Blackburn lawyers yesterday as "the largest class action in Australia's history".

...

Kevin Bonham
24-03-2012, 01:23 AM
Queensland is really shaping up as NSW Part II based on the polling. Perhaps as in NSW the most dire results might be avoided and they might hold something like 18-20 seats rather than the dozen or so some are predicting, but I'm not convinced the electoral geography of Brisbane is as kind to them as that of NSW, and I think their result of a slightly smaller swing could actually be significantly worse than NSW. The point's been made that there are not as many "safe" seats, perhaps because Brisbane's suburbs are a lot more mixed than Sydney's. For instance Labor goes to this election with just 13 on margins of 10%+ (some of which may fall) compared to NSW where there were 33 such (a massive 15 of which fell on a state swing of 14%). I haven't seen any prediction from a credible source that is over low-20s in seat numbers. The lowest predictions from credible sources I've seen (sorry Clive, you don't count here) are about 11. (It's not beyond credibility it could be lower than that, but as with NSW there should be just a little step back from the abyss!)

Newman shouldn't have much trouble in Ashgrove now. Be surprised if it's inside 53-47.

I think the KAPper fruitloops should get a solid vote (high single figures, perhaps they might even crack 10%) but whether it translates into many seats is not something I've looked at much. Their problem cf. One Nation in 1998 is that One Nation benefited from a collapsing conservative vote. Ripping votes off the tories when their vote isn't collapsing isn't as effective, nor is ripping votes off Labor in seats where it was already dead.

I know Labor was in an awful position to start with and hence can't be blamed for taking risks in the hope of landing a few punches but for all that their campaign has been a steaming pile. It's been so bad that even when the LNP runs "20 Years Of Labor" ads as if Rob Borbidge never existed, they get away with it.

Worst attack ad, barring those made by obvious lunatics: Campbell's Web series, not so much because they are so ineffectual and easy to take the mickey out of, but more because of the smugly insinuating ooh-er whiny vocals that sound more like a Lib attack ad than a Labor one.

Best attack ad: This one (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FAyZcBjNNU) which satirises this positive one from the previous election (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbyRkphQlJs).

MantaMan
24-03-2012, 10:46 AM
Out on my morning ride this morning - Through about 4 electorates I think.

Anyway the Labor party's last minute plea features a picture of Campbell Newman Saying something akin to "don't give them too much power"

Surprising thing is that the booths featured wall to wall posters of Campbell from both ALP and LNP sides - 2 Pics of Bligh (sort of hiding) and well - none of the local candidate.

Interesting.

Suspect ALP may be helping LNP with this approach.


MM

Kevin Bonham
24-03-2012, 10:53 AM
Asking the electorate not to give the incoming government too much power never really worked before, although maybe the "Wall To Wall Labor Debt" scare campaign had some impact federally in limiting the damage when Howard lost.

MantaMan
24-03-2012, 11:07 AM
The wall to wall pictures of Mr Newman look like a mistake to me. Took me a while to figure out is was ALP. I thought the LNP had got up super early and plastered the booths with pics of Campbell.

Anyway - pretty much a forgone conclusion.

Only question is 'how bad it will be' and can any of the mad katter in the hatter party folks get up.

MM

Desmond
24-03-2012, 12:01 PM
The wall to wall pictures of Mr Newman look like a mistake to me. Took me a while to figure out is was ALP. I thought the LNP had got up super early and plastered the booths with pics of Campbell. Can't say I noticed that in my local. Then again I pretty much keep my head down and try to avoid eye contact while running the gauntlet of people handing out pamphlets explaining how to write a "1".

I didn't pick up any of the "also ran" party sheets, but of the two main ones they had no preferences listed.


Anyway - pretty much a forgone conclusion. In spite of Newman, yes that would seem to be the case.


Only question is 'how bad it will be' and can any of the mad katter in the hatter party folks get up. Oh gawd I hope not.

Desmond
24-03-2012, 05:52 PM
Peter Beattie is looking well - has he lost a heap of weight?

Kevin Bonham
24-03-2012, 05:57 PM
I'll be posting some comments at

http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php?/weblog/article/the-verdict3/

Post some here too when the fuss dies down!

Kevin Bonham
24-03-2012, 07:07 PM
Labor struggling to get their cricket team at this rate on my assessment.

Goughfather
24-03-2012, 07:22 PM
Labor struggling to get their cricket team at this rate on my assessment.

The ABC projects 10 seats.

Having lived in both states for reasonable periods of time, the impression I got was that the ALP was not despised in Queensland quite so much as it was in NSW and that there were fewer scandals. Notwithstanding that, the ALP has performed even worse than they did in NSW. This could have something to do with the fact that Sydney is a much more natural environment for the ALP than Brisbane. In any event, however, it is an appalling result for the Bligh government.

Kevin Bonham
24-03-2012, 07:37 PM
The ABC projects 10 seats.

I think that's verging on optimistic.


Notwithstanding that, the ALP has performed even worse than they did in NSW. This could have something to do with the fact that Sydney is a much more natural environment for the ALP than Brisbane.

Yeah, it is the different city geography. Brisbane is a smaller city with more mixed suburbs and hence fewer seats immune to a swing of this size.

Basil
24-03-2012, 07:51 PM
QLD Labor has its batting sorted to 3rd drop. Looking to pick a specialist wicki and the bowlers ;)

Desmond
24-03-2012, 08:14 PM
Looks like Bligh might hold her own seat by a whisker. Maybe she'd wish she didn't.

Kevin Bonham
24-03-2012, 08:22 PM
Bligh's pretty safe now. They're safe in five, leading in three, and not without hope in another 3-4 - and that's all!

Basil
24-03-2012, 08:25 PM
Looks like Bligh might hold her own seat by a whisker. Maybe she'd wish she didn't.
Greens dragging Bligh's arse, scraping and bumping, across the line.

Kevin Bonham
24-03-2012, 09:25 PM
Settling down now at seven to nine seats to Labor. I'd say it was the worst result credibly possible except that one of those they are winning (Mulgrave) is a fluke where the KAP vote combined with optional preferencing has saved them.

MantaMan
24-03-2012, 09:53 PM
gee KB i though 11 was as low as it could go.

MY seat which was dyed in the red labor looks like it has gone!

Baseball bats - NOOOOOOO

Bazookas perhaps

- MM

Basil
24-03-2012, 10:00 PM
ALP's first press release since the election announces that the entire opposition will be car pooling.

MantaMan
24-03-2012, 10:02 PM
opposition - what opposition?

Kevin Bonham
24-03-2012, 10:26 PM
The 2PP is almost exactly the same as in NSW. The exit polls outperformed the polling even the day before because there was a further snowballing to the LNP on the final day, possibly prompted by the stupid white-flag tactics that MantaMan commented about.

MantaMan
24-03-2012, 10:31 PM
have to say that I'm stunned.

At best we will get 10

Ar worst......

Clealry on the the nose big time

MM

Kevin Bonham
24-03-2012, 10:43 PM
Something I looked at recently is the history of long-lived governments both state and federal.

In the period 1932-1989 every state in Australia, plus Australia federally, had one government that (not counting minor realignments and rebadgings) lasted 20 years or more, excepting Queensland which had two in a row and WA which had none.

In 1962 there were simultaneously four governments that were more than 20 years old and two others that would later become so.

Since 1989 no government has lived for more than 16 years nor won an election when it had been in office more than twelve.

Tasmania now has the oldest government, which is 14 years old and currently in minority; it will almost certainly be smashed to pieces when we have our next election. The SA government will be 12 years old at the next election.

Agent Smith
24-03-2012, 11:00 PM
have to say that I'm stunned.

At best we will get 10

Ar worst......

Clealry on the the nose big time

MM
I really took offense at their public resource privatisation.
Combined with the major hospital payroll, flood and damn debacles.
And Newman comes across as a fairly moderate LNPer

See ya Anna. ;) Interesting to see the aftermath.

ER
24-03-2012, 11:01 PM
Labor struggling to get their cricket team at this rate on my assessment.

Twelfth man?

pax
25-03-2012, 12:21 AM
How does any opposition function with only 7 members? I suppose Tasmania is the only place where it has happened before (in 2002), where it was a whole lot less remarkable since the drop to 25 Assembly seats. The result is doubly disastous in Qld, where there is no upper house.

So what do they do? Perhaps they could target the 20 most winnable seats at the next election and preselect candidates now, to act as "shadow" members assisting the 7 actual members with portfolio responsibilities and so on?

It will be interesting to see how this develops - it's a unique situation in Australian parliamentary history.

Kevin Bonham
25-03-2012, 12:58 AM
How does any opposition function with only 7 members? I suppose Tasmania is the only place where it has happened before (in 2002), where it was a whole lot less remarkable since the drop to 25 Assembly seats.

Yes, and also in 2002 Jim Bacon had the rather neat idea of declaring the Liberals and Greens to be both "oppositions", so that there was officially a Liberal Opposition (7 seats) and a Greens Opposition (4). Plus Tasmania is a much smaller state and much easier to run multiple portfolios in than Queensland. This Opposition is going to struggle terribly. In terms of proportion of the parliament for a first-term opposition nothing like this has happened before. At least they still are the Opposition, so it's not quite like the Progressive Conservative wipeout in Canada. Queensland is going to be practically a one-party state.

NT probably doesn't count, being more like a council than a real state government, but in the 25-seat NT Parliament Labor had 6-7 seats for a long time before winning. At one stage the CLP were kicked down to 4 but nearly won the next election (thanks to the gift of Labor infighting).

A special difficulty for Labor at the next election is the sophomore effect. First-termers pick up a personal vote that makes them harder to beat at their second election. So almost every seat Labor tries to win, it will be needing a few points of swing to it just to cancel that out. Realistically going to be really hard to get above the 20s in seat numbers next time unless the LNP gets ahead of itself and starts infighting.


Perhaps they could target the 20 most winnable seats at the next election and preselect candidates now, to act as "shadow" members assisting the 7 actual members with portfolio responsibilities and so on?

Yeah, having spokesmen outside the parliamentary party might be not a bad idea to try to lighten the load. The Liberals did this a little bit here for a while. It's the sort of idea that needs to be introduced slowly and carefully, maybe over a year or so.

Perhaps the good news for whoever is Labor leader is that the situation is so dire that there can be no expectations whatsoever and therefore they probably won't get the kind of pressure that comes with uncompetitive performance.

What do they do about Bligh? If she quits some indie might get the by-election and then things would be even worse.

pax
25-03-2012, 01:04 PM
What do they do about Bligh? If she quits some indie might get the by-election and then things would be even worse.

And it has come to pass. What a disaster. Did the polls predict this big a train wreck? Should Anna Bligh have resigned before the election in order to avoid the embarrassment of resigning her seat immediately after having won it (and the corresponding risk of making a disastrous defeat even worse)?

pax
25-03-2012, 01:15 PM
It will also be interesting to see how the LNP handle such a huge majority. If the party is too monolithic, it may become unpopular very quickly.

I would hope that Newman encourages dissent and public debate within his party. Perhaps he could release his enormous backbench from the whip, allowing a certain amount of free vote - not enough to defeat his legislation obviously, but enough for it to feel like less of a rubber stamp. This would have the advantage for the Libs of making its own backbench seem more like the opposition than Labor.

Kevin Bonham
25-03-2012, 01:44 PM
Did the polls predict this big a train wreck?

Not quite. In the last week Morgan was the best with a 62:38, Newspoll had 60.8:39.2, Galaxy 60:40. Those results justified projections of about 11 seats. It snowballed to 64:36 on the final day probably because Labor's pathetic surrender tactics only made it worse.


Should Anna Bligh have resigned before the election in order to avoid the embarrassment of resigning her seat immediately after having won it (and the corresponding risk of making a disastrous defeat even worse)?

If she resigned during the formal campaign period Labor would not have been able to field a candidate. If she resigned a few months out that would also have been seen as a surrender tactic.

This all wouldn't be a problem if they hadn't run such an awful campaign. Without that they might have lost 56:44 or even 58:42 and still kept 20 seats or so and the potential loss of one more would be no big deal.

A good outcome for the LNP here would be for a strong indie to run for the seat as someone all the LNP supporters can vote for but who might peel off the Labor vote too. I really doubt the LNP can have many good candidates left. Even their bad ones already mostly got elected. [EDIT: Looks like the LNP are going to run for it anyway.]


I would hope that Newman encourages dissent and public debate within his party. Perhaps he could release his enormous backbench from the whip, allowing a certain amount of free vote - not enough to defeat his legislation obviously, but enough for it to feel like less of a rubber stamp. This would have the advantage for the Libs of making its own backbench seem more like the opposition than Labor.

Yes it is normal for Coalition parties to allow a fair degree of freedom to cross the floor (unlike Labor) and if the party does try to run itself too much as a monolithic Lib-centred party it will be bleeding votes to KAP all over the regions in the future. He especially needs to allow freedom because his party is of hybrid origin and if the "Nationals" are getting frozen out too much they could always split off again.

Adamski
25-03-2012, 04:20 PM
I can't believe Labour did so badly. It does not seem that long ago that Anna Bligh was the darling of the nation during the Qld floods.
Bligh resigning her setas gives labour quite a problem. Who will lead them? Most of the possible candidates have lost their seats.

Kevin Bonham
25-03-2012, 04:35 PM
Bligh resigning her setas gives labour quite a problem. Who will lead them? Most of the possible candidates have lost their seats.

The idea is that one of the defeated candidates can win her seat and possibly become leader. Cameron Dick and Andrew Fraser have been mentioned but there is doubt over whether Fraser is interested.

Annastacia Palaszczuk, who did retain her seat, was being talked about as a possible leader even before the full likely scale of the result was clear. Her main disadvantage would be that almost nobody can actually spell her name.

Tony Dowden
25-03-2012, 04:41 PM
Something I looked at recently is the history of long-lived governments both state and federal ... Tasmania ... will almost certainly be smashed to pieces when we have our next election

:hmm: I'm not so sure.

It was utterly ridiculous that Labor wasn't smashed to pieces in the last election. Former Premier Lennon's blatant meddling in the Resource Planning and Development Commission process when Gunns' pulp mill project was being assessed - charitably labelled as "completely inappropriate" by former Tasmanian judge Christopher Wright - firstly should have meant he would have had to resign, and secondly should have put Tassie Labor into opposition for at least a generation.

Of course this is assuming a half-decent state media ...

Kevin Bonham
25-03-2012, 05:05 PM
:hmm: I'm not so sure.

It was utterly ridiculous that Labor wasn't smashed to pieces in the last election.

They did still cop a massive 12% swing against them, which is similar to what happened in NSW and Qld, except that they were in a far more favourable starting position here so they only lost their majority instead of being booted altogether.

On current polling it will be another 12% next time.

While the Gunns issue contributed to Lennon's downfall I think his real problem was that Bartlett intended to roll him. Historically the voters who swing between major parties here don't care all that much about probity of government processes and are much more concerned about supporting majority government and reducing the power of the Greens. Those voters (who are more interested in voting against the Greens than for a specific major party) are about a fifth to a quarter of the electorate.

ElevatorEscapee
25-03-2012, 05:07 PM
With such an emphatic victory in QLD, maybe it's time for the Liberal & National parties there to separate into their own identities... :)

Capablanca-Fan
25-03-2012, 05:14 PM
With such an emphatic victory in QLD, maybe it's time for the Liberal & National parties there to separate into their own identities... :)
If only this NSW/QLD trend could continue and Australia gets rid of the diabolical duo JuLiar and the watermelon Brown and most of their supporters in Parliament.

Basil
25-03-2012, 06:36 PM
With such an emphatic victory in QLD, maybe it's time for the Liberal & National parties there to separate into their own identities... :)
Only if The Greens and the other minor party, The ALP do so first ;)

pappubahry
25-03-2012, 08:57 PM
A special difficulty for Labor at the next election is the sophomore effect.
I've seen this sophomore surge repeated sort of like a piece of folk pseph wisdom, but I've never seen any numbers on it - do you know of any studies done? Antony Green incorporated it into his election calculator, so presumably he's looked at it.

I tried to have a go myself this evening, though it's very rough. I took the swing to ALP on primaries for sophomores in Qld 1995-2009 and compared to the overall swing to ALP on primaries for each election. Labor sophomores averaged an extra 4% swing (N = 61); non-Labor sophomores had an average extra swing to Labor of -0.3% (N = 46).

So the numbers at least point in the right directions, but I didn't take into account redistributions, the whole One Nation thing probably messes things up and means that just looking at the ALP primary isn't the best thing to do, and the sample size isn't large enough for me to have much confidence in the results anyway....

Kevin Bonham
25-03-2012, 09:33 PM
I've seen this sophomore surge repeated sort of like a piece of folk pseph wisdom, but I've never seen any numbers on it - do you know of any studies done?

I've never seen a systematic study done across multiple elections but I've often seen results supporting it for particular elections. For instance Peter Brent found that in 1998 when Howard copped a 4.6% 2PP swing, the swing against Coalition sophomores (and there were a lot of them because of the scale of the '96 victory) was only 3.5%. There are lots of causation debates that can be had about whether it's really the name recognition factor that does it, or some underlying cause that's not so obvious. The size of it isn't massive (I don't know what Antony uses but it seems like it's no more than 2 points.)

ER
26-03-2012, 12:08 AM
Classic shout by Tony Dowden re QLD elections result! :lol:

Hey Jono, if you are awake in Atlanta, GA - it's safe to come back to QLD

Kevin Bonham
26-03-2012, 01:05 AM
This is also classic - candoqld.com.au has exceeded its bandwidth limit!

Capablanca-Fan
27-03-2012, 01:51 AM
Q. What is the difference between the Queensland Labor Party and a Tarago?

A. There are still at least 8 seats left in the Tarago.

Kevin Bonham
27-03-2012, 03:04 PM
Annastacia Palaszczuk, who did retain her seat, was being talked about as a possible leader even before the full likely scale of the result was clear.

...and will apparently get the job unopposed as of tomorrow.

Just trying to imagine what a parliament so utterly dominated by one party is going to look like. Normally the "crossbench" is somewhere near the middle. Question time will look rather peculiar.

Capablanca-Fan
27-03-2012, 04:41 PM
Classic shout by Tony Dowden re QLD elections result! :lol:
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Tony Dowden
27-03-2012, 05:48 PM
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Glad you read it Jono :D

Of course, you should appreciate that it's only soph-pseph advice :cool:

Tony Dowden
27-03-2012, 05:53 PM
Q. What is the difference between the Queensland Labor Party and a Tarago?

A. There are still at least 8 seats left in the Tarago.

:lol:

Q. How many elephants can you fit in a Mini?

A. Dunno, but the QLP can fit into the left over spaces ;)

Kevin Bonham
31-03-2012, 08:27 PM
Taking quite a while for the last few seats to be resolved, as is often the case because of postal votes and so on, but a tardy response to incorrect identification of the top two candidates in the seat of Thuringowa hasn't helped.

Anyway from the expected base result of 77-8-2-2 there are still three seats in significant doubt:

* In Thuringowa the LNP is leading the KAP by 320 votes on preferences but there are still about 2600 preferences to be distributed there (postals and prepolls). It's very hard to see those being different enough to overturn a 320 vote margin so it looks like KAP have lost that one and will not get the three seats they need for formal party status within the parliament.

* In Bulimba, Labor, who have been leading, suffered a big blow when a parcel of 50 preferences in its pile was found to consist of a Labor preference on top of 49 LNP preferences. With that 98-vote change in the margin, Labor's lead in Bulimba has been cut to 93, and the lead is expected to shrink further, such that Antony Green's current projection is a tie! (Of course, more likely that would be a win by less than 20 for one side or other than an actual dead-level result).

* In Maryborough, incumbent independent Chris Foley has closed to within 116 votes but doesn't have much left to throw against the LNP who are leading him.

Kevin Bonham
04-04-2012, 10:26 PM
Looks like Labor is losing Bulimba so there won't even be any Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs jokes, since they will only have enough for six dwarfs.

Basil
28-04-2012, 09:05 PM
BAM! (http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/live-coverage-queensland-local-elections-20120428-1xrit.html)

Good ol' Hinchy wants his state secy to resign and for the whole sorry irrelevant shooting match to examine its ties w/ the union movement. He may be slow, but he gets there in the end.

Kevin Bonham
28-04-2012, 09:53 PM
Yeah, hugely lopsided mayoral result, nearly 70-30 to the LNP in a city. Labor's also lost a few council wards - but it looks like they have probably held the South Brisbane by-election, though by no means comfortably.

Tassie has a couple of Legislative Concil elections coming up next weekend and in the one I live in, the seat of Hobart, Labor is very likely to lose one of its two remaining LegCo seats to independent former Hobart Lord Mayor Rob Valentine, who was a centrist on a city council split mostly between Greens and closet Libs. If Valentine hadn't run they might have lost it to the Greens instead. Back about 2000 Labor had six of the fifteen seats and was well on the way to controlling the joint and maybe even getting it reformed so that it was actually a democratic chamber of parliament. Since then they have been losing seats to Libs and indies rapidly and they'll probably be down to one after next Saturday.

Also here some Legislative Councillors are making noises about blocking the state budget over health. The LegCo here can send the Lower House to an election without facing one itself, a farcical situation, although it hasn't happened for several decades.

Capablanca-Fan
28-04-2012, 11:01 PM
Looks like Labor is losing Bulimba so there won't even be any Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs jokes, since they will only have enough for six dwarfs.
At least they could car-pool more comfortably now, in line with their pro-green ideology.

Kevin Bonham
05-05-2012, 09:19 PM
Tassie has a couple of Legislative Concil elections coming up next weekend and in the one I live in, the seat of Hobart, Labor is very likely to lose one of its two remaining LegCo seats to independent former Hobart Lord Mayor Rob Valentine, who was a centrist on a city council split mostly between Greens and closet Libs.

This has occurred.

Kevin Bonham
06-05-2012, 12:16 AM
Indeed, fans of the campaign style of Queensland Labor may be interested to know that the Labor candidate attempted to personally attack Valentine by accusing him of attempting to use the LegCo job as a form of retirement, and also got stuck into him for not having a candidate website (as if the voters of Hobart needed to know more about the guy who'd been their Mayor for thirteen years).

Net result: swing against Labor 24% (5 points caused by redistribution)

(In comparison, the Greens only copped 5 points of punishment from the former Mayor, despite him being an ex-Green from 20 years ago. The Libs did not contest.)

Kevin Bonham
18-05-2012, 11:17 PM
The Tasmanian economy is sufficiently cactus that we are now going into net debt, and probably recession later in the year as well.

There is an interesting by-election coming up in Victoria with the seat of Melbourne being vacated. The Greens have a big chance to win this from Labor. It's unlikely the Liberals will bother contesting.

Kevin Bonham
19-07-2012, 07:59 PM
There is an interesting by-election coming up in Victoria with the seat of Melbourne being vacated. The Greens have a big chance to win this from Labor. It's unlikely the Liberals will bother contesting.

And indeed no Liberal candidate for the by-election on Saturday. The polling picture is somewhat confused for this one, showing clearly that the Greens have a big chance but not clearly that they will win. Amusingly since a loss could be embarrassing for Labor, Labor has released internal polling showing they will lose (so they can say it was to be expected), while the Liberals have released internal polling showing that Labor will win! :D

Anyone in the seat of Melbourne have any thoughts on this?

Kevin Bonham
21-07-2012, 08:40 PM
Cathy Oke (GRN) currently leading and likely to just win. The Sex Party directed its preferences to Labor citing concern about "anti-sex" (mainly anti-prostitution) feminists in the Greens but it appears that Sex Party voters have made up their own minds with a roughly 50-50 split so far.

Kevin Bonham
21-07-2012, 09:39 PM
Now extremely close. Labor may yet just hold this.

Kevin Bonham
22-07-2012, 01:26 AM
Labor wins! 700 ahead, the Greens can't recover from that barring errors.

Capablanca-Fan
22-07-2012, 02:02 AM
Labor wins! 700 ahead, the Greens can't recover from that barring errors.
Good! Of course, I wouldn't normally be cheering Labor, but the Greens are even worse.

Kevin Bonham
22-07-2012, 01:00 PM
The Greens were widely expected to win this one and I think the result could be taken as containing a bit of blowback over their federal asylum seeker policy. I think there is also a fair bit of dissatisfaction with the Baillieu government and under such circumstances voters were less likely to deprive the opposition of a seat. Another factor is that the parliament is finely balanced in that the loss of one seat would cost the Liberals their majority and leave a tied parliament. One Liberal is in hot water and voters may have considered that this was not the time to vote Green in case it destablised the parliament.

Kevin Bonham
23-07-2012, 12:15 AM
Daniel Andrews rubbing it in (deservedly so given Green failure to concede).


I just say to the Greens - if they had spent as much time running a postal vote campaign or doing their election costings as they did organising their election night party, then maybe they would have something to celebrate.

Kevin Bonham
03-08-2012, 08:17 PM
Next cab off the rank is the NT election on Aug 25. Despite a general expectation that the CLP will take government, Sportingbet has them only as narrow favourites (1.65 vs 2.20, and favourites to win in 13 of 25 individual seats.)

pappubahry
03-08-2012, 08:43 PM
I recall the last NT election being one that the bookies got terribly wrong, suggesting that an election prediction market needs some polling data to ground itself in reality.

Kevin Bonham
21-08-2012, 11:49 PM
I recall the last NT election being one that the bookies got terribly wrong, suggesting that an election prediction market needs some polling data to ground itself in reality.

Yes, and there still isn't much with the election on this Saturday. There has been one poll of 4 seats showing about a 6% swing to the CLP on average but swings in the Territory tend to be a mess from seat to seat (and the poll, albeit with its very small sample sizes, is consistent with that.)

Sportingbet's seat markets now show the CLP winning 12 seats (same as now), the tossup being Arafura. 13 seats for the CLP is a common prediction and there have also been some predictions of Labor winning 13 seats, including one by Malcolm Mackerras, whose record on elections that are not no-brainers is probably about as good as a random number generator. Peter Brent is predicting Labor will lose heavily. The Poliquant site (http://poliquant.com/northern-territory-election-is-the-pent-up-swing-about-to-be-released/) has some detailed modelling attempts and considers the CLP well placed.

Kevin Bonham
21-08-2012, 11:58 PM
Classy stuff from the NT campaign trail:

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/country-liberal-party-tv-ad-calls-northern-territory-labor-party-leader-paul-henderson-a-jerk-off/story-fndo2j43-1226454183429

Basil
25-08-2012, 07:48 PM
I'm not sure which is more distressing: that there is a 'Gunner' as candidate for the ALP of that he's contesting the seat of Fannie Bay.

Kevin Bonham
25-08-2012, 08:13 PM
Labor's really struggling. ABC computer has been prematurely calling seats like it always does but the CLP only needs one gain and is currently being modelled ahead in four.

Kevin Bonham
25-08-2012, 08:48 PM
CLP has two gains, they're ahead in a third and lineball in a fourth. One of their own seats isn't totally safe but they'll win with 13-16 seats. Could well be 15-9-1 or 16-8-1.

Kevin Bonham
10-09-2012, 05:42 PM
Could well be 15-9-1 or 16-8-1.

Final NT result was 16-8-1 so another instance of the party in federal power being well and truly booted at state/territory level.

Kevin Bonham
18-09-2012, 06:38 PM
What Campbell Newman's harsh medicine has done for his public approval:

http://twitter.yfrog.com/z/kltgoap

Desmond
18-09-2012, 08:08 PM
What Campbell Newman's harsh medicine has done for his public approval:

http://twitter.yfrog.com/z/kltgoap
I have a lot more respect for him now than I had before. It had to be done.

Kevin Bonham
18-09-2012, 08:27 PM
It's not a bad idea strategically to get it out of the way now. There will be plenty of time to be easy-going and popular in later terms in office.

If he's really lucky he'll improve his future chances by scaring voters off electing a federal Coalition government in the process! Though I do think those who are blaming the current federal narrowing on Newman are very greatly overstating their case.

Goughfather
19-09-2012, 12:24 AM
It's not a bad idea strategically to get it out of the way now. There will be plenty of time to be easy-going and popular in later terms in office.

Indeed. By the time that Labor are electable in Queensland all of this will be ancient history.

Basil
19-09-2012, 08:34 AM
And the books, no doubt, will be balanced, with state debt no longer being paid at an arse-punishing rate of interest. Shortly thereafter, Labor may well indeed be electable and the cycle can continue ...

Capablanca-Fan
19-09-2012, 12:46 PM
I have a lot more respect for him now than I had before. It had to be done.
Sorry for my ignorance but I haven't lived there for 2.5 years. Is it this (http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/hockey-praises-campbells-courage-as-queensland-announces-more-job-cuts-20120907-25ikz.html)?

… the state's Health Minister, Lawrence Springborg, announced 2754 jobs to go from his department, the latest instalment of the purge.
The federal shadow treasurer, Joe Hockey, backed the Queensland government.
''It's pretty reasonable because the Labor Party in Queensland racked up $100 billion of debt,'' he told breakfast television.
''Campbell Newman, all strength to his right arm, he's showing incredible courage to try and fix up a state government that has been in complete chaos, an absolute mess during the term of Labor and Campbell is showing the sort of courage and doing the right thing by the people of Queensland that hopefully gets Queensland back on the rails.''

Desmond
19-09-2012, 12:55 PM
Sorry for my ignorance but I haven't lived there for 2.5 years. Is it this (http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/hockey-praises-campbells-courage-as-queensland-announces-more-job-cuts-20120907-25ikz.html)?

… the state's Health Minister, Lawrence Springborg, announced 2754 jobs to go from his department, the latest instalment of the purge.
The federal shadow treasurer, Joe Hockey, backed the Queensland government.
''It's pretty reasonable because the Labor Party in Queensland racked up $100 billion of debt,'' he told breakfast television.
''Campbell Newman, all strength to his right arm, he's showing incredible courage to try and fix up a state government that has been in complete chaos, an absolute mess during the term of Labor and Campbell is showing the sort of courage and doing the right thing by the people of Queensland that hopefully gets Queensland back on the rails.''
I think the gov't job cuts are of the order of 14,000. At one time it was speculated as high as 20,000. About 9-10% of the public sector.

Desmond
19-09-2012, 01:20 PM
Bird's eye view of the largess that is the QPS here (http://www.psc.qld.gov.au/library/document/catalogue/workforce-statistics/qtly-workforce-profile-mar12.pdf).

Capablanca-Fan
19-09-2012, 02:00 PM
I think the gov't job cuts are of the order of 14,000. At one time it was speculated as high as 20,000. About 9-10% of the public sector.
Sounds good. I share your opinion that it had to be done, and that Newman deserves respect for this. Thanks for that bird's eye view.

Kevin Bonham
19-09-2012, 10:01 PM
38% of NSW voters polled by Galaxy were unable to correctly say who the state's Premier is, including 5% who got it wrong.

Desmond
20-09-2012, 08:38 PM
A topical Clarke and Dawe for you Jono

wNeQN6jxJaY

Capablanca-Fan
21-09-2012, 04:11 AM
A topical Clarke and Dawe for you Jono

wNeQN6jxJaY
Thanks RR; hard to get Aussie stuff here.

Kevin Bonham
22-09-2012, 04:55 PM
Next interesting events are the ACT election Oct 20 and the Sydney by-election Oct 27.

The Sydney by-election is caused by the O'Farrell government's "Get Clover" law preventing people from holding seats in local and state government at the same time (something many people think would be a good thing in my home state where the practice is rampant.)

Labor has decided not to run and Clover Moore has endorsed Alex Greenwich (of Australian Marriage Equality) who is running as an independent.

What is interesting is that Green Senator Sarah Hanson-Young has also endorsed Greenwich via twitter although there is an endorsed Green candidate.

Kevin Bonham
26-09-2012, 12:58 AM
Coalition leads 57-43 in latest SA state Newspoll despite leadership turmoil in Liberal ranks.

Kevin Bonham
18-10-2012, 01:29 AM
A poll for the ACT election this weekend has Labor in a comfortable position, with even majority government not entirely out of the question, though a continuation of the current minority Labor-Green government there looks more likely if the poll is accurate. Chief Minister Katy Gallagher has a massive preferred-chief-minister lead.

Kevin Bonham
19-10-2012, 05:28 PM
The long-inevitable SA leadership spill is finally on next Tuesday with Martin Hamilton-Smith challenging Isobel Redmond. I expect Hamilton-Smith to win assuming no third candidate emerges.

Kevin Bonham
20-10-2012, 07:53 PM
The pre-election poll for the ACT has turned out to be wibble and the Liberals have performed very well while the Greens have been harshly thwacked around the ears. By far the most likely result at present is Labor 7 (-) Liberal 8 (+2) Green 4 (-2).

Basil
20-10-2012, 08:47 PM
... while the Greens have been harshly thwacked around the ears.
As they should, as a matter of course. Perhaps a national event? Or simply legislation allowing the whim, should the urge take.

Kevin Bonham
22-10-2012, 12:37 PM
It could even be 8-8-1; the Greens are getting a sorry thwacking on preferences in Ginninderra and look like they might lose that seat to Labor despite starting "notionally" 0.2 of a quota ahead. Labor picks up preferences on minor candidate shrapnel including Lib leakage then gets a big wad off the Motorist Party, and even if that's not enough for them to win then they have the advantage of a little Hare-Clark trick based around the fact that in Hare-Clark it is candidate totals not party totals that matter.

Adamski
22-10-2012, 11:59 PM
Thanks RR; hard to get Aussie stuff here.
John Clarke is of course another Kiwi who crossed the Tasman. Best known in NZ for his "Fred Dagg".

Kevin Bonham
24-10-2012, 02:30 AM
The long-inevitable SA leadership spill is finally on next Tuesday with Martin Hamilton-Smith challenging Isobel Redmond. I expect Hamilton-Smith to win assuming no third candidate emerges.

Bzzzt! Hamilton-Smith loses by a vote. What a horrible outcome for the SA Libs, they will get more of this nonsense now.

Kevin Bonham
02-11-2012, 05:40 PM
Looks like Rattenbury got pretty much everything from ACT Labor despite having had his colleagues all wiped out. Labor always tends to give the Greens too much in deals.

pax
03-11-2012, 12:05 AM
Looks like Rattenbury got pretty much everything from ACT Labor despite having had his colleagues all wiped out. Labor always tends to give the Greens too much in deals.

Maybe the other guy was willing to sell his arse..

Kevin Bonham
17-11-2012, 09:17 PM
For those interested in the strange world of Tasmanian state politics I have written this:

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/the-compliant-coalitionists-voting.html

"The Compliant Coalitionists: Voting Patterns in the Tasmanian Lower House"

Explores voting patterns in the Tas Lower House especially in the current parliament and argues that in pursuit of stability the Greens have sacrificed the transparency of parliament that they claim to believe in while Labor has diluted its identity.

Kevin Bonham
03-12-2012, 02:21 PM
Queensland LNP struggling to contain the hordes with three members quitting the party - two to become independents and one joining KAP.

This gave KAP its magic three members for official party status so the LNP moved to take it away from them and limit it to parties that had won their three seats at an election.

KAP are not impressed and Bob Katter now threatens to preference Labor!

Kevin Bonham
21-01-2013, 04:27 PM
Former Tasmanian chessplayer Tom Baxter has been endorsed as the Green candidate for the Legislative Council seat of Nelson, which goes to the polls in May.

Nelson includes a mix of green suburbs and old money Lib strongholds with a small area of Lib-leaning bible belt in its far south. Baxter is taking on the incumbent and somewhat conservative independent Jim Wilkinson, who has held the seat comfortably for 18 years. It is unclear yet whether Baxter will be the main challenger or there will be others. If Baxter is the main challenger, Wilkinson's margin over the Greens last time was 62:38. That was against a much worse Greens candidate and at a time when Wilkinson was a less divisive member, but on the other hand (i) the Greens were more popular in 2007 (ii) the seat has been redistributed which has made it easier for Wilkinson to hold. I don't think the Greens can win the seat but if there is a strong independent opponent for Wilkinson then their preferences could give him problems.

Tom is now a university lecturer in corporate governance, a former lawyer (no longer practicing) and a PhD law student writing a thesis on forestry law. Long ago he was my teammate in interschool chess (he played board 1 above me on a highschool team) and in the 1988 Hobart Interclub winning all-junior team. He won the 1989 U16 state champs with a 100% score.

He hasn't played much since school but made a cameo return in the 1995 Tasmanian Championships in which he tied for second. He was due to play the defending champion in the final round but the defending champion spat the dummy because he was no longer in contention and forfeited the game.

Mephistopheles
22-01-2013, 10:19 PM
Thrashed him in every single tournament game in which I played him, despite a spotty record against him when we were at school.

My memory is of a very likeable character; articulate and engaged. Despite my non-fandom of the Greens, I would hope that he can at least displace the Tory.

Kevin Bonham
22-01-2013, 10:52 PM
Thrashed him in every single tournament game in which I played him, despite a spotty record against him when we were at school.

Can't say the same for myself; we were very closely matched in intra-school comps but in the rated games we played (all during 1987-8) I managed only +1=1-4.

Rincewind
31-01-2013, 12:09 PM
In other news Isobel Redmond has finally quit the leadership.

Capablanca-Fan
09-02-2013, 04:14 PM
Labor smashing Greens in WA. Meanwhile, the Barnett Government …. (http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/labor_smashing_greens_in_wa_meanwhile_the_barnett_ government/)
Andrew Bolt, 9 Feb 2013

Normally a jump that big would suggest you’re romping it in:

THE West Australian opposition has started the election campaign with a five-percentage-point boost in its primary vote...

But we are talking Labor:

While Labor has made inroads on primary support, most of it has come at the expense of the Greens and “others”, leaving the Liberal-Nationals government with a commanding lead on preferences, 57 per cent to 43 per cent.

Kevin Bonham
09-02-2013, 04:19 PM
The WA Opposition Leader Mark McGowan is polling especially well but it makes little difference because voters just don't want a Labor government right now. It might moderate the result slightly but I expect Barnett to win easily.

Note also that that 5-point jump is comparing a current poll with a three-month rolling average. It is not the same as a jump that sharp over a month or a fortnight.

SA Liberals appear to have done the right thing by going to a new option rather than recycling any of their ex-duds.

Rincewind
06-03-2013, 11:17 PM
Did something happen in Victorian parliament today?

Kevin Bonham
07-03-2013, 02:21 PM
The role of Shaw in this is fascinating. He's a homophobic nutcase with a very colourful track record, but the government will need his support after May to survive if Labor wins back its vacant seat at a by-election (highly likely.)

It will be interesting to see if Shaw rejoins the party now that Baillieu is gone.

William AS
07-03-2013, 03:28 PM
The role of Shaw in this is fascinating. He's a homophobic nutcase with a very colourful track record, but the government will need his support after May to survive if Labor wins back its vacant seat at a by-election (highly likely.)

It will be interesting to see if Shaw rejoins the party now that Baillieu is gone.
It will be interesting to see if they are foolish enough to allow Shaw to rejoin the party. :rolleyes: :uhoh:

Rincewind
07-03-2013, 03:46 PM
From high drama to high farce, in SA parliament recently two young kangaroos was let loose by tourism minister, Leon Bignell. Appropriately one was picked up by Chloe Fox.

William AS
07-03-2013, 09:50 PM
From high drama to high farce, in SA parliament recently two young kangaroos was let loose by tourism minister, Leon Bignell. Appropriately one was picked up by Chloe Fox.
Maybe he wanted to introduce some intelligent life to the floor of the Parliament. :uhoh: ;) :lol:

Kevin Bonham
09-03-2013, 11:14 AM
WA election is today. I'll be a bit busy with chess to pay much attention but the final Newspoll showed the government with a 59.5:40.5 lead and the bookies paid out yesterday.

Kevin Bonham
19-04-2013, 11:41 PM
Queensland crossbench continues to grow with Scott Driscoll out of the LNP; his exit lines included:


‘‘We’ve been fed lines about some sort of secret ‘‘bat cave’’ type set up apparently operating in a sectret wall cavity in my Redcliffe office with massive rivers of gold and diamonds basically flowing through to companies my family is linked to,’’ [..]

‘‘And I supposedly sit their [sic] like Dr Evil and get confused between how many millions, billions and trillions are being made while stroking some hairless cat.’’


Driscoll is the fourth to leave the LNP since the election with three becoming independents and one joining KAP. The crossbench is now larger than the Opposition!

Desmond
20-04-2013, 07:54 AM
Queensland crossbench continues to grow with Scott Driscoll out of the LNP; his exit lines included:



Driscoll is the fourth to leave the LNP since the election with three becoming independents and one joining KAP. The crossbench is now larger than the Opposition!
Driscoll is a real piece of work. I wouldn't be surprised if he faces criminal charges.

Kevin Bonham
24-04-2013, 10:27 PM
Liberal Party here has been trying to employ legal thuggery against a minor Legislative Council candidate over his use of the term "Independent liberal" and a colour that they claim to be called "Liberal Blue". He's an ex-party member of a broadly small-l liberal/libertarian persuasion.

My article on this episode is here:

What is an independent liberal? (http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/what-is-independent-liberal.html)

antichrist
25-04-2013, 10:52 AM
I see there is a South Hobart branch of Friends of the Earth, I will shout your membership fees

Kevin Bonham
25-04-2013, 01:35 PM
Is there actually a branch here or is it just that some of their staff are based here? There are so many green groups in Tasmania it's easy not to notice them all.

Oepty
29-04-2013, 10:38 PM
I think the SA Labor Party has managed to make itself so much of a joke that even the incompetence of the SA Liberal Party can not cost it victory at the next state election. However they managed to lose last time.

Kevin Bonham
29-04-2013, 11:04 PM
I think the SA Labor Party has managed to make itself so much of a joke that even the incompetence of the SA Liberal Party can not cost it victory at the next state election. However they managed to lose last time.

I think SA Libs have made a good leadership change to put all the past nonsense behind them and move on behind a new face. Not sure how good he is yet, usually takes a while to tell with new opposition leaders.

It will be very difficult for Labor to win again but I'm not yet writing them off completely. They are still vaguely competitive in polling.

Oepty
29-04-2013, 11:26 PM
I think SA Libs have made a good leadership change to put all the past nonsense behind them and move on behind a new face. Not sure how good he is yet, usually takes a while to tell with new opposition leaders.

It will be very difficult for Labor to win again but I'm not yet writing them off completely. They are still vaguely competitive in polling.

The problems for the Liberal Party may not come from the leader, they might come from the deputy leader. Vickie Chapman is nothing but trouble. She brings nothing but unrealistic leadership aspirations and a stupidity that means she will not shut up about it even a few days before an election.

Rincewind
04-05-2013, 02:36 AM
Nationals preselect Gary "Angry" Anderson for Throsby currently held by Stephen Jones (ALP).

Sir Cromulent Sparkles
04-05-2013, 03:37 AM
Nationals preselect Gary "Angry" Anderson for Throsby currently held by Stephen Jones (ALP).

was jimmy barnes unavailable ?

Kevin Bonham
04-05-2013, 11:43 PM
Legislative Council elections here tonight in Tas saw the Liberals win the farm. Incumbent Liberal Dr Vanessa Goodwin (Pembroke, Hobart eastern shore) got an outright majority while hardliner Leonie Hiscutt (Montgomery, NW coast) got 45.6% and will win on preferences. (She needs 18% of preferences from two candidates but I've heard she's getting 50% from one of them.)

Notionally independent Jim Wilkinson (Nelson, Hobart southern suburbs) got 49% and will win on preferences. Wilkinson was endorsed by state Opposition Leader Will Hodgman on Twitter and it was quite obvious through the campaign that the Liberals wanted him elected, as well they should since he nearly always votes with them.

My live comments feed had 2000 hits in three hours.

Kevin Bonham
23-05-2013, 11:37 PM
In the Tasmanian House of Assembly today the Liberals moved a no-confidence motion in Nick McKim, the Greens leader who is Corrections Minister (among other things) in the Labor-Green Coalition government.

The motion was defeated, but remarkably, Labor backbencher Brenton Best crossed the floor to vote for it. Best is notorious for being a bit of a liability and sometimes considered a bit thick. He's believed to be peeved about the Greens getting Cabinet ministries because it meant he missed out (again). In any case it looks like he will get away with it because the party's vote on the no-confidence motion was not a caucused position.

Crossing the floor among Liberals and Greens is much commoner; Labor MPs who cross against a caucused party position are normally chucked out of the parliamentary party. The last one who did it here was.

Desmond
31-05-2013, 07:13 PM
Driscoll is a real piece of work. I wouldn't be surprised if he faces criminal charges.
Redcliffe MP Scott Driscoll made $50,000 donation to LNP less than month after 'suspicious' payment to family company (http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/redcliffe-mp-scott-driscoll-made-50000-donation-to-lnp-less-than-month-after-suspicious-payment-to-family-company/story-e6freoof-1226654095998)


PREMIER Campbell Newman will write to the Parliamentary Ethics Committee asking it to recommence its probe of outcast MP Scott Driscoll.

It follows a series of findings by Queensland Industrial Relations Commission Deputy President Adrian Bloomfield in today's Courier-Mail.

Mr Newman released a statement this afternoon saying he had asked for a suspended Ethics Committee investigation into Mr Driscoll to be resumed without delay.

The Ethics Committee had put its investigation of a range of allegations, including the misuse by Mr Driscoll of his electorate office, on hold pending the outcome of a probe by the Crime and Misconduct Commission into allegations of fraud and misconduct.
...
Earlier, The Courier-Mail reported that the Liberal National Party has attempted to distance itself from a "suspicious" $50,000 payment made to the LNP by outcast MP for Redcliffe Scott Driscoll.

Mr Driscoll paid a $49,862 "candidate contribution" into the LNP's Redcliffe State Electorate Council bank account on November 15, 2011, according to the LNP's disclosure return to the Electoral Commission of Queensland.

Queensland Industrial Relations Commission Deputy President Adrian Bloomfield yesterday said the contribution was made just weeks after the Queensland Retail Traders and Shopkeepers Association, with the help of proxies held by Mr Driscoll, made the "extraordinary decision" to make an unauthorised payment of $60,000 to his family company.

Mr Bloomfield said he would leave it to other authorities to investigate where Mr Driscoll's $49,000 contribution to the LNP came from, but it "does raise certain suspicions."
...

Desmond
10-07-2013, 04:38 PM
Amid all the hoo-ha about Qld pollies pay rises, I've not heard whether it means their retirement allowance will increase as a result?

antichrist
14-07-2013, 11:23 PM
In the Tasmanian House of Assembly today the Liberals moved a no-confidence motion in Nick McKim, the Greens leader who is Corrections Minister (among other things) in the Labor-Green Coalition government.

The motion was defeated, but remarkably, Labor backbencher Brenton Best crossed the floor to vote for it. Best is notorious for being a bit of a liability and sometimes considered a bit thick. He's believed to be peeved about the Greens getting Cabinet ministries because it meant he missed out (again). In any case it looks like he will get away with it because the party's vote on the no-confidence motion was not a caucused position.

Crossing the floor among Liberals and Greens is much commoner; Labor MPs who cross against a caucused party position are normally chucked out of the parliamentary party. The last one who did it here was.


if they crossed the floor on an issue you support would you support them, and if you opposed the motion would you deny them support?

Kevin Bonham
14-07-2013, 11:37 PM
if they crossed the floor on an issue you support would you support them, and if you opposed the motion would you deny them support?

This sounds like just silly ambit trolling.

In this case I don't have any stake in it since I don't support any of the three parties in the Tasmanian parliament. But I do think that if you have a formal coalition government, then to have a backbencher from one of the governing parties voting for a no-confidence motion in a minister is not appropriate.

antichrist
14-07-2013, 11:47 PM
This sounds like just silly ambit trolling.

In this case I don't have any stake in it since I don't support any of the three parties in the Tasmanian parliament. But I do think that if you have a formal coalition government, then to have a backbencher from one of the governing parties voting for a no-confidence motion in a minister is not appropriate.

but if the minister was a corrupt figure you would support government unity over propriety? that's what happened to the ALP in NSW and look where they ended up.

In the scenario I mentioned above I was thinking of one of your favourite soft spots being at stake

We all have our inconsistencies and hypocracies(?)

Kevin Bonham
15-07-2013, 01:09 AM
but if the minister was a corrupt figure you would support government unity over propriety?

No; if the minister is corrupt the government should unify in sacking the minister. But this was not about anything to do with alleged corruption. It was about allegedly misleading parliament but most of the speech by the Labor rebel who supported the no-confidence motion was unrelated to the actual pretext.


In the scenario I mentioned above I was thinking of one of your favourite soft spots being at stake

We all have our inconsistencies and hypocracies(?)

Don't project your own inadequacies on to me.

Of course, there are some personal liberty issues on which I'd applaud anyone who crossed the floor to vote in favour, and oppose anyone who crossed the floor to vote against. But I would also support a party that took a binding view in favour of such policies and oppose a party that took a binding view against, so the issue there is the policy and not whether the vote for/against is crossing the floor or not.

I don't have a general view that someone's stance on a policy issue is right or wrong solely because they cross the floor. I see that as a matter for the parties.

Kevin Bonham
29-09-2013, 12:13 PM
I've been involved for almost a year in debates about proposed changes to the Tasmanian Anti-Discrimination Act. I opposed certain aspects of the proposed changes very strongly because they would make it illegal to offend, insult, ridicule, intimidate or humiliate a person on the grounds of a wide range of proposed attributes including political or religious belief or orientation. (I had no problem with making intimidation on these grounds illegal but making it illegal to offend someone on the grounds of their political or religious views was in my view a severe and unjustifiable threat to free speech about political and religious issues.)

The final resolution - which I think was excellent - was that several of the proposed attributes, including all those I complained about, were omitted from the list of protected attributes. Furthermore a good-faith exemption (reporting and public acts done in good faith, similar to defamation law exemptions) was added for all attributes.

It is now illegal in Tasmania to offend, ridicule, insult, humiliate or intimidate someone on the basis of:


(a) race;
(b) age;
(c) sexual orientation;
(d) lawful sexual activity;
(e) gender;
(ea) gender identity;
(eb) intersex;
(f) marital status;
(fa) relationship status;
(g) pregnancy;
(h) breastfeeding;
(i) parental status;
(j) family responsibilities;
(k) disability;

unless in the course of:


(a) a fair report of a public act; or
(b) a communication or dissemination of a matter that is subject to a defence of absolute privilege in proceedings for defamation; or
(c) a public act done in good faith for –

(i) academic, artistic, scientific or research purposes; or
(ii) any purpose in the public interest.

My submissions arguing successfully against the proposed inclusion of political or religious opinions in the list of protected attributes were cited once in the House of Assembly and twice in the Legislative Council.

Capablanca-Fan
30-09-2013, 05:07 AM
How absurdly precious of the Tassies. Now there is a new right not to be offended that trumps free speech. It's also asymmetric: people in the protected groups can insult those in the unprotected groups with impunity, but if the latter retaliate, they are guilty of causing offense. This is as moronic and discriminatory as the Orwellian "hate crimes" laws. Sowell wrote about this sort of nonsense back in 1998 just after the Shepard murder (http://www.jewishworldreview.com/cols/sowell102098.asp):


Unfortunately, the rhetoric of victimhood has been used repeatedly over the past few decades to claim special privileges -- and not just by homosexuals. The time is long overdue for everyone to wake up and not let this game go on forever -- or until it has us all at each others' throats.

Special privileges are poisonous to a whole society. Often those who claim these privileges become victims of the backlash.

Even when the privileges are not put into the law but consist only of special indulgences for rotten behavior that would not be tolerated by other members of the society, this too is poisonous in itself, as well as breeding inevitable backlashes.

Many of those who are loudest in their demands for "gay rights" and in breast-beating over their "identity" show the least respect for other people's rights and even go out of their way to insult Catholics or others who do not share their lifestyle.

Kevin Bonham
30-09-2013, 12:01 PM
How absurdly precious of the Tassies. Now there is a new right not to be offended that trumps free speech.

Actually it already existed for some of the attributes listed:

(e) gender;
(f) marital status;
(fa) relationship status;
(g) pregnancy;
(h) breastfeeding;
(i) parental status;
(j) family responsibilities;

and previously it was not subject to any public interest/fair report of a public act exemption.

Capablanca-Fan
10-10-2013, 02:52 PM
Strong Political Will Needed For Cheaper Housing (http://ipa.org.au/news/2971/strong-political-will-needed-for-cheaper-housing)
Alan Moran
Herald Sun, 4 October 2013

Over the past year Melbourne house prices have edged up by over 5 per cent. This followed rapid price increases in the two decades to 2009 and stable prices over the following three years.

For most products higher prices do indeed bring an increase in supply but this does not hold for housing. That's because the key price driver for housing is land availability. And state governments strictly limit the amount of land that might be used for housing around all major Australian cities. So, interest rate reductions improve housing affordability but the resulting higher prices bring a negligible effect on supply.

We see this in Victoria over the past year, when higher prices actually saw new housing starts down 10 per cent.

The Government induced scarcity of land explains this. An average newly developed housing block around Melbourne (with roads, water, sewerage etc) costs $211,000, a ninefold increase since 1985. Without government restrictions on city edge land use, that block would cost under $100,000. Regulatory-driven scarcity adds $100,000 to $150,000 to costs which the new homeowner must bear.

There is an abundance of developable land on the edge of Melbourne, as with all Australian cities. Freeing up the regulatory bans on development would see new house-land package costs fall by a quarter.

But the Minister, Matthew Guy, takes his advice from an unholy alliance. One part comprises property speculators who have approval for their own lots to be developed and don't want to see competition undermining the prices they expect. In support are greenish busybody "experts" and agitators who want to confine new home building to within existing built-up areas, seldom drawing attention to the fact that less than one per cent of Victoria is urbanised.

The outcome is a squeeze on land availability and an ugly impost on those younger and poorer Victorians who have not got a foot on the housing ladder.

Capablanca-Fan
19-10-2013, 12:59 AM
The German autobahns have no speed limits but no higher accident rate than other highways with absurd nanny-state speed limits.

Free to speed (http://freedomwatch.ipa.org.au/free-to-speed/)
by Vivienne Crompton on 16 October 2013 in Nanny State


Congratulations to the Northern Territory for removing speed limits! As expected, not every one is happy: Nanny Statists are now screaming for the NT government to cancel the removal of speed limits. The NT has set up a trial 200 kilometre stretch of the Stuart Highway to have no set speed. This freeway is famous for its straight length of bitumen slicing through the desert, with often nary another soul to be seen.

It is easy for police to set up speed cameras and simply program them to click away, and it’s an easy revenue raiser for spending-addicted governments. It takes more time, effort and resources to actually police the roads and apprehend genuinely dangerous drivers.

Kevin Bonham
19-10-2013, 08:47 PM
Ouch. Libs lose Miranda by-election in NSW with 27% swing. Bit of bushfire politics in the mix among other factors.

Kevin Bonham
19-10-2013, 11:41 PM
Wasn't just the fires either, or even mainly the fires. Prepolls swung 24% to ALP! Interesting ...

Kevin Bonham
14-11-2013, 12:34 PM
Vic Parliament has been suspended for two weeks because the decidedly partisan Speaker, Ken Smith, has run into Geoff Shaw trouble. Shaw announced that Smith no longer had his confidence. Labor then tested the Speaker, trying to goad him into naming one of their members (which would then result in him losing a vote and probably resigning) but Smith avoided this fate by repeatedly suspending the sitting. However if Shaw's position persists then Smith will be unable to control the parliament and the government will not be able to pass legislation until he is replaced. Very difficult times for the government as if an early election is called they will probably lose.

Kevin Bonham
19-11-2013, 11:07 PM
Scott Driscoll has left the building shortly after it was recommended he be expelled from parliament and fined $90,000. By-election coming up for Redcliffe (LNP, 10.1%).

Desmond
20-11-2013, 06:48 AM
Scott Driscoll has left the building shortly after it was recommended he be expelled from parliament and fined $90,000. By-election coming up for Redcliffe (LNP, 10.1%).

about time

Kevin Bonham
26-11-2013, 04:04 PM
Victorian Parliament somehow managed to escape from gridlock caused by the Speaker possibly lacking the confidence of the House when Geoff Shaw was out of the chamber (either deliberately or distracted, not clear yet) and a motion was moved to name Jacinta Allan and suspend her for 6 days. The vote was 42-42 and the Speaker used his casting vote in favour, and then they kicked out James Merlino as well, so the government has a temporary majority on the floor.

Prior to that Labor were openly insulting the Speaker to goad him into naming them to bring on a vote that he might lose, and he was responding by suspending the sitting.

Desmond
02-12-2013, 08:20 PM
Scott Driscoll has left the building shortly after it was recommended he be expelled from parliament and fined $90,000. By-election coming up for Redcliffe (LNP, 10.1%).

Defeated federal Petrie MP Yvette D'ath to stand in the by-election. I reckon she might win it too.

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/yvette-dath--wins-labor-preselection-for-state-seat-of-redcliffe-20131202-2ylu4.html

Kevin Bonham
02-12-2013, 08:36 PM
Defeated federal Petrie MP Yvette D'ath to stand in the by-election. I reckon she might win it too.

I would think so. It will be pretty disappointing for Labor's prospects next election if they can't win a by-election needing 10%, given how badly they were thumped at the election that that 10% would be a swing from.

Kevin Bonham
03-12-2013, 08:52 PM
More fun times in Victorian politics ahead: Geoff Shaw cleared of all charges. Parliamentary processes can still be used against him but the government needs a by-election like a hole in the head. He's now an innocent and very powerful man. (Also stridently anti-abortion so I don't regard the current power balance as a good situation at all, but others here may well be cheering.)

ER
21-12-2013, 07:06 AM
Meanwhile in Sydney (or Abdlula does it again)!

http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=936024&cid=BP_RSS_TOPSTORIES_3_Extaxidriverchargedoversie ge_201213

Capablanca-Fan
14-01-2014, 02:44 PM
GM stance costs us all (http://www.theland.com.au/blogs/agribuzz-with-david-leyonhjelm/gm-stance-costs-us-all/2684058.aspx?storypage=0)
Posted By: DAVID LEYONHJELM on 13/01/2014

TASMANIA is a pleasant place to live, but from an economic perspective it is a basket case. Take away the subsidies paid by the rest of Australia and living standards would plummet.
Most of the reason for this can be laid at the feet of Tasmanians and the governments they elect. They consistently block projects that would generate jobs and prosperity while fantasising about non-existent opportunities in small business and eco-tourism. A full third of the state is totally off limits to development, notwithstanding vast forestry resources and potential minerals (which can’t even be explored).

Tasmania is also the home of Australia’s Greens. Bob Brown, originally a State member of parliament, made his name leading the campaign to prevent the damming of the Franklin River in the late 80s. He succeeded, and now the hydroelectricity system cannot meet Tasmania’s needs. Electricity generated by burning brown coal is imported from Victoria.

The latest indication of Tasmania’s fantasy can be seen in its decision to indefinitely extend the moratorium on the cultivation of genetically modified (GM) crops. This was said to be based on its clean, green and GM-free image, the same claim made when South Australia extended its moratorium a few weeks ago.

It’s time Tasmania received some tough love.

Just as a parent would do with a child that refuses to take responsibility for its behaviour, the rest of Australia needs to stop pandering to its expensive fantasies.

A good start would be to base GST payments to the states on their population. That would put them all on the same financial footing and overcome any nonsense about being special. Tasmania might be a pleasant place, but so are many other parts of Australia.

Kevin Bonham
14-01-2014, 02:57 PM
Leyonhjelm is copping a lot of complaints from the left down here about that article! Example, a response from Greens Senator Whish-Wilson here: http://peter-whish-wilson.greensmps.org.au/content/media-releases/nsw-senator-elect-leyonhjelms-radical-views-raises-alarm-tasmanias-future-n-0

I would assume Leyonhjelm would actually support reducing the minimum wage everywhere if not abolishing it altogether.

I think Leyonhjelm has his facts wrong about the area of the state off-limits to mining. The World Heritage Area is about a fifth of the state. The difference between that and the third that is off limits to logging includes a number of non-WHA national parks, state reserves, forest reserves etc. Mineral exploration is permitted in these in theory, though it would probably cause protests in reality.

Kevin Bonham
15-01-2014, 03:29 AM
My 2014 Tasmanian State Election guide:

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/2014-tasmanian-state-election-candidate.html

Kevin Bonham
16-01-2014, 11:42 AM
Tas Greens ministers have been thrown out of Cabinet as Labor prepares to artificially dissolve the power-sharing deal with the Greens in preparation for the election. Announcement of the date is expected later today.

Kevin Bonham
28-01-2014, 07:17 PM
I'm continually updating the guide above. With the Greens now kicked out of Cabinet and the governing agreement dissolved, the Tasmanian ALP government today relied on protection from the Liberals to avoid Green attempts to move no-confidence motions. The Greens wanted to move no-confidence over the government's legislation to remove legal doubts around the proposed Tamar Valley pulp mill (eg by deeming that a permit hasn't expired in the middle of a court case that would otherwise find that it had). The Liberals would be seen as anti-development if they did not support this legislation so they are refusing to bring the government down. After all it goes to the polls in a month and a half anyway.

Kevin Bonham
30-01-2014, 02:58 PM
One PUP candidate is such a classic I've written a whole article about him:

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/the-strange-world-of-pups-mark-grewar.html

Oddly, he's a Christadelphian.

Kevin Bonham
02-03-2014, 02:37 PM
Me on South Australian state election:

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/03/that-other-state-election-sa-march-15.html

Mostly general stuff that includes why the ABC's projection of a 54-46 poll as a hung parliament is wrong, and why I think the SA "fairness clause" for redistributions is silly.

Sir Cromulent Sparkles
03-03-2014, 04:37 AM
Grewar sounds like a fun guy. :confused:

I wonder if Steven Fielding is his role model.

Capablanca-Fan
11-03-2014, 12:13 PM
Greens’ industrial devolution: saving the planet by destroying livelihoods (http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/greens-industrial-devolution-saving-the-planet-by-destroying-livelihoods/story-fni0cwl5-1226850667270)
PETER COSTELLO THE DAILY TELEGRAPH MARCH 11, 2014


If you want to see what a place looks like after years of these [Greenstapo] policies it would be worth a visit to Tasmania. Tasmania produces the cleanest energy in the country from its hydro-electric schemes. Since hydro works off water which has to be collected in dams (another Green no-no) there isn’t that much of it and it’s pretty expensive. This means Tasmania has de-industrialised. You won’t find car workers in Tasmania. But it is a clean green state. Per head of population Tasmania generates much less “carbon pollution” than New South Wales or Victoria.

Tasmania also has the highest unemployment of any Australian state. The trouble with all those eco-jobs is that there are not many of them. Green jobs are mostly jobs paid out of other people’s taxes. Unemployment would be much higher still if Tasmania hadn’t perfected the art of extracting financial subsidies from the rest of us. Tasmania sends 12 senators to the Commonwealth parliament — the same as every other state. But since the population of Tasmania is so much smaller, a Tasmanian senator needs about one fifteenth of the votes a New South Wales senator needs to get elected.

A very small group of Tasmanian voters has been sending Greens like Bob Brown and Christine Milne to Canberra for decades with the aim of doing to the whole country what they have done to their own state — to deindustrialise it.

However there is one big difference. No matter how much damage Tasmania does to itself it will always be able to call on federal subsidies to cushion the blow. It has political clout beyond its numbers embedded in the Australian Constitution. It gets back a much larger share of the GST pie than it pays in. It gets make-work schemes and call-centres and subsidised roads out of national taxes.

Desmond
11-03-2014, 03:46 PM
So when it's the other side doing it it's "extracting financial subsidies from the rest of us", but when it's his own side it's "raising revenue". Right.

Capablanca-Fan
15-03-2014, 12:39 AM
So when it's the other side doing it it's "extracting financial subsidies from the rest of us", but when it's his own side it's "raising revenue". Right.
What are you on about now? Revenue has its place when it concerns the proper function of government, which benefit everyone, e.g. police, military, courts. When revenue is taken from one group and given to politically favoured group, e.g. non-Tasmanians to Tasmanians to subsidize their own stupid policies, this is an improper use.

Desmond
15-03-2014, 06:30 AM
What are you on about now? Revenue has its place when it concerns the proper function of government, which benefit everyone, e.g. police, military, courts. When revenue is taken from one group and given to politically favoured group, e.g. non-Tasmanians to Tasmanians to subsidize their own stupid policies, this is an improper use.I was commenting on Costello's turn of phrase, "extracting" vs "raising", when it suited his argument to paint the same mechanism in a different light.

Patrick Byrom
15-03-2014, 01:28 PM
What are you on about now? Revenue has its place when it concerns the proper function of government, which benefit everyone, e.g. police, military, courts. When revenue is taken from one group and given to politically favoured group, e.g. non-Tasmanians to Tasmanians to subsidize their own stupid policies, this is an improper use.
If Abbott wants to save money, he could start by removing the federal subsidies to the heavily-subsidised Tasmanian forest industry (http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/08/21/tasmanias-forestry-sector-akin-to-work-for-the-dole/):

"Forestry Tasmania, which is at the centre of the negotiations in Tasmania, is a case in point. Its financial performance can be summarised with four facts:
•In the last six years it has received $100 million in subsidies from the federal government
•In the last four years it has lost an average of $100 million per year
•It has an unfunded superannuation liability of well over $100 million
•The Tasmanian government has recently promised to prop it up with an additional $100 million subsidy."

Kevin Bonham
15-03-2014, 03:51 PM
I'll be live-blogging the Tasmanian state election tonight from 6 pm - 11 pm at www.themercury.com.au

This is likely to be interactive. Last time someone asked me questions about chess games.

Patrick Byrom
15-03-2014, 09:26 PM
I'll be live-blogging the Tasmanian state election tonight from 6 pm - 11 pm at www.themercury.com.au
This is likely to be interactive. Last time someone asked me questions about chess games.
But it's already all over in Tasmania, with a crushing Coalition victory - so I predict we will hear no more from them about states receiving GST revenue on a per capita basis :D

However in SA Labour could still retain minority government.

Kevin Bonham
16-03-2014, 01:10 AM
Really a crushing Liberal victory; the Nats down here are non-existent. (A rogue branch of the federal Nationals formed and ran as Tasmanian Nationals. They were kicked out by the federal party and performed appallingly.)

SA is amazing. Major-league fail by the Liberals if Labor stumbles on. But it was something that was possible based on polling.

Capablanca-Fan
16-03-2014, 09:08 AM
If Abbott wants to save money, he could start by removing the federal subsidies to the heavily-subsidised Tasmanian forest industry (http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/08/21/tasmanias-forestry-sector-akin-to-work-for-the-dole/):
No argument from me. While we are at it, let's abolish all subsidies.


But it's already all over in Tasmania, with a crushing Coalition victory …
Tassies have finally come to their senses after being tyrannized by the Marxist/Ecofascist Labor/Green coalition that has ruined their state. What took them so long? The country threw out KRudd/Gillardova in half the time.

Will Hodgman’s crushing win ends Labor’s 16-year rule in Tasmania (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/will-hodgmans-crushing-win-ends-labors-16year-rule-in-tasmania/story-e6frgczx-1226855670566)
MATTHEW DENHOLM AND RICK MORTON THE AUSTRALIAN MARCH 16, 2014


TASMANIA has elected a majority Liberal government, ending 16 years of Labor rule.

The Liberals led by Will Hodgman have won at least 14 seats in the 25-member Assembly, taking government for the first time since losing the 1998 state election.

He rebuffed calls by Ms Giddings and Greens leader Nick McKim to not “tear up” the state’s forest peace deal, saying the Liberals had a mandate to make greater use of the state’s resources.

With 75 per cent of the vote counted in most electorates, voters ended four years of minority Labor-Greens government with a statewide swing of about 13 per cent to the Liberals.

Tasmanians turned on Labor and the Greens, who shared power for four years until January this year, with a statewide vote for the Liberals of about 52 per cent, compared to about 27 per cent for Labor and about 13 pr cent for the Greens.

Rincewind
16-03-2014, 10:28 AM
The outlook is not so rosy for the coalition in SA with lots of votes still to be counted the projection is for a hung parliament with 2 independents.

Capablanca-Fan
16-03-2014, 12:09 PM
The outlook is not so rosy for the coalition in SA with lots of votes still to be counted the projection is for a hung parliament with 2 independents.
Hope they do better than those two scumbags who kept Comrade Gillardova in power.

Rincewind
16-03-2014, 12:34 PM
Hope they do better than those two scumbags who kept Comrade Gillardova in power.

Not sure how good the projection from the ABC election site is but there are predicting ALP 20 Lib 19 with the two independents Bob Such and Geoff Brock. Neither independent has played their hand as yet and there is even a small chance that the ALP (or a smaller chance that the Libs?) may get the number for a narrow majority.

Kevin Bonham
16-03-2014, 02:06 PM
Tassies have finally come to their senses after being tyrannized by the Marxist/Ecofascist Labor/Green coalition that has ruined their state. What took them so long? The country threw out KRudd/Gillardova in half the time.

Labor were only in coalition with the Greens here for the final of their four terms.

Voters here are more interested in majority government than who holds it. At the 2002 election the Liberals here were a total joke. Labor was the free market pro-development party and the Liberals were pushing stupid policies like keeping supermarkets shut on weekends to "protect" small business. They were crushed at that election and hadn't really learned the lessons by the next one. It was only in the 2006-10 term that Labor started to seriously unravel with corruption issues and many resignations, and even so the Liberals were coming back from a very low base. So we had a hung parliament that year, and now for the third time it has turned out that whoever goes into government with the Greens loses next time.

Garvinator
16-03-2014, 03:52 PM
So we had a hung parliament that year, and now for the third time it has turned out that whoever goes into government with the Greens loses next time.Are you talking about just in Tasmania, or for the whole of Australia?

Kevin Bonham
16-03-2014, 07:17 PM
Are you talking about just in Tasmania, or for the whole of Australia?

That's just for Tasmania. It's also happened once federally but the idea that it happens inevitably is false. The ACT Labor-Green government was re-elected albeit with the loss of most of its Greens.

Capablanca-Fan
17-03-2014, 04:08 AM
Labor were only in coalition with the Greens here for the final of their four terms.

Voters here are more interested in majority government than who holds it. At the 2002 election the Liberals here were a total joke. Labor was the free market pro-development party and the Liberals were pushing stupid policies like keeping supermarkets shut on weekends to "protect" small business. They were crushed at that election and hadn't really learned the lessons by the next one. It was only in the 2006-10 term that Labor started to seriously unravel with corruption issues and many resignations, and even so the Liberals were coming back from a very low base.
That's unexpected: the Libs being idiotically socialist and Labor being free-market. Yet the Labor government eventually allied with the Greens and copied the Liberal's leftist policies that they had previously not learned from.

Kevin Bonham
17-03-2014, 10:04 AM
That's unexpected: the Libs being idiotically socialist and Labor being free-market. Yet the Labor government eventually allied with the Greens and copied the Liberal's leftist policies that they had previously not learned from.

Not exactly. The Liberals circa 2002 weren't being lefties, they were being old-fashioned conservatives sceptical of the free market (and also to some degree buying into religious opposition to large stores opening on Sundays). They were opposing partly out of mindless conservatism but also partly because Labor was going one way so they thought they had to oppose it. As it turned out no-one wanted that position.

Labor and the Greens in minority government have made no attempt to roll back Labor's changes to shop trading hours or anything else that dragged the state into the 20th century. But obviously the former Labor government's strong support for the forest industry was not seen by Labor in minority and dependent on Green support. Of course there is the argument that the economics of the industry had changed irrevocably due to the high dollar, increasing competition, and increasing market demand for certification and "social licence". Nonetheless a majority government may well have handled it differently and the incoming one probably will. (I don't think they will have a lot of luck getting areas rescinded from the World Heritage Area though!)

Rincewind
17-03-2014, 12:28 PM
There is a some legs on a story from the SA state election on an ALP pamphlet which was targeted at Liberal candidate for Elder, Carolyn Habib. The pamphlet referred to the candidate almost exclusively by her surname and critics have said that was an overtly racist tactic. However opinions are divided.

Carolyn Habib, George Brandis both criticised the pamphlet as racist and now ALP federal member from western Sydney, Ed Husic has said that he thinks the pamphlet focused on background and was a bad pamphlet (although I don't know if he used the r-word in his comments to the press).

Contrarily, Cory Bernardi is saying he can't see how using a candidate's surname is racist. Surprisingly Cory is making a lot of sense to me.

As it turned out the ALP got a 0.4% swing in the seat of Elder and so have retained with a slightly improved majority after preferences (-0.7% swing before preferences). It's not clear that the pamphlet had much of an effect. This is the seat Pat Conlon is retiring from and so a small swing away from the ALP primary vote is not evidence of any particular animus in the electorate.

Capablanca-Fan
17-03-2014, 12:55 PM
Not sure how good the projection from the ABC election site is but there are predicting ALP 20 Lib 19 with the two independents Bob Such and Geoff Brock. Neither independent has played their hand as yet and there is even a small chance that the ALP (or a smaller chance that the Libs?) may get the number for a narrow majority.

SA Liberals win more than 53% of the vote on 2PP basis yet still don't get enough seats to govern. This would normally be a landslide, were it not for gerrymandering by the State AEC Commissioner, by pure coincidence no doubt, a Labor appointee!

Capablanca-Fan
17-03-2014, 12:57 PM
Not exactly. The Liberals circa 2002 weren't being lefties, they were being old-fashioned conservatives sceptical of the free market
A strange sort of conservatism to oppose the free market.

Patrick Byrom
17-03-2014, 01:11 PM
A strange sort of conservatism to oppose the free market.
Martin Luther (http://lege.net/blog.lege.net/financialoutrage.org.uk/reformation.org/luther-trade-usury.html) wouldn't agree with you:

First. Among themselves the merchants have a common rule which is their chief maxim and the basis of all their sharp practices, where they say: "I may sell my goods as dear as I can" They think this is their right. Thus occasion is given for avarice, and every window and door to hell is opened. What else does it mean but this: I care nothing about my neighbor; so long as I have my profit and satisfy my greed, of what concern is it to me if it injures my neighbor in ten ways at once? There you see how shamelessly this maxim flies squarely in the face not only of Christian love but also of natural law. How can there be anything good then in trade? How can it be without sin when such injustice is the chief maxim and rule of the whole business? On such a basis trade can be nothing but robbing and stealing the property of others.

Kevin Bonham
17-03-2014, 01:27 PM
SA Liberals win more than 53% of the vote on 2PP basis yet still don't get enough seats to govern. This would normally be a landslide, were it not for gerrymandering by the State AEC Commissioner, by pure coincidence no doubt, a Labor appointee!

This is false. What has actually happened is that the Liberals have won a bunch of outlying rural electorates massively, and in these Labor made no effort because they had no chance of winning them. If there was any point in fighting for votes in these areas Labor could have done so but there wasn't so they didn't.

Far from there being gerrymandering in Labor's favour, SA just happens to have an electoral geography in which a large part of the population lives in areas that normally lean slightly Labor and the minority lives in areas that skew hugely to the Coalition.

Short of having the whole state set up with absurdly shaped electorates that radiate from the city into the country in thin lines and have no commonality of interest there is no way around this.

The redistribution committee attempts to redistribute to make 50:50 2PP a tie but this is a stupid exercise because of things like sophomore effect (personal vote impacts for new members) and because of the relatively small number of close electorates. Unfortunately that stupid exercise is forced on them by referendum but interpretation of what the referendum requires is actually very vague and ambiguous. The committee did decide not to carry out the radical reforms needed after the previous election to ensure a party with 50.1% 2PP would win in part because it would require blatant gerrymandering to do it.

This is totally different to the bad old malapportionment days when state governments used to put different numbers of people in electorates so as to weight in favour of rural areas.

Really if those concerned about this result want to guarantee that 2PP win = election win then they need to find a completely new electoral system. Or improve their marginal seat campaigning skills!

Rincewind
17-03-2014, 01:28 PM
SA Liberals win more than 53% of the vote on 2PP basis yet still don't get enough seats to govern. This would normally be a landslide, were it not for gerrymandering by the State AEC Commissioner, by pure coincidence no doubt, a Labor appointee!

53% (or in other words a 6% difference) is a 'landslide' in what universe?

Kevin Bonham
17-03-2014, 01:29 PM
A strange sort of conservatism to oppose the free market.

Not when you don't have a free market to begin with, and in the area of shop trading hours, Tasmania didn't.

Desmond
20-03-2014, 01:48 PM
Proposed Brisbane Transit tunnel named (http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/brisbane-transit-tunnel-named-20140319-351j7.html) Bus and Train Tunnel, or the Bat tunnel for short.

People's choice for the naming competition going to the Campbell's Underground Network Tunnel, apparently.

george
23-03-2014, 10:56 PM
SA has minority Labor government returned for 4th term. Independent Brock has decided to support labor. Dont all emigrate to SA.

Rincewind
23-03-2014, 11:32 PM
SA has minority Labor government returned for 4th term. Independent Brock has decided to support labor. Dont all emigrate to SA.

Given that Bob Such is on extended sick leave it is the only outcome that could have resulted in a majority for either side for several months. Had Brock supported the Libs then we would have been left with 23 seats each with Such required to break the deadlock. As it is the government has 24 to 22 until Such returns from sick leave.

Rincewind
26-03-2014, 09:35 AM
Labor being sworn in for their 4th term in South Australia today.

Kevin Bonham
05-04-2014, 03:07 PM
Final tally in Tasmania was 15 Liberal, 7 Labor and 3 Green. The Libs won four seats out of five in Braddon, the first time this has been done. (In the old system with seven seats per division there were two cases of a party winning five out of seven).

Trouble for the CLP in the Northern Territory with three of their sixteen members quitting and about to form a new party apparently; for now numbers in the parliament are 13-8-4. And they have a seat going to a rather loseable by-election next week too so may lose their majority. The seat is on 13.2% but personal votes are a big thing in the NT's small electorates and swings of about this size are common in by-elections there.

Kevin Bonham
12-04-2014, 08:17 PM
CLP have retained Blain and their majority at least until someone else quits.

Capablanca-Fan
15-04-2014, 04:42 AM
Final tally in Tasmania was 15 Liberal, 7 Labor and 3 Green. The Libs won four seats out of five in Braddon, the first time this has been done. (In the old system with seven seats per division there were two cases of a party winning five out of seven).
A bit off topic, but in upstate New York last weekend, I met a Matt Smith. He was notable for being the only person there who spoke properly (everyone else spoke American), but he turns out to have been the youngest state MP elected when he won a Tassie parliamentary seat for the Liberals in 1998 at age 20.

Desmond
16-04-2014, 12:23 PM
What is O'Farrell doing? If pollies start resigning every time they tell a lie there will be none left!

Rincewind
16-04-2014, 12:35 PM
What is O'Farrell doing? If pollies start resigning every time they tell a lie there will be none left!

Certainly if integrity was to become fashionable then we would need a new Prime Minister.

Adamski
16-04-2014, 12:58 PM
What is O'Farrell doing? If pollies start resigning every time they tell a lie there will be none left!NSW Premier has resigned over a (very expensive) bottle of wine. How often has a Premier anywhere done that? I suspect never before.