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Kevin Bonham
18-07-2010, 09:54 PM
The ere only two election when the winner didn't get 40% of primary votes:
1990 (Labor 39.44%) and 1998 (Coalition 39.50%).

Trivially minor correction: in 1998 the Coalition polled 39.82% on primaries (still below 40). The 39.5 omits the 0.32% polled by the CLP in the Northern Territory in losing their only seat. :lol:


If Labor polls below 40% (as it does almost consistently last few months), even Green preferences might not be sufficient (at least that's what I hope for:D :D ).

It could be very similar to 1990. In that year a poor Labor primary was rescued by a double-digit primary for the Democrats. Labor lost the primary vote by four points but made up nearly all of that on preferences and won the election by nine seats (+/- one independent.)

Kevin Bonham
19-07-2010, 01:34 AM
Newspoll now have Labor ahead 55:45 (primaries 42:38). That's off a sample size of 1140 so that more than cancels out the Galaxy 50:50. Naturally, I think the truth lies somewhere between the two.

Basil
22-08-2010, 05:16 PM
Dear 3 (or 2.7 or 2.1 or whatever you are)

I love you. I love you all. You have done good for all the children that Elliott holds dear, even if he was too thick to help them himself!

Best wishes
Howard

Basil
18-04-2011, 09:42 AM
The minus 6?

Kevin Bonham
18-04-2011, 10:33 AM
Labor voters are split between Rudd and Gillard as to better PM! And that's among the Labor voters who are keeping the faith.

Basil
18-04-2011, 12:47 PM
Labor voters are split between Rudd and Gillard as to better PM! And that's among the Labor voters who are keeping the faith.
I heard some commentary positing that these high preferred leader results for Rudd and Turnbull were mischievous indications from pollees, viz Labor voters 'preferring' Turnbull and Liberal voters 'preferring' Rudd.

Kevin Bonham
18-04-2011, 03:46 PM
I heard some commentary positing that these high preferred leader results for Rudd and Turnbull were mischievous indications from pollees, viz Labor voters 'preferring' Turnbull and Liberal voters 'preferring' Rudd.

Well, deliberate silly stuff is probably some small part of it although it would also be expected that Labor voters would genuinely prefer Turnbull to Abbott and Lib voters (at least of the conservative variety) might genuinely prefer Rudd to Gillard.

But the actual breakdown here: http://www.theage.com.au/national/labor-slips-would-fall-in-landslide-20110417-1djte.html really shows that Labor supporters are split between Rudd and Gillard now.

Capablanca-Fan
20-04-2011, 08:18 AM
Andrew Bolt on Labor's troubles: they have long forgotten the workers (http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/column_abbott_drinks_labors_beer/):



Before that we heard the Australian Workers Union boss, Paul Howes, warn Gillard, whom he’d helped to install, that he’d fight her carbon dioxide tax “if one job is gone” — an impossible test.

More ominous for Labor was the reason he gave for this threat. He said he’d gone to six mass meetings of his members in 10 days and “I now appreciate just how upset workers are about the carbon tax”.

Here is a union leader being told by his members that Labor is madly out of touch, pushing policies of the Left that he’d better damn well block.



But it’s also clear that Labor is far too preoccupied with the moralising causes of the urban Left that have little relevance to many workers and the poor — other than as a threat.

Take global warming, which involves Labor making the poor pay more in power bills to pamper the conscience of people much richer, or has it sacrificing blue-collar jobs on green shrines, just to make a purely symbolic gesture.

Or consider multiculturalism and rampant immigration, which mean cramming more newcomers into poor suburbs where they’ll struggle to fit in, and then damning the ugly consequences as Australian “racism”.

This fault line marks where the battle for Labor’s future will be fought, when electoral disaster has finally struck.


Kevin Bonham
03-06-2011, 07:43 PM
Tracking shows it's been the minus four on average for the last month and a half.

http://yfrog.com/h21jpsp

Today there was a Morgan which came out to 42:58 but that was a small sample and will be dismissed as an outlier - unless it proves to be prophetic.

Basil
08-05-2012, 02:16 PM
What is now? The 9 or something like that on 2PP? That's quite the ahem reversal (at least pro tem).

Rincewind
08-05-2012, 03:26 PM
What is now? The 9 or something like that on 2PP? That's quite the ahem reversal (at least pro tem).

It's easy to get excited this far out of an election. With the Thomson affair hurting the govt at the moment it might get worse. But all that will could well be ancient history by the time the election rolls around.

I think the government is no better than even-money at retaining power at the next election and may even be worse than that if they can't get themselves organised and start scoring runs off Abbott, Bishop and the rest of the clergy.

E.G. when Tony is asked for a comment on the budget and all he has is some anti-Thomson boilerplate rhetoric he sounds like he's living in a policy free zone (and I thought the libs were supposed to the the fiscally responsible ones). However no one in govt seems able to get that message out.

Let's see how the next 12 months pan out.

Basil
11-12-2012, 09:14 PM
What is now? The 9 or something like that on 2PP? That's quite the ahem reversal (at least pro tem).
Finished the year as 'The 4', according to Newspoll, anyway.

Kevin Bonham
11-12-2012, 10:28 PM
Finished the year as 'The 4', according to Newspoll, anyway.

About 1 point of that was noise in my view, it should have been a 53 and the 51 last fortnight should have been a 52. Then again Newspoll has been about half a point too kind to Labor on average for a while so maybe it's the 3.5. 53-54 is about where the multi-poll aggregators have it, depending on their methods.

Basil
24-08-2013, 12:40 AM
Well, we found 'The 3'. Looks like we've found another 3 into the bargain! :owned:

Basil
02-06-2019, 11:35 PM
3 more years... 3 more years...
3 x 3

Kevin Bonham
04-06-2019, 12:06 PM
The '3' pulled their best stunt yet at this election - making themselves invisible to pollsters!

The average error on polls on the 2PP looks likely to be about 3 points (48.6 vs currently 51.6, probably about 51.8 by the time all divisions are included.)