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Kevin Bonham
20-04-2010, 09:42 PM
Kevin, has Nick McKim got a good deal for the Greens? Seems to be okay from a distance.

Well the original proposal was for two or ideally three Greens ministries. Bartlett offered only one which was rejected with McKim holding out for two, and the final deal is a compromise between one and two.

I think things will be very challenging for this hybrid government. A particular challenge is that McKim and O'Connor are partners and having a couple together in Cabinet is quite an unusual situation without the added bonus of them both belonging to a minor party that has been antagonistic towards the government it is working with.

Oepty
20-04-2010, 09:50 PM
Well the original proposal was for two or ideally three Greens ministries. Bartlett offered only one which was rejected with McKim holding out for two, and the final deal is a compromise between one and two.

I think things will be very challenging for this hybrid government. A particular challenge is that McKim and O'Connor are partners and having a couple together in Cabinet is quite an unusual situation without the added bonus of them both belonging to a minor party that has been antagonistic towards the government it is working with.

Yes, I heard that McKim and O'Connor are partners. I wonder whether this is the first time there are partners in an Australian cabinet.
Scott

Kevin Bonham
20-04-2010, 10:37 PM
Yes, I heard that McKim and O'Connor are partners. I wonder whether this is the first time there are partners in an Australian cabinet.
Scott

Not sure. There's a couple (husband and wife) in the current British cabinet. Bob Brown did circulate a list of partners (married or otherwise) who had served in Australian parliaments together but I am unsure whether any of those were at Cabinet level.

We could also have siblings in Cabinet if new MP David O'Byrne is given a ministry (for which, incidentally, he would be quite well qualified as he has the strongest experience base of the new Labor MPs) alongside sister Michelle. Let the Tasmanian jokes flow!

Oepty
22-04-2010, 07:52 PM
Not sure. There's a couple (husband and wife) in the current British cabinet. Bob Brown did circulate a list of partners (married or otherwise) who had served in Australian parliaments together but I am unsure whether any of those were at Cabinet level.

We could also have siblings in Cabinet if new MP David O'Byrne is given a ministry (for which, incidentally, he would be quite well qualified as he has the strongest experience base of the new Labor MPs) alongside sister Michelle. Let the Tasmanian jokes flow!

Kevin. As far as sibling goes my mind went to David and Rod Kemp under John Howard. In SA, we had former Premier Steele Hall and wife Joan Hall who was a minister but they didn't serve in state parliment together.
Scott

Capablanca-Fan
22-05-2010, 06:53 AM
yTNs11XIFN8&feature=player_embedded#!
Andrew Bolt comments in Why hasn’t commercial TV explained Labor’s bungling like this? (http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/why_hasnt_commecial_tv_explained_labours_bungling_ like_this/):

A brilliant explanation by Topher of the deceits behind the Victorian Government’s “solution” to Melbourne’s water crisis — a crisis caused by Labor’s bungling.

Left unsaid is that Brumby’s desalination plant will cost three times as much as a dam for a third of the water.

Capablanca-Fan
05-06-2010, 06:19 AM
KRISTINA Keneally lost two ministers in the space of just six hours (http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-act/mps-desert-the-sinking-ship-that-is-nsw-labor/story-e6freuzi-1225875716138) yesterday as her Government descended into full-blown crisis.

Major Events Minister Ian Macdonald resigned from the frontbench after he misled parliament and the Premier regarding an overseas trip, part of which was a delayed honeymoon. The minister had taken leave, but the taxpayer footed some of the bill.

And Juvenile Justice Minister Graham West stepped down yesterday after he failed to get funding for his portfolio — a slap in the face to the Premier as she marked six months in the job.

Kevin Bonham
05-06-2010, 09:01 AM
KRISTINA Keneally lost two ministers in the space of just six hours (http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-act/mps-desert-the-sinking-ship-that-is-nsw-labor/story-e6freuzi-1225875716138) yesterday as her Government descended into full-blown crisis.

Descended? Hasn't it been there for years? :lol:

Kevin Bonham
20-06-2010, 04:35 AM
Labor has been absolutely crushed in the by-election for the NSW state seat of Penrith. This is a seat vacated because of a scandal affecting the previous member. The Labor primary vote halved to a miserable 24.4%. The Libs got most of that with an 18.3% swing to them giving them a win on primaries in a seat previously held by Labor by 9.2%. The 2PP swing was a monstrous 25.5%. This represents a new record in by-election-losing awfulness for NSW Labor (despite some stiff competition from some of their previous efforts.)

Adamski
20-06-2010, 11:21 PM
So I will be moving from one Liberal areas to another - though I did not expect that to be the case when i started looking in the Penrith area. As KB says, a crushing defeat for the Labour government.

Desmond
21-06-2010, 11:47 AM
Labor has been absolutely crushed in the by-election for the NSW state seat of Penrith. This is a seat vacated because of a scandal affecting the previous member. The Labor primary vote halved to a miserable 24.4%. The Libs got most of that with an 18.3% swing to them giving them a win on primaries in a seat previously held by Labor by 9.2%. The 2PP swing was a monstrous 25.5%. This represents a new record in by-election-losing awfulness for NSW Labor (despite some stiff competition from some of their previous efforts.)
That's all good, it doesn't reflect on the fed gov't at all. Just ask Swan, he'll tell you all about it.

Basil
21-06-2010, 12:14 PM
That's all good, it doesn't reflect on the fed gov't at all. Just ask Swan, he'll tell you all about it.
/Mutley :D

ER
21-06-2010, 07:00 PM
Kevin, in your Tasmanian upper house (Elwick) election commentary you indicated that ex Labor turn Independent candidates tend to attract Green votes. Is this a Tasmanian phenomenon only or is it a countrywide tendency?

Kevin Bonham
22-06-2010, 01:31 AM
Kevin, in your Tasmanian upper house (Elwick) election commentary you indicated that ex Labor turn Independent candidates tend to attract Green votes. Is this a Tasmanian phenomenon only or is it a countrywide tendency?

Gee, that's a good question. Only problem is there have been so few ex-Labor independents in politics in Australia recently it's very difficult to answer! Depends on the independent really. Greens will normally preference any independent who seems semi-reasonable to them ahead of locked-in major party candidates, but if the ex-Labor independent is a Graeme Campbell type they will realise he is ex-Labor for a reason they don't approve of and respond accordingly.

Even in the Tasmanian upper house, I think a certain kind of ex-Labor independent attracts Green preferences. If it is just a Labor hack running as "independent" for the sake of not running under a party name (often an advantage in our upper house, oddly enough) then the Greens voters see that for what it is.

ER
22-06-2010, 08:51 AM
Thanks, I was also thinking along the lines that Labor, due to their polymorphic ideological platform could opt for establishing a " pro green -independent" fraction on a more concrete than the present abstract basis.
That way, they could attract Green sympathisers or even voters, under a "well -they - are- already- in - power - or -at - worst - in - opposition, anyway" presumption.

Igor_Goldenberg
22-06-2010, 09:28 AM
Thanks, I was also thinking along the lines that Labor, due to their polymorphic ideological platform could opt for establishing a " pro green -independent" fraction on a more concrete than the present abstract basis.
That way, they could attract Green sympathisers or even voters, under a "well -they - are- already- in - power - or -at - worst - in - opposition, anyway" presumption.
Why bother? They will just distribute how-to-vote green cards with Labor in second place (as they keep doing election after election).

ER
22-06-2010, 09:50 AM
Why bother? They will just distribute how-to-vote green cards with Labor in second place (as they keep doing election after election).
Igor, that is definitely not the case!
Please have a look here
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/03/green-preferenc.html
and here
http://www.greenleft.org.au/node/4478

Igor_Goldenberg
22-06-2010, 11:19 AM
Igor, that is definitely not the case!
Please have a look here
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/03/green-preferenc.html
and here
http://www.greenleft.org.au/node/4478
Jak,
I did not mean genuine Green preferences.
I meant fake preference cards that Labor distributed pretending to be a different party.
In SA election Labor distributed faked Family First how-to-vote card.
In Penrith by-election Labor distributed fake Green how-to-vote card.

ER
22-06-2010, 12:00 PM
Jak,
I did not mean genuine Green preferences.
I meant fake preference cards that Labor distributed pretending to be a different party.
In SA election Labor distributed faked Family First how-to-vote card.
In Penrith by-election Labor distributed fake Green how-to-vote card.

Oh I get it now, but this is the lowest form of political dishonesty if dishonesty could be graded.
Whichever political party resorts to such methods should be dealt with harshly by law as well as be condemned by the electorate!

Igor_Goldenberg
22-06-2010, 12:58 PM
Oh I get it now, but this is the lowest form of political dishonesty if dishonesty could be graded.
Whichever political party resorts to such methods should be dealt with harshly by law as well as be condemned by the electorate!
So far Labor did it quite a few times without any punishment whatsoever.

Kevin Bonham
22-06-2010, 04:31 PM
It actually isn't illegal to circulate misleading how-to-vote cards at most elections. So long as you don't mislead the voter about the matter of actually casting your vote, there's no problem.

Illegal HTV cards are ones which do things like:

* say the election is on the wrong day
* tell people to vote informally and say it will be formal
* make false statements about who is running.

But stuff like a pro-Labor HTV card headed "Put Your Family First" and looking like it is a Family First HTV card, that's actually perfectly legal.

Tasmania has a different approach to all this how-to-vote-card nonsense. In our state elections, we just ban the stupid things entirely. Intelligent voters can vote without being harassed by party hacks, and if a party wants to instruct its less independent voters on how to direct their preferences, it needs to find some way to do so before the election.

Igor_Goldenberg
22-06-2010, 04:44 PM
It actually isn't illegal to circulate misleading how-to-vote cards at most elections. So long as you don't mislead the voter about the matter of actually casting your vote, there's no problem.

Illegal HTV cards are ones which do things like:

* say the election is on the wrong day
* tell people to vote informally and say it will be formal
* make false statements about who is running.

But stuff like a pro-Labor HTV card headed "Put Your Family First" and looking like it is a Family First HTV card, that's actually perfectly legal.
It might be legal, but still beneath contempt.


Tasmania has a different approach to all this how-to-vote-card nonsense. In our state elections, we just ban the stupid things entirely. Intelligent voters can vote without being harassed by party hacks, and if a party wants to instruct its less independent voters on how to direct their preferences, it needs to find some way to do so before the election.
Not bad.

ER
22-06-2010, 05:08 PM
So far Labor did it quite a few times without any punishment whatsoever.

If my memory serves me well Libs did it to (actually not the Party but some relatives or a candidate) in Sydney trying to connect Labor with some terrorist sympathisers in Sydney! I think they faced the music too since they were taken to court!

Igor_Goldenberg
22-06-2010, 05:23 PM
If my memory serves me well Libs did it to (actually not the Party but some relatives or a candidate) in Sydney trying to connect Labor with some terrorist sympathisers in Sydney! I think they faced the music too since they were taken to court!
Good riddance. That's the difference:
Liberal Party threw them out, ALP endorsed the machination.

Kevin Bonham
22-06-2010, 08:31 PM
If my memory serves me well Libs did it to (actually not the Party but some relatives or a candidate) in Sydney trying to connect Labor with some terrorist sympathisers in Sydney! I think they faced the music too since they were taken to court!

Yes this was the Lindsay pamphlet scandal involving at least five people including the husbands of a Liberal MP and a Liberal candidate. Not all those involved were Liberal Party members but those who were were expelled from the party and four fines were imposed.

However, the reason for the fines was that the fake pamphlets were unauthorised electoral material - that is, they did not contain the name and address of a person authorising their publication. It was nothing to do with the content of the pamphlets.

Despite what Igor says, the real reason they were given the boot from the Liberal campaign was not that they engaged in dirty tricks but that they did so in a hamfisted way and were caught and this backfired against and harmed their party. The Liberals have been involved in plenty of other electoral tricks - for instance secretly bankrolling Exclusive Brethren attack ads on the Greens - without any contrition being shown even when they were found out.

Kevin Bonham
08-10-2010, 12:49 AM
Victorian state election just seven weeks away.

Depending on pollster, polls show Labor either slightly ahead or well ahead, and Brumby has slightly better net approval ratings than Baillieu. Inner-city Labor-Green contests will be interesting following on from the federal result in the electorate of Melbourne.

Last week there was a by-election in WA - Labor-held seat which the incumbent Coalition government did not contest; Labor retained but amusingly many of the Liberal voters voted for the Christian Democrats, who finished a distant second with over 20% of primaries and nearly 30% 2PP.

ER
08-10-2010, 08:36 PM
LIBERAL PARTY FOR CHESS!
VOTE FOR GLADYS LIU!

For People who want to see Chess have a voice and a great supporter in our State Parliament, please consider GLADYS LIU!
Gladys is the proud mum of Sally and Derek Yu, two bright young students and excellent Chess players!
She was untill recently President of Box Hill Chess Club and still is the V/P of the above organisation!


Gladys Liu is a Liberal candidate for South Eastern Metropolitan Region for the 2010 Victorian State election and lives in the area with her two teenage children.

Gladys has worked as the Multicultural Adviser assisting the Victorian Opposition since 2007 and her efforts in this area have resulted in significant progress in multicultural communities throughout Victoria in the last three years.

Moving to Australia from Hong Kong in 1985, Gladyis has completed a Bachelor of Applied Sciences (Speech Pathology) on a full scholarship from La Trobe University. She worked as a speech pathologist at schools for a number of years before establishing her own practice, the first English-Chinese bilingual speech pathology clinic in Melbourne.

An active member of the community, Gladys helped to found the Chinese Liberals Association, promoting the Liberal Party amongst Melbounrne's Chinese community through street festivals and the production of an annual publication. Gladys has also volunteered her time to many not-for-profit organisations over many years, including St Vincent de Paul, the Box Hill Chess Club, and Channel 31 Community TV, for whom she currently serves as a board member.

Gladys is enthusiastic and looking forward to representing local residents in the South Eastern Metropolitan Region. She is passionate about multicultural affairs and improving community health, education and youth support systems.

Kevin Bonham
08-10-2010, 08:47 PM
For those curious, South-East Metropolitan is a Legislative Council district which has multi-member proportional representation similar to the Senate. The current distribution of seats in S-E M is 3 Labor and 2 Liberal. JaK, do you know what Gladys Liu's ticket position is? I would assume that if the two contesting MPs are recontesting then she may be in position 3 which requires a substantial swing to the party for her to be elected.

ER
08-10-2010, 08:57 PM
For those curious, South-East Metropolitan is a Legislative Council district which has multi-member proportional representation similar to the Senate. The current distribution of seats in S-E M is 3 Labor and 2 Liberal. JaK, do you know what Gladys Liu's ticket position is? I would assume that if the two contesting MPs are recontesting then she may be in position 3 which requires a substantial swing to the party for her to be elected.

No, I don't at present Kevin, but I 'll find out soon and I will publish all the details. Also bear in mind that the Leader of State Opposition in Victoria Mr Ted Baillieu is a Chess fun, has visited the Box Hill and Canterbury Juniors Chess Clubs and after some unfortunate result vs a BHCC's certain junior World Champion sighed philosophically: "Well that's what happens when you play Chess with someone named Bobby"!

Kevin Bonham
08-10-2010, 09:21 PM
I understand Baillieu is relatively leftist and "wet" by Liberal standards. VEXNEWS continually calls him "Red Ted" and tries to get rid of him!

ER
08-10-2010, 10:24 PM
I understand Baillieu is relatively leftist and "wet" by Liberal standards. VEXNEWS continually calls him "Red Ted" and tries to get rid of him!
Who cares what VEXNEWS publish or think?
They are a banch of Magpie haters!
Worse than Neil Mitchell, who identified the two Collingwood players involved in a Police investigation into certain allegations!
Ted Baillieu, belongs to one of the richest and most influential families in Victoria, and he is going to be Victoria's Premier.
He will be good for Chess and that's what counts most for me!

Kevin Bonham
08-10-2010, 11:37 PM
Who cares what VEXNEWS publish or think?
They are a banch of Magpie haters!
Worse than Neil Mitchell, who identified the two Collingwood players involved in a Police investigation into certain allegations!

Yes, that was where he was taking his lead from.

Do you reckon Baillieu is actually going to win? Peter Brent reckons there’s a pretty good chance of a change of government. (http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/victoria_to_swing_to_coalition/) Most other psephologists seem to expect Brumby to retain.

I'm not informed enough about Vic politics to comment. The polls hardly look like a losing position but I said much the same re Gillard whose polling was only marginally worse, and she came extremely close to defeat.

antichrist
09-10-2010, 02:59 PM
Gladys Liu or not I could never bring myself to vote for libs, in spite of how bad NSW Labour is will go to greens and some independs and then Labour and then Lib. Some people from Asian countries come here because of better living conditions wages etc, but dont realise that we only have them coz of strong unions at criticial times in our past.

If not for those unions we would be almost as downtrodden as some Asian counties.

Igor_Goldenberg
09-10-2010, 09:46 PM
JaK,
Is your love affair with Joolia over? She wouldn't approve of your post:lol: :lol:

As much as I'd love to see Labor out of the office (even though the need is less stressing on the state level) I think they will be returned. Worse still, they might be returned as minority government with backing of Greens.
The only factor that might work against them is that Brumby is nowhere near as likeable as Bracks was (a bit similar to Brown versus Blair in UK).
Unfortunately Liberals lack good leadership, most popular Lib politicians in Melbourne are still Costello and Kennett (who has been in retirement for more then 10 years).

PS. I'll be glad to see Gladys in the parliament.

ER
09-10-2010, 10:30 PM
JaK,
Is your love affair with Joolia over? She wouldn't approve of your post:lol: :lol:
How's your love affair with Tony?

As much as I'd love to see Labor out of the office (even though the need is less stressing on the state level) I think they will be returned. Worse still, they might be returned as minority government with backing of Greens.
Defeatist crap!

The only factor that might work against them is that Brumby is nowhere near as likeable as Bracks was (a bit similar to Brown versus Blair in UK).
Uninformed crap! Brumby has huge problems to face and personal appeal is not one of those. Think of MYKI, think of Public Transport, think of hospital waiting lists.

Unfortunately Liberals lack good leadership,
More uninformed populist crap! Ted Baillieu is a popular and charismatic leader and quite likable!

Most popular Lib politicians in Melbourne are still Costello and Kennett (who has been in retirement for more then 10 years).
For your information Costello was a Federal Politician (Treasurer) and Jeff was voted out by the people of Victoria!

PS. I'll be glad to see Gladys in the parliament.
Then do something about it!

ER
09-10-2010, 11:24 PM
For those curious, South-East Metropolitan is a Legislative Council district which has multi-member proportional representation similar to the Senate. The current distribution of seats in S-E M is 3 Labor and 2 Liberal. JaK, do you know what Gladys Liu's ticket position is? I would assume that if the two contesting MPs are recontesting then she may be in position 3 which requires a substantial swing to the party for her to be elected.
Kev I was looking at this earlier this evening
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/voters-turn-green-but-alp-set-to-win-fourth-consecutive-term-in-victoria/story-e6frea8c-1225935689202
It very much reflects my predictions of the general climate before we get to vote.
People are unhappy with Mr Brumby, condolences to him and his family for the loss of his dad BTW, not so much for his individual performance but for the sheer incompetence of his Ministry.
I will give specific details as we go into the campaign, however, I have Chess related priorities now, one later this morning at the MCC! :)

Igor_Goldenberg
10-10-2010, 02:12 PM
How's your love affair with Tony?

Never had one. And you still didn't answer the question!

Rincewind
14-10-2010, 09:43 PM
I thought people here may enjoy this...

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/as-mike-ranns-end-nears-who-is-in-line-to-be-premier/story-e6frea83-1225937845938

The image that goes with the story is a kitch classic

Kevin Bonham
28-10-2010, 11:18 AM
Current polling in Vic (state election is on 27 Nov) shows a large swing in primary vote from Labor to the Greens with the Coalition getting very little action. If it stays this way Labor will win because even a huge swing to the Greens sheds only a few seats.

Igor_Goldenberg
29-10-2010, 08:38 AM
As much as I don't want to see Labor government, it's a lesser evil then minority Labor with the support of the Greens.

Igor_Goldenberg
29-10-2010, 08:41 AM
Latest Newspoll in the NSW shows Labor primary vote at a healthy 23%, while Coalition slipped to a measly 46%.

I feel sorry for Kristina Keneally because it's largely not her fault but the inheritance dumped on her by the NSW ALP.

Igor_Goldenberg
29-10-2010, 08:48 AM
Actually, given that Green has 17% support, next NSW election might mirror QLD 1998 election, where Labor won office and Coalition lost eleven seats to One Nation. That election was a highest point and start of the downfall for One Nation. Will the same happen to the Greens?
Recently in a conversation with a friend I said that sooner or later people will wake up to Greens and they will go into oblivion. To that my friend responded that many in Germany thought the same about Nazis. Let's hope the Greens will share the fate of One Nation.

Kevin Bonham
29-10-2010, 11:30 AM
Let's hope the Greens will share the fate of One Nation.

I do not think they will. One Nation was a disorganised populist revolt that collapsed because those running it were mostly not career politicians. The Greens represent something far more long-term, robust and systematic, and we've already seen in Tasmania that their vote will peak, fall back and then rise again without collapsing.

If anything might cause the Green factor to fall over it's what we're starting to see in Tasmania, where the Greens got so popular they are now in the government as a minor coalition partner. There is a lot of stress in that arrangement and possibilities that we might see Green parties start to split (with moderates joining the ALP or extremists quitting and running as ultra-green independents). But I don't think it's very likely. I think we're seeing permanent structural change that may even pose a long-term threat to Labor's existence as one of the two major parties.

This (http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/10/28/how-the-2007-election-doubled-the-greens-vote-everywhere/) on recent changes in Green polling is interesting - especially as polling for the Greens is still going up even now.

Igor_Goldenberg
29-10-2010, 11:40 AM
I do not think they will. One Nation was a disorganised populist revolt that collapsed because those running it were mostly not career politicians. The Greens represent something far more long-term, robust and systematic, and we've already seen in Tasmania that their vote will peak, fall back and then rise again without collapsing.
Unfortunately you are very likely to be right.


If anything might cause the Green factor to fall over it's what we're starting to see in Tasmania, where the Greens got so popular they are now in the government as a minor coalition partner. There is a lot of stress in that arrangement and possibilities that we might see Green parties start to split (with moderates joining the ALP or extremists quitting and running as ultra-green independents). But I don't think it's very likely. I think we're seeing permanent structural change that may even pose a long-term threat to Labor's existence as one of the two major parties.

Unfortunately you are probably right again.

antichrist
29-10-2010, 01:37 PM
treat the Greens like a gum tree. there is a big crown on top, green and attractive with flowers, birds and bees. They are the attractive popular members of parliament. Then there is the hard core - when you get past the bark of the trunk and it is a spotted gum or turpentine, cut that off and you still have the stump and roots, that may even need a fire to regenerate the seeds inside. That is a almost total electoral wipe out but they will sprout again.

And also the seeds the crown originally dropped or eaten by birds and dispersed with poo will resprout - isn't that marvelleous. And we know gums take over any country that has been deserated - like our environment is - so we have the Greens political party as well. Isn't that typical Byron Bay holistic New Age ganga mumbo jumbo - but dont you dare delete KB!

Igor_Goldenberg
04-11-2010, 08:49 PM
It turns out Labor parliamentarians do not live in the areas they purport to represent - unlike Coalition and Greens

Half of Brumby's Cabinet don't live in own electorates (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/11/03/3056440.htm?site=melbourne)

Brumby himself lives in Strathmore, which is next door to Broadmeadows he represents (not a transgression IMHO).

However, Martin Pakula represents Western suburbs but lives on the opposite side of Melbourne in a very prestigious and affluent Blackrock

Johan Schaffer represents LaTrobe Valley but lives in Elwood - one of the most expensive suburbs.

All but two Coalition and all Green MPs live in their electorates.

antichrist
04-11-2010, 08:58 PM
when Charles Blunt, leader of Nationals, was running for Lismore he did not live in the area either, he was a banker or something. And he lost to a local Labor guy

Igor_Goldenberg
14-11-2010, 09:47 PM
Coalition put Greens last on the senate group ticket! (http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/stand/stand-howtovotecards.html)
It might be argued the Lib lose some tactical points (even though I don't think so), but I am glad they did and won't have to fill every square in the Senate vote.

antichrist
14-11-2010, 11:44 PM
Coalition put Greens last on the senate group ticket! (http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/stand/stand-howtovotecards.html)
It might be argued the Lib lose some tactical points (even though I don't think so), but I am glad they did and won't have to fill every square in the Senate vote.

Igor, you confirm again why I mostly avoid entering sites elsewhere when linked, as I also tell Jono. The link has absolutely nothing to do with the Co-alition putting Greens last...

Is it me or do you guys like insulting our intelligence and wasting our time.

(at least I try to be insulting or intelligent or humorous or stupid - but this link does nothing)

Igor_Goldenberg
15-11-2010, 08:15 AM
Igor, you confirm again why I mostly avoid entering sites elsewhere when linked, as I also tell Jono. The link has absolutely nothing to do with the Co-alition putting Greens last...

Is it me or do you guys like insulting our intelligence and wasting our time.

(at least I try to be insulting or intelligent or humorous or stupid - but this link does nothing)
It is you.

ER
15-11-2010, 04:28 PM
An interview with Ms Gladys Liu, ex President and now Senior Vice President of Box Hill Chess Club, and a Liberal candidate for South Eastern Metropolitan Region for the 2010 Victorian State election will be published later this evening in the AN INTERVIEW thread!

Igor_Goldenberg
17-11-2010, 02:41 PM
Anthony Green (http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/11/implications-of-the-liberals-putting-the-greens-last-in-the-lower-house.html) makes an interesting point. He reckons Liberals will not bother with how-to-vote card or campaign in marginal Labor/Green seats at all, thus causing more even flow of preferences.
Not sure he is right, but it might cause both Labor and Green to devote resources to at least seat of Melbourne.

Igor_Goldenberg
22-11-2010, 03:05 PM
For those curious, South-East Metropolitan is a Legislative Council district which has multi-member proportional representation similar to the Senate. The current distribution of seats in S-E M is 3 Labor and 2 Liberal. JaK, do you know what Gladys Liu's ticket position is? I would assume that if the two contesting MPs are recontesting then she may be in position 3 which requires a substantial swing to the party for her to be elected.
Gladys in #3 on the ticket, it's going to be a fight against the odds in the mostly lefty region.

ER
22-11-2010, 04:55 PM
I will be there on Saturday, as a part of Ms Liu's team distributing How To Vote material and making sure Labor Party voters (which I don't brand as Lefties) having a second thought before they cast their vote!

Kevin Bonham
22-11-2010, 07:37 PM
I will be there on Saturday, as a part of Ms Liu's team distributing How To Vote material and making sure Labor Party voters (which I don't brand as Lefties) having a second thought before they cast their vote!

I'm sure chess will be very high on their priorities!

I guess this is a case of each to their own and I appreciate your desire to repay her excellent work for chess in kind, but I don't think anyone will catch me handing out fliers for Will Hodgman and Eric Abetz just because a former state chess champ has worked as their chief of staff!

In other news, Ted Baillieu is suing the ALP for defamation over attack ads focusing on his role in a real estate company. I think this is a bad move by Baillieu whatever the facts of the matter since it looks thin-skinned and everybody knows that he hardly needs the money. It also only adds further fuel to the allegations by giving them another round of the media cycle.

Igor_Goldenberg
23-11-2010, 07:59 AM
I will be there on Saturday, as a part of Ms Liu's team distributing How To Vote material and making sure Labor Party voters (which I don't brand as Lefties) having a second thought before they cast their vote!
Good luck. I'll be happy if you take extra Senate seat from the Labor.

antichrist
23-11-2010, 10:23 PM
Does Ms Liu satisfy Jak's criteria of being beautiful, like Julia did?

Kevin Bonham
26-11-2010, 10:31 PM
Vic election tomorrow and the polling has turned pretty nasty for Labor in the final days: Morgan 49-51, Nielsen 48-52, Newspoll 48.9-51.1. Incumbency seems not to be worth what it was so they'd better have done their marginal seats strategy well a la Rann in SA or it could be an unpleasant night for them. Brumby has worse personal ratings than Baillieu.

The Ballarat and Bendigo seats especially, where Labor is sitting on a lot of five and six percent margins, look very important to the outcome.

Frankly I'm surprised Labor's struggling quite this much in the campaign; it's not like they are half as bad as Qld or NSW; it seems the "15 years" line is getting some traction.

Garvinator
26-11-2010, 10:38 PM
I think it has more to do with brand Labor being on the nose big time in state politics especially.

antichrist
26-11-2010, 11:33 PM
If opposition leaders are as useless as Farrell is of NSW no wonder they stay in for 15 years. The guy can't even agree with ethic classes for schools.

Farraell does not have enough guts though he has too much of them

If he had any guts and ethics he would boot religious instruction out of NSW schools, when becoming premier.

Kevin Bonham
27-11-2010, 03:16 PM
Shocking Galaxy poll for Labor in Queensland showing they are racing NSW Labor to the bottom of a very deep barrel.

LNP primary 48
Labor primary 28
Green primary 16
2PP 60-40 to LNP
Bligh approval 25 disapproval 70 (net -45)
Langbroek approval 41 disapproval 39 (net +2)
Beauty contest Langbroek 49 Bligh 35

...and Langbroek is not even the preferred LNP leader with more voters preferring Springborg!

Kevin Bonham
27-11-2010, 10:48 PM
OK, after a long evening (marred by poor ABC coverage and inadequate info from the VEC) the current status is that the Coalition have won 44 of 88 seats. They need one more to govern outright and the most likely is Bentleigh, where they are ahead by 213 votes on the VEC site. Prepolls to be added on Monday will be crucial. There are three or four other seats where Labor have very narrow leads, Eltham being the closest at the moment with only a 200-ish lead, there's a few others around 700. Labor must win every in-doubt seat for a 44-44 deadlock.

I'll have a rough go at the Upper House (these are very rough and could change) :

E Metro 3 Coalition 2 Labor
E Vic 3 Coaltion 2 Labor
N Metro 2 Coalition 2 Labor 1 Green
N Vic 3 Coalition 2 Labor
SE Metro 2 Coalition 3 Labor (sorry Gladys!)
S Metro 3 Coalition 1 Labor 1 Green
W Metro 2 Coalition 3 Labor or 2 Coalition 2 Labor 1 Green
W Vic 2 Coalition 2 Labor 1 Country Alliance or 3 Coalition 2 Labor

Total (estimated) Coalition 20-21 Labor 16-17 Green 2-3 CA 0-1

Looks like the Coalition will have a lot of control in the Upper House.

Garvinator
27-11-2010, 11:50 PM
44 each would be very 'interesting'. Normally in hung parliaments there are a few independants of various varieties and it is a matter of attempting to get their support.

In this situation, it is both of the major parties that have 44 out of 88. If there ever was a result that could see everyone back to the polls, that could be it.

pappubahry
28-11-2010, 11:02 AM
44 each would be very 'interesting'. Normally in hung parliaments there are a few independants of various varieties and it is a matter of attempting to get their support.

In this situation, it is both of the major parties that have 44 out of 88. If there ever was a result that could see everyone back to the polls, that could be it.
Someone on Sky News was saying (not sure if it was true) that if neither side could win confidence of the Assembly, then they'd have to go back to the polls in four Saturdays' time... which would be on Christmas Day! :lol:

Kevin Bonham
28-11-2010, 11:08 AM
It's all speculation because 45-43 is the more likely result. But I suspect if it is 44-44 then there will be some temporary grand coalition to enable the next election to be held at a less ridiculous time - either that, or somebody will rat.

By the way some people are saying Stephen Mayne could get up for the Upper House from 1% of the vote but I don't think this will happen. It is based on the ABC computer which assumes every vote will follow the party tickets (some vote below the line and in Victoria those voting below the line can exhaust). Also Mayne is currently only 41 votes ahead of the second Green on the ABC's projection and that margin will likely be wiped out on further counting.

Kevin Bonham
28-11-2010, 02:27 PM
There will be further counting in the critical seat of Bentleigh this afternoon so it is possible the election will be decided today - depending on what happens.

Kevin Bonham
28-11-2010, 05:36 PM
The Libs have moved further ahead in the critical seat of Bentleigh. Far enough that I do not believe they can be caught.

Oepty
28-11-2010, 05:47 PM
The Libs have moved further ahead in the critical seat of Bentleigh. Far enough that I do not believe they can be caught.

ABC radio agree with you, they just announced that the Liberals had won the seat. We miss out on the fun of a 44-44 tie, a pity for the spectactle, but probably better it didn't happen.
Scott

deanhogg
28-11-2010, 05:58 PM
ABC radio agree with you, they just announced that the Liberals had won the seat. We miss out on the fun of a 44-44 tie, a pity for the spectactle, but probably better it didn't happen.
Scott
If we went to polls again labour would be slaughtered

with backlash from public after saturday result .. Its

better we have some stable government even if Baillieu not

a popular leader for this state .

Igor_Goldenberg
28-11-2010, 06:36 PM
A strong resemblance to UK.
Brumby is probably better manager then Bracks, but he lacks his charms.
He couldn't wait until Bracks makes way for him - and lost the next election.
Exactly like Brown and Blair (even their surnames start with B).

And Labor should learn that changing a leader when in government is not the best strategy, IMO Bracks would probably hold.

Igor_Goldenberg
28-11-2010, 06:37 PM
If we went to polls again labour would be slaughtered

with backlash from public after saturday result .. Its

better we have some stable government even if Baillieu not

a popular leader for this state .
I think Victorians will warm up to him.
Someone noticed that Libs are hopeless in opposition, but competent in the government. While Labor might be brilliant opposition but usually incompetent in government.

ER
28-11-2010, 07:40 PM
there were (audible) happy exhlamations :P from the Libs headquarters earlier this afternoon, (when I called just before the CV AGM) however, neither official announcements, nor audible champagne corke poppings were there to be heard! :P

ER
28-11-2010, 07:42 PM
However, Igor stated again and live earlier this afternoon during the Victorian Blitz Championship at MCC, that if the Libs win by four votes or less (that's the Goldenberg family official No.) he will claim Bentleigh for himself or at least he will claim the win as his family's affair! :) :clap:

Kevin Bonham
28-11-2010, 07:54 PM
A strong resemblance to UK.
Brumby is probably better manager then Bracks, but he lacks his charms.
He couldn't wait until Bracks makes way for him - and lost the next election.

But Brumby didn't roll Bracks, Bracks resigned. He had comfortably won an election less than a year earlier and was under no pressure from Brumby. He just decided to quit, perhaps because his heart wasn't in it and he wanted to get out on top of the game.


However, Igor stated again and live earlier this afternoon during the Victorian Blitz Championship at MCC, that if the Libs win by four votes or less (that's the Goldenberg family official No.) he will claim Bentleigh for himself or at least he will claim the win as his family's affair!

If there were four of them then they can claim it if the margin is eight or less, since each of them could have changed the margin by two by voting the other way.

ER
28-11-2010, 08:08 PM
If there were four of them then they can claim it if the margin is eight or less, since each of them could have changed the margin by two by voting the other way.

Correct! :)

Kevin Bonham
28-11-2010, 09:47 PM
There's a fairly high risk Eltham will go as well making it 46-42 if that happens. Based on what we saw today in Bentleigh Labor would not be confident of defending their lead in Eltham.

Oepty
29-11-2010, 06:35 AM
SA Treasurer Kevin Foley was attacked early Sunday morning while walking down a city streat looking for cab. Foley says it was a totally unprovoked attack, and police are investigating. There are reports this morning that police have more than one version of what happened and it might take a while to find out exactly what happened.
Scott

Basil
29-11-2010, 07:42 AM
SA Treasurer Kevin Foley was attacked early Sunday morning while walking down a city streat looking for cab. Foley says it was a totally unprovoked attack, and police are investigating. There are reports this morning that police have more than one version of what happened and it might take a while to find out exactly what happened.
Scott
One SKY report I caught suggested he was smacked with a rolled-up newspaper and accused of sleeping with the swiper's wife.

Igor_Goldenberg
29-11-2010, 10:59 AM
But Brumby didn't roll Bracks, Bracks resigned. He had comfortably won an election less than a year earlier and was under no pressure from Brumby. He just decided to quit, perhaps because his heart wasn't in it and he wanted to get out on top of the game.

The reasons for his resignation are not clear. And Blair also resigned without being challenged by Brown.
Both resigned in 2007, and their successors lost next election in 2010.
Many believe that Blair and Bracks would've won had they stayed.

Kevin Bonham
29-11-2010, 11:12 AM
The reasons for his resignation are not clear.

Indeed not, but there is no reason to believe fear of being rolled by Brumby was among them. Indeed Brumby had resigned in favour of Bracks to allow the latter to become Premier in the first place and he simply wasn't a threat to Bracks, because of his limitations which have become all too clear in this election. Bracks' resignation came more or less completely by surprise.


And Blair also resigned without being challenged by Brown.

There were much clearer leadership tensions between those two, including an alleged (but never proven) handover deal. Furthermore Blair's popularity was dropping and his credibility very badly damaged by Iraq.


Both resigned in 2007, and their successors lost next election in 2010.
Many believe that Blair and Bracks would've won had they stayed.

I believe Bracks would have won had he stayed. I am certain that Blair would not have won outright.

Kevin Bonham
29-11-2010, 02:42 PM
Ballarat East is also looking pretty losable for Labor, down to a lead of 166 votes there and could be 4000+ votes to go there.

ER
29-11-2010, 05:18 PM
The reasons for his resignation are not clear...
BTW the saga continues even worse now than it was then

4 Oct 2010 ... The son of former Premier Steve Bracks has been arrested for public drunkenness after falling asleep outside a police station. ...
And the voter says "mate you can't keep your own house in order etc etc " ;)

ER
29-11-2010, 05:24 PM
AFTER more than four years as opposition leader, Ted Baillieu will shortly realise his dream of becoming premier of Victoria.
It's over, Bramby conceded!

Oepty
29-11-2010, 05:29 PM
One SKY report I caught suggested he was smacked with a rolled-up newspaper and accused of sleeping with the swiper's wife.

As far as I can tell this report is completely and utterly wrong. If SKY did report this then they have stuffed up completely and applied the curcumstances surrounding Premier Mike Rann's assault from last year to this incident. It seems Kevin Foley suffered quite a servere punch to the face and there is no suggestion that Foley was sleeping with the wife of his attacker. Foley though said that he talked to and offered to help a clearly upset women just before the attack. It has been reported that he stepped into a dispute between a man and woman.
Scott

Basil
29-11-2010, 06:07 PM
As far as I can tell this report is completely and utterly wrong.
I wasn't paying attention - I may have my facts mangled and SKY was indeed referring to an earlier incident while reporting on this current story.

Oepty
29-11-2010, 08:25 PM
I wasn't paying attention - I may have my facts mangled and SKY was indeed referring to an earlier incident while reporting on this current story.

I hope SKY were mentioning the earlier incident, terrible reporting if they were not.
Scott

Kevin Bonham
29-11-2010, 10:53 PM
Labor have slightly improved their position following the bulk of prepolls in Eltham and now have a pretty good chance of saving that one. Of course, all these in-doubt seats are determining now is whether Baillieu is one bad by-election away from a hung parliament or whether he has some sort of margin.

Goughfather
30-11-2010, 12:07 AM
But Brumby didn't roll Bracks, Bracks resigned. He had comfortably won an election less than a year earlier and was under no pressure from Brumby. He just decided to quit, perhaps because his heart wasn't in it and he wanted to get out on top of the game.

Ditto Peter Beattie and ditto Bob Carr. Either that or because they could see the writing on the wall and wanted to go out on what superficially appeared to be their own terms. Interestingly, these leadership changes seem to have bought the respective Queensland and New South Wales government one more term - although credit must go to an inept opposition in the first instance and an unelectable opposition leader in the second. Ironically, both of these circumstances seem to have produced governments that are dying slow deaths and will be decimated in a far more comprehensive fashion this time than would have otherwise been the case - leaving them in the wilderness for far longer than would have been the case than if they had lost last time around.

Perhaps in the circumstances Victorian Labor may take solace in the fact that they will be competitive in the next election, unlike their Queensland and New South Wales counterparts.

Kevin Bonham
30-11-2010, 01:41 AM
Ironically, both of these circumstances seem to have produced governments that are dying slow deaths and will be decimated in a far more comprehensive fashion this time than would have otherwise been the case - leaving them in the wilderness for far longer than would have been the case than if they had lost last time around.

Yes. Mediocre governments often win one election too many and NSW and Queensland are paradigm cases of that.

The cleverness of the Victorian Coalition's campaign was that while bagging the Brumby government on its record, it also catered for the voter who thought that record wasn't that bad, with an implied message that if they gave Brumby another term his government would have ended up like NSW. And Labor couldn't really counter that, (i) because it wasn't really explicitly said (ii) because they were too busy attacking the Libs and not spending enough time selling their record (iii) because everyone knew that it was true.

We may here have seen a rare case of a scare campaign of a sort winning from Opposition. (Labor's scare attempts this election were pathetic, precisely because Baillieu's so unfrightening.)

Spiny Norman
30-11-2010, 05:32 AM
Sample of 1 (me):
-- about 4 weeks out from the election I had decided to vote Labor
-- I liked Brumby personally, as he is a fairly conservative Labor identity
-- I disliked Baillieu ("Red Ted") as a too soft, too left Liberal

Despite Labor's bad record on projects (fast train to Ballarat which wasn't fast, Myki, desal plant, north-south pipeline, inability to properly fund public transport, mismanagement of hospitals and ambulance services, decline of our 'soft' police force, bad legislation on abortion, bad legislation on freedom of speech) ... it still wasn't enough for me to want to turn them out if Baillieu was what I would get in return ... almost, but not quite.

What changed my mind?

Labor's attack ads which went for the man and not the ball. They looked completely desperate and devoid of integrity. That's what changed my vote back to the Libs.

Capablanca-Fan
30-11-2010, 06:42 AM
Yes. Mediocre governments often win one election too many and NSW and Queensland are paradigm cases of that.
This might also have been the case with John Major in the UK, and GWB in the USA, although in this case the Dems have self-destructed by thinking that displeasure with Bush and the GOP = mandate to push far-left policies.

Capablanca-Fan
30-11-2010, 06:48 AM
-- I disliked Baillieu ("Red Ted") as a too soft, too left Liberal
Agreed.


Despite Labor's bad record on projects (fast train to Ballarat which wasn't fast, Myki, desal plant, north-south pipeline, inability to properly fund public transport, mismanagement of hospitals and ambulance services, decline of our 'soft' police force, bad legislation on abortion, bad legislation on freedom of speech) ... it still wasn't enough for me to want to turn them out if Baillieu was what I would get in return ... almost, but not quite.
Wow, one wonders what it would have taken, policy-wise?


What changed my mind?

Labor's attack ads which went for the man and not the ball.
On a chess site, could we please change the metaphor to "man and not the board"? ;)


They looked completely desperate and devoid of integrity. That's what changed my vote back to the Libs.
But in one sense, your reasoning is a case of man rather than ball/board.

Kevin Bonham
30-11-2010, 11:13 AM
Interesting that despite the perception of Baillieu as a left-Lib he still won. Part of the reason he won was that he was seen as moderate and unthreatening. I think a more "conservative" Lib leader would have lost, but we will never know for sure.

Kevin Bonham
01-12-2010, 08:31 PM
45-43 firming as the extremely likely result now.

In the Upper House on the current figures it could well be 21-17-2 with a Coalition majority. There are three close contests involving the Coalition (W Metro vs the Greens, N Metro vs Mayne, N Vic vs Country Alliance) and on the current figures they could well win them all. However more votes to be added could change these pictures.

Capablanca-Fan
03-12-2010, 08:29 AM
Even the Greens’ heartland is souring on Labor — and the Greens (http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/even_the_greens_heartland_is_souring_on_labor_and_ the_greens/)
Andrew Bolt
Thursday, December 02, 2010 at 11:04am

Even in Tasmania, Labor is on the nose - and the Greens, increasingly, too:

SUPPORT for the Tasmanian Labor Party and the minority government partners the Greens has collapsed, according to a new poll.
According to the EMRS poll, released on Wednesday, just 23 per cent of Tasmanians will vote Labor at the next election, a drop of six percentage points since the last poll was taken in August.

The Greens’ support fell three points to 20 per cent, its lowest in any of the five polls taken this year.

The Liberals were the big winners, climbing five points to 35 per cent, while leader Will Hodgman’s rating as preferred premier surged to 39 per cent.

Mr Hodgman now enjoys a 16 per cent lead over Premier David Bartlett, whose own rating fell four points to just 23 per cent.

Labor leads a minority government with Greens support in Tasmania, after both they and the Liberals claimed 10 seats in the state’s lower house at the March 20 poll.

At this rate, the Greens could soon eclipse Labor as the leading party of the Left. If this doesn’t finally galvanise Labor into treating the Greens as the enemy, rather than its finer self, it deserves to slide into oblivion.

Kevin Bonham
03-12-2010, 11:36 AM
Bolt quotes some very sloppy reporting by the Australian which says:


According to the EMRS poll, released on Wednesday, just 23 per cent of Tasmanians will vote Labor at the next election, a drop of six percentage points since the last poll was taken in August.

This claim by the Australian is rubbish for two reasons. Firstly, EMRS nearly always has an extremely high undecided rate and in this case the undecided rate is 19. Past elections show that the undecided voters tend to vote only for major parties. In the 2006 election they virtually all voted Labor and in the 2010 election they split about 60-40. You cannot say that only 23% will vote Labor when 19% say they are undecided.

Secondly the question asked by the poll isn't even who you would vote for in the next election. It is who you would vote for if an election was held now.

Bolt says:


At this rate, the Greens could soon eclipse Labor as the leading party of the Left.

But this isn't likely in a hurry because the poll makes the Greens look much closer to Labor than they are because of the undecided factor mentioned above. This was seen in the leadup to the 2010 Tas election. The February 2010 poll headline rate showed Labor on 23 and the Greens on 22 with 23% undecided. The election result a month and a bit later showed Labor on 37 with the Greens still on 22 - because the "undecideds" don't vote Green.

(I don't blame Bolt for all this. I blame EMRS because their polling is not very good and they report a "headline" rate which differs from that reported by other pollsters.)

As for the supposed drop in the Green vote it isn't statistically significant. Their other readings this year have been 22s, 23s and 24s and now 20. Doesn't mean anything yet.

Incidentally the May 2010 poll was worse for Labor than this one (they were "behind" the Greens and 15 points behind the Liberals) then they had a quite good poll in August 2010 and now this rather bad one - lot of bouncing around going on at the moment. Bartlett's preferred premier ratings are his worst ever but preferred premier is a silly indicator anyway.

I have some analysis of the latest poll up at the bottom of an article largely about Victoria and Labor's current problems here:

http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php?/weblog/article/labors-late-swing-curse/

Igor_Goldenberg
03-12-2010, 02:47 PM
Baillieu decision to put Greens last was not only principled and long-term strategically correct, it brilliantly proved to be a tactical success as well.
Apart from delivering office, it might signal (hopefully!) a start of Greens decline.

Oh and a promise (at eleventh hour) of stamp duty cut might have been another factor:D :D

Igor_Goldenberg
03-12-2010, 03:54 PM
Perhaps in the circumstances Victorian Labor may take solace in the fact that they will be competitive in the next election, unlike their Queensland and New South Wales counterparts.

According to conventional wisdom first term government with a slim majority usually increases it at the next election. Labor in Vic 2002 and QLD 2001 won in a landslide, NSW Labor in 1999 increased their majority considerably.

However, you might be right as conventional wisdom didn't hold at the last two (federal and Vic) election.

Kevin Bonham
03-12-2010, 04:05 PM
According to conventional wisdom first term government with a slim majority usually increases it at the next election. Labor in Vic 2002 and QLD 2001 won in a landslide, NSW Labor in 1999 increased their majority considerably.

It's interesting how this works - governments that just win from Opposition tend to win by more next time but governments that win big from Opposition almost always go backwards second time around.

Note that of the three above, Labor in Vic and Qld had actually been minority governments in their first term which is a big advantage. The government gets the narrative of saying it's done OK and asking the voters to let it rule in its own right.

Igor_Goldenberg
03-12-2010, 04:16 PM
It's interesting how this works - governments that just win from Opposition tend to win by more next time but governments that win big from Opposition almost always go backwards second time around.

It's hard to sustain a landslide majority (unless opposition is completely useless).

Kevin Bonham
03-12-2010, 05:29 PM
Latest Newspoll in the NSW shows Labor primary vote at a healthy 23%, while Coalition slipped to a measly 46%.

Even worse now in latest Morgan phone poll - 22 vs 53. (2PP 35-65).

How low can it go?

Unlike Tas when the government polls 22 in NSW it really means 22.

Kevin Bonham
03-12-2010, 10:28 PM
Daniel Andrews is the new Victorian Opposition leader.

Apart from his good performance on ABC on election night I don't know much about him. However it concerns me he has got the position through a faction deal.

Capablanca-Fan
07-12-2010, 06:21 AM
I have some analysis of the latest poll up at the bottom of an article largely about Victoria and Labor's current problems here:

http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php?/weblog/article/labors-late-swing-curse/
That's actually quite informative.:clap:

Kevin Bonham
14-12-2010, 03:57 PM
The magic button has been pressed and the Coalition has won control of the Victorian upper house, the final numbers being 21-16 with three Greens. The difference from the 21-17-2 I projected a while back was Colleen Hartland managed to save her seat, with a strong performance on absent votes putting her in a better position at the start of the count and then lots of leakage from Labor and exhausting votes from Labor's feeder parties doing the rest. In the end it wasn't that close, she won by just over 2000 votes.

Igor_Goldenberg
14-12-2010, 04:07 PM
Even worse now in latest Morgan phone poll - 22 vs 53. (2PP 35-65).

How low can it go?

Unlike Tas when the government polls 22 in NSW it really means 22.
While NSW Labor is almost certain to lose next election, it will poll much better as many angry voters will still vote Labor - but don't want to admit it. I'll be surprised if they don't manage 30%, partially at the expense of Greens.

Basil
14-12-2010, 08:59 PM
The magic button has been pressed ...

oZONGRYmGjg

antichrist
15-12-2010, 01:51 AM
While NSW Labor is almost certain to lose next election, it will poll much better as many angry voters will still vote Labor - but don't want to admit it. I'll be surprised if they don't manage 30%, partially at the expense of Greens.

And Labor supporters know how low state Labor is, yet that is an indiciation of how low we think the Liberals always are and always have been, since Robin Askin's days at least.

Farrell can't even agree with ethic classes for primary schools - what a spineless nobody.

Kevin Bonham
05-01-2011, 07:38 PM
WA Opposition Leader Eric Ripper is being challenged for the Labor leadership by Treasury spokesman Ben Wyatt. It is expected the leadership will be resolved next Tuesday.

Oepty
05-01-2011, 07:53 PM
WA Opposition Leader Eric Ripper is being challenged for the Labor leadership by Treasury spokesman Ben Wyatt. It is expected the leadership will be resolved next Tuesday.

I hear alot of his colleages are saying "Ben Why" at him.
Scott

Adamski
05-01-2011, 08:31 PM
NSW State election in late March should be interesting. As Igor said earlier, I expect Kenneally's Labour to lose but will they be massacred? Not sure yet.

antichrist
05-01-2011, 09:46 PM
NSW State election in late March should be interesting. As Igor said earlier, I expect Kenneally's Labour to lose but will they be massacred? Not sure yet.

they already only expect about 23% first preference votes, now this electricity schomozzle willl make it about 18%. Anyone of talent and integrity were got rid of.

Kevin Bonham
07-01-2011, 12:26 PM
Current indications are that the Wyatt challenge to Ripper is a non-event and may be withdrawn or fail to get the numbers for a spill.

Oepty
07-01-2011, 12:49 PM
Current indications are that the Wyatt challenge to Ripper is a non-event and may be withdrawn or fail to get the numbers for a spill.

So the general concensus is Eric is doing a ripper of a job
Scott

Garvinator
07-01-2011, 01:48 PM
NSW State election in late March should be interesting. As Igor said earlier, I expect Kenneally's Labour to lose but will they be massacred? Not sure yet.If there is ever an election where the government is guaranteed to lose, it is NSW. The fact that 23 Labor seat holders have said they are not re-contesting the next election gives you a very good idea of what Labor really thinks it stands.

The better question is, who will win more seats on percentage at their next election- NSW Labor or Qld Labor.

Now that is a tough one to work out :hmm:

Kevin Bonham
07-01-2011, 11:44 PM
The better question is, who will win more seats on percentage at their next election- NSW Labor or Qld Labor.

Now that is a tough one to work out :hmm:

They're both polling about as abysmally but Queensland Labor have more time to recover - or more time to get worse!

Queensland Labor got a very bad Newspoll today, about as bad as the Galaxy in late Nov. Labor primary 26. Rest here: http://ghostwhovotes.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/newspoll-110108-qld.pdf

antichrist
08-01-2011, 12:04 AM
NSW Labor remind me of Qld Nationals under BJ Petersen, but the BJP govt surprisingly was a lot more corrupt, probably coz they had more experience at it.

Good people in NSW Labor were drummed out, I can't remember that happening under the BJP Govt, they just did not have any decent people who spoke out to drum out, maybe a Qld Liberal was.

NSW Labor, at least before the election can see the writing on the wall and are self-cleansing. In both cases it was the ethnics who had lesser morals.

Garvinator
10-01-2011, 12:27 AM
NSW Labor remind me of Qld Nationals under BJ Petersen, but the BJP govt surprisingly was a lot more corrupt, probably coz they had more experience at it.Do not be too sure about that. It took a Fitzgerald inquiry to expose most of the corruption in the Joh Government.

I think we will only find out how corrupt and truly incompetent to the point of negligence this Bligh Government is once it loses the election and the inquiries are called by the LNP.

I would not be surprised if there are going to be further criminal charges down the line. The first reason being is that I find it beyond belief that Nuttall was acting alone and secondly that this Government has been so incompetent that I keep wondering if there is some kind of illegal behaviour going on that needs to be covered up, hence no sackings.

Garvinator
10-01-2011, 12:31 AM
They're both polling about as abysmally but Queensland Labor have more time to recover - or more time to get worse!

Queensland Labor got a very bad Newspoll today, about as bad as the Galaxy in late Nov. Labor primary 26. Rest here: http://ghostwhovotes.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/newspoll-110108-qld.pdf
On the note of polling and politics, I thought the floods could not have come at a worst time for the LNP as these types of major disasters allow Premiers and Prime Ministers the opportunity to look like they are doing something to look like true leaders in the times of crises.

But of Bligh can always be trusted to get it wrong, what does she do, goes to Sydney instead when some of her states towns are under water.

Just another free kick awarded against her and a serious one too. If it was a soccer game I would start to wonder how many red cards a player can accumulate.

Kevin Bonham
10-01-2011, 12:42 AM
On the note of polling and politics, I thought the floods could not have come at a worst time for the LNP as these types of major disasters allow Premiers and Prime Ministers the opportunity to look like they are doing something to look like true leaders in the times of crises.

An interesting thing there is that the bushfire response did not save Brumby and may even have contributed to his demise. I don't recall his own performance at the time being much attacked but perhaps it was too far from the election to help him, and the public just got jaded with all the post-event inquiry processes and filed it all under the general heading of a government that was going stale.

By the way the sample for the poll above was pre-flood.

Ian Murray
21-01-2011, 11:38 PM
...But of Bligh can always be trusted to get it wrong, what does she do, goes to Sydney instead when some of her states towns are under water.

Just another free kick awarded against her and a serious one too. If it was a soccer game I would start to wonder how many red cards a player can accumulate.
Looking back now on the floods crisis, the general view (http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/captain-bligh-steers-the-ship-in-face-of-adversity-20110112-19ob0.html) is that Bligh's leadership performance was outstanding. The recovery hard slog is still to come, but it will be interesting to see how much ground Bligh and her government have recovered so far.

Basil
22-01-2011, 03:09 AM
Looking back now on the floods crisis, the general view (http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/captain-bligh-steers-the-ship-in-face-of-adversity-20110112-19ob0.html) is that Bligh's leadership performance was outstanding.
I agree.


The recovery hard slog is still to come, but it will be interesting to see how much ground Bligh and her government have recovered so far.
I think a humanitarian role, or a leadership role w/ other people's policies would be a fantastic fit. Hew politics (as w/ all lefties) remain dudley.

Igor_Goldenberg
22-01-2011, 02:19 PM
Many leaders really shine when dealing with crisis(and Bligh's performance during the flood was indeed exemplary) . The irony is that those troubles are often caused by their policies/incompetence in the first place.
It's too early to jump to conclusion, but there are already allegations that the devastating result of the flood was avoidable. (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/queensland-floods/the-great-avoidable-flood-an-inquirys-challenge/story-fn7iwx3v-1225992644199)

Garvinator
22-01-2011, 03:30 PM
It is all going to be about the royal commission and possible law suits. It all great to come out and make glowing speeches, but another thing entirely when it all hits the fan.

Will the Bligh government look all so lovable if the reports from the royal commission start sounding bad for the Bligh government and they start to run for cover.

Also, there is still the ticking time bomb of no health pay crises resolution.

KB gives Brumby as a leader who looked good in a crises but was dumped at the next election. I will use an even bigger example, Churchill.

Ian Murray
22-01-2011, 10:20 PM
The focus of the commission of enquiry is most likely to be the operation of the Wivenhoe dam, which was designed and built under the Bjelke-Petersen Nationals government after the 1974-75 floods. 40% of floodwaters heading for Brisbane comes from the Wivenhoe catchment, and the dam is intended to hold back inflows which would otherwise cause flooding in Brisbane.

Obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, the dam failed to meet that goal. Its management plan has been reviewed every couple of years (by engineers and hydrologists, not government), but the effects of this 100-year flood event were not foreseen.

After the long drought, when storage fell to 17% of supply capacity, the dam was allowed to recover to 100% of supply capacity, with another 90% available as flood mitigation reserve. In the light of events, that policy may be questionable, but it's hard to really blame anyone for it.

Igor_Goldenberg
22-01-2011, 10:49 PM
.
After the long drought, when storage fell to 17% of supply capacity, the dam was allowed to recover to 100% of supply capacity, with another 90% available as flood mitigation reserve. In the light of events, that policy may be questionable, but it's hard to really blame anyone for it.

I agree that everyone is a genius in hindsight and it was hard to predict such a devastating flood. However, there is a real possibility that Wivenhoe operators allowed not 100% of supply capacity, but well above it before letting water out.

Ian Murray
22-01-2011, 11:01 PM
I agree that everyone is a genius in hindsight and it was hard to predict such a devastating flood. However, there is a real possibility that Wivenhoe operators allowed not 100% of supply capacity, but well above it before letting water out.
Of course - its total capacity, including flood mitigation, is 190%. Things only got serious when the inflow kept exceeding releases due to the non-stop drenching rain. The water got within 1m of the top of the wall - a shade more and the emergency levees on top would have given way (as designed), allowing uncontrolled flow downstream

Garvinator
22-01-2011, 11:17 PM
The focus of the commission of enquiry is most likely to be the operation of the Wivenhoe dam, which was designed and built under the Bjelke-Petersen Nationals government after the 1974-75 floods. 40% of floodwaters heading for Brisbane comes from the Wivenhoe catchment, and the dam is intended to hold back inflows which would otherwise cause flooding in Brisbane.

Obviously, with the benefit of hindsight, the dam failed to meet that goal. Its management plan has been reviewed every couple of years (by engineers and hydrologists, not government), but the effects of this 100-year flood event were not foreseen.

After the long drought, when storage fell to 17% of supply capacity, the dam was allowed to recover to 100% of supply capacity, with another 90% available as flood mitigation reserve. In the light of events, that policy may be questionable, but it's hard to really blame anyone for it.
I think the royal commission needs one extra power to its terms, which was included in the terms for the Victorian Bushfires inquiry and that clause is that the commission has the power to explore any areas that it deems relevant to the floods.

This would then allow it to focus also on how the planning was undertaken for houses in flood plains.

Ian Murray
22-01-2011, 11:39 PM
I think the royal commission needs one extra power to its terms, which was included in the terms for the Victorian Bushfires inquiry and that clause is that the commission has the power to explore any areas that it deems relevant to the floods.

This would then allow it to focus also on how the planning was undertaken for houses in flood plains.
The terms of reference (http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/environment/weather/queenslands-flood-inquiry-the-terms-of-reference-20110117-19tv7.html) look OK to me, bearing in mind the time factor. The commission is required to complete its inquiry and submit its final report within 12 months.

Garvinator
23-01-2011, 12:27 AM
The nightmare of Qld Health returns. http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/sunday-mail/health-bosses-put-paperwork-before-flood-victims/story-e6frep2f-1225992933463


HEARTLESS Queensland Health bureaucrats demanded staff explain why they were not at work during Brisbane's devastating floods and to provide photos proving they were victims.

While Premier Anna Bligh was calling on businesses to show compassion, Queensland Health was ordering staff to justify their absence.

The directive was the latest kick in the teeth for thousands of hard-working Queensland Health staff, many of whom were underpaid during the bungled pay system rollout last year.

Health Minister Paul Lucas yesterday said the memo was an insult, and the bureaucrat who issued it had been disciplined.

"This is one of the most insensitive and stupid emails to be sent to staff that I have seen in my ministerial career," he said.

"It is just so offensive to Queensland Health staff who go above and beyond the call."

The memo, sent on January 10, reminded workers to provide firm evidence - including photos - to substantiate "flood leave".

"What attempts were made to use any other route to work, what attempts were made for the staff member to work at another Government location (as per the policy).

"If a photo can be supplied this will help to simplify the approval process."

Thousands of Queensland Health employees could have been forced to submit paperwork for paid leave while they were trying to save themselves and their homes.

The memo remained in place while residents were being warned to prepare for a flood "bigger than 1974" and while the community rallied to help victims.

On January 14, Premier Anna Bligh urged the community to work together and insurers to have a heart.

"I'd call on all of our insurance companies to act with compassion in the face of this event," she said.

"It is not in the interest of any of our community, including those companies, for us to stall and delay the recovery and a bit of flexibility and compassion would be a very useful contribution to this event by those companies."

When contacted by The Sunday Mail, Queensland Health's deputy director-general of human resource services, John Cairns, admitted the memo went too far.

"The memo referred to was not appropriate, and was retracted by its author on direction of the acting DCEO earlier this week," he said.

"Unfortunately, the memo had been sent despite being contrary to the position taken by the director-general and district management.

"QH would like to thank its hardworking staff - those who were personally directly affected by the flood, as well as those staff members who have gone above the call of duty serving Queenslanders in their time of greatest need."

While many employees were reluctant to speak out openly about their individual situations in fear of retribution, highly-placed sources said Queensland Health had set ridiculous standards for staff affected by the flood.

However, The Sunday Mail understands Queensland Health management has been disappointed by the attitude of some staff who were on holidays and had demanded their leave be credited because some other employees rostered on did not have to go to work.

Ian Murray
23-01-2011, 11:40 AM
While Premier Anna Bligh was calling on businesses to show compassion, Queensland Health was ordering staff to justify their absence.

The directive was the latest kick in the teeth for thousands of hard-working Queensland Health staff, many of whom were underpaid during the bungled pay system rollout last year.

Health Minister Paul Lucas yesterday said the memo was an insult, and the bureaucrat who issued it had been disciplined.

"This is one of the most insensitive and stupid emails to be sent to staff that I have seen in my ministerial career," he said.

"It is just so offensive to Queensland Health staff who go above and beyond the call."
Unbelievable! Some HR clown at RBH with shit for brains

Kevin Bonham
23-01-2011, 03:15 PM
Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett has resigned after a little over two and a half years in the job and will stand down as an MP at the next election.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/tasmanian-premier-david-bartlett-to-announce-resignation/story-e6frf7l6-1225993138646

Claiming the standard cliche: "family reasons".

He will almost certainly be replaced by his deputy, Lara Giddings, 38, who will be Tasmania's first female Premier and first female Labor leader if so.

Kevin Bonham
23-01-2011, 03:21 PM
New Galaxy for NSW: 66-34 to Coalition with primaries splitting 51-20. But even that 2PP flatters Labor because close to half the Greens voters (Greens polling 15) won't direct preferences.

Capablanca-Fan
23-01-2011, 04:32 PM
Unbelievable! Some HR clown at RBH with shit for brains
You're not wrong.

Igor_Goldenberg
23-01-2011, 05:47 PM
Of course - its total capacity, including flood mitigation, is 190%. Things only got serious when the inflow kept exceeding releases due to the non-stop drenching rain. The water got within 1m of the top of the wall - a shade more and the emergency levees on top would have given way (as designed), allowing uncontrolled flow downstream
That's the point. If they started slow release when water level exceeded 100%(not reached 190% level), they would not have to release water at such devastating rate later on.

Garvinator
23-01-2011, 06:14 PM
That's the point. If they started slow release when water level exceeded 100%(not reached 190% level), they would not have to release water at such devastating rate later on.They were releasing water when it got to about 105%, but not at anywhere near the rate required to keep up with the rising water levels. This meant that when the dam started to fill in a hurry, they had to mass release water to prevent the dam from over flowing completely.

One comment I have read about the flood mitigation design of the dam was that most of the rules for how the dam is meant to operate were put in place in the late 70's, early 80's. When those policies were being written and enacted, they expected that the Wollfdene dam would be built and so the assumptions about water release were based on that.

When the Wollfdene dam was not built, the designs of the Wivenhoe were not changed.

Ian Murray
23-01-2011, 07:58 PM
They were releasing water when it got to about 105%, but not at anywhere near the rate required to keep up with the rising water levels. This meant that when the dam started to fill in a hurry, they had to mass release water to prevent the dam from over flowing completely.
That's right. The flood control committee is required under the rules of operation to predict inflows in the catchment area and downstream (Bremer R, Lockyer Ck) to determine the release levels. The weather was so extreme that predictions could not keep up with events

One comment I have read about the flood mitigation design of the dam was that most of the rules for how the dam is meant to operate were put in place in the late 70's, early 80's. When those policies were being written and enacted, they expected that the Wollfdene dam would be built and so the assumptions about water release were based on that.

When the Wollfdene dam was not built, the designs of the Wivenhoe were not changed.
The operating rules have been reviewed and updated many times since, presumably factoring in the absence of Wolfdene.

The Wolfdene proposal is another example of community and political pressure closing down a dam project. Like airports and prisons, everyone agrees that we need to have dams, as along as they're built someplace else, NIMBY.

Igor_Goldenberg
23-01-2011, 09:17 PM
The Wolfdene proposal is another example of community and political pressure closing down a dam project. Like airports and prisons, everyone agrees that we need to have dams, as along as they're built someplace else, NIMBY.
Good point. However, I doubt Greens support any dams at all (as well as airports and prisons).

ER
23-01-2011, 10:06 PM
Are family obligations the real reason behind Mr Bartlett's resignation?

Kevin Bonham
24-01-2011, 01:16 AM
Are family obligations the real reason behind Mr Bartlett's resignation?

The general rule is that they are never the real reason. (Bracks perhaps the exception that proves the rule.) Bartlett had a great passion and ambition to be Premier when he took the job on, an ambition that's not consistent with throwing in the towel after such a short period. The polls here are not reliable but for what it's worth his most recent poll was in most respects the worst since he came to office. I think it's quite likely that he did not have the numbers (and hasn't since the last election) and Giddings was going to roll him.

By the way Giddings will be the first Premier who is younger than me (albeit by less than a year). As a commenter on Tasmanian politics I find that quite amusing.

ER
24-01-2011, 02:13 AM
thanks for the info and LOL :lol: about the age thingy! :)

Capablanca-Fan
24-01-2011, 04:33 AM
That's right. The flood control committee is required under the rules of operation to predict inflows in the catchment area and downstream (Bremer R, Lockyer Ck) to determine the release levels. The weather was so extreme that predictions could not keep up with events

The operating rules have been reviewed and updated many times since, presumably factoring in the absence of Wolfdene.

The Wolfdene proposal is another example of community and political pressure closing down a dam project. Like airports and prisons, everyone agrees that we need to have dams, as along as they're built someplace else, NIMBY.
Here is some forgotten history, that if it had been better known, might have saved Australia from having Chairman KRudd as premier:
Greg Hunt: Rudd recipe no good in a crisis (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/greg-hunt-rudd-recipe-no-good-in-a-crisis/story-e6frg6zo-1111112770784)
The Labor leader's social democracy ethos would cripple Australia
From: The Australian, 3 January 2007


IN December 1989 the first act of Kevin Rudd, the new chief of staff to Queensland's incoming Labor premier, was to cancel plans for the Wolfdene dam. This was despite expert advice that such a dam would be needed for southeast Queensland in the early 21st century.

The experts were dead right. With approximately 70 per cent population growth in southeast Queensland in the intervening period, Brisbane is paying the price for one of the worst infrastructure decisions in modern Australian history. Wolfdene dam would not have changed rainfall patterns but it would have allowed for perhaps 15 years of accumulated water storage, which in turn would have dramatically altered Queensland's capacity to deal with the inevitable ebb and flow of rainfall.

While the Wolfdene dam is one practical example of how Rudd would govern—opting for short-term trendiness rather than showing long-term courage and planning—more deeply, it is a pointer to the failed philosophy he wants to impose on Australia: social democracy.

The impact is simple: job losses and a continued failure of water infrastructure. …

Desmond
24-01-2011, 02:58 PM
They were releasing water when it got to about 105%, but not at anywhere near the rate required to keep up with the rising water levels. This meant that when the dam started to fill in a hurry, they had to mass release water to prevent the dam from over flowing completely.
If you're releasing water as fast as it comes in, then you're not mitigating anything are you?

Kevin Bonham
24-01-2011, 03:14 PM
Polling on approval ratings of leaders' handling of the flood situation shows that:

* Just about everyone thinks Anna Bligh and Campbell Newman are doing well.

* People generally think Ted Baillieu is doing well or at least OK, but this is probably lifted by him being in honeymoon phase.

* NSW voters generally think Keneally is doing badly or at best OK, but this is probably tainted by her government being dead in the water.

* Opinion on Gillard's performance leans towards her doing well rather than poorly (42-23). This surprised me as I think the way she has communicated about the situation has been rather odd and I would have expected more people to have been put off by it.

* Opinion on Abbott's performance is close to even with a lot of "average" or "don't know" response and a slight negative lean of those with a view (19-32).

Desmond
24-01-2011, 03:17 PM
Polling on approval ratings of leaders' handling of the flood situation shows that:

* Just about everyone thinks Anna Bligh and Campbell Newman are doing well.
I'm just waiting for Campbell's solution to the dam problems; to dig a tunnel under it.

Ian Murray
24-01-2011, 11:05 PM
...* Opinion on Gillard's performance leans towards her doing well rather than poorly (42-23). This surprised me as I think the way she has communicated about the situation has been rather odd and I would have expected more people to have been put off by it.
I was unimpressed with her rather wooden performances, vis-a-vis Bligh's caring, strong and committed leadership. Gillard's promise of $1 million in Federal aid in the first day or two of the crisis was also quite strange - it was obvious even then that the damage bill would run into hundreds of millions The latest figure I've heard bandied about is $20 billion.

Garvinator
25-01-2011, 01:25 AM
I'm just waiting for Campbell's solution to the dam problems; to dig a tunnel under it.And to toll it as well.

Ian Murray
25-01-2011, 01:05 PM
I'm just waiting for Campbell's solution to the dam problems; to dig a tunnel under it.

And to toll it as well.
:)
On a serious note, it was interesting to see Newman's approach as a civil engineer and ex-Army officer - solving a series of topographical and logistical problems

Paul Pisasale, Ipswich mayor, was also impressive in a regional community leader sort of fashion

Oepty
06-02-2011, 06:24 PM
Kevin Foley has resigned his positions as SA Treasurer and Deputy Leader. Senior ministers Paul Holloway and Michael Wright had also resigned from the SA cabinet, although Wright was asked to resign. Jack Snelling is favourite to be the new treasurer while John Rau is favourite to become deputy premier.
Scott

Kevin Bonham
19-02-2011, 08:43 PM
The definition of political desperation: pushpolling in a seat where you need a 22.3% swing to lose. (http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/nsw-election-2011/labors-dirty-tricks-in-campaign-poll/story-fn7q4q9f-1226008412489)

Igor_Goldenberg
19-02-2011, 09:39 PM
The definition of political desperation: pushpolling in a seat where you need a 22.3% swing to lose. (http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/nsw-election-2011/labors-dirty-tricks-in-campaign-poll/story-fn7q4q9f-1226008412489)
It's a very small margin, isn't it?

Igor_Goldenberg
19-02-2011, 09:42 PM
Looks like Baillieu government is procrastinating. They are still reviewing MyKi, desalination plant, etc. I think three month is sufficient to make at least some decisions.

ER
19-02-2011, 10:38 PM
Looks like Baillieu government is procrastinating. They are still reviewing MyKi, desalination plant, etc. I think three month is sufficient to make at least some decisions.
Do you think it's easy? We are talking about a bottomless pit of taxpayers' money here and that's only for court costs!

Igor_Goldenberg
19-02-2011, 11:05 PM
Do you think it's easy? We are talking about a bottomless pit of taxpayers' money here and that's only for court costs!
You don't seem to be concerned by the billions down the drain if Gillards does the pouring.
And no, it's not easy, but they have to make a decision, and three months must be sufficient.

ER
20-02-2011, 12:52 AM
You don't seem to be concerned by the billions down the drain if Gillards does the pouring.
And no, it's not easy, but they have to make a decision, and three months must be sufficient.

How many times do I have to tell you? Do not confuse Federal and State politics and policies! And leave Julia alone, she 's doing fine! The Health deal was fixed no sweat and the only drains I can see is in Tony's front bench! GO JULIE! ;)

Kevin Bonham
20-02-2011, 02:53 PM
Anna Bligh has recorded an approval rating increase from 25 points (Galaxy, November) and 24 points (Newspoll, Oct-Dec) to 60 points (Galaxy now) following her more or less universally acclaimed handling of the flood/cyclone crises. This appears to be by far the largest such increase for a leader in Australian polling history. The Courier Mail will publish state voting intention results tomorrow and it will be interesting to see how much of it rubs off on her party, which appears to be clearing the decks for an early election, possibly in August. It should be remembered that prior to the floods this government was on death row so don't assume that the flood bounce is necessarily going to save it. Might save a lot of seats though.

Igor_Goldenberg
20-02-2011, 07:55 PM
And leave Julia alone, she 's doing fine!
... pouring money down the drain.

Kevin Bonham
21-02-2011, 12:49 PM
The Courier Mail will publish state voting intention results tomorrow and it will be interesting to see how much of it rubs off on her party, which appears to be clearing the decks for an early election, possibly in August.

Not enough apparently, LNP still comfortably leading 55-45.

Kevin Bonham
25-02-2011, 08:27 PM
Tassie Labor government has so many problems that it didn't even get a honeymoon bounce from the switch to Lara Giddings and in fact has just recorded its worst poll ever, trailing the Liberals by 16 points (which is about enough to lose an election outright even in our system!)

Igor_Goldenberg
26-02-2011, 09:34 AM
Tassie Labor government has so many problems that it didn't even get a honeymoon bounce from the switch to Lara Giddings and in fact has just recorded its worst poll ever, trailing the Liberals by 16 points (which is about enough to lose an election outright even in our system!)
How Greens are faring?

Kevin Bonham
26-02-2011, 04:40 PM
How Greens are faring?

They're still polling fairly strongly. Actually EMRS has them on the same base vote as Labor for the first time, but that is meaningless because EMRS has a very high undecided rate, and undecided voters don't vote Green.

Igor_Goldenberg
26-02-2011, 06:23 PM
They're still polling fairly strongly. Actually EMRS has them on the same base vote as Labor for the first time, but that is meaningless because EMRS has a very high undecided rate, and undecided voters don't vote Green.
What are the latest poll figures? Please excuse my ignorance, but what is EMRS?
IIRC, last year election was something like 40-40-20?

Kevin Bonham
26-02-2011, 06:44 PM
What are the latest poll figures?

On the question most comparable to mainland pollsters it is Liberal 39 Labor 23 Green 21 Other 2 with 15 "undecided". But EMRS publishes a different question as a headline rate so their headline rate is 36-20-20-2 with 23 "undecided".

In reality most of the "undecided"s are major party voters, or will be at election time. They don't vote Green. So maybe the poll is really saying something like 47-31-20-2.


Please excuse my ignorance, but what is EMRS?

Tasmania's only regular pollster and not a very good one. http://www.emrs.com.au/


IIRC, last year election was something like 40-40-20?

Close enough. 37-39-22.

Garvinator
26-02-2011, 06:44 PM
Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS)

Oepty
28-02-2011, 04:15 PM
SA Independent Bob Such cannot give up and is going to try and take his fight against a speeding fine to the High Court after losing cases in the Magistrates Court, Supreme Court and the full bench of the Supreme Court.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/8924435/mp-to-fight-on-against-speeding-fine/
Scott

Igor_Goldenberg
02-03-2011, 09:42 AM
Nationals polling shows Rob Oakeshott's support is shot (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/nationals-polling-shows-rob-oakeshotts-support-is-shot/story-fn59niix-1226014412867)

It'll be interesting to see to which extend dissatisfaction with Oakeshott and Windsor will affect NSW independents holding the state seats inside their federal division.

BTW, there are some people in Oakeshott electorate that never heard of him.

Capablanca-Fan
07-03-2011, 11:45 AM
Labor 'chiks home to roost (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labor-chiks-home-to-roost/story-fn59niix-1226016758756)
Neil Lawrence From: The Australian March 07, 2011


But the fact remains there are tens of thousands of people in this election who will for the first time in their lives vote against Labor.

This is bad news for Julia Gillard and the federal party. Marketers fight very hard for brand loyalty. Once the door to changing behaviour is opened, there is trouble ahead. It is so much easier to vote against Labor the second time.

Igor_Goldenberg
07-03-2011, 12:35 PM
Quite a few people at some stage in their life vote against Labor for the first time - and never vote for them afterwards. The reverse is much rare, and it explains why Coalition seem to have a higher support in the older age bracket.

It's called maturing:lol: :lol: :lol:

Igor_Goldenberg
07-03-2011, 12:49 PM
Labor 'chiks home to roost (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labor-chiks-home-to-roost/story-fn59niix-1226016758756)
Neil Lawrence From: The Australian March 07, 2011


But the fact remains there are tens of thousands of people in this election who will for the first time in their lives vote against Labor.

This is bad news for Julia Gillard and the federal party. Marketers fight very hard for brand loyalty. Once the door to changing behaviour is opened, there is trouble ahead. It is so much easier to vote against Labor the second time.

I find the following claim dubious:
"But it will reinvent itself. A decade, the likely minimum time that Labor will be out of power, is a long time, and there are still people of goodwill and intelligence who want to see it fixed."

A decade? They very well might be competitive at the next election.
Winning in a landslide from the opposition gives a very high probability of two terms, but anything beyond that has to be fought for.

Kevin Bonham
07-03-2011, 12:56 PM
I also think "A decade, the likely minimum time that Labor will be out of power" is overstating it and agree with Igor that more or less no matter how bad the drubbing, the second election after it is generally competitive.


It's called maturing

I think personal economic transition and becoming more conservative with age would explain a fair number of those. Also the Laura Norder factor - elderly voters tend to be more concerned about being victims of crime.

Capablanca-Fan
07-03-2011, 02:36 PM
I also think "A decade, the likely minimum time that Labor will be out of power" is overstating it and agree with Igor that more or less no matter how bad the drubbing, the second election after it is generally competitive.
True; that's happened so many times. Although the QLD opposition never recovered from Beattie's rout of Borbidge in 2001.


I think personal economic transition and becoming more conservative with age would explain a fair number of those. Also the Laura Norder factor - elderly voters tend to be more concerned about being victims of crime.
But then, why do they become more conservative with age? How about: exposure to the real world and human nature as it really is—flawed from day one as Sowell put it (below), so they are less likely to put their trust in more politicians and bureaucrats, and less likely to make excuses for scumbags:

5KHdhrNhh88&feature=player_embedded

Capablanca-Fan
07-03-2011, 02:37 PM
Quite a few people at some stage in their life vote against Labor for the first time - and never vote for them afterwards. The reverse is much rare, and it explains why Coalition seem to have a higher support in the older age bracket.

It's called maturing:lol: :lol: :lol:
Indeed. In my case, it was my second vote in my life (my first vote was for NZ Labour, I'm embarrassed to admit).

Igor_Goldenberg
08-03-2011, 08:57 AM
When I first voted in Australian election, I was close to 30, so no young Labor voting. I know many people who vote Liberals that used to vote Labor when younger.
On the other hand, with all the hindsight knowledge my hypothetical vote in 1983 election would go to Labor.

Igor_Goldenberg
08-03-2011, 08:58 AM
Back to state election.
I have a feeling (not backed by facts or experience!) that disastrous polling for NSW Labor is caused by anger and resentment, and actual voting on the day will be higher then the poll shows (though not enough to save them).

Kevin Bonham
08-03-2011, 09:19 AM
Thread split

Crime/deterrence/human nature thread drift moved to Sowell thread.

among the bits moved still directly relevant to politics, in reply to Jono's


Indeed. In my case, it was my second vote in my life (my first vote was for NZ Labour, I'm embarrassed to admit).

I wrote



Could be argued mine was worse, it was for the Australian Democrats.

Jono responded


Heheh ;) At least in my case, it helped pave the way for Rogernomics, bringing much-needed economic freedom to NZ, but I can't take credit since I didn't know that at the time.

Garvinator
09-03-2011, 01:36 AM
Now here is a contender for the NSW upper house :whistle: http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/former-one-nation-leader-pauline-hanson-runs-in-nsw-poll-as-independent/story-e6freon6-1226018016158

Oepty
13-03-2011, 01:16 PM
Less than 2 weeks to go, it should be fun.
Scott

Oepty
17-03-2011, 10:32 PM
The blood bath is coming, politicans getting kicked out, it is going to be great fun watching them squirm
Scott

Oepty
18-03-2011, 08:20 AM
What is she going to say, what can she say when it is all gone?
Scott

Kevin Bonham
18-03-2011, 09:49 AM
What is she going to say, what can she say when it is all gone?

"Excellent, we can hold our caucus meetings in a people-mover now."

Keneally knew it was a stuffed government when she took over. I don't think she should be unprepared for the result.

Oepty
18-03-2011, 10:00 AM
"Excellent, we can hold our caucus meetings in a people-mover now."

Keneally knew it was a stuffed government when she took over. I don't think she should be unprepared for the result.

Yes she is in the same situation that Lyn Arnold was in 1993 in SA, no hope whatsoever. I wonder which poor soul they are going to put up to do TV coverage. You would really know you are not liked if you get nominated.
Scott

Garvinator
20-03-2011, 03:04 PM
Yes she is in the same situation that Lyn Arnold was in 1993 in SA, no hope whatsoever. I wonder which poor soul they are going to put up to do TV coverage. You would really know you are not liked if you get nominated.Seems more like they looked around the room and decided to put the prettiest face they had in the room on camera :lol:

Kevin Bonham
21-03-2011, 11:25 PM
Still no change in the polling pattern in NSW; general expectation is that it won't be a complete wipeout of the Labor ranks but they'll be doing well if they hold 20 seats.

http://www.tallyroom.com.au/9264 presents some amusing speculation about Christian Democrat and Liberal preferencing behaviour. (That site is written by Ben Raue, a psephologist who is also a Green but who I don't generally find to be Green-biased in his analyses).

We have some good Legislative Council stoushes coming up here in Tassie on May 7th. One of them is for the seat of Rumney (Hobart eastern shore - mostly satellite suburb and rural demographics) where government minister Lin Thorp is facing opposition from:

* the former children's commissioner who she sacked
* the sister of a senator from her own party - this candidate quit the party a few weeks ago and is running as a more-Labor-than-thou "independent"
* a well-known local Liberal who is running as an "independent" while recycling his signs from the state election where he ran as an endorsed Liberal.

Thorp is considered very beatable as she has had a horrid time in the last few years. Probably the defining incident has been a terrible situation in which a 12-year-old girl was prostituted against her will to around 100 men - probably a result of a gutless Labor backflip on sex industry reform laws several years ago.

Garvinator
22-03-2011, 11:20 AM
Interesting situation up here in Qld.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/brisbane-lord-mayor-campbell-newman-to-enter-state-politics-lnp-john-paul-langbroek-leadership-crisis/story-e6freoof-1226025692667

Current Brisbane Lord Mayor, Campbell Newman (Lib) has decided to move into state politics and is seeking pre-selection for the seat of Ashgrove (Inner north west Brisbane seat).

The seat is currently held by Kate Jones (Labor and current environment minister).

Kevin Bonham
22-03-2011, 05:17 PM
Really bizarre situation with Langbroek quitting the leadership immediately. I understand the desire to draft Newman as leader but the usual way this sort of thing is done is to just find the guy a safe seat somewhere and get the incumbent to resign, thus putting Newman in parliament via a by-election and making him parliamentary leader before the poll.

pappubahry
22-03-2011, 06:46 PM
Really bizarre situation with Langbroek quitting the leadership immediately. I understand the desire to draft Newman as leader but the usual way this sort of thing is done is to just find the guy a safe seat somewhere and get the incumbent to resign, thus putting Newman in parliament via a by-election and making him parliamentary leader before the poll.
It's certainly an ambitious way of going about things - he's taking on a minister with a 7% margin. I know Newman's popular, but it would be a spectacular embarrassment if after a year of campaigning, he failed to win Ashgrove. :lol:

Kevin Bonham
23-03-2011, 12:18 AM
the usual way this sort of thing is done is to just find the guy a safe seat somewhere and get the incumbent to resign, thus putting Newman in parliament via a by-election and making him parliamentary leader before the poll.

Oh dear. Apparently the LNP hierarchy actually tried this and screwed it up. If that is true then the question that the Labor spinners must have a field day with is: if this mob can't even orchestrate the stock-standard drafting of a popular new leader into parliament then how the hell can they govern the state?

They'd better hope Labor's completely sunk back into the mire as far as general public support goes close to the election because if Labor are even vaguely competitive come the campaign then watch out. Of course if Labor is terminally on the nose it won't matter and the move may even be (or appear) vindicated.

And speaking of polling, how will the pollsters do approval and preferred-premier ratings, will they do them for Newman or for Seeney? Can they ask voters if they approve of how Newman is doing his job as Leader of the Opposition when he isn't even in that job? Confusing times ahead.

Garvinator
23-03-2011, 12:31 AM
Oh dear. Apparently the LNP hierarchy actually tried this and screwed it up. If that is true then the question that the Labor spinners must have a field day with is: if this mob can't even orchestrate the stock-standard drafting of a popular new leader into parliament then how the hell can they govern the state?The LNP bosses have been attempting to get Newman to make the jump to lead the state LNP for quite a while. Recently it was revealed they were attempting to get Bruce Flegg to retire at the next election and allowing Campbell Newman to run in his seat of Moggill, which is a safe Liberal seat.

But as Bruce Flegg refused and it created so many tensions inside the party, the bosses and Newman were left to try and find a seat for pre-selection, hence they chose Ashgrove and Kate Jones seat.

I would love to know why the LNP bosses chose that seat?

While Newman is popular for being Brisbane Lord Mayor, I am not sure how popular he is outside of Brisbane, or even how many people are aware of him in regional Qld.

If the LNP wins the next election and Newman is Premier, everyone across the state should look out for toll roads coming their way :P

Qlders are always known for doing things a little bit different to the rest of country, this is just another example :lol:

I wonder what effect this will have on the Brisbane city council situation as well :hmm: in both situations of Newman winning the seat of Ashgrove or if he fails and has to go back to being Brisbane Lord Mayor.

Kevin Bonham
23-03-2011, 12:37 AM
I wonder what effect this will have on the Brisbane city council situation as well :hmm: in both situations of Newman winning the seat of Ashgrove or if he fails and has to go back to being Brisbane Lord Mayor.

If he resigns far enough into his term his party can just appoint his deputy as the new Mayor so that's fine. If he fails and wants to go back to being mayor when he's already been replaced that gets messy.

Garvinator
23-03-2011, 12:49 AM
If he resigns far enough into his term his party can just appoint his deputy as the new Mayor so that's fine. If he fails and wants to go back to being mayor when he's already been replaced that gets messy.Campbell Newman was saying that if he resigns before 12 months before when the next council election is due, then his deputy is appointed. If he resigns after then, it is a new election.

What I was more implying was about the politics of either Newman just dumping the voters of Brisbane, or if he fails to win Ashgrove and wants to return to Lord Mayor, how that will be perceived?

Messy times ahead of course. When will Bligh call the election? That could be a new poll question. When will Bligh call the next Qld election :)

Trent Parker
23-03-2011, 01:09 AM
lol

according to http://www2.sportspunter.com/betting?competitionid=59&function=tournamentodds&tournament=NSW+Election+Seat-Wollondilly&websiteid=0&oddsType=&swif=&whitelabel=#

Phil Costa is going to lose his seat and LIB'S Jai Rowell is at unbackable odds to win Wollodilly. (which is the seat I'm in)

lol might put a fiver on "other" at $51

I'm traditionally a lib voter but I dont like Jai Rowell....

The seat of Wollondilly includes the Shire of Wollondilly plus the southern suburbs of Campbelltown City. Jai Rowell is a former/current Campbelltown city councillor who from comments I've seen gives me the impression that he doesn't give a stuff about things past campbelltown.
.
I dont like Phil Costa.... He has been nothing but a labor Puppet since he won the seat at the last election

I think my votes going to go to Judy Hannan who is a current Wollondilly Council Member, aparently has ties to the nats but running as an independent.

Kevin Bonham
24-03-2011, 12:48 AM
Queensland state Newspoll average for the last three months says that Labor were leading (!!) 52-48 before Langbroek was rolled by a guy who isn't even in the parliament. The internal polling used to justify ousting Langbroek had the LNP still well in front and supposedly leading 66-34 if Newman was leader - which again goes to show that internal polling released to justify a leadership transition should be treated with great scepticism.

Once again we are seeing a debate about whether a political action is courageous or stupid. The default assumption in such cases should generally be "stupid" because that is what "courageous" in politics usually means. But we'll see. This kind of thing they are doing with Newman is actually fairly common in Canada, a classic case being John Turner who was prime minister for a few months in 1984 without actuallly being an MP at any stage during his reign. But in Australia, it's verging on unheard of.

Sportsbet have pulled their standard gimmick of paying out ahead of the result in NSW. However they have done this before in sporting fixtures and sometimes got it wrong so we shouldn't treat this PR gimmick as a sign they are really sure the Coalition must win.

Everyone else is though. :lol: The highest serious predictions for Labor I've seen have been in the 25 seat range. Couple of interesting predictions - Nick Greiner 19 seats for Labor, Graham Richardson 12 to 15 seats "tops" and a "slaughter of unimaginable proportions". From vaguely aware posters on blogs and so on there seem to be some who reckon Labor won't get above mid-teens and some who reckon low 20s. I saw one post amusingly speculating that there could be a "Shy Labor" voter factor. :lol:

pappubahry
24-03-2011, 09:17 AM
The highest serious predictions for Labor I've seen have been in the 25 seat range.
Bob Ellis doesn't count as serious? :lol:

Desmond
24-03-2011, 10:33 AM
IMO Can-do-Campbell is a bit of a twit, but let's face it they got nuthin better.

Kevin Bonham
24-03-2011, 10:33 AM
Bob Ellis doesn't count as serious? :lol:

Definitely not. :lol:

Ellis predicted Labor would win as a minority government back in January. Some of the assumptions in his prediction about events that would happen have turned out to be wrong, not that those events would have affected the NSW state election much anyway. I don't know if he's revisited it.

pappubahry
24-03-2011, 11:33 AM
I don't know if he's revisited it.
He wrote More ways Labor can win in New South Wales (http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/44230.html) on February 18. I don't know if he's since given up on them, but I'm kind of hoping for another wildly optimistic follow-up tomorrow....

Igor_Goldenberg
24-03-2011, 03:07 PM
Who is Bob Ellis? Is he some sort of comedian/entertainer? The article was quite funny.

Kevin Bonham
24-03-2011, 10:02 PM
Who is Bob Ellis? Is he some sort of comedian/entertainer?

Political clown would be pretty close to the mark. Writer and filmmaker who has also been a Labor speechwriter. Funny but deeply idiosyncratic. Public life one long shaggy-dog story. Screaming lefty. Even got his publisher sued for defo by Tony Abbott, Peter Costello and their wives and taken to the cleaners for $277K for one sentence.

antichrist
25-03-2011, 01:30 AM
Seems more like they looked around the room and decided to put the prettiest face they had in the room on camera :lol:

had nothing to do with looks, it was who would follow the disgraced factional bosses. Rees who she replaced was a decent guy re policy etc only he was from the wrong wing and was not a puppet of on the nose people.

Of who it was known about 15 years ago that certain ones were on the nose.

The trouble is all to do with business people joining the Labor party for their own ends, and also career professional politicians who don't have a history of labour workers struggle etc.

Igor_Goldenberg
25-03-2011, 09:11 AM
Political clown would be pretty close to the mark. Writer and filmmaker who has also been a Labor speechwriter. Funny but deeply idiosyncratic. Public life one long shaggy-dog story. Screaming lefty. Even got his publisher sued for defo by Tony Abbott, Peter Costello and their wives and taken to the cleaners for $277K for one sentence.
Yes, I remember that. I just read wikipedia entry on him. After reading quotes article (without knowing/remembering much of him) I thought it was mostly a satirical piece with a lot of "tongue-in-cheek" remarks. But maybe Ellis was indeed serious.
I am still won't be surprised if Labor polls about 30% on primary and 40% on 2PP. I predicted it some time ago, even though it might be too optimistic.

pappubahry
25-03-2011, 02:49 PM
Poor Bob gives up hope (http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/45610.html), though he carries on his fantasy for a few hundred words before accepting reality.

Even the subbie had a dig at him with the headline. "The earthquake-tsunami-meltdown-Gaddafi factor in the NSW election" :lol:

Kevin Bonham
25-03-2011, 07:35 PM
Ellis says:


In 2001 John Howard was on 40 per cent two party preferred and bound to be smashed.

It wasn't really that dramatic. In Newspoll at least Howard bottomed out at 43 that year; a 43, a 44 and two 45s were his worst 2PPs of that year (out of 26 polls).


The Loggers’ Revolt saved Howard in 2004, just three days out.

That's not true either. It just didn't swing that many seats.


1963 Menzies was gone for all money when JFK was killed, and he won re-election just six days later, and fifteen seats he was bound to lose.

Nor is that. Calwell was a man out of time heading a party that had been embarrassed by the "36 faceless men" episode. Menzies would have won anyway though I'm sure the assassination gave him a cushy last week on the campaign trail.

Ellis says Antony Green is predicting 41-59. I think that's wrong too. I think he's actually referring to an Essential Research poll claiming 41-59 ("last Friday's Essential Research stood out as being only bad rather than catastrophic.") which Antony actually demolished by showing it didn't add up as a result of false preferencing calculations (http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/02/correcting-last-weeks-essential-research-survey.html#more). The correct figure in that poll was 37.5-62.5.

These are just more examples of why Ellis is amusing but completely unreliable, frequently to the point of self-parody.


I am still won't be surprised if Labor polls about 30% on primary and 40% on 2PP. I predicted it some time ago, even though it might be too optimistic.

I think it is still possible they'll contain the damage to that. We've rarely had an election that was such an obviously uncompetitive contest and so we don't really know how good the polling is at forecasting how big a blowout it will be.

The problem for them is that the save-the-furniture message isn't cutting in yet - at all. Usually in a whitewash some voters will decide that if the government is gone anyway they should save their local member if their local member has done a good job. But this election many of the local members are quitting and the electorate seem to want to hold each and every Labor figure accountable for the mess.

Oepty
26-03-2011, 09:44 AM
It would be funny if the Labor Party ended up with 12 or less seats as it means they would have gone from enough seat to form governament in the largest state to not having enough seats to govern Australia's smallest state. Tonight is going to be fun.
Scott

Igor_Goldenberg
26-03-2011, 12:53 PM
...Tonight is going to be fun...
Not for Labor.

Oepty
26-03-2011, 02:28 PM
Not for Labor.

I don't really care that it is Labor on the receiving end. It would be equal the fun if it was the Liberals in the same position. Both sides are as bad as the other.
Scott

Kevin Bonham
26-03-2011, 02:36 PM
It was amusing reading the Newspoll modelling in the Australian today where they are calling seats on twenty percent margins marginals. What kind of government can be struggling to hold seats that it won 70-30? Probably the message is that Iemma shouldn't have won last time; the electorate gave that government one term too many.

The polls just haven't moved an inch. This is William Bowe (Crikey) on what is going on:


There remains an assumption that things can't possibly be as bad for Labor as that, and that a latent sympathy vote awaits to be absorbed by them. I suspect this is a misreading of the public mood. Labor is in fact being run down by a bandwagon effect, with the election looming as a public celebration of the government's demise -- a bit like a Mexican wave at the cricket where only a few curmudgeons in the members' stand decline to take part.

As difficult as the polling figures may be to process, history suggests they should be taken at face value. Neither Newspoll nor Galaxy has been more than 2% astray on two-party preferred in an election eve poll since 2007, and there is no persuasive reason to expect different this time.

Igor_Goldenberg
26-03-2011, 05:18 PM
SKY shows exit poll as swing against Labor of 21%. If true, it shows once again I am hopeless at predicting elections (as I predicted less then 2/3rd of that).
It'll be interesting to see actual results.

Igor_Goldenberg
26-03-2011, 05:19 PM
I don't really care that it is Labor on the receiving end. It would be equal the fun if it was the Liberals in the same position. Both sides are as bad as the other.
Scott
In this case Liberals would disagree about fun:lol:

Garvinator
26-03-2011, 05:24 PM
It was amusing reading the Newspoll modelling in the Australian today where they are calling seats on twenty percent margins marginals. What kind of government can be struggling to hold seats that it won 70-30? Probably the message is that Iemma shouldn't have won last time; the electorate gave that government one term too many.About a month ago, internal Labor staffers were apparently celebrating when they got back internal polling showing that for a seat in Western Sydney that they were likely to retain that seat.

At the last election they won that seat by a 23% margin.

Kevin Bonham
26-03-2011, 10:05 PM
OK the drubbing has been of almost exactly the expected margin and the polls were highly accurate.

There were some amazing swings, especially Bathurst (36.8%). For a swing from general election to general election between the same parties (with neither party being a minor party or Independent) I remember nothing like it ever.

The Greens have failed in Marrickville (deservedly so). Balmain is a mess because their candidate is just behind Labor's Verity Firth and needs to catch her after postals and preferences from a few minor candidates. We won't know but without knowing more about the minor candidates I'm doubtful the Greens will get it.

Legislative Council: currently looking like the CDP and Shooters+Fishers will hold the balance of power with Coalition and Labor+Green evenly balanced. My condolences to NSW on this horrible outcome; after four years of this you will be wishing you had only had Pauline.

Indeed the pressure from these upper house partners could be a big problem for O'Farrell as he will have to move to the right to get stuff passed upstairs.

antichrist
26-03-2011, 10:36 PM
I expect O farrell to copy what Gilliard may eventually do, get a few of opposition MPs to cross floor leaving the minorities as mutes

Kevin Bonham
26-03-2011, 10:46 PM
I expect O farrell to copy what Gilliard may eventually do, get a few of opposition MPs to cross floor leaving the minorities as mutes

He'd need three of them to do it and there's really nothing in it for them. Labor would want O'F to be passing right-wing policies so they had something to criticise him about.

Oepty
26-03-2011, 11:57 PM
He'd need three of them to do it and there's really nothing in it for them. Labor would want O'F to be passing right-wing policies so they had something to criticise him about.

The trouble of moving to the right is he has a number of new members, probably all backbenchers, who have been elected because left leaning voters choose to vote Liberal just to out the terrible Labor government. If they see Farrell efforts as selling them out he is going to have trouble from within his own party. There might be nothing O'Farrell or the Liberals can do to save some of them at the next election except hope Labor remains a mess. Under 5% margin on the back of a 20%+ swing is going to be very, very hard to defend.
Labor has to be careful that the honesty being called for does not just lead to people being honest about other failing without admitting their own. If that happens they bitterness and division might become entrenched. They do not want to end up like the SA Liberal Party.
Scott

Kevin Bonham
27-03-2011, 12:32 AM
Yes. Huge majorities make for a nervous and unruly backbench. I suspect he'll just have to ignore them and get stuff though the LC because the public will expect him to actually do stuff to fix up Labor's mess.

Oepty
27-03-2011, 01:12 AM
Yes. Huge majorities make for a nervous and unruly backbench. I suspect he'll just have to ignore them and get stuff though the LC because the public will expect him to actually do stuff to fix up Labor's mess.

Yes, agreed. Some of them probably would never have got a winnable seat to contest except that Labor was so awful.
Scott

Kevin Bonham
27-03-2011, 01:20 AM
On the causes of the 36.8% swing in Bathurst, pollbludger poster "leftwingpinko" suggested this:


* Sitting member retired;
* previous Tory attempts at winning the seat had been pathetic (3 cornerd contests with Libs and Nats) artificially inflating the previous margin;
* National candidate is the Mayor of Bathurst with a high public profile;
* Labor ran a crap candidate.

Kevin Bonham
27-03-2011, 01:50 AM
Notably independents linked to Windsor and Oakeshott have been booted by the Nats in Tamworth and Port Macquarie. The swing in Port Macquarie has been reported as 30% but that is misleading as that is the swing from the previous election when the seat was held by Oakeshott. Besseling was never as popular as Oakeshott so the swing from the by-election, 11% is probably a better guide. The swing in Tamworth was 12%.

If the same Ind-Nat swings were repeated at a federal election then Windsor would be safe (if he contested which he probably won't) while Oakeshott with a buffer of 12.7% would be line-ball.

Trent Parker
27-03-2011, 01:13 PM
Down goes Costa in Wollondilly

Massive walloping.

when I last checked with about 97% of votes counted Jai Rowell had over 17k votes to Phil Costa's with 8-9k...some 18% swing

Igor_Goldenberg
28-03-2011, 09:52 AM
If the same Ind-Nat swings were repeated at a federal election then Windsor would be safe (if he contested which he probably won't) while Oakeshott with a buffer of 12.7% would be line-ball.
I expect swings to be much higher as they would come from a higher margin (and the anger will be much more directed, not just a collateral damage). Oakeshott is probably gone. Windsor might survive as he is much smoother operator then Oakeshott and managed to keep lower profile.

Igor_Goldenberg
28-03-2011, 01:27 PM
Last NSW election might cause a long-term pattern realignment of about 4-5% in coalition favour.

So far all my election prediction were way of the mark. I'll make few more:

-In 2015 NSW Labor will get about +10% swing.
-Whoever is a NSW Labor leader at the time will claim a huge success.
-This claim will be ludicrous.

Capablanca-Fan
28-03-2011, 03:31 PM
Former Labor NSW premier Bob Carr, one of the more sensible Labor leaders, writes in It did not have to be this bad (http://bobcarrblog.wordpress.com/2011/03/28/it-did-not-have-to-be-this-bad/):


IT has taken political talent bordering on genius. The creativity of a master such as Disraeli or F. D. Roosevelt to deliver NSW Labor a defeat of this scale.

And I don’t mean Barry O’Farrell, although his political tactics are wholly vindicated and his occasional Liberal critics silenced. The genius was that of the Labor Party, in turning what could have been a swing-of-the-pendulum defeat into something far worse.

antichrist
28-03-2011, 03:47 PM
I don't dispute Carr but the blame is also partly due to the Liberal Party (Fahey) successfully bidding for the 2000 Olympic Games, that half broke the state, so we could afford proper infrastructure funding. And the rot set in from there. Trying to sell electricity power stations, that split the party. But also thank immensely the ethnic power brokers in the ALP.

Kevin Bonham
28-03-2011, 08:09 PM
The horror of it is that if they do get the 10% swing back Igor predicts, they'll still be uncompetitive. :lol:

antichrist
28-03-2011, 08:55 PM
The horror of it is that if they do get the 10% swing back Igor predicts, they'll still be uncompetitive. :lol:

If Robertson gets up they may continue on their misguided ways. He is related to Tripodi forget how now.

Kevin Bonham
28-03-2011, 10:11 PM
Yeah, some say Robertson could even finish the job. The lesson for Labor both state and federal is they have a major-league hackery problem. They had it in opposition under Beazley and Crean as well, then Rudd seemed to have fixed it in his own unique way, then they got rid of him.

In the NSW Upper House it is not completely clear that Hanson has failed. She could still get up for reasons discussed here (http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/03/legislative-council-update.html), although it seems fairly unlikely. If she did win then that would mean the Libs could get legislation passed with the support of any two of CDP, S+F and Hanson, as opposed to needing both CDP and S+F.

Balmain is still unclear. The Green candidate Parker trails the Labor incumbent Firth by 95 votes. He would need to overtake her on the preferences of minor candidates (who have about 2000 votes between them) and then beat the Liberal on her preferences. He has a decent chance to win it but we won't know in a hurry.

pappubahry
28-03-2011, 10:25 PM
Balmain is still unclear. The Green candidate Parker trails the Labor incumbent Firth by 95 votes. He would need to overtake her on the preferences of minor candidates (who have about 2000 votes between them) and then beat the Liberal on her preferences. He has a decent chance to win it but we won't know in a hurry.
Do you know what the average rate of preferencing is from ALP voters in NSW? I'm too lazy to Google for any directly relevant ballot surveys - I have the 2009 Qld election survey open though. LNP how-to-votes recommended just voting 1, and 75% of LNP voters followed this. ALP how-to-votes recommended voting 1 and 2, and 56% of ALP voters just voted 1.

Kevin Bonham
28-03-2011, 10:36 PM
Do you know what the average rate of preferencing is from ALP voters in NSW?

About half exhaust when a second preference is recommended.

This from Antony Green re 2007:

There were 13 electorates that finished as contests between an Independent and a Coalition candidate. Labor directed preferences to the Independent in all 13 of these contests, producing preference flows of 8.1% to the Coalition, 43.6% to the Independent and 48.3% exhaustring.

There were no 2007 contests that finished Lib vs Green (as may happen in Balmain) so we don't know what happens there. I reckon the exhaust rate would be similar but the split Green over Lib would not be as strong as the split for Ind over Lib in similar cases. Still, if Parker can get over Firth I think he should catch the Liberal.

Kevin Bonham
31-03-2011, 10:23 AM
Balmain is still unclear as Parker is closing the tiny gap to Firth as non-booth votes are counted. He could well overtake her on primaries but not by much and then it is a question of whether the preferences of the minor candidates (the most significant of whom preferenced Labor on her card) will add up to enough to reverse that.

Garvinator
31-03-2011, 11:19 AM
Balmain is still unclear as Parker is closing the tiny gap to Firth as non-booth votes are counted. He could well overtake her on primaries but not by much and then it is a question of whether the preferences of the minor candidates (the most significant of whom preferenced Labor on her card) will add up to enough to reverse that.
Surely there will be a re-count.

How is Hanson doing?

Kevin Bonham
31-03-2011, 07:26 PM
Surely there will be a re-count.

That depends how close it is at the crucial exclusion.

Parker now 203 ahead on primaries with 2967 total for minor candidates. Distribution time tomorrow apparently.


How is Hanson doing?

Still in with a chance. Currently ahead of the Greens and Labor on primaries. Needs to build that lead bigtime as below-the-lines are added to avoid missing out on preferences. Hanson is very good at getting below-the-line votes but very bad at getting preferences.

Kevin Bonham
01-04-2011, 09:52 PM
Parker now 249 votes ahead which is possibly too much, however the distribution of preferences has still not occurred (it was scheduled for today but they've been slow. May happen tomorrow.)

Greens ahead of Hanson in the LC count now.

Garvinator
01-04-2011, 09:53 PM
Parker now 249 votes ahead which is possibly too much, however the distribution of preferences has still not occurred (it was scheduled for today but they've been slow. May happen tomorrow.)
I am always amazed that it takes soooo long for this stuff to be resolved.

Kevin Bonham
01-04-2011, 10:09 PM
I am always amazed that it takes soooo long for this stuff to be resolved.

Most of it is because Australia is so lenient on postal votes. Actually NSW is one of the less lenient states on the postal trickle.

In the case of Balmain an extra complication is that the Electoral Commission's choice of parties to do 2PP on was wrong, but it was not clear which two were the correct parties. Usually when electoral authorities have the 2PP wrong they at least know what direction to fix it in.

antichrist
02-04-2011, 10:28 AM
Most of it is because Australia is so lenient on postal votes. Actually NSW is one of the less lenient states on the postal trickle.

In the case of Balmain an extra complication is that the Electoral Commission's choice of parties to do 2PP on was wrong, but it was not clear which two were the correct parties. Usually when electoral authorities have the 2PP wrong they at least know what direction to fix it in.

that 2pp reminds me of K factor in rating. Latest news is that in Balmain the Green candidate is a whisker ahead, and Pauline Hanson is going down

antichrist
02-04-2011, 10:33 AM
Originally Posted by Garvinator
I am always amazed that it takes soooo long for this stuff to be resolved

AC
well if you seen the contortunist act in the way I numbered 72 squares you could understand why, lika a bat outa hell I was

Kevin Bonham
02-04-2011, 03:25 PM
Parker has stayed ahead of Firth by 201 votes after preferences and will now win the seat.

antichrist
03-04-2011, 03:56 PM
Parker has stayed ahead of Firth by 201 votes after preferences and will now win the seat.

The first winner from a party whose policy is calling for sanctions upon a certain protected-species country.

Kevin Bonham
03-04-2011, 04:02 PM
Only the first lower-house state winner. After all Lee Rhiannon who is more extreme than Parker is about to become a senator for 6 years.

antichrist
03-04-2011, 04:11 PM
Only the first lower-house state winner. After all Lee Rhiannon who is more extreme than Parker is about to become a senator for 6 years.

But I don't know if NSW Greens had sanctioins policy when Rhiannon won. I have met her personally and found her okay so far. Slightly off topic, my Byron mate, Ian Cohen has signed significant petitions against protected country is he also an anti-Semitic Trot?

Kevin Bonham
03-04-2011, 04:34 PM
But I don't know if NSW Greens had sanctioins policy when Rhiannon won. I have met her personally and found her okay so far. Slightly off topic, my Byron mate, Ian Cohen has signed significant petitions against protected country is he also an anti-Semitic Trot?

From what I've seen Cohen wasn't happy about the focus on Israel in the Greens' campaign at all.

Kevin Bonham
09-04-2011, 03:18 PM
Legislative Council counting is continuing in NSW and Hanson has been gaining on below-the-line votes and is now about 4000 primaries ahead of the Greens. If it gets much larger than that she may be able to stay ahead on preferences and win. At the moment it is probably still not enough.

Kevin Bonham
11-04-2011, 04:54 PM
This piece:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110411/wl_asia_afp/australiapoliticshansonvote

claiming that Hanson is set to win was picked up by Alex in the other place, but actually it's another piece of premature election reporting based on a misunderstanding of what is going on.

It is actually still not at all clear whether Hanson will win. Yes, the ABC site is awarding it to her but the ABC site's model assumes that preferences will not make any difference (usually a safe assumption in the NSW Legislative Council because few preferences are distributed, but not a safe assumption in a close contest where one candidate is very bad at getting preferences.)

The article says "Australian anti-immigration firebrand Pauline Hanson looked set to make her political return Monday, with a leading election analyst tipping her to win an eight-year term in New South Wales' parliament.

[..]

The broadcaster's respected election analyst Antony Green estimated that Hanson was leading her nearest rival, Greens candidate Jeremy Buckingham, by more than 6,000 votes for the 21st seat."

And indeed Hanson is leading by that much on primaries but the Greens will gain on those preferences that do not exhaust. Whether they gain enough we will know when the button is pressed tomorrow. All Antony has actually said about this is "The famous Pauline Hanson has a chance of victory because may Labor voters many have exhausted preferences rather than direct them to the Greens." and "This is a contest that looks like it will not be decided until the data entry is complete and the count button is pressed to distribute preferences."

Oepty
11-04-2011, 05:33 PM
This piece:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110411/wl_asia_afp/australiapoliticshansonvote

claiming that Hanson is set to win was picked up by Alex in the other place, but actually it's another piece of premature election reporting based on a misunderstanding of what is going on.

It is actually still not at all clear whether Hanson will win. Yes, the ABC site is awarding it to her but the ABC site's model assumes that preferences will not make any difference (usually a safe assumption in the NSW Legislative Council because few preferences are distributed, but not a safe assumption in a close contest where one candidate is very bad at getting preferences.)

The article says "Australian anti-immigration firebrand Pauline Hanson looked set to make her political return Monday, with a leading election analyst tipping her to win an eight-year term in New South Wales' parliament.

[..]

The broadcaster's respected election analyst Antony Green estimated that Hanson was leading her nearest rival, Greens candidate Jeremy Buckingham, by more than 6,000 votes for the 21st seat."

And indeed Hanson is leading by that much on primaries but the Greens will gain on those preferences that do not exhaust. Whether they gain enough we will know when the button is pressed tomorrow. All Antony has actually said about this is "The famous Pauline Hanson has a chance of victory because may Labor voters many have exhausted preferences rather than direct them to the Greens." and "This is a contest that looks like it will not be decided until the data entry is complete and the count button is pressed to distribute preferences."

I heard a Greens spokesman (MP I think it was said) on ABC radio say that the Greens were still thinking they would win the seat because they had examined the preferences. In my view the Greens tend to talk up their prospects far too much so I am not sure how good their view is.
Scott

Kevin Bonham
11-04-2011, 09:13 PM
In my view the Greens tend to talk up their prospects far too much so I am not sure how good their view is.

Yes I am treating that claim with a bit of caution for the same reason, although the Greens have some very good scrutineers on board for this one. But it is consistent with the comments of Geoff Lambert on Pollbludger - he has been running spreadsheets using preference data from the last time the Greens and Hanson both ran, and his spreadsheet points to an 8000 vote win for the Greens, but he's saying that the uncertainties involved are such that he cannot be sure they'll win.

antichrist
12-04-2011, 06:46 AM
don't say I have to hear her name bandied around for another 8 years, and I thought she was only in it for the extra income. It could be the case as I heard that she has shown no policy what so ever on any website.

Lord have mercy on us.

Now I know how some of you feel about someone on this board

Igor_Goldenberg
12-04-2011, 10:24 AM
Using the principle of "the least of two evils" I'd rather see Hanson in the senate then Greens. On the other hand Greens are already represented. If Hanson is elected NSW would hear more rubbish. A typical lose/lose situation.
Do Labor have any chance of winning this seat?

Kevin Bonham
12-04-2011, 11:03 AM
Do Labor have any chance of winning this seat?

None whatsoever.

What has happened overnight is interesting and surprising - Hanson has firmed so much on late below-the-line counting that she is now ahead of not just the Green but also the last Coaltion candidate. Hanson leads the Coalition by 7540 primaries and the Green by 15470. Based on the projections I have been seeing that lead over the Greens might be enough (I would not trust the extrapolations from 2003 data if there are only a few thousand votes in it), and even if it isn't she has the fallback of perhaps beating the Coalition candidate.

Button being pressed any moment now. It may indeed have already occurred!

Garvinator
12-04-2011, 01:09 PM
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/pauline-hanson-loses-bid-for-nsw-seat/story-e6freooo-1226037760933

Desmond
12-04-2011, 02:12 PM
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/pauline-hanson-loses-bid-for-nsw-seat/story-e6freooo-1226037760933
lmao at one of the comments

She will be packing up the trailer and heading North for the next state election.

Kevin Bonham
12-04-2011, 05:43 PM
Extremely close result in the end. The Green beat Hanson by 2437 votes and the Nat beat her by 1306.

antichrist
12-04-2011, 07:17 PM
Extremely close result in the end. The Green beat Hanson by 2437 votes and the Nat beat her by 1306.

thank whoever whatever, I hated everything about her esp her voice. Cant they marry her off to somebody and get her out of currency?

antichrist
12-04-2011, 11:23 PM
we already have the fishers and shooters in parliament, plus my mate Fred NIle, if Pauline as well it would have made it even more of a joke