PDA

View Full Version : Man-Made Climate Change: Issues and debates



Pages : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 [19] 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

MichaelBaron
03-07-2019, 02:05 PM
I think you'll find that they know a lot more about climate change than you do. It is something they learn at school.

I do not think they learn about Big Data at school. They learn about how the ''world is coming to the end' and we need to stop it'' - this is something different.

antichrist
03-07-2019, 02:11 PM
I do not think they learn about Big Data at school. They learn about how the ''world is coming to the end' and we need to stop it'' - this is something different.

Well at least it is more positive in that we can stop it - whereas in Armageddon Theory the world is coming to an end but we have no hope of stopping it! Humans are responsible for CC but Armageddon was pre-ordained for us by God.

Capablanca-Fan
03-07-2019, 02:25 PM
“The fate of coal has been sealed, the market has spoken,” said Michael Webber, an energy expert at the University of Texas. “The trend is irreversible now, the decline of coal is unstoppable despite Donald Trump’s rhetoric.”
...

What do they care about the market? The government was punishing coal and subsidizing so-called renewables.

Meanwhile:

Elderly people are dying at home or being rushed to hospital because they can’t afford heating (https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/elderly-people-are-dying-at-home-or-being-rushed-to-hospital-because-they-cant-afford-heating/news-story/e1d5f7caaf9159f2036b0abb1f332359?fbclid=IwAR0hmw-542kXHupdWBwc-ulYZDGhAwyb0SP8cdGyMOk5IqYBHInfyy6FhGY)
Campbell Gellie, The Daily Telegraph, 30 June 2019

Elderly people are dying in their cold homes or being rushed to hospital because they can’t afford to put the heater on.

More than 130 people were admitted to NSW emergency departments last winter with cold-related problems including hypothermia, a 34 per cent increase from 10 years ago.

Over the same period power prices have increased by 117 per cent.

[Thank goodness we are getting rid of cheap coal and replacing it with expensive renewables.]

Patrick Byrom
03-07-2019, 03:06 PM
What do they care about the market? The government was punishing coal and subsidizing so-called renewables.
Meanwhile: ... [Thank goodness we are getting rid of cheap coal and replacing it with expensive renewables.]But the power price increase isn't due to renewable energy,

Patrick Byrom
03-07-2019, 03:13 PM
I do not think they learn about Big Data at school. They learn about how the ''world is coming to the end' and we need to stop it'' - this is something different.Can you support that claim with syllabus documents? AGW is fairly basic physics, which children should learn at school. And you don't need anything more than very basic linear regression to analyse the temperature data.

Patrick Byrom
03-07-2019, 03:16 PM
You mean, what they are indoctrinated in by leftist teachers. But parents send their kids to school to learn, not to do the dirty work of leftist indoctrinators. Also, will dissenting kids be persecuted by classmates egged on by their teachers?Children shouldn't learn the physics of global warming at school? Once you understand the physics, you'll understand why we need to do something about it.

Desmond
03-07-2019, 03:29 PM
What do they care about the market? The government was punishing coal and subsidizing so-called renewables.
As per #4349 (http://www.chesschat.org/showthread.php?6637-Man-Made-Climate-Change-Issues-and-debates&p=448617&viewfull=1#post448617), subsidies of fossil fuels runs into the trillions globally, $649 billion in the USA alone.

MichaelBaron
03-07-2019, 04:18 PM
Can you support that claim with syllabus documents? AGW is fairly basic physics, which children should learn at school. And you don't need anything more than very basic linear regression to analyse the temperature data.

To teach physics etc one does not need to bring political issues in. And re weather data being Big Data - this can be found in many Data Analytics books. In fact one of the textbooks we are using now, refers to Weather Data as an example of Big Data.

Patrick Byrom
03-07-2019, 05:07 PM
To teach physics etc one does not need to bring political issues in.Who said anything about politics!? The more carbon dioxide we add to the atmosphere, the higher the global temperature becomes - that's physics, not politics.

And re weather data being Big Data - this can be found in many Data Analytics books. In fact one of the textbooks we are using now, refers to Weather Data as an example of Big Data.I was referring to the global temperature data, not the weather data (which is much more complicated). You don't need a computer to analyse temperature trends.

Ian Murray
03-07-2019, 06:17 PM
You mean, what they are indoctrinated in by leftist teachers. But parents send their kids to school to learn, not to do the dirty work of leftist indoctrinators. Also, will dissenting kids be persecuted by classmates egged on by their teachers?

Dream on. Science doesn't care what you believe

Ian Murray
03-07-2019, 06:20 PM
To teach physics etc one does not need to bring political issues in. And re weather data being Big Data - this can be found in many Data Analytics books. In fact one of the textbooks we are using now, refers to Weather Data as an example of Big Data.

You're conflating weather and climate. Not the same

Ian Murray
03-07-2019, 06:28 PM
But the power price increase isn't due to renewable energy,

Renewable energy generation at scale is now cheaper to build and operate than coal-fired. And more reliable - coal plant units regularly break down and take months to restore, while renewable energy with battery back-up recovers in micro-seconds.

Ian Murray
03-07-2019, 06:59 PM
What do they care about the market? The government was punishing coal and subsidizing so-called renewables.

Meanwhile:

Elderly people are dying at home or being rushed to hospital because they can’t afford heating (https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/elderly-people-are-dying-at-home-or-being-rushed-to-hospital-because-they-cant-afford-heating/news-story/e1d5f7caaf9159f2036b0abb1f332359?fbclid=IwAR0hmw-542kXHupdWBwc-ulYZDGhAwyb0SP8cdGyMOk5IqYBHInfyy6FhGY)
Campbell Gellie, The Daily Telegraph, 30 June 2019

Elderly people are dying in their cold homes or being rushed to hospital because they can’t afford to put the heater on.

More than 130 people were admitted to NSW emergency departments last winter with cold-related problems including hypothermia, a 34 per cent increase from 10 years ago.

Over the same period power prices have increased by 117 per cent.

[Thank goodness we are getting rid of cheap coal and replacing it with expensive renewables.]

I can't find the Monash Uni paper, but bear in mind that the NSW population increased by 12.2% over the last ten years. And causes of death are a lot more complex than power prices.

Fact check: Do more people die in Australia than Sweden due to poorly heated homes? (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-09/fact-check-australia-sweden-winter-fatalities-heating/8780588)

...The evidence supports the claim that more Australians than Swedes die in cold temperatures, and these deaths relate to moderate – rather than extreme – cold.

But while temperature is a factor, lifestyle and general health risks also play a role, making it hard to attribute winter deaths to moderate cold alone.

Deaths peak every winter in Australia, with cardiovascular disease contributing significantly to the rise....

...The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare explains: "Diseases of the circulatory system, pneumonia and influenza and sudden infant death syndrome are all highly seasonal causes of death, occurring more often in winter."

Professor Wilson told Fact Check: "The people who are most susceptible to deaths during these periods are the people who are most susceptible to deaths at other times; that is, people who have pre-existing diseases."

He said the main cause of excess winter mortality is heart disease or other forms of vascular disease. But a number of things can contribute to this, including respiratory infections such as the flu, which "can make people more prone to heart attacks, to stroke, and can therefore increase the mortality from cardiovascular disease"....

Ian Murray
03-07-2019, 07:52 PM
I've been trying to track down the Monash Uni study concluding that hypothermia deaths in NSW are up 34% over ten years. All we have so far is a claim in The Daily Telegraph

Author of the study is named as Dr Michelle Ananda-Rajah. A search of her cited work reveals nothing this year, which seems passing strange

https://scholar.google.com.au/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Michelle+Ananda-Rajah&btnG=
https://research.monash.edu/en/persons/michelle-ananda-rajah
https://research.monash.edu/en/persons/michelle-ananda-rajah/publications/

Patrick Byrom
03-07-2019, 08:03 PM
I've been trying to track down the Monash Uni study concluding that hypothermia deaths in NSW are up 34% over ten years. All we have so far is a claim in The Daily Telegraph Author of the study is named as Dr Michelle Ananda-Rajah. A search of her cited work reveals nothing this year, which seems passing strange
https://scholar.google.com.au/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Michelle+Ananda-Rajah&btnG=
https://research.monash.edu/en/persons/michelle-ananda-rajah
https://research.monash.edu/en/persons/michelle-ananda-rajah/publications/
That would presumably be the person ("Amanda-Rajah"?) quoted in this Guardian article (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jun/17/elderly-victorians-being-treated-for-hypothermia-as-heating-costs-bite)about Victorian deaths - no mention of NSW.

Ian Murray
03-07-2019, 08:20 PM
The global LNG market is facing a massive over-supply risk

Climate friend or carbon bomb? Global gas market faces $1.3trn stranded asset risk (https://reneweconomy.com.au/climate-friend-or-carbon-bomb-global-gas-market-faces-1-3trn-stranded-asset-risk-80593/?utm_source=RE+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=1ff15a114b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_07_03_02_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_46a1943223-1ff15a114b-40329085)
Renew Economy
3.7.19

The global gas market will need to slow the pace of its growth, to avoid both the risk of stranded assets and to prevent further increases to global emissions, a new report from US-based think tank Global Energy Monitor has found.

In the report, Global Energy Monitor has warned that up to US$1.3 trillion in new LNG export and import infrastructure currently under development is at significant risk of becoming stranded, as the world market for gas risks becoming oversupplied, particularly if the United States and Canada play a larger role....

Capablanca-Fan
04-07-2019, 12:20 AM
Children shouldn't learn the physics of global warming at school? Once you understand the physics, you'll understand why we need to do something about it.

Many of these kids have not learned the physics before protesting. Most of the fanatical green politicians and celebrities who fly around on private jets don't know the physics. There is also more to the debate than infrared absorption spectra as well. One can understand the physics of CO₂ absorbing IR because its bending and asymmetric stretch modes (but not the symmetric stretch) change the dipole moment of the molecule, and I understand that much more than most, but knowing this doesn't entail agreeing with big-government ‘solutions’.

Capablanca-Fan
04-07-2019, 12:33 AM
Renewable energy generation at scale is now cheaper to build and operate than coal-fired. And more reliable - coal plant units regularly break down and take months to restore, while renewable energy with battery back-up recovers in micro-seconds.

Hard to believe, since by its nature the ‘renewable’ energy is diffuse and intermittent. And the fossil fuel generation is also getting better. The best coal stations running on the Rankine cycle are up to 42% efficient. Natural gas combined cycle plants can reach 60% efficiency (gas turbine running on the Brayton cycle, with its waste heat powering a Rankine cycle steam engine), and they have overtaken coal in the USA (https://www.elp.com/articles/2019/04/eia-gas-fired-combined-cycle-now-generates-more-u-s-power-than-coal.html). Wind turbines are 35-45% efficient, and could not possibly be more efficient than the Betz Limit of 59.6%.

But if renewables can beat fossil fuels in fair competition, i.e. no government punishments or rewards, then go for it. E.g. as I've mentioned before, I've replaced most incandescent bulbs with LEDs in my house, but I chose to do so.

Capablanca-Fan
04-07-2019, 12:34 AM
Fact check: Do more people die in Australia than Sweden due to poorly heated homes? (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-09/fact-check-australia-sweden-winter-fatalities-heating/8780588)

...The evidence supports the claim that more Australians than Swedes die in cold temperatures, and these deaths relate to moderate – rather than extreme – cold.

But while temperature is a factor, lifestyle and general health risks also play a role, making it hard to attribute winter deaths to moderate cold alone.

Deaths peak every winter in Australia, with cardiovascular disease contributing significantly to the rise....

...The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare explains: "Diseases of the circulatory system, pneumonia and influenza and sudden infant death syndrome are all highly seasonal causes of death, occurring more often in winter."

Professor Wilson told Fact Check: "The people who are most susceptible to deaths during these periods are the people who are most susceptible to deaths at other times; that is, people who have pre-existing diseases."

He said the main cause of excess winter mortality is heart disease or other forms of vascular disease. But a number of things can contribute to this, including respiratory infections such as the flu, which "can make people more prone to heart attacks, to stroke, and can therefore increase the mortality from cardiovascular disease"....
Good article, thanks.

MichaelBaron
04-07-2019, 01:36 AM
Many of these kids have not learned the physics before protesting. Most of the fanatical green politicians and celebrities who fly around on private jets don't know the physics. There is also more to the debate than infrared absorption spectra as well. One can understand the physics of CO₂ absorbing IR because its bending and asymmetric stretch modes (but not the symmetric stretch) change the dipole moment of the molecule, and I understand that much more than most, but knowing this doesn't entail agreeing with big-government ‘solutions’.

But who needs physics? If all of the protesters (including adults) would study hard and have the knowledge and the brain...there would be fare less protests :).

Desmond
04-07-2019, 09:16 AM
Many of these kids have not learned the physics before protesting. Most of the fanatical green politicians and celebrities who fly around on private jets don't know the physics. There is also more to the debate than infrared absorption spectra as well. One can understand the physics of CO₂ absorbing IR because its bending and asymmetric stretch modes (but not the symmetric stretch) change the dipole moment of the molecule, and I understand that much more than most, but knowing this doesn't entail agreeing with big-government ‘solutions’.

Since the physics is not in dispute (apparently), then why suggest the kids need to specialise in it?

Whether or not so-called big government solutions are appropriate is something we can reasonably have a discussion on. But it's hard to have that discussion when the other side (i.e. your side) seem happy to pivot between denying the physics, denying the warming, claiming global conspiracies, and so on.

Ian Murray
04-07-2019, 10:12 AM
Hard to believe, since by its nature the ‘renewable’ energy is diffuse and intermittent. And the fossil fuel generation is also getting better. The best coal stations running on the Rankine cycle are up to 42% efficient. Natural gas combined cycle plants can reach 60% efficiency (gas turbine running on the Brayton cycle, with its waste heat powering a Rankine cycle steam engine), and they have overtaken coal in the USA (https://www.elp.com/articles/2019/04/eia-gas-fired-combined-cycle-now-generates-more-u-s-power-than-coal.html). Wind turbines are 35-45% efficient, and could not possibly be more efficient than the Betz Limit of 59.6%.

But if renewables can beat fossil fuels in fair competition, i.e. no government punishments or rewards, then go for it. E.g. as I've mentioned before, I've replaced most incandescent bulbs with LEDs in my house, but I chose to do so.

Variable renewable energy needs storage for 24/7 balanced supply, but even when including the cost of storage wind and solar still have by far the cheapest levellised costs

CSIRO/AEMO study says wind, solar and storage clearly cheaper than coal (https://reneweconomy.com.au/csiro-aemo-study-says-wind-solar-and-storage-clearly-cheaper-than-coal-45724/)

And as temperatures rise and electricity demand rises, coal-fired plants become less reliable with more frequent trips. Note that the newer "high-efficiency-low-emissions" plants trip more often than the aging plants.

Coal power plants in Australia broke down once every three days in 2018 (https://reneweconomy.com.au/coal-power-plants-in-australia-broke-down-once-every-three-days-in-2018-2018/)

Meanwhile the cost of renewables keeps falling - A Los Angeles utility has just contracted with a solar/battery supplier for electricity at 1.99 cents/kWh from solar and 1.3 cents from battery

Coal and gas on notice, as US big solar and battery deal stuns market (https://reneweconomy.com.au/coal-and-gas-on-notice-as-us-big-solar-and-battery-deal-stuns-market-60011/?utm_source=RE+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=1ff15a114b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_07_03_02_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_46a1943223-1ff15a114b-40329085)

Ian Murray
04-07-2019, 11:06 AM
Many of these kids have not learned the physics before protesting.

What the kids do know is that there is a climate crisis threatening the habitability of the planet in their future, something has to be done about it, and done now.


Most of the fanatical green politicians and celebrities who fly around on private jets don't know the physics.

Any more than the fanatical rednecks. But it is commercial aviation which is producing 2% of global emissions, which need curbing. ICAO now has its Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA (https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/CORSIA/Pages/default.aspx)) under evaluation.


There is also more to the debate than infrared absorption spectra as well. One can understand the physics of CO₂ absorbing IR because its bending and asymmetric stretch modes (but not the symmetric stretch) change the dipole moment of the molecule, and I understand that much more than most, but knowing this doesn't entail agreeing with big-government ‘solutions’.

The physics is not in dispute, nor is the fact that the atmospheric CO2 content is rising, nor is the fact that burning fossil fuels emits CO2, nor is the fact that global surface temperatures are rising, nor is the fact that adding heat to the climate system perturbs the system. Then it's a matter of connecting the dots.

If you don't want governments to take action, who then?

MichaelBaron
04-07-2019, 11:18 AM
What the kids do know is that there is a climate crisis threatening the habitability of the planet in their future, something has to be done about it, and done now.





But how do they know it? They understand the processes behind the global warming/specific impacts or someone told them that ''planet is in crisis lets protest''? :)

Blunderbuss
04-07-2019, 11:32 AM
But how do they know it? They understand the processes behind the global warming/specific impacts or someone told them that ''planet is in crisis lets protest''? :)

It’s depressing that people on the right seem to view the climate debate as some sort of left-wing plot to take over the world. What about getting together to prevent runaway global warming first. Then after that we can continue to argue over Friedman verses Keynes.

The internet provides an ocean of information (maybe too much – if that’s possible). So, in the classroom the children need to be taught critical thinking. How to compare the trustworthiness of sites and the agenda (if any) of the authors.

Personally, I find the details as in “CO₂ absorbing IR because its bending and asymmetric stretch modes (but not the symmetric stretch) change the dipole moment of the molecule” endlessly fascinating.
And could add, methane – ‘a relatively short-lived gas that lasts in the atmosphere about 12 years but still has a warming power about 28 times greater than the same amount of CO2 when calculated over a century.’ *

*Source : Adam Morton Guardian July 2019 (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/03/booming-lng-industry-could-be-as-bad-for-climate-as-coal-experts-warn)

But this is probably where we get to the nub of the problem. How engaged is the public in this level of detail? And who do they believe - Alan Jones and his grain of rice or say Brian Cox (the physicist not the actor).

Ian Murray
04-07-2019, 11:36 AM
But how do they know it? They understand the processes behind the global warming/specific impacts or someone told them that ''planet is in crisis lets protest''? :)

They are taught the science at school. Kids start learning basic science in their first year or two at school - basic climate science is well within their grasp in high school.

antichrist
04-07-2019, 11:53 AM
But how do they know it? They understand the processes behind the global warming/specific impacts or someone told them that ''planet is in crisis lets protest''? :)

You don't need to know any science just observe. I may have given this example before?? I left my home and lived in Sydney for some years, in that time my palm trees had grown and deposited a lot of muck in the fishpond, branches, seeds blossoms etc.. I thought I will be a good boy and clean this up. The fish were surviving quite okay in clean water on upper section. Had grown to monsters actually. So I entered the pond and began working, lo and behold, all that muck got stirred up and the fish were surfacing trying to escape the dirty water. I had to quickly catch them and big emergency to find them suitable water with no chemicals. Well it is exactly with our greenhouse. Just as it took years for that muck to safely accumulate on the floor of the pond it took billions of years for that coal/oil to safely form and accumulate below our feet - but stir it up in a short period of a few hundred years and the atmosphere becomes exactly the same as my fish pond where no fish could survive. Only a bit of basic common sense to work out climate change

As my mother would say "what God below the ground is meant to stay below the ground"

Blunderbuss
04-07-2019, 12:08 PM
.. the fish were surfacing trying to escape the dirty water. I had to quickly catch them and big emergency ...

While I love your story antichrist – in case you need any more details you could do worse than this: earthobservatory.nasa.gov-EnergyBalance (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/EnergyBalance/page1.php)

I was struck by the final couple of paragraphs: -


As the surface temperature rises, the amount of heat the surface radiates will increase rapidly (see description of radiative cooling on Page 4). If the concentration of greenhouse gases stabilizes, then Earth’s climate will once again come into equilibrium, albeit with the “thermostat”—global average surface temperature—set at a higher temperature than it was before the Industrial Revolution.



However, as long as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, the amount of absorbed solar energy will continue to exceed the amount of thermal infrared energy that can escape to space. The energy imbalance will continue to grow, and surface temperatures will continue to rise.

Capablanca-Fan
04-07-2019, 12:17 PM
If you don't want governments to take action, who then?
The markets. If your previous post (reproduced below) is right, then this supports that contention.


Variable renewable energy needs storage for 24/7 balanced supply, but even when including the cost of storage wind and solar still have by far the cheapest levellised costs

CSIRO/AEMO study says wind, solar and storage clearly cheaper than coal (https://reneweconomy.com.au/csiro-aemo-study-says-wind-solar-and-storage-clearly-cheaper-than-coal-45724/)

And as temperatures rise and electricity demand rises, coal-fired plants become less reliable with more frequent trips. Note that the newer "high-efficiency-low-emissions" plants trip more often than the aging plants.

Coal power plants in Australia broke down once every three days in 2018 (https://reneweconomy.com.au/coal-power-plants-in-australia-broke-down-once-every-three-days-in-2018-2018/)

Meanwhile the cost of renewables keeps falling - A Los Angeles utility has just contracted with a solar/battery supplier for electricity at 1.99 cents/kWh from solar and 1.3 cents from battery

Coal and gas on notice, as US big solar and battery deal stuns market (https://reneweconomy.com.au/coal-and-gas-on-notice-as-us-big-solar-and-battery-deal-stuns-market-60011/?utm_source=RE+Daily+Newsletter&utm_campaign=1ff15a114b-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_07_03_02_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_46a1943223-1ff15a114b-40329085)

If wind and solar and storage are beating fossil fuels in fair market competition, in both cost and reliability, then good for them!

Ian Murray
04-07-2019, 01:36 PM
The markets. If your previous post (reproduced below) is right, then this supports that contention.



If wind and solar and storage are beating fossil fuels in fair market competition, in both cost and reliability, then good for them!

Free markets can do a great deal, with assistance only governments can provide:

Carbon Tax: The Ultimate Free Market Solution To Climate Change (https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkobayashisolomon/2019/01/25/a-carbon-tax-the-ultimate-free-market-solution-climate-change/#48e48c496bfb)

Patrick Byrom
04-07-2019, 03:41 PM
They are taught the science at school. Kids start learning basic science in their first year or two at school - basic climate science is well within their grasp in high school.And they specifically study the natural and man-made greenhouse effects in Years 9 and 10: VCSSU128 (https://victoriancurriculum.vcaa.vic.edu.au/Curriculum/ContentDescription/VCSSU128).

MichaelBaron
04-07-2019, 09:13 PM
And they specifically study the natural and man-made greenhouse effects in Years 9 and 10: VCSSU128 (https://victoriancurriculum.vcaa.vic.edu.au/Curriculum/ContentDescription/VCSSU128).

At year 9 level they understand such a complex issue? and if they protest against particular activities, shall I assume they understand how these specific activities damage and how...and how things will be better without those? I better ask kids in the chess club how much they know about this...and other science subjects :)

antichrist
05-07-2019, 12:01 AM
While I love your story antichrist – in case you need any more details you could do worse than this: earthobservatory.nasa.gov-EnergyBalance (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/EnergyBalance/page1.php)

………....[/I][/INDENT]

Some people will accept existence of a god or higher being though there is absolutely no evidence for such but will deny climate change though all the scientific evidence for it, and this is by intelligent people on this board so what hope is there for the world?? People want to remain dumb, denying and selfish that is why I don't bother debating much. They fit in between Pauline Hanson and Donald Trump.

Patrick Byrom
05-07-2019, 12:15 AM
At year 9 level they understand such a complex issue?What's complex? Carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) act like a blanket/greenhouse and prevent heat from escaping, and the more carbon dioxide we add the more heat is trapped, so the hotter the earth becomes.

and if they protest against particular activities, shall I assume they understand how these specific activities damage and how...and how things will be better without those? I better ask kids in the chess club how much they know about this...and other science subjects :)They know that we need to restrict the amount of carbon dioxide we add to the atmosphere. They also know that burning coal adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, so that's one of the things they're protesting about.

Ian Murray
05-07-2019, 03:35 PM
What's complex? Carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) act like a blanket/greenhouse and prevent heat from escaping, and the more carbon dioxide we add the more heat is trapped, so the hotter the earth becomes.
They know that we need to restrict the amount of carbon dioxide we add to the atmosphere. They also know that burning coal adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, so that's one of the things they're protesting about.

Understanding the basics makes it easy to understand earth's energy budget:

3841

Capablanca-Fan
06-07-2019, 02:23 AM
That's a good diagram. So what part do you think the opponents of AGW alarmism (who are not ‘climate deniers’) (https://cornwallalliance.org/2019/07/evangelicals-arent-climate-deniers) dispute?

I would take the alarmists more seriously if they got rid of their private jets, i.e. act like it's the crisis they claim. In general, leftist politicians, bureaucrats, and activists need to eat their own cooking if they want the rest of us to taste it.

Note also, that diagram should make us skeptical that solar power can replace fossil fuel and nuclear power, because radiation that gets through to the surface is only 161 W/m².

MichaelBaron
06-07-2019, 03:42 AM
Understanding the basics makes it easy to understand earth's energy budget:

3841

You think its easy? Public school kids in average public school can grasp it? Please :) :) :).
I can think of adults who would find it rather difficult.

Ian Murray
06-07-2019, 09:16 AM
You think its easy? Public school kids in average public school can grasp it? Please :) :) :).
I can think of adults who would find it rather difficult.

Adults didn't learn climate science at school. Kids today do. When the energy budget is in balance, energy inflows equal outflows and the earth maintains a habitable temperature range. But, as can be seen in the diagram, the budget is out of balance and we're gaining energy at a rate of 0.91 watts per square metre.

Understanding the energy budget leads to understanding how climate models work, calculating various scenarios by increasing/decreasing energy flow components.

Patrick Byrom
06-07-2019, 02:17 PM
That's a good diagram. So what part do you think the opponents of AGW alarmism (who are not ‘climate deniers’) (https://cornwallalliance.org/2019/07/evangelicals-arent-climate-deniers) dispute?That as we continue to increase the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere the temperatures will continue to increase (which is implied by the diagram).


I would take the alarmists more seriously if they got rid of their private jets, ... So you'll take seriously any 'alarmist' that doesn't have a private jet!?


Note also, that diagram should make us skeptical that solar power can replace fossil fuel and nuclear power, because radiation that gets through to the surface is only 161 W/m².Only 184 W/m² actually, which is an enormous amount.

Patrick Byrom
06-07-2019, 02:53 PM
You think its easy? Public school kids in average public school can grasp it? Please :) :) :). I can think of adults who would find it rather difficult.What's difficult about understanding that carbon dioxide acts like a blanket/greenhouse, and traps heat? Ian's diagram is very informative, but not essential for that understanding.

And don't underestimate Year 9 students. Here is a question from the 2016 Year 9 NAPLAN test, which was correctly answered by 80% of students. I wonder how many adults could correctly answer it?

3844

Ian Murray
06-07-2019, 02:55 PM
That's a good diagram. So what part do you think the opponents of AGW alarmism (who are not ‘climate deniers’) (https://cornwallalliance.org/2019/07/evangelicals-arent-climate-deniers) dispute?

Well, the article you cite makes some questionable assumptions, e.g.


Recent global temperature levels (1999–2018) indicate that carbon dioxide emissions from human activity have little to no measurable effect on rising temperatures

This became evident when the computer climate models used by climate scientists failed to predict the apparent slowdown in warming during the past two decades.

Little to no measurable effect? Slowdown during the last two decades? Look at the graph:

3842
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/


The Roman Warm Period and Medieval Warm Period (during the 1st and 10th centuries A.D.) were remarkably similar to the Modern Warm Period (18th century to present).

No they weren't

3843
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/global-warming/last-2000-years


I would take the alarmists more seriously if they got rid of their private jets, i.e. act like it's the crisis they claim. In general, leftist politicians, bureaucrats, and activists need to eat their own cooking if they want the rest of us to taste it.

Penny ante stuff. Look at the big picture, e.g. the European Parliament, with public support, voted for a total elimination of coal energy generation by 2030
Beyond Coal: Phase-Out Policies in the EU and Implications for the United States (https://climate.org/beyond-coal-phase-out-policies-in-the-eu-and-implications-for-the-united-states/)


Note also, that diagram should make us skeptical that solar power can replace fossil fuel and nuclear power, because radiation that gets through to the surface is only 161 W/m².
,
The proof is in the pudding. There are already thousands of solar farms and millions of rooftop PV arrays generating power from that 161 Wm-², and growing exponentially.

Blunderbuss
06-07-2019, 05:21 PM
Meanwhile the heatwaves keep on coming: Alaska sees record temperatures (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-48890556)

This caught my eye too: Greta Thunberg welcomes oil chiefs greatest threat label (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/05/biggest-compliment-yet-greta-thunberg-welcomes-oil-chiefs-greatest-threat-label)


He said the pressure was also being felt within the families of Opec officials because their own children “are asking us about their future because … they see their peers on the streets campaigning against this industry”

Ian Murray
06-07-2019, 08:37 PM
'Biggest compliment yet': Greta Thunberg welcomes oil chief's 'greatest threat' label (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/05/biggest-compliment-yet-greta-thunberg-welcomes-oil-chiefs-greatest-threat-label)
The Guardian
6.7.19

Greta Thunberg and other climate activists have said it is a badge of honour that the head of the world’s most powerful oil cartel believes their campaign may be the “greatest threat” to the fossil fuel industry.

The criticism of striking students by the trillion-dollar Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) highlights the growing reputational concerns of oil companies as public protests intensify along with extreme weather.

Mohammed Barkindo, the secretary general of Opec, said there was a growing mass mobilisation of world opinion against oil, which was “beginning to … dictate policies and corporate decisions, including investment in the industry”....

Insurance companies – which have the most to lose from storms, floods, fires and other extreme weather – are increasingly pulling investment from fossil fuel assets. The governor of the Bank of England has warned of growing climate risks to the financial sector.

Earlier this week, the London Stock Exchange reclassified oil and gas companies under a non-renewable energy category that effectively puts them on the wrong side of climate crisis....

Scientists are also backing a phaseout of fossil fuels as the signs of climate disruption grow more evident.

In the past two weeks, temperature records have been broken in France, Alaska and Cuba; there have been wildfires in Germany, Spain, Sweden and Anchorage; Chennai is among more than a dozen Indian cities running out of water; Russia is experiencing historic floods; Mexico experienced freak hailstorm that left Guadalajara streets more than a metre deep in ice; while the Chinese meteorological agency said records had been broken at 40 weather stations....

MichaelBaron
06-07-2019, 10:13 PM
Well, the article you cite makes some questionable assumptions, e.g.


Recent global temperature levels (1999–2018) indicate that carbon dioxide emissions from human activity have little to no measurable effect on rising temperatures

This became evident when the computer climate models used by climate scientists failed to predict the apparent slowdown in warming during the past two decades.

Little to no measurable effect? Slowdown during the last two decades? Look at the graph:

3842
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/


The Roman Warm Period and Medieval Warm Period (during the 1st and 10th centuries A.D.) were remarkably similar to the Modern Warm Period (18th century to present).

No they weren't

3843
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/global-warming/last-2000-years



Penny ante stuff. Look at the big picture, e.g. the European Parliament, with public support, voted for a total elimination of coal energy generation by 2030
Beyond Coal: Phase-Out Policies in the EU and Implications for the United States (https://climate.org/beyond-coal-phase-out-policies-in-the-eu-and-implications-for-the-united-states/)


,
The proof is in the pudding. There are already thousands of solar farms and millions of rooftop PV arrays generating power from that 161 Wm-², and growing exponentially.

Is this for the kids as well ? :)

Ian Murray
07-07-2019, 07:44 AM
Is this for the kids as well ? :)

Replying to Capa-Fan actually. But the NASA and NOAA sites are simple to understand for high-schoolers. You might be able to follow them yourself, with a little effort.

Desmond
07-07-2019, 09:37 AM
Replying to Capa-Fan actually. But the NASA and NOAA sites are simple to understand for high-schoolers. You might be able to follow them yourself, with a little effort.

Hope springs eternal.

Ian Murray
08-07-2019, 05:26 PM
A dubious honour

Australia to become world’s biggest dealer in fossil fuel emissions (https://reneweconomy.com.au/australia-to-become-worlds-biggest-dealer-in-fossil-fuel-emissions-71881/)
Renew Economy
8.7.19

A new report from research firm Climate Analytics shows that current policy settings have Australia on a path to become the world’s largest dealer of fossil fuels, despite warnings that the global energy market is undergoing a fundamental shift away from coal and gas.

The report shows Australia on track to be responsible for up to 13% of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, as Australia ramps up its exports of coal and gas, while other countries shift away from the polluting fuels.

Australia currently produces 1.4% of global greenhouse gas emissions domestically, but the analysis shows that Australia is responsible for an even higher proportion of global emissions due to Australia’s leading position as an exporter of fossil fuels....

Blunderbuss
10-07-2019, 09:42 AM
David Attenborough young people give me hope on environment (https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/jul/09/david-attenborough-young-people-give-me-hope-on-environment)


The attitude of young people towards tackling the environmental crisis is “a source of great hope”, David Attenborough has told MPs, as he predicted that polluting the planet would soon provoke as much abhorrence as slavery.

David Attenborough takes aim at Australia for lack of climate action (https://www.sbs.com.au/news/david-attenborough-takes-aim-at-australia-for-lack-of-climate-action)

Australia on track to become one of the worlds worst climate damagers (https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australia-on-track-to-become-one-of-the-world-s-worst-climate-damagers)

antichrist
10-07-2019, 10:45 AM
That's a good diagram. So what part do you think the opponents of AGW alarmism (who are not ‘climate deniers’) (https://cornwallalliance.org/2019/07/evangelicals-arent-climate-deniers) dispute?

I would take the alarmists more seriously if they got rid of their private jets, i.e. act like it's the crisis they claim. In general, leftist politicians, bureaucrats, and activists need to eat their own cooking if they want the rest of us to taste it.

Note also, that diagram should make us skeptical that solar power can replace fossil fuel and nuclear power, because radiation that gets through to the surface is only 161 W/m².

Concerning those climate changers using private jets that is of course shocking but if the tree huggers were using bicycles they would get blasted by deniers as being hippies etc. and pillorised/isolated as not being part of "normal" society. How I would love to see sailing cruises where the passengers participate in getting the boat there. A slower society of course but a closer. fitter and warmer society and as well they would learn and understand the science of sailing, currents, winds etc. and get to appreciate the delicate world of which we survive in.

So what if we can't have energy unlimited 24/7? Where practical I will manoeuvre showers in my household, where possible, early so the midday sun can reheat the solar panels for the next shift. We don't get caught out often. Same thing about using cars, I make sure they are full when we go town-hopping and do many tasks to minimise trips. And we have God and chess - both of whom don't need much energy to appreciate and live a full and interesting life. Now even you will admit that.

Ian Murray
10-07-2019, 11:16 AM
Glacial melting in Antarctica may become irreversible (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/09/glacial-melting-in-antarctica-may-become-irreversible)
The Guardian
9.7.19

Antarctica faces a tipping point where glacial melting will accelerate and become irreversible even if global heating eases, research suggests.

A Nasa-funded study found instability in the Thwaites glacier meant there would probably come a point when it was impossible to stop it flowing into the sea and triggering a 50cm sea level rise. Other Antarctic glaciers were likely to be similarly unstable.

Recent research found the rate of ice loss from five Antarctic glaciers had doubled in six years and was five times faster than in the 1990s. Ice loss is spreading from the coast into the continent’s interior, with a reduction of more than 100 metres in thickness at some sites....

A separate study last week in the same journal found the expanse of sea ice around Antarctica had suffered a “precipitous” fall since 2014. Satellite data showed Antarctica lost as much sea ice in four years as the Arctic lost in 34 years.

Unlike the melting of ice sheets on land, sea ice melting does not raise sea levels but the loss of the reflective white ice leads to more of the sun’s heat being absorbed in the ocean, increasing the pace of heating....

Blunderbuss
10-07-2019, 11:36 AM
I cannot recommend this website highly enough How UK transformed electricity supply decade (https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/how-uk-transformed-electricity-supply-decade/)

A fascinating resource showing how the UK has transformed it's grid between 2008 and 2018. And in doing so demonstrates yet again that Australia is at least ten years behind.

3852

antichrist
10-07-2019, 11:53 AM
all great posts but about 40% of the population are like Trump's deplorables and want to hug their gas-guzzlers to the death of themselves and the planet, as Maria Antionette stated: feed them bikes

MichaelBaron
10-07-2019, 03:48 PM
all great posts but about 40% of the population are like Trump's deplorables and want to hug their gas-guzzlers to the death of themselves and the planet, as Maria Antionette stated: feed them bikes
The more generic/bigger issue is: if people do not understand what is going on...should they be protesting or not?

Ian Murray
10-07-2019, 04:12 PM
all great posts but about 40% of the population are like Trump's deplorables and want to hug their gas-guzzlers to the death of themselves and the planet, as Maria Antionette stated: feed them bikes

So it's a matter of changing the automotive market. Can be done - half Norwegian car sales (https://elbil.no/norway-reaches-historic-electric-car-market-share/) are now EVs.

Ian Murray
10-07-2019, 04:13 PM
The more generic/bigger issue is: if people do not understand what is going on...should they be protesting or not?

That issue exists only in your mind

antichrist
10-07-2019, 08:45 PM
The more generic/bigger issue is: if people do not understand what is going on...should they be protesting or not?

Being the devil's advocate a few weeks back when the school children walked out I challenged them pretending I was against them and they certainly knew the issues very well. So what are you basing your premise on?

MichaelBaron
10-07-2019, 11:11 PM
Being the devil's advocate a few weeks back when the school children walked out I challenged them pretending I was against them and they certainly knew the issues very well. So what are you basing your premise on?

Please...ask school children in a public school next time how to work out Interest for a loan over 20 years :). In Russia, it is grade 3 staff but I can recall getting such ''puzzles'' in year 11-12 in Australia :)

antichrist
10-07-2019, 11:25 PM
Please...ask school children in a public school next time how to work out Interest for a loan over 20 years :). In Russia, it is grade 3 staff but I can recall getting such ''puzzles'' in year 11-12 in Australia :)

Struth, your analogies are worse than mine and you were picking on me the other day.

MichaelBaron
11-07-2019, 04:21 AM
Struth, your analogies are worse than mine and you were picking on me the other day.

This is not an analogy but an explanation of the fact that majority of school kids in pubic schools lack sufficient knowledge to understand complex matters/processes.

Ian Murray
11-07-2019, 07:29 AM
Struth, your analogies are worse than mine and you were picking on me the other day.

You're wasting your time ac. He dorsn't understand climate science and can't grasp that modern-day schoolkids do.

antichrist
11-07-2019, 08:49 AM
Please...ask school children in a public school next time how to work out Interest for a loan over 20 years :). In Russia, it is grade 3 staff but I can recall getting such ''puzzles'' in year 11-12 in Australia :)
Maybe a very simple interest calculation you may have learnt in grade 3 but the full whammy of changing from variable to fixed half way through I doubt you learnt in grade 3. My public school chess teams thrashed the expensive private school teams for your info

antichrist
11-07-2019, 08:55 AM
This is not an analogy but an explanation of the fact that majority of school kids in pubic schools lack sufficient knowledge to understand complex matters/processes.

It is not a complex issue I believe my fishpond analogy proves it is a simple issue for which very little scientific knowledge is necessary. I can provide pic of said fishpond if that would assist you

Patrick Byrom
11-07-2019, 01:37 PM
Maybe a very simple interest calculation you may have learnt in grade 3 but the full whammy of changing from variable to fixed half way through I doubt you learnt in grade 3. My public school chess teams thrashed the expensive private school teams for your infoInternational comparisons (https://www.businessinsider.com.au/pisa-worldwide-ranking-of-math-science-reading-skills-2016-12) show that Russia is not significantly ahead of Australia in maths. And this NAPLAN test (https://acaraweb.blob.core.windows.net/acaraweb/docs/default-source/assessment-and-reporting-publications/30-naplan-2016-final-test-numeracy-year-9-calc.pdf?sfvrsn=2) shows that simple interest is studied in Year 9.

MichaelBaron
11-07-2019, 02:04 PM
International comparisons (https://www.businessinsider.com.au/pisa-worldwide-ranking-of-math-science-reading-skills-2016-12) show that Russia is not significantly ahead of Australia in maths. And this NAPLAN test (https://acaraweb.blob.core.windows.net/acaraweb/docs/default-source/assessment-and-reporting-publications/30-naplan-2016-final-test-numeracy-year-9-calc.pdf?sfvrsn=2) shows that simple interest is studied in Year 9.

You can also say that India and China are not ahead of Australia because there are poor kids in India who do not go to school...Re ''simple'' Interest: how about compound interest? By the way, I clearly remember solving interest related problems in year 11..and that was Melbourne High school :)

Ian Murray
11-07-2019, 03:00 PM
You can also say that India and China are not ahead of Australia because there are poor kids in India who do not go to school...Re ''simple'' Interest: how about compound interest? By the way, I clearly remember solving interest related problems in year 11..and that was Melbourne High school :)

So you didn't learn about interest rates in Grade 3 after all :)

Ian Murray
11-07-2019, 03:06 PM
Here's a simple diagram you can understand - the carbon cycle

3853
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/CarbonCycle

The cycle has kept global temperatures livable for a long time, until human emissions began perturbing the equilibrium

Patrick Byrom
11-07-2019, 03:25 PM
You can also say that India and China are not ahead of Australia because there are poor kids in India who do not go to school...Only schoolchildren were tested.


Re ''simple'' Interest: how about compound interest? By the way, I clearly remember solving interest related problems in year 11..and that was Melbourne High school :)Year 11 compound interest (http://downloads.cambridge.edu.au/education/qldmaths/QMB11.pdf):
3856

Blunderbuss
11-07-2019, 03:28 PM
ABC Radio Hobart this morning got some [real] Scientists to respond to Climate Change sceptics. For some reason they didn't invite Alan Jones: ABC radio Hobart curious climate sceptics (https://www.abc.net.au/radio/hobart/programs/mornings/curious-climate-sceptics/11299646)

MichaelBaron
11-07-2019, 05:01 PM
Only schoolchildren were tested.

Year 11 compound interest (http://downloads.cambridge.edu.au/education/qldmaths/QMB11.pdf):
3856

Yes. so this is year 11 ...and this was Melbourne High School! One of best schools i suppose.
If this is year 11..what do they do in year 7? :)

antichrist
11-07-2019, 08:46 PM
Yes. so this is year 11 ...and this was Melbourne High School! One of best schools i suppose.
If this is year 11..what do they do in year 7? :)

Year 11 is the relevant year to teach as they will soon be leaving school and may need such knowledge. They probably cannot take out a loan to age 18 years. Not everyone is a Donald Trump son with their dad giving them millions since primary school.

Patrick Byrom
11-07-2019, 11:51 PM
Yes. so this is year 11 ...and this was Melbourne High School! One of best schools i suppose.Huh!? The example I provided is from a Qld Maths B textbook - Maths B is studied at most (probably all) high schools.

If this is year 11..what do they do in year 7? :)Not too many Year 7s would be part of the climate marches.

Blunderbuss
12-07-2019, 11:19 AM
Why don’t we let Greta speak for the children…


Thunberg readily concurs. “I have spoken to many politicians who ask me ‘What do you think about this?’, and it’s just insane,” she says. “We are not doing this because we have solutions and we want to be the ones in power, we are just messengers. We are just children and we cannot solve this. We cannot wait for us to grow up and become the ones in charge because by then it will be too late.” In her speech to the UK parliament, she was not optimistic, noting that despite the strikers' accomplishments, the greenhouse-gas emission curve was still rising.

Scientists, too, back the youth activists – in March 2019, more than 12,000 of them signed a letter in support of the youth protests. “She and her colleagues have great moral authority – they’ll have to live with these changes all their lives,” says climate scholar Bill McKibben. “They can call on the rest of us to act, and they have. And I think many people will choose to answer.”
...
Thunberg is neither hopeful nor pessimistic about the future of our planet – she is firmly grounded in the present, trying to change what she can now. “I have just decided that I will do this even if there is no hope. Not having hope is not an excuse for not doing something,” she says. “Everyone says different things. Some say we are already screwed and some say we still have time.” Her message, as always, is calm and clear. “I just hope that this movement will continue and we do something about the climate – because that is the only thing that matters.”

Greta Thunberg Climate Crisis (https://www.wired.co.uk/article/greta-thunberg-climate-crisis)
Amelia Tait
WIRED – 6 June 2019

Ian Murray
12-07-2019, 01:12 PM
Why don’t we let Greta speak for the children…


Thunberg readily concurs. “I have spoken to many politicians who ask me ‘What do you think about this?’, and it’s just insane,” she says. “We are not doing this because we have solutions and we want to be the ones in power, we are just messengers. We are just children and we cannot solve this. We cannot wait for us to grow up and become the ones in charge because by then it will be too late.” In her speech to the UK parliament, she was not optimistic, noting that despite the strikers' accomplishments, the greenhouse-gas emission curve was still rising.

Scientists, too, back the youth activists – in March 2019, more than 12,000 of them signed a letter in support of the youth protests. “She and her colleagues have great moral authority – they’ll have to live with these changes all their lives,” says climate scholar Bill McKibben. “They can call on the rest of us to act, and they have. And I think many people will choose to answer.”
...
Thunberg is neither hopeful nor pessimistic about the future of our planet – she is firmly grounded in the present, trying to change what she can now. “I have just decided that I will do this even if there is no hope. Not having hope is not an excuse for not doing something,” she says. “Everyone says different things. Some say we are already screwed and some say we still have time.” Her message, as always, is calm and clear. “I just hope that this movement will continue and we do something about the climate – because that is the only thing that matters.”

Greta Thunberg Climate Crisis (https://www.wired.co.uk/article/greta-thunberg-climate-crisis)
Amelia Tait
WIRED – 6 June 2019

:clap: :clap: :clap:

Ian Murray
12-07-2019, 02:04 PM
Coal left Appalachia devastated. Now it’s doing the same to Wyoming (https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/7/9/20684815/coal-wyoming-bankruptcy-blackjewel-appalachia)
Vox
9.7.19

Wyoming is facing a potential crisis. Coal mines have shut down, hundreds of people are out of work, unemployment offices are overwhelmed, and there appears to be worse to come.

The coal industry, long seen as a friend and economic linchpin in the state, is falling apart, and the very communities that have supported it most are getting screwed over in the process.

This wasn’t supposed to happen in Wyoming. After all, it’s not like Appalachian coal country (West Virginia, eastern Kentucky, and Pennsylvania, along with eastern Ohio and parts of Alabama, Maryland, Tennessee, and Virginia).

Appalachia, which has been ground into codependent poverty by the coal industry over the course of a century, has been declining, in coal output and employment, for decades. Lately it has only gotten worse, as companies declare bankruptcy, executives get healthy bonuses, polluted coal mines are abandoned, and miners and retirees are denied long-promised health benefits and pensions.

But it has long been industry conventional wisdom that Western coal would continue to prosper, at least for a while. The coal boom in the Powder River Basin — the largest coal basin in the US, the source of 40 percent of American coal, spanning northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana — dates back to the early 1970s. It has resulted in a few large companies with deep local roots, their taxes funding infrastructure and schools. Their steady profitability has made coal the heart of several Western communities. There are 13,000 coal-dependent jobs in the PRB.

It’s beginning to look like conventional wisdom was wrong. Western coal is declining too, and as it does, vulture capitalists are buying up mines, squeezing out the last bit of profits, and declaring bankruptcy, leaving behind an environmental mess and workers without jobs or pensions. ...

Ian Murray
14-07-2019, 09:33 AM
The California coast is disappearing under the rising sea. Our choices are grim (https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-me-sea-level-rise-california-coast/?utm_source=Essential+California&utm_campaign=3f960a4c4a-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2016_12_12_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6e35f7f85b-3f960a4c4a-84295041)
LA Times
7.7.19

...Elsewhere, Miami has been drowning, Louisiana shrinking, North Carolina’s beaches disappearing like a time lapse with no ending. While other regions grappled with destructive waves and rising seas, the West Coast for decades was spared by a rare confluence of favorable winds and cooler water. This “sea level rise suppression,” as scientists call it, went largely undetected. Blinded from the consequences of a warming planet, Californians kept building right to the water’s edge.

But lines in the sand are meant to shift. In the last 100 years, the sea rose less than 9 inches in California. By the end of this century, the surge could be greater than 9 feet.

Wildfire and drought dominate the climate change debates in the state. Yet this less-talked-about reality has California cornered. The coastline is eroding with every tide and storm, but everything built before we knew better — Pacific Coast Highway, multimillion-dollar homes in Malibu, the rail line to San Diego — is fixed in place with nowhere to go.

But the world is getting hotter, the great ice sheets still melting, the rising ocean a slow-moving disaster that has already swept past California’s front door. ...

Much of California’s climate change efforts have centered on reducing carbon emissions and the rate of global warming, rather than dealing with how to live with these increasing hazards, said Heather Cooley, research director of the Pacific Institute, an Oakland think tank that has studied the economic impact of sea level rise.

“We need to do both,” she said. “We’re already locked into a certain amount of climate change, and we need to adapt to the effects that we know we’re going to be experiencing.”...

Ian Murray
14-07-2019, 12:36 PM
'Just a matter of when': the $20bn plan to power Singapore with Australian solar (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/14/just-a-matter-of-when-the-20bn-plan-to-power-singapore-with-australian-solar?utm_term=RWRpdG9yaWFsX0d1YXJkaWFuVG9kYXlBVVM tMTkwNzE0&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayAUS&CMP=GTAU_email)
The Guardian
14.7.19

Ambitious export plan could generate billions and make Australia the centre of low-cost energy in a future zero-carbon world...

antichrist
14-07-2019, 12:48 PM
We can celebrate the great breakthroughs in technology that can help prevent CC in a convenient manner but if those technologies were not available how much would we be achieving? Due to lack of proper leadership I think very little. I would contend that even Eco-cars still create a lot of pollution in their building.

Ian Murray
14-07-2019, 06:58 PM
We can celebrate the great breakthroughs in technology that can help prevent CC in a convenient manner

It is too late now to prevent climate change. All we can do is try to alleviate some of the impacts, while we ride it out for a few centuries (assuming that we fully decarbonise)


but if those technologies were not available how much would we be achieving? Due to lack of proper leadership I think very little.

The one thing we can count on is the development of new technologies


I would contend that even Eco-cars still create a lot of pollution in their building.

Of course, as do internal-combustion cars. As production runs increase and greater economies of scale are achieved, externalities will decline.

Why are EVs more expensive? Is it really just the battery costs? (https://thedriven.io/2018/11/30/ev-price-tipping-point-automakers/)

Capablanca-Fan
15-07-2019, 03:38 AM
Why don’t we let Greta speak for the children…

Who says that she speaks for children?

The cult of Greta Thunberg (https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/04/22/the-cult-of-greta-thunberg/)
This young woman sounds increasingly like a millenarian weirdo.
Brendan O'Neill, 22 April 2019

It struck me that this was a march against people. Most radical protest and direct action is aimed at officialdom or government or people with power. This macabre schlep through London was aimed squarely at ordinary people. Banners and placards made no disguise of the marchers’ contempt for how the masses live. We were told that ‘Meat = heat’ (that is, if you carry on eating meat, you fat bastards, the planet will get even hotter) and that driving and flying are destroying Mother Earth. Of course, it’s okay for them to fly – Emma Thompson jetted first-class from LA to London to lecture us plebs about all our eco-destructive holidaymaking. It’s only a problem when we do it; it’s only bad when we take advantage of the miracle of mass food production and the expansion of flight to make our lives fuller and more pleasurable. They detest that. They detest mass society and its inhabitants: the masses.

In keeping with all millenarian movements, the extinction-obsessed green cult reserves its priestly fury for ordinary people. Even when it is putting pressure on the government, it is really asking it to punish us. It wants tighter controls on car-driving, restrictions on flying, green taxes on meat. That these things would severely hit the pockets of ordinary people – but not the deep pockets of Emma Thompson and the double-barrelled eco-snobs who run Extinction Rebellion – is immaterial to the angry bourgeoisie. So convinced are they of their own goodness, and of our wickedness, that they think it is utterly acceptable for officialdom to make our lives harder in order to strongarm us into being more ‘green’. People complaining about Extinction Rebellion disrupting people’s lives in London over the past few days are missing the point – the entire point of the green movement is to disrupt ordinary people’s lives, and even to immiserate them. All in the jumped-up name of ‘saving the planet’.

Young people, Ms Thunberg isn’t your leader. She’s a patsy for scared and elitist adults. Don’t do as she says. Instead, refuse to panic, mock the blather about hellfire, and appreciate that mankind’s transformation of the planet has been a glorious thing that has expanded life expectancy, allowed billions to live in cities, and made it possible for even the less well-off to travel the globe. Sin against St Greta.

Capablanca-Fan
15-07-2019, 03:40 AM
Are supercapacitors a better idea than batteries for many applications (https://microgridknowledge.com/supercapacitor-based-energy-storage/)?

Capablanca-Fan
15-07-2019, 05:33 AM
Sorry, banning plastic bags won’t save our planet (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-sorry-banning-plastic-bags-wont-save-our-planet)
BJØRN LOMBORG
CONTRIBUTED TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL
20 June 2019

Bjorn Lomborg is president of the Copenhagen Consensus Center.

Last week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a plan to reduce plastic pollution, which will include a ban on single-use plastics as early as 2021. This is laudable: plastics clog drains and cause floods, litter nature and kill animals and birds.

Of course, plastic also makes our lives better in a myriad of ways. In just four decades, plastic packaging has become ubiquitous because it keeps everything from cereals to juice fresher and reduces transportation losses, while one-use plastics in the medical sector have made syringes, pill bottles and diagnostic equipment more safe.

Going without disposable plastic entirely would leave us worse off, so we need to tackle the problems without losing all of the benefits.

The simplest action for consumers is to ensure that plastic is collected and used, so a grocery bag, for example, has a second life as a trash bag, and is then used for energy.

Moreover, banning plastic bags can have unexpected, inconvenient results. A new study shows California’s ban eliminates 40 million pounds of plastic annually. However, many banned bags would have been reused for trash, so consumption of trash bags went up by 12 million pounds, reducing the benefit. It also increased consumption of paper bags by twice the saved amount of plastic – 83 million pounds. This will lead to much larger emissions of CO₂.

We also need to consider the wider environmental impact of our bag choices. A 2018 study by the Danish Ministry of Environment and Food looked not just at plastic waste, but also at climate-change damage, ozone depletion, human toxicity and other indicators. It found you must reuse an organic cotton shopping bag 20,000 times before it will have less environmental damage than a plastic bag.

If we use the same shopping bag every single time we go to the store, twice every week, it will still take 191 years before the overall environmental effect of using the cotton bag is less than if we had just used plastic.

Even a simple paper bag requires 43 reuses to be better for the environment – far beyond the point at which the bag will be fit for the purpose.

Blunderbuss
15-07-2019, 10:10 AM
Who says that she speaks for children?


Brendan O’Neill is just an Internet troll who’s views on any subject can be safely ignored: https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1120564399083859970 (https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1120564399083859970)

3859

Unable to deal with her potent arguments, people are resorting to lazy, personal attacks.

Patrick Byrom
15-07-2019, 01:34 PM
Brendan O’Neill is just an Internet troll who’s views on any subject can be safely ignored: https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1120564399083859970 (https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1120564399083859970)
...
Unable to deal with her potent arguments, people are resorting to lazy, personal attacks.Capablanca-Fan already posted that item a few months ago:

The cult of Greta Thunberg (https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/04/22/the-cult-of-greta-thunberg/)
This young woman sounds increasingly like a millenarian weirdo. Brendan O'Neill, Spiked, 22 April 2019
Anyone who doubts that the green movement is morphing into a millenarian cult should take a close look at Greta Thunberg. This poor young woman increasingly looks and sounds like a cult member. The monotone voice. The look of apocalyptic dread in her eyes. The explicit talk of the coming great ‘fire’ that will punish us for our eco-sins. There is something chilling and positively pre-modern about Ms Thunberg. One can imagine her in a sparse wooden church in the Plymouth Colony in the 1600s warning parishioners of the hellfire that will rain upon them if they fail to give up their witches…
Although at least this time he left out O'Neill's mockery of Thunberg's Asperger's Syndrome.

Ian Murray
15-07-2019, 04:22 PM
Sorry, banning plastic bags won’t save our planet (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-sorry-banning-plastic-bags-wont-save-our-planet)
BJØRN LOMBORG
CONTRIBUTED TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL
20 June 2019
...

We also need to consider the wider environmental impact of our bag choices. A 2018 study by the Danish Ministry of Environment and Food looked not just at plastic waste, but also at climate-change damage, ozone depletion, human toxicity and other indicators. It found you must reuse an organic cotton shopping bag 20,000 times before it will have less environmental damage than a plastic bag.

If we use the same shopping bag every single time we go to the store, twice every week, it will still take 191 years before the overall environmental effect of using the cotton bag is less than if we had just used plastic.

Even a simple paper bag requires 43 reuses to be better for the environment – far beyond the point at which the bag will be fit for the purpose.


Missing the point. The aim of the single-use plastics bans (which include but are not restricted to shopping bags) is to cut back the mountains of plastic waste dumped each year into the environment. A significant proportion winds up in the oceans, e.g. the Great Pacific Garbage Patch (https://theoceancleanup.com/great-pacific-garbage-patch/)

antichrist
15-07-2019, 09:29 PM
Missing the point. The aim of the single-use plastics bans (which include but are not restricted to shopping bags) is to cut back the mountains of plastic waste dumped each year into the environment. A significant proportion winds up in the oceans, e.g. the Great Pacific Garbage Patch (https://theoceancleanup.com/great-pacific-garbage-patch/)

In my day we used cane or straw baskets , we made the cane ones at school instead useless computer courses.

Ian Murray
16-07-2019, 10:00 AM
Missing the point. The aim of the single-use plastics bans (which include but are not restricted to shopping bags) is to cut back the mountains of plastic waste dumped each year into the environment. A significant proportion winds up in the oceans, e.g. the Great Pacific Garbage Patch (https://theoceancleanup.com/great-pacific-garbage-patch/)

I forgot to call out Lomborg's trademark cherry-picking. He highlights the worst-case scenarios, with no mention of the best alternatives. The shopping bag kindest to the environment when factoring in life-cycle effects (after PET bags) is the ubiquitous green bag, as long as it's used more than 23 times, according to Peter Allan, Principal Consultant at Hyder Consulting and author of numerous studies for the government on the impact of plastic bags, including reports advising which system would be kindest to the environment:


Overall, a reusable bag is a better option for the environment than bags with between one and three typical uses. "Given the popularity of the green bags, we needed to test whether reusable was better for the environment and this was comprehensively proven – but only so long as you use it repeatedly over a long period," says Allan.
A green bag has to be used more than 23 times before it becomes a better option than single-use bags.
Of the range of reusable bag types tested, the most environmentally-friendly option was the 100% recycled content PET reusable bag, closely followed by the reusable green bag.
Calico bags aren't recommended, because of the amount of water used to make them.

https://www.choice.com.au/shopping/everyday-shopping/supermarkets/articles/sustainable-shopping-bags

Kevin Bonham
16-07-2019, 12:26 PM
The shopping bag kindest to the environment when factoring in life-cycle effects (after PET bags) is the ubiquitous green bag, as long as it's used more than 23 times, according to Peter Allan, Principal Consultant at Hyder Consulting and author of numerous studies for the government on the impact of plastic bags, including reports advising which system would be kindest to the environment:

23 uses seems ambitious. I normally use reusable bags available from supermarkets here for around 15 cents. But from time to time a convenient opportunity to shop at a supermarket comes up unexpectedly and I will have to buy more such bags. As a result I have a stockpile of about 20 of the things. I doubt that on average I would end up using them 23 times each.

Blunderbuss
16-07-2019, 12:34 PM
There was a debate during the Federal election campaign about what was known (or not known) about climate change in the 70’s. Since then I have come across a paper written in 1979 for the US government by the JASON (advisory group) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JASON_(advisory_group))

The report can be read here: https://fas.org/irp/agency/dod/jason/co2.pdf (https://fas.org/irp/agency/dod/jason/co2.pdf)

The abstract reads: -



If the current growth rate in the use of fossil fuels continues
at 4.3% per year, then the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere can
be expected to double by about 2035 provided the current partition
of CO2 between the biosphere and oceans Is maintained as
is the current mix of fuels. Slower rates of anticipated growth of
energy lead to a doubling of the carbon content of the atmosphere
sometime in the period 2040 to 2060.

This report addresses the questions of the sources of atmospheric
carbon dioxide. considers distribution of the present carbon dioxide
among the atmospheric. oceanic and biospherlc reservoir and assesses
the impact on climate as reflected by the average ground temperature at
each latitude of significant Increases In atmospheric carbon dioxide.

The Oceana and the biosphere, including the soils, store very large
amounts of carbon compared with that in the atmosphere. Small changes
In these large reservoirs can have a major effect on the atmosphere.
Neither the ocean-atmosphere nor the atmosphere—biosphere Interfaces
are understood. Ln regard to the former we propose a new model
for the nixing Of carbon dioxide in the oceans. The proposed model
explicitly into account the flow Of colder/ and or saltier water
to great depths. Such models provide a means for the evaluation of the
oceanic carbon dioxide mixing without resort to the use of box model
which with adjusted effective diffusion parameters. The atmosphere—
biosphere Interface is significantly more complex. It is clear,
however, that data on several key questions are needed: (1) clear and
detailed Information on the rapid turnover time of life forms in the
oceans (2) Information on the possibility that biologically derived
organic debris in shallow seas could be buried and thus effectively
removed from the oceans (3) the reservoir of carbon in the soils is
thought to be about five times the amount in the atmosphere but the
fraction Of that carbon which can communicate with the atmosphere is
not known.

Increasing CO2 In the atmosphere perturbs climate by altering
the radiative properties Of the atmosphere. The resulting climate
change has been calculated through highly parameterized analytic models
of the ocean-atmosphere system or by large computer models. We have
adopted the first approach starting with an atmosphere locally in radiative
equilibrium and then allowing meridional transport of heat. We
have constructed two models for the case of radiative equilibrium

treating the atmosphere as gray and dividing the Infrared emission
region into nine bands. The gray atmosphere model predicts an
increase of average surface temperature of 2.8 K for a doubling of
CO2, a result about a degree less than the nine band model.
In the model the principal effect of increasing CO2 is to enhance
the absorption by weak CO2 bands in 8—12 micron region. Trace gases,
CH4, N20, NH3, freons and hydrocarbons can also block Off the atmospheric
window.

An analytic model of the atmosphere has been constructed (JASON
Climate model) . Calculation with chis zonally averaged model shove
an increase Of average surface temperature of 2.4 degrees for a doubling of
CO2 . The equatorial temperature increases by 0.7 K while the poles
warm up by 10 to 12 K.

The JASON climate model suffers from a number of fundamental
weaknesses. The role of clouds In determining the albedo is not adequately
taken into account nor are the asymmetries between the northern
and southern hemisphere. We expect, however, that models intermediate
between the large GCMs and the primitive analytic models can yield
Insights Into the nature of climate change.

The warming of climate will not necessarily lead to improved
living conditions everywhere. Changes In sea level, in agricultural
productivity and in water availability can be anticipated, but the
dimensions Of their economic, political or social consequences can not.

Do not bother replying telling me what they got wrong just marvel at what they got right. Hand typed and computer modelling with less processing power than my smartphone. It is astounding that this was presented (at the highest level) in April 1979. It has withstood the scrutiny of the 40 years that followed it and yet we still fail to act, no wonder the next generation is angry with us.

Desmond
16-07-2019, 01:51 PM
Bjorn Lomborg is president of the Copenhagen Consensus Center.
Belongs in the oxymoron thread.
Lomborg is a denialist from way back.

Capablanca-Fan
16-07-2019, 02:37 PM
Belongs in the oxymoron thread.
Lomborg is a denialist from way back.

No he's not. He thinks AGW is real and a problem. He just thinks that the usual government-proposed solutions are misguided, and he proposed ideas that will help far more people while costing far less.

Capablanca-Fan
16-07-2019, 02:52 PM
I forgot to call out Lomborg's trademark cherry-picking. He highlights the worst-case scenarios, with no mention of the best alternatives. The shopping bag kindest to the environment when factoring in life-cycle effects (after PET bags) is the ubiquitous green bag, as long as it's used more than 23 times, according to Peter Allan, Principal Consultant at Hyder Consulting and author of numerous studies for the government on the impact of plastic bags, including reports advising which system would be kindest to the environment:


Overall, a reusable bag is a better option for the environment than bags with between one and three typical uses. "Given the popularity of the green bags, we needed to test whether reusable was better for the environment and this was comprehensively proven – but only so long as you use it repeatedly over a long period," says Allan.
A green bag has to be used more than 23 times before it becomes a better option than single-use bags.
Of the range of reusable bag types tested, the most environmentally-friendly option was the 100% recycled content PET reusable bag, closely followed by the reusable green bag.
Calico bags aren't recommended, because of the amount of water used to make them.

https://www.choice.com.au/shopping/everyday-shopping/supermarkets/articles/sustainable-shopping-bags

But PET is a type of plastic too.

Capablanca-Fan
16-07-2019, 02:54 PM
Brendan O’Neill is just an Internet troll who’s views on any subject can be safely ignored: https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1120564399083859970 (https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1120564399083859970)

3859

Unable to deal with her potent arguments, people are resorting to lazy, personal attacks.

Big deal. Hitler changed the course of history too. But keep listening to a child if you want to.

Desmond
16-07-2019, 03:34 PM
No he's not. He thinks AGW is real and a problem. He just thinks that the usual government-proposed solutions are misguided, and he proposed ideas that will help far more people while costing far less.

Actually, he mis-represents the extent of the problem. Cites studies and mis-represents them. See here (http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/news/bjorn-lomborgs-lukewarmer-misinformation-about-climate-change-and-poverty/). Classic denialist.

The opposite of consensus.

Ian Murray
16-07-2019, 03:51 PM
23 uses seems ambitious. I normally use reusable bags available from supermarkets here for around 15 cents. But from time to time a convenient opportunity to shop at a supermarket comes up unexpectedly and I will have to buy more such bags. As a result I have a stockpile of about 20 of the things. I doubt that on average I would end up using them 23 times each.

Those 15c bags are recycled PET - eight uses equal the climate change impact of the old single-use bag (https://qz.com/1585027/when-it-comes-to-climate-change-cotton-totes-might-be-worse-than-plastic/), but 84 uses necessary to have same cumulative environmental impact (water use, energy use, etc.).
The 99c green bag is woven polypropylene at five and 45 uses respectively, based on the Danish study cited by Lomborg. Woolies will give you a free replacement when they wear out.

I've got a dozen or so green bags round the place, which we use for carrying all sorts of stuff around, as well as shopping. We wear them out with long use.

Ian Murray
16-07-2019, 03:52 PM
But PET is a type of plastic too.

Of course, but recycled plastic.

Patrick Byrom
16-07-2019, 05:57 PM
Those 15c bags are recycled PET - eight uses equal the climate change impact of the old single-use bag (https://qz.com/1585027/when-it-comes-to-climate-change-cotton-totes-might-be-worse-than-plastic/), but 84 uses necessary to have same cumulative environmental impact (water use, energy use, etc.).Those are pretty tough, and based on my experience they'll last a lot longer than that. I just wish the supermarkets made it easier to use 'proper' bags (backpacks, etc).

Kevin Bonham
16-07-2019, 07:53 PM
Big deal. Hitler changed the course of history too. But keep listening to a child if you want to.

Probably better than listening to Brendan O'Neill. Pretty much all of his output I've seen boils down to the idea that his contrarian trolling is special because he claims to be an atheist.

Ian Murray
17-07-2019, 09:45 AM
How Germany closed its coal industry without sacking a single miner (https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/how-germany-closed-its-coal-industry-without-sacking-a-single-miner-20190711-p526ez.html)
SMH
14.7.19

Patrick Byrom
22-07-2019, 11:44 PM
Waiting for the penalty hearing, still several weeks away:
(https://campusmorningmail.com.au/news/whats-next-for-james-cook-u-and-peter-ridd/)
James Cook U has kept its prow down since Judge Vasta found it wrongly sacked scientist Peter Ridd (CMM April 19). The university dismissed him for what it said was breaching its code of conduct in commenting on research at JCU. However, the judge found Dr Ridd’s comments were covered by clause 14 of the university’s enterprise agreement, which deals with academic freedom. There is no word on whether the university will appeal. But as to Dr Ridd returning to work (the university insists he is not a professor of the university because it does not presently employ him), this appears to depend on a court hearing on penalty, said to be on in July.
So Vasta has been stood down. And JCU will appeal his decision. Although Ridd will not be reinstated (https://www.afr.com/news/policy/health/judge-vasta-to-proceed-with-existing-cases-20190722-p529ik):


On Monday The Australian Financial Review revealed Judge Vasta had been stood down from administrative roles by the Chief Judge of the Federal Circuit Court, Will Alstergren, and was "receiving mentoring" to assist him to "fulfil his duties". Under Federal Court process, judges continue working on existing cases even when relieved of other duties or being counselled. That followed a recent appeal against a conviction in another case in which the Full Federal Court of the Family Court called Judge Vasta's conduct of the case "an affront to justice". ...

On Friday the university announced it would appeal any orders to be made by Judge Vasta in August. Dr Ridd told supporters on a crowd-funding website he was no longer seeking reinstatement because the actions of the university indicated "if I went back, I would have a very troubled existence that would also threaten all my colleagues in the Physics Department".

Capablanca-Fan
23-07-2019, 02:10 AM
Actually, he mis-represents the extent of the problem. Cites studies and mis-represents them. See here (http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/news/bjorn-lomborgs-lukewarmer-misinformation-about-climate-change-and-poverty/). Classic denialist.
Even your article calls him a ‘lukewarmer’ just because he refuses to accept the leftist big-government policies ostensibly to combat warming that he agrees is happening.


The opposite of consensus.
Consensus is not science but politics.

Kevin Bonham
23-07-2019, 12:06 PM
Posts moved

Moved posts about comparing Trump to Hitler to US politics thread.

Desmond
23-07-2019, 12:19 PM
Even your article calls him a ‘lukewarmer’ just because he refuses to accept the leftist big-government policies ostensibly to combat warming that he agrees is happening.


Consensus is not science but politics.Consensus is the term inappropriately used in Lomberg's company name, and is the opposite of what he's aiming for in the company. He's representing the view of vast minority, sometimes estimated at about 3% of people railing against climate change action.

His beef is not just with solutions - whether they should come from governement or not - but with the degree of the problem. Different things.

Ian Murray
24-07-2019, 04:55 PM
Consensus is the term inappropriately used in Lomberg's company name, and is the opposite of what he's aiming for in the company. He's representing the view of vast minority, sometimes estimated at about 3% of people railing against climate change action.

His beef is not just with solutions - whether they should come from governement or not - but with the degree of the problem. Different things.

Since the Danish government pulled the plug on funding, his "Consensus Center" operates from a post-box in Massachusetts. An attempt by Tony Abbott to fund it through an Australian university (https://theconversation.com/still-no-consensus-for-bjorn-lomborg-the-climate-change-refugee-45423) was thwarted by academia.

His proposed solutions to climate change are mitigation (sea walls etc) and geo-engineering (physically cooling the planet by e.g. blanketing the atmosphere with aerosols). The knock-on effects of geo-engineering, e.g. changing rainfall patterns, are unknown but carry substantial risks.

Ian Murray
24-07-2019, 07:01 PM
CEO of The Big Australian throws his weight behind massive climate action

BHP boss announces $US400m plan to combat 'indisputable' climate crisis (https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/23/bhp-boss-announces-us400m-plan-to-combat-indisputable-climate-crisis)
The Guardian
23.7.19

The chief executive of the world’s largest mining company has endorsed drastic action to combat global warming, which he calls “indisputable”, and an emerging crisis.

“The planet will survive. Many species may not,” the BHP chief executive officer, Andrew Mackenzie, told a business breakfast in London on Tuesday. “This is a confronting conclusion but as a veteran geologist once said, ‘you can’t argue with a rock’.”

Mackenzie endorsed carbon pricing but said it was not enough to combat the looming threat of mass extinctions and major sea rises.
BHP reveals five mine dams at 'extreme' risk of causing damage and loss of life
Read more

He announced BHP was spending $US400m ($A570m) to create a climate investment program to reduce emissions from its own operations as well as those generated from its resources.

BHP has been working to reduce its emissions since the 1990s but still directly produced 16.5m tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions in the 2017/18 fiscal year, mostly from energy and diesel use at its operations...

But when one adds to the equation customers’ use of BHP’s products – most notably the processing of iron ore and the burning of coal and crude oil – BHP’s indirect emissions dwarfed that, totalling 596.4m tonnes of carbon dioxide for the fiscal year.

That’s equivalent of the emissions produced in a year by 126m cars or 153 coal-fired power plants, according to the EPA calculator.

“Use of emissions-intensive products from the resource industry have contributed significantly to global warming,” Mackenzie said, while noting that BHP’s emissions in 2017 were less than those in 2006.

BHP has a short-term goal to cap 2022 emissions at 2017 levels, and a long-term goal of achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century....

It is also strengthening the link between emissions performance and executive renumeration from 2021, and has invested $6m in Carbon Engineering Limited, a Canadian company focused on developing ways to capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Mackenzie said that “like most scientists” he believes that global warming will tend to the upper end of forecasts, while conceding there was a chance it would not. But he said prudent risk management meant BHP was planning to protect against the downside.

Global warming required a “coordinated global response” and no single solution could combat it, Mackenzie said . “While we endorse a carbon price this is not enough in isolation.”

Electric vehicles, renewables, reforestation and replacing single-use plastics all have trade-offs, such as simply moving fossil fuel emissions up the chain if energy production is not also decarbonised.

“An ‘all of the above’ solution barely gets us there,” Mackenzie said. “All emitters, resource companies, customers, consumers must play their part together with governments to meet the climate challenge.”

Ian Murray
29-07-2019, 07:27 PM
The terrible truth of climate change (https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/august/1566136800/jo-lle-gergis/terrible-truth-climate-change)
Joëlle Gergis (https://fennerschool.anu.edu.au/people/academics/dr-joelle-gergis)
The Monthly
August 2019

...One common metric used to investigate the effects of global warming is known as “equilibrium climate sensitivity”, defined as the full amount of global surface warming that will eventually occur in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations compared to pre-industrial times. It’s sometimes referred to as the holy grail of climate science because it helps quantify the specific risks posed to human society as the planet continues to warm.

We know that CO2 concentrations have risen from pre-industrial levels of 280 parts per million (ppm) to approximately 410 ppm today, the highest recorded in at least three million years. Without major mitigation efforts, we are likely to reach 560 ppm by around 2060.

When the IPCC’s fifth assessment report was published in 2013, it estimated that such a doubling of CO2 was likely to produce warming within the range of 1.5 to 4.5°C as the Earth reaches a new equilibrium. However, preliminary estimates calculated from the latest global climate models (being used in the current IPCC assessment, due out in 2021) are far higher than with the previous generation of models. Early reports are predicting that a doubling of CO2 may in fact produce between 2.8 and 5.8°C of warming. Incredibly, at least eight of the latest models produced by leading research centres in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and France are showing climate sensitivity of 5°C or warmer...

Even with the 1°C of warming we’ve already experienced, 50 per cent of the Great Barrier Reef is dead. We are witnessing catastrophic ecosystem collapse of the largest living organism on the planet. As I share this horrifying information with audiences around the country, I often pause to allow people to try and really take that information in....

Although the very foundation of human civilisation is at stake, the world is on track to seriously overshoot our UN targets. Worse still, global carbon emissions are still rising. In response, scientists are prioritising research on how the planet has responded during other warm periods in the Earth’s history.

The most comprehensive summary of conditions experienced during past warm periods in the Earth’s recent history was published in June 2018 in one of our leading journals, Nature Geoscience, by 59 leading experts from 17 countries. The report concluded that warming of between 1.5 and 2°C in the past was enough to see significant shifts in climate zones, and land and aquatic ecosystems “spatially reorganize”.

These changes triggered substantial long-term melting of ice in Greenland and Antarctica, unleashing 6 to 13 metres of global sea-level rise lasting thousands of years.

Examining the Earth’s climatic past tells us that even between 1.5 and 2°C of warming sees the world reconfigure in ways that people don’t yet appreciate. All bets are off between 3 and 4°C, where we are currently headed. Parts of Australia will become uninhabitable, as other areas of our country become increasingly ravaged by extreme weather events....

Without major action, we will see tropical cyclones drifting into areas on the southern edge of current cyclone zones, into places such as south-east Queensland and northern New South Wales, where infrastructure is not ready to cope with cyclonic conditions.

These areas currently house more than 3.6 million people; we simply aren’t prepared for what is upon us.

There is a very rational reason why Australian schoolkids are now taking to the streets – the immensity of what is at stake is truly staggering. Staying silent about this planetary emergency no longer feels like an option for me either. Given how disconnected policy is from scientific reality in this country, an urgent and pragmatic national conversation is now essential. Other-wise, living on a destabilised planet is the terrible truth that we will all face....

We still have time to try and avert the scale of the disaster, but we must respond as we would in an emergency. The question is, can we muster the best of our humanity in time?

Ian Murray
30-07-2019, 06:18 PM
Sailing to America: Teen to bring her climate activism to US (https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/sailing-america-teen-bring-climate-activism-us-64627695?cid=social_fb_abcn)
ABC News, Stockholm
29.7.19

Greta Thunberg, the Swedish teenager whose social media-savvy brand of eco-activism has inspired tens of thousands of students in Europe to skip classes and protest for faster action against climate change, said Monday that she plans to take her message to America the old-fashioned way: by boat.

The 16-year-old tweeted that she'll sail across the Atlantic aboard a high-tech racing yacht, leaving Britain next month to attend U.N. climate summits in New York in September and Santiago, Chile, in December....

Capablanca-Fan
01-08-2019, 12:28 PM
Why UK voted for Brexit, USA voted for Trump, and Australia voted for ScoMo: the people are sick of rich hypocritical elitists who live like kings while wanting to tell the people what to do, restrict their freedoms, and tax us more. Of course they have no intention of making sacrifices themselves, only enforce them on others.

Obama, Katy Perry, Other Celebs Take Jets and Yachts to Sicily for Google Climate Change Summit (https://pjmedia.com/trending/obama-katy-perry-other-celebs-take-jets-and-yachts-to-sicily-for-google-climate-change-summit/)
JIM TREACHER, PJ Media, 31 July 2019

Everybody knows that the world is going to be destroyed by globalchangeclimatewarming, but nobody's doing anything about it. Nobody except Google, that is. This week is the tech giant's "Google Camp," held at the Verdura Resort in Sicily, which brings in celebrities from all over the world to be rich and famous together. Oh, and to solve the problem, of course. That's what they're doing. They're making the world better. Just ask them!

Emily Smith and Ebony Bowden, Page Six (https://pagesix.com/2019/07/30/a-listers-flock-to-google-summit-in-private-jets-mega-yachts-to-talk-climate-change/):


The billionaire creators of Google have invited a who’s who of A-list names— including former President Barack Obama, Prince Harry, Leonardo DiCaprio and Katy Perry — to the Sicilian seaside for a mega-party they’ve dubbed Google Camp...

Many of the guests, including Obama and DiCaprio — who has his own climate change foundation — have described global warming as the biggest threat to future generations.
But according to Italian press reports, the attendees were expected to show up in 114 private jets, and 40 had arrived by Sunday...

Stars there also include Harry Styles, Orlando Bloom, Diane von Furstenberg and Barry Diller, who arrived on their enormous $200 million yacht Eos...

Private jets, luxury yachts... Haven't these people heard of teleconferencing? How much carbon do they need to spew into the atmosphere, just to lecture the rest of us peons about leaving the phone charger plugged in?

They could've taken eco-friendly sailboats, like teen climate-scold Greta Thunberg, but there's no time for that. We've only got 14-18 months left!

As the great Glenn Reynolds says: I'll believe it's a crisis when the people who tell me it's a crisis start acting like it's a crisis. Say what you want about Ed Begley Jr., but as he's powering his TV set with a stationary bike and filtering his own urine to drink, at least he's living according to his stated principles.


Climate activist celebrities arrive at 'Google Camp' by yachts, helicopters, and private jets (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/climate-activist-celebrities-arrive-at-google-camp-by-yachts-helicopters-and-private-jets)
by Ellie Bufkin, Washington Examiner, 31 July 2019

Some estimates suggest that up to 100,000 kilograms of CO₂ could be expelled into the air during the journeys of that many private jets. Mega yachts, like Graeme Hart's $275 million "Ulysses," can use up to 2,000 liters of fuel per hour when in motion.

antichrist
01-08-2019, 02:02 PM
Capa Fan, I am glad that this is exposed. I only realised the other day how many of the jet set have their own jets. I am all for sailing boat travel in which the able bodied passengers also do their bit, with all the hi-tech these days I am sure journeys could be safe and sound. In younger years I had bicycle holidays based around train trips and was excellent. There should be covered bicycle paths between all the cities with stop overs where we could play chess, have a chat and freshen up.

Ian Murray
01-08-2019, 03:45 PM
Private jet ownership is a world apart, with only billionaires (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/even-most-multimillionaires-cant-afford-to-own-a-private-jet-2018-04-03) able to buy, maintain and operate one. Average age is over 60; celebs are a minority.

Fractional ownership is popular, with various options available

antichrist
01-08-2019, 04:00 PM
Private jet ownership is a world apart, with only billionaires (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/even-most-multimillionaires-cant-afford-to-own-a-private-jet-2018-04-03) able to buy, maintain and operate one. Average age is over 60; celebs are a minority.

Fractional ownership is popular, with various options available

One of my "mates" here has one, he is worth about 400M, he takes everyone around the world for free but not me yet.

Capablanca-Fan
02-08-2019, 12:29 AM
Private jet ownership is a world apart, with only billionaires (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/even-most-multimillionaires-cant-afford-to-own-a-private-jet-2018-04-03) able to buy, maintain and operate one. Average age is over 60; celebs are a minority.

Fractional ownership is popular, with various options available

Interesting, but doesn't change the argument. They demand that the masses to cut down on their cars, although the average passenger car generates about 4.6 tonnes of CO₂ per year. This conference probably generated 100 tonnes from the private jets for a short conference. One litre of diesel fuel generates 2.68 kg of CO₂. One of the many huge yachts burns 2,000 L/hr. It goes back to: if you honestly think that climate change is a crisis, then b&^%$y well act like it: lead by example! It's similar to the overpopulation doom-mongerers who never cease despite Paul R. Ehrlich being totally discredited: if you really think so, then eliminate yourself first.

Ian Murray
02-08-2019, 08:29 AM
Interesting, but doesn't change the argument. They demand that the masses to cut down on their cars, although the average passenger car generates about 4.6 tonnes of CO₂ per year. This conference probably generated 100 tonnes from the private jets for a short conference. One litre of diesel fuel generates 2.68 kg of CO₂. One of the many huge yachts burns 2,000 L/hr. It goes back to: if you honestly think that climate change is a crisis, then b&^%$y well act like it: lead by example! It's similar to the overpopulation doom-mongerers who never cease despite Paul R. Ehrlich being totally discredited: if you really think so, then eliminate yourself first.

I agree with you. But I have no influence on celebs, and they have no influence on me. I do listen to scientists, however, and live accordingly. My carbon footprint is negative.

Patrick Byrom
02-08-2019, 09:59 AM
I agree with you. But I have no influence on celebs, and they have no influence on me. I do listen to scientists, however, and live accordingly. My carbon footprint is negative.Exactly. What's the point of attacking celebrities who will never read Chess Chat while ignoring the billions of people (including many who do read Chess Chat) who are concerned about climate change but don't have private jets?

And of course rejectors will attack celebrities for not using private jets as well (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/02/greta-thunberg-hits-back-at-andrew-bolt-for-deeply-disturbing-column): “Thunberg has announced she’s finally going to the United States, the last bastion of the heathen, to preach the global warming faith to the Americans,” Bolt wrote. “Of course, she’s going by racing yacht, because she refuses to fly and heat the planet with an aeroplane’s global warming gasses.”

Desmond
02-08-2019, 10:00 AM
Interesting, but doesn't change the argument. They demand that the masses to cut down on their cars, although the average passenger car generates about 4.6 tonnes of CO₂ per year. This conference probably generated 100 tonnes from the private jets for a short conference. One litre of diesel fuel generates 2.68 kg of CO₂. One of the many huge yachts burns 2,000 L/hr. It goes back to: if you honestly think that climate change is a crisis, then b&^%$y well act like it: lead by example! It's similar to the overpopulation doom-mongerers who never cease despite Paul R. Ehrlich being totally discredited: if you really think so, then eliminate yourself first.
I don't think that logically follows. If you are a believer in overpopulation, then it would be much better to influence others to reduce the population than to just remove yourself. Eg if you could influence just 2 people, it's already more effective.

Same with transportation costs. With the estimate you gave, 100,000 kilograms of CO₂, and I have no idea if that's right or not but let's say it is, if the event can enable those there to directly or indirectly reduce emmissions by more than that then it's a net gain. Arguments such as teleconferencing would be better just fly in the face of reality. Teleconferencing has it's place, but it has not fully replaced face to face meetings.

Blunderbuss
02-08-2019, 01:11 PM
If you think Bolt's article about Greta Thunberg is beyond the pale then you can lodge your complaint here: https://www.presscouncil.org.au/complaints-form/ (https://www.presscouncil.org.au/complaints-form/)

Capablanca-Fan
03-08-2019, 07:51 AM
I don't think that logically follows. If you are a believer in overpopulation, then it would be much better to influence others to reduce the population than to just remove yourself. Eg if you could influence just 2 people, it's already more effective.
But how good is this influence really? How many people respect hypocrites who won't lead by example?


Same with transportation costs. With the estimate you gave, 100,000 kilograms of CO₂, and I have no idea if that's right or not but let's say it is, if the event can enable those there to directly or indirectly reduce emissions by more than that then it's a net gain. Arguments such as teleconferencing would be better just fly in the face of reality. Teleconferencing has it's place, but it has not fully replaced face to face meetings.
Once again, how does it encourage the masses to reduce emissions if they see the self-proclaimed leaders increasing theirs? The impression that hoi polloi receive is rather that the situation can't be that urgent if the leaders are spewing tons of CO₂

Capablanca-Fan
03-08-2019, 07:52 AM
I agree with you. But I have no influence on celebs, and they have no influence on me. I do listen to scientists, however, and live accordingly. My carbon footprint is negative.

That is reasonable. Leading by example deserves respect.

Ian Murray
03-08-2019, 08:18 AM
That is reasonable. Leading by example deserves respect.

I should have said my net carbon footprint. I plant 100 trees each year to offset the emissions I'm not quite prepared to give up

Desmond
03-08-2019, 11:13 AM
But how good is this influence really? How many people respect hypocrites who won't lead by example?Well it would only take 1 to be more effective than your suggestion.



Once again, how does it encourage the masses to reduce emissions if they see the self-proclaimed leaders increasing theirs? The impression that hoi polloi receive is rather that the situation can't be that urgent if the leaders are spewing tons of CO₂Well then, why not look at what they are doing? Such as DiCaprio (https://www.leonardodicaprio.org/programs/climate-change/):


...
LDF [Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation] ACTION HIGHLIGHTS


· RE-volv, with match funding by LDF, launched and completed 5 solar crowdfunding campaigns for non-profits in the US. Together, these installations will prevent over 1 million pounds of CO2 emissions over their lifetime.

· Our Children’s Trust (OCT), the group representing the voice of youth in a ground-breaking climate change lawsuit against the U.S. Federal Government, achieved notable successes, including winning the right to have their case heard by a US District Court in late 2018.

· Interfaith Power & Light (IPL) has received pledges from over 11,250 individuals and congregations across the US to commit to reduce their carbon footprints in their homes or houses of worship.

· CarboTax, an initiative supported by LDF, allowed people to voluntarily report and offset their carbon footprint and raised over $750,000 for innovative ocean and forest conservation projects.
...


So he is not just a do-nothing jetsetter.

Capablanca-Fan
03-08-2019, 03:56 PM
I should have said my net carbon footprint. I plant 100 trees each year to offset the emissions I'm not quite prepared to give up

No worries; don't you have solar PV for all your electricity?

Capablanca-Fan
03-08-2019, 03:58 PM
Well it would only take 1 to be more effective than your suggestion.
But it's just as likely that his leading by example would cause some people to follow this example.

Ian Murray
03-08-2019, 04:13 PM
No worries; don't you have solar PV for all your electricity?

Only a 1.8 kW system, which is not big enough but which was the standard issue back then. Nowadays you get 5.5 - 6 kW for the same $3K, which will run a home with enough surplus to keep a battery charged

Desmond
03-08-2019, 05:47 PM
But it's just as likely that his leading by example would cause some people to follow this example.Yet someone can do both - i.e. not procreate, and convince other people to do likewise. Dead men tell no tales.

Ian Murray
03-08-2019, 05:59 PM
Fridays for Future Is About to Turn One (https://www.spiegel.de/international/growing-pains-fridays-for-future-is-about-to-turn-one-a-1279544.html#ref=nl-international)
Der Spiegel
27.7.19

Just under a year ago, Greta Thunberg launched her campaign to save the climate. The Fridays for Future movement has been growing bigger and bigger and is also experiencing some growing pains -- at least in Germany....

MichaelBaron
06-08-2019, 03:35 PM
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-06/extinction-rebellion-protest-brisbane-cbd/11384442?fbclid=IwAR3dfpRaRXdcagDpT8uYQAI9G7S7nMqm 07-S64Xagy3N_7oNeXPY-FhHu9A

Glad to see them charged!

Ian Murray
06-08-2019, 04:11 PM
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-06/extinction-rebellion-protest-brisbane-cbd/11384442?fbclid=IwAR3dfpRaRXdcagDpT8uYQAI9G7S7nMqm 07-S64Xagy3N_7oNeXPY-FhHu9A

Glad to see them charged!

Small fines for a peaceful protest. Just extra publicity for the cause.

Patrick Byrom
06-08-2019, 06:20 PM
Small fines for a peaceful protest. Just extra publicity for the cause.I was actually in the CBD during the protest, and it was more of a nuisance than anything else. There wasn't even much traffic disruption.

MichaelBaron
06-08-2019, 10:36 PM
I was actually in the CBD during the protest, and it was more of a nuisance than anything else. There wasn't even much traffic disruption.

So they should have waited for the nuisance to get bigger and disruptions to start rather than dismantle it? :)

MichaelBaron
06-08-2019, 10:36 PM
Small fines for a peaceful protest. Just extra publicity for the cause.

I wonder if it is possible to protest without disrupting others.

antichrist
07-08-2019, 06:55 AM
I wonder if it is possible to protest without disrupting others.
But if you are in a car when being disrupted then maybe the protest is aimed at you but you are a bit too thick to realise

Patrick Byrom
07-08-2019, 09:44 AM
So they should have waited for the nuisance to get bigger and disruptions to start rather than dismantle it? :)The police arguably caused most of the traffic disruption.

MichaelBaron
07-08-2019, 11:21 AM
But if you are in a car when being disrupted then maybe the protest is aimed at you but you are a bit too thick to realise

It dies not mean they have a right to disrupt.

antichrist
07-08-2019, 02:09 PM
It dies not mean they have a right to disrupt.

A person in a car could be considered to be trampling the rights of climate change protestors who can rightfully claim the right to clean air for themselves as well as their descendants. They have just as much right to disrupt your "criminal" action as you have to create pollution.

ER
07-08-2019, 06:10 PM
divine intervention to teach them a lesson! :D :P

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/cold-and-severe-weather-forecast-to-hit-new-south-wales-victoria-and-south-australia/ar-AAFsexb?ocid=spartandhp

MichaelBaron
07-08-2019, 06:16 PM
divine intervention to teach them a lesson! :D :P

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/cold-and-severe-weather-forecast-to-hit-new-south-wales-victoria-and-south-australia/ar-AAFsexb?ocid=spartandhp

You'll be amazed..
Global Warming advocates will tell you...this also an indicator of Global Warming :).
In Data science what they are doing...well we call it: ''Torturing Data''

ER
07-08-2019, 06:25 PM
A person in a car could be considered to be trampling the rights of climate change protestors who can rightfully claim the right to clean air for themselves as well as their descendants. Tbhey have just as much right to disrupt your "criminal" action as you have to create pollution.
Fair go cobba, Michael is a conscientious commuter and you 'd extremely rarely see him using an automobile for his moving around his business. How many of the usual climate warming knuckleheads like those pictured in the article, or those who burn their environmental bras here on this forum can claim the same?

ER
07-08-2019, 06:29 PM
You'll be amazed..
Global Warming advocates will tell you...this also an indicator of Global Warming :).
In Data science what they are doing...well we call it: ''Torturing Data''

lol correct term!

Patrick Byrom
07-08-2019, 06:59 PM
Fair go cobba, Michael is a conscientious commuter and you 'd extremely rarely see him using an automobile for his moving around his business. How many of the usual climate warming knuckleheads like those pictured in the article, or those who burn their environmental bras here on this forum can claim the same?I don't use a car at all, so I'm well ahead of him on that basis.

Patrick Byrom
07-08-2019, 07:04 PM
You'll be amazed.. Global Warming advocates will tell you...this also an indicator of Global Warming :). In Data science what they are doing...well we call it: ''Torturing Data''Which 'advocates' claim that a cold snap in the middle of winter is evidence of global warming?

MichaelBaron
07-08-2019, 07:04 PM
lol correct term!

This is a standard term to use in Data Science.
Data Science books also refer to weather and climate as examples of ''The Really Big Data'' This is why I find this ''Lets stop the Global warming Dance'' rather amazing.
Even more curiously as they had to update the IT management textbook to mention the Global Warming (you know why) we have explanation why Weather/Climate Data is The Really Big Data in one chapter...but sustainability chapter mentions that companies need to be aware of global warming and a page of bla bla what to do about it follows :).

MichaelBaron
07-08-2019, 07:07 PM
Fair go cobba, Michael is a conscientious commuter and you 'd extremely rarely see him using an automobile for his moving around his business. How many of the usual climate warming knuckleheads like those pictured in the article, or those who burn their environmental bras here on this forum can claim the same?

Actually, I do not drive other than very occasionally to supermarket. The last car that I've ever purchased - was for my mum to drive so ...yes..helping the environment.
However, my reason for not driving has little to do with environment and more to do with the fact that I do not like driving and do not really have to drive around places on regular basis. I am fine with public transport and drive just occasionally.

Patrick Byrom
07-08-2019, 07:08 PM
This is a standard term to use in Data Science.
Data Science books also refer to weather and climate as examples of ''The Really Big Data'' This is why I find this ''Lets stop the Global warming Dance'' rather amazing.
Even more curiously as they had to update the IT management textbook to mention the Global Warming (you know why) we have explanation why Weather/Climate Data is The Really Big Data in one chapter...but sustainability chapter mentions that companies need to be aware of global warming and a page of bla bla what to do about it follows :).You do realise that there is a huge difference between global weather (which is 'big data') and global temperature (which isn't)?

ER
07-08-2019, 07:11 PM
I don't use a car at all, so I'm well ahead of him on that basis.

last time I saw Michael in a car was about 10 years ago when his dad gave him a lift to the Melbourne Chess Club. I have seen him at least twice using public transport of walking around the city! You can't really claim a victory over that. Haven't you ever been given a lift to your arbiter duties incl. transferring equipment to the venues?

Patrick Byrom
07-08-2019, 07:50 PM
last time I saw Michael in a car was about 10 years ago when his dad gave him a lift to the Melbourne Chess Club. I have seen him at least twice using public transport of walking around the city! You can't really claim a victory over that. Haven't you ever been given a lift to your arbiter duties incl. transferring equipment to the venues?Michael said that he uses his car for shopping - I don't. So that means he uses a car to transport himself a lot more than I do. Getting a lift with someone who is going to the same place doesn't add to the level of carbon dioxide.

I think it's safe to say that Ian and myself (at least) cannot be accused of hypocrisy in this area.

Ian Murray
07-08-2019, 07:54 PM
I don't use a car at all, so I'm well ahead of him on that basis.

I've disposed of mine

Ian Murray
07-08-2019, 07:58 PM
Which 'advocates' claim that a cold snap in the middle of winter is evidence of global warming?

He's making stuff up again. It goes without saying that such advocates don't exist outside Michael's febrile imagination

MichaelBaron
07-08-2019, 08:41 PM
You do realise that there is a huge difference between global weather (which is 'big data') and global temperature (which isn't)?

The Big Data is often not a problem for Data Analysts because after all...if data comes in a range of formats, it can (sometimes) be brought to a common format. However, The Really Big Data is another story. For instance comparing conditions today with conditions 500 years ago...How to analyze accurately? :)
How to make sure that the assessment is evidence-based rather than assumptions-based?

antichrist
07-08-2019, 08:58 PM
Fair go cobba, Michael is a conscientious commuter and you 'd extremely rarely see him using an automobile for his moving around his business. How many of the usual climate warming knuckleheads like those pictured in the article, or those who burn their environmental bras here on this forum can claim the same?

On the Byron Nude Bicycle Ride for the environment not one Male or female wore a bra to burn - come and join me when we claim the streets for the bicycle. Let your hair down.
.

Ian Murray
07-08-2019, 09:06 PM
The Big Data is often not a problem for Data Analysts because after all...if data comes in a range of formats, it can (sometimes) be brought to a common format. However, The Really Big Data is another story. For instance comparing conditions today with conditions 500 years ago...How to analyze accurately? :)
How to make sure that the assessment is evidence-based rather than assumptions-based?

There are multiple empirical sources from the last 500 years, or 5000, or 50,000, or 500,000. Beyond 800,000 it gets difficult.

antichrist
07-08-2019, 09:24 PM
You'll be amazed..
Global Warming advocates will tell you...this also an indicator of Global Warming :).
In Data science what they are doing...well we call it: ''Torturing Data''

At a guess it could be assisted by climate change as glaciers melt and the cold water circulates in the major oceans causing colder conditions. I think this may have occurred in Northern Hemisphere winter Jan 2019 or 2018 when America and parts of tropical Asia froze.

MichaelBaron
07-08-2019, 09:50 PM
At a guess it could be assisted by climate change as glaciers melt and the cold water circulates in the major oceans causing colder conditions. I think this may have occurred in Northern Hemisphere winter Jan 2019 or 2018 when America and parts of tropical Asia froze.

I am not discussing what happened/happening. I am discussing the Data Analysis principles!

MichaelBaron
07-08-2019, 09:52 PM
There are multiple empirical sources from the last 500 years, or 5000, or 50,000, or 500,000. Beyond 800,000 it gets difficult.

Sorry but with the Empirical sources...data validity is always questionable, particularly when we are considering global temperatures/climate worldwide.

Ian Murray
07-08-2019, 09:56 PM
At a guess it could be assisted by climate change as glaciers melt and the cold water circulates in the major oceans causing colder conditions. I think this may have occurred in Northern Hemisphere winter Jan 2019 or 2018 when America and parts of tropical Asia froze.
i
No; glacier melt is caused by warmer temperatures. Ice sheets melting are much more significant by causing rising sea levels (Greenland lost 10 billion tonnes (https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2019/0806/1067217-greenland-ice-melt/) of ice in one day last week)..

The cold snap in the southern states is just a severe low pressure system moving eastward. Weather, not climate.

The extreme heat waves and freezes in the northern hemisphere are due to the erratic behaviour of the polar vortex as polar sea ice melts. That's climate change at work.

Ian Murray
07-08-2019, 09:57 PM
Sorry but with the Empirical sources...data validity is always questionable, particularly when we are considering global temperatures/climate worldwide.

When they all give the same results, the data is confirmed.

MichaelBaron
07-08-2019, 10:19 PM
When they all give the same results, the data is confirmed.

Let me ask you a simple Question: There are widespread claims That the TEMPERATURE (putting the word in capital so I do not get a reply about climate) has risen by over 2 degrees since pre-industrial times?
In your view: Is it Possible to establish this without knowing temperature at the times these claims are referring to by the means of relying exclusively on empirical evidence?

If Yes, Question number 2. In order to assume that these accurately established changes to the global TEMPERATURE (if happening) is a result of Human Activity ...Do when need to consider a similar time period (e.g. 300 years before the industrialisation) to ensure that this is not something that has been happening all along?

and a bonus question: How often does empirical evidence gets ''corrected/refuted'' in longitudinal studies? :)

Patrick Byrom
07-08-2019, 11:00 PM
Let me ask you a simple Question: There are widespread claims That the TEMPERATURE (putting the word in capital so I do not get a reply about climate) has risen by over 2 degrees since pre-industrial times? In your view: Is it Possible to establish this without knowing temperature at the times these claims are referring to by the means of relying exclusively on empirical evidence?We do know the temperature from 200 years ago - reliable thermometers date back hundreds of years.


If Yes, Question number 2. In order to assume that these accurately established changes to the global TEMPERATURE (if happening) is a result of Human Activity ...Do when need to consider a similar time period (e.g. 300 years before the industrialisation) to ensure that this is not something that has been happening all along?As I've explained to you before, scientists are not deriving conclusions from temperature data, they are using this data to confirm established theories. We know that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, and we know that the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing as the result of human activity. The temperature record confirms this.


and a bonus question: How often does empirical evidence gets ''corrected/refuted'' in longitudinal studies? :)What longitudinal studies?

Blunderbuss
07-08-2019, 11:40 PM
Michael I find your denial of climate change oddly fascinating. :wall:

You claim to know a thing or two about ‘big data sets, but there are at least five major global climate databases all of which agree that in the last 100 years the earth has warmed by 1 degree.

3861
Temperature data for the five major global climate databases

Do you think they are all wrong? Would you like to examine the data yourself? -
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/ (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/)
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/indicators/11keyindicators.html (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/indicators/11keyindicators.html)

As for the distant past there has been a lot of work on that as well: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jul/24/scientific-consensus-on-humans-causing-global-warming-passes-99 (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jul/24/scientific-consensus-on-humans-causing-global-warming-passes-99)


Three studies published in Nature and Nature Geoscience use extensive historical data to show there has never been a period in the last 2,000 years when temperature changes have been as fast and extensive as in recent decades.

And finally, how is this for some data - humans by burning fossil fuels and deforestation have increased the CO2 in the atmosphere by 35 ppm in just the last 17 years. The last time the CO2 levels went up by this amount the earth was emerging from the last ice age and the same rise occurred over 1000 years. So, by continuing to dig up and burn coal we are not only heading for disaster, but we are doing so at an incredible fast pace.

Personally, if it means some traffic disruption in our capital cities to point these facts out then I think that’s a price worth paying.

MichaelBaron
08-08-2019, 12:40 AM
Michael I find your denial of climate change oddly fascinating. :wall:

You claim to know a thing or two about ‘big data sets, but there are at least five major global climate databases all of which agree that in the last 100 years the earth has warmed by 1 degree.

3861
Temperature data for the five major global climate databases

Do you think they are all wrong? Would you like to examine the data yourself? -
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/ (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/)
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/indicators/11keyindicators.html (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/indicators/11keyindicators.html)

As for the distant past there has been a lot of work on that as well: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jul/24/scientific-consensus-on-humans-causing-global-warming-passes-99 (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jul/24/scientific-consensus-on-humans-causing-global-warming-passes-99)


Three studies published in Nature and Nature Geoscience use extensive historical data to show there has never been a period in the last 2,000 years when temperature changes have been as fast and extensive as in recent decades.

And finally, how is this for some data - humans by burning fossil fuels and deforestation have increased the CO2 in the atmosphere by 35 ppm in just the last 17 years. The last time the CO2 levels went up by this amount the earth was emerging from the last ice age and the same rise occurred over 1000 years. So, by continuing to dig up and burn coal we are not only heading for disaster, but we are doing so at an incredible fast pace.

Personally, if it means some traffic disruption in our capital cities to point these facts out then I think that’s a price worth paying.

How accurate is this data set? that is the question?

MichaelBaron
08-08-2019, 12:42 AM
We do know the temperature from 200 years ago - reliable thermometers date back hundreds of years.

As I've explained to you before, scientists are not deriving conclusions from temperature data, they are using this data to confirm established theories. We know that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, and we know that the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing as the result of human activity. The temperature record confirms this.

What longitudinal studies?

200 years ago? worldwide on regular basis :) would love to know who was doing it in Australia for instance :) and if we want to be sure it did not happen just over 200 years...shall we look into previous 200 years ...what if it was happening before?
even before industrial revolution?

MichaelBaron
08-08-2019, 12:43 AM
How accurate is this data set? that is the question?

1850 weather data ..worldwide was accurate?

antichrist
08-08-2019, 06:41 AM
200 years ago? worldwide on regular basis :) would love to know who was doing it in Australia for instance :) and if we want to be sure it did not happen just over 200 years...shall we look into previous 200 years ...what if it was happening before?
even before industrial revolution?
You can query what took place before, one method of attack is by working backwards. As I have stated here earlier that my Hungarian brother in law has kept records of Sydney weather since a 16 year old
That would be for 60 years. A science fanatic this guy. His records will tell you that Sydney has gone from 6 days a year of reaching 100 degrees F to 30 days a year. That's if I am remembering correctly. But whatever it is it's a monstrous jump. Now if this same trend had been since Jesus played full back for Jerusalem than maybe 365 days a year would be 100 degrees F.

antichrist
08-08-2019, 06:47 AM
You can query what took place before, one method of attack is by working backwards. As I have stated here earlier that my Hungarian brother in law has kept records of Sydney weather since a 16 year old
That would be for 60 years. A science fanatic this guy. His records will tell you that Sydney has gone from 6 days a year of reaching 100 degrees F to 30 days a year. That's if I am remembering correctly. But whatever it is it's a monstrous jump. Now if this same trend had been since Jesus played full back for Jerusalem than maybe 365 days a year would be 100 degrees F.
I would like to point out that this brother in law mentioned above is my only non Lebanese brother in law. The Lebs are out doing more important things like buying houses.

Desmond
08-08-2019, 09:06 AM
This is a standard term to use in Data Science.
Data Science books also refer to weather and climate as examples of ''The Really Big Data'' This is why I find this ''Lets stop the Global warming Dance'' rather amazing.
Even more curiously as they had to update the IT management textbook to mention the Global Warming (you know why) we have explanation why Weather/Climate Data is The Really Big Data in one chapter...but sustainability chapter mentions that companies need to be aware of global warming and a page of bla bla what to do about it follows :).

Sounds like you need to keep reading. :lol:

Ian Murray
08-08-2019, 09:39 AM
How accurate is this data set? that is the question?

Are surface temperature records reliable? (https://skepticalscience.com/surface-temperature-measurements-advanced.htm)

...
Conclusions

The well-known and widely-cited reconstructions of global temperature, produced by NASA GISS, UEA CRU, and NOAA NCDC, are replicable.

Independent studies using different software, different methods, and different data sets yield very similar results.

The increase in temperatures since 1975 is a consistent feature of all reconstructions, and is also a feature found in reconstructions from natural temperature proxy measurements. This increase cannot be explained as an artifact of the adjustment process, the decrease in station numbers, or other non-climatological factors.

Patrick Byrom
08-08-2019, 10:29 AM
200 years ago? worldwide on regular basis :) would love to know who was doing it in Australia for instance :) and if we want to be sure it did not happen just over 200 years...shall we look into previous 200 years ...what if it was happening before?
even before industrial revolution?The theory of man-made global warming is based on atmospheric physics, not derived from temperature records. So whether they were reliable 200 years ago is irrelevant.

Ian Murray
08-08-2019, 11:02 AM
Let me ask you a simple Question: There are widespread claims That the TEMPERATURE (putting the word in capital so I do not get a reply about climate) has risen by over 2 degrees since pre-industrial times?

Average global surface temperatures have risen by 2°F since 1880 (https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4626), but only the US still uses the Fahrenheit scale so let's stick to Celsius - 1.1°C. The period 1951-1980 is now used as the baseline, as data since then is highly reliable. The temperature anomaly since then is +0.83°

Bear in mind that raising the temperature by an average 1° of the surface of the earth's geosphere and hydrosphere requires a massive amount of heat.


In your view: Is it Possible to establish this without knowing temperature at the times these claims are referring to by the means of relying exclusively on empirical evidence?

You don't seem to understand what empirical evidence is. It is evidence based on observation and/or experimentation, which of course includes thermometer readings. Presumably you are thinking of proxy evidence, which is also empirical. The answer to your question then is yes.


If Yes, Question number 2. In order to assume that these accurately established changes to the global TEMPERATURE (if happening) is a result of Human Activity ...Do when need to consider a similar time period (e.g. 300 years before the industrialisation) to ensure that this is not something that has been happening all along?

It's been done over and over again, e.g. A 1500-year reconstruction of annual mean temperature for temperate North America on decadal-to-multidecadal time scales (https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024008). The methodology is detailed - feel free to try to refute it. There's a primer on palaeoclimatology here (https://serc.carleton.edu/microbelife/topics/proxies/paleoclimate.html).


and a bonus question: How often does empirical evidence gets ''corrected/refuted'' in longitudinal studies? :)

I don't know what longitudinal studies you have in mind, if any. Some historical data (https://theconversation.com/factcheck-was-the-1896-heatwave-wiped-from-the-record-33742) has been discounted as unreliable, e.g. the reports of 50°+ Australian temperatures in the 19th century (before the introduction of Stevenson Screens (https://serc.carleton.edu/microbelife/topics/proxies/paleoclimate.html) for uniform recordings).

MichaelBaron
08-08-2019, 11:26 AM
Average global surface temperatures have risen by 2°F since 1880 (https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4626), but only the US still uses the Fahrenheit scale so let's stick to Celsius - 1.1°C. The period 1951-1980 is now used as the baseline, as data since then is highly reliable. The temperature anomaly since then is +0.83°

Bear in mind that raising the temperature by an average 1° of the surface of the earth's geosphere and hydrosphere requires a massive amount of heat.



You don't seem to understand what empirical evidence is. It is evidence based on observation and/or experimentation, which of course includes thermometer readings. Presumably you are thinking of proxy evidence, which is also empirical. The answer to your question then is yes.



It's been done over and over again, e.g. A 1500-year reconstruction of annual mean temperature for temperate North America on decadal-to-multidecadal time scales (https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024008). The methodology is detailed - feel free to try to refute it. There's a primer on palaeoclimatology here (https://serc.carleton.edu/microbelife/topics/proxies/paleoclimate.html).



I don't know what longitudinal studies you have in mind, if any. Some historical data (https://theconversation.com/factcheck-was-the-1896-heatwave-wiped-from-the-record-33742) has been discounted as unreliable, e.g. the reports of 50°+ Australian temperatures in the 19th century (before the introduction of Stevenson Screens (https://serc.carleton.edu/microbelife/topics/proxies/paleoclimate.html) for uniform recordings).

When working with data sets there is only one way to ensure absolute validity when format of the data sets matches.
Re experimentation and reconstruction - this is nowhere as reliable as comparing single-formatted data sets. I can ''reconstruct'' what the weather/living conditions were 300 years ago...but this by no means confirms that this is how things were. and to measure the trend 300 years ago I need 3 data sets (at least!!!): 1) current 2) - 300 years 3) -600 years.

Re Australian temperatures for instance...today we can measure temperature thought the country at the same point in time in the entire country. Could it be done/was done in the 1880 or it was done in some parts, some times of the day/night/consistently for several days? I doubt it.

Ian Murray
08-08-2019, 11:41 AM
When working with data sets there is only one way to ensure absolute validity when format of the data sets matches.
Re experimentation and reconstruction - this is nowhere as reliable as comparing single-formatted data sets. I can ''reconstruct'' what the weather/living conditions were 300 years ago...but this by no means confirms that this is how things were. and to measure the trend 300 years ago I need 3 data sets (at least!!!): 1) current 2) - 300 years 3) -600 years.

Re Australian temperatures for instance...today we can measure temperature thought the country at the same point in time in the entire country. Could it be done/was done in the 1880 or it was done in some parts, some times of the day/night/consistently for several days? I doubt it.

As I said, 1951-1980 is used as the baseline, not 1880

3862

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/intro.html

MichaelBaron
08-08-2019, 05:00 PM
As I said, 1951-1980 is used as the baseline, not 1880

3862

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/intro.html

so 1951 used as as baseline Shall we assume its accurate data from 1885?

Ian Murray
08-08-2019, 06:57 PM
so 1951 used as as baseline

Not 1951, the 30-year 1951-1980 average


Shall we assume its accurate data from 1885?

No need to assume. The data is derived from global temperature recordings, albeit not as extensive as modern-day satellite measurements.

Ian Murray
16-08-2019, 10:46 AM
July was Earth’s hottest month since records began, with the globe missing 1 million square miles of sea ice (https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/08/15/independent-data-confirms-july-was-earths-hottest-month-since-records-began/?wpisrc=nl_green&wpmm=1)
Washington Post
15.8.19

Data from thousands of surface monitoring stations worldwide, including ocean buoys in the Pacific and land-based thermometers dotting the continents, show that July 2019 was the warmest month on Earth since at least 1850....

Desmond
16-08-2019, 10:51 AM
July was Earth’s hottest month since records began, with the globe missing 1 million square miles of sea ice (https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/08/15/independent-data-confirms-july-was-earths-hottest-month-since-records-began/?wpisrc=nl_green&wpmm=1)
Washington Post
15.8.19

Data from thousands of surface monitoring stations worldwide, including ocean buoys in the Pacific and land-based thermometers dotting the continents, show that July 2019 was the warmest month on Earth since at least 1850....

The effect of positive feedback. It's going to get worse.

antichrist
16-08-2019, 11:54 AM
The effect of positive feedback. It's going to get worse.

If I was an ignorant denier I would dispute that there ever was more a quarter of a million square miles of sea ice.

Ian Murray
16-08-2019, 12:52 PM
If I was an ignorant denier I would dispute that there ever was more a quarter of a million square miles of sea ice.

3863

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2016/02/january-hits-new-record-low-in-the-arctic/

Capablanca-Fan
24-08-2019, 04:31 AM
Average global surface temperatures have risen by 2°F since 1880 (https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4626), but only the US still uses the Fahrenheit scale so let's stick to Celsius - 1.1°C.
We agree on this, i.e. sticking to Celsius!

antichrist
24-08-2019, 07:05 AM
We agree on this, i.e. sticking to Celsius!

It is the oldie barbarians in the English-speaking USA and Oz whom deny. Like myself they are more conversant with the "F" word so to save the earth the "F" word it is.

idledim
06-09-2019, 04:51 PM
So Vasta has been stood down. And JCU will appeal his decision. Although Ridd will not be reinstated (https://www.afr.com/news/policy/health/judge-vasta-to-proceed-with-existing-cases-20190722-p529ik):


On Monday The Australian Financial Review revealed Judge Vasta had been stood down from administrative roles by the Chief Judge of the Federal Circuit Court, Will Alstergren, and was "receiving mentoring" to assist him to "fulfil his duties". Under Federal Court process, judges continue working on existing cases even when relieved of other duties or being counselled. That followed a recent appeal against a conviction in another case in which the Full Federal Court of the Family Court called Judge Vasta's conduct of the case "an affront to justice". ...

On Friday the university announced it would appeal any orders to be made by Judge Vasta in August. Dr Ridd told supporters on a crowd-funding website he was no longer seeking reinstatement because the actions of the university indicated "if I went back, I would have a very troubled existence that would also threaten all my colleagues in the Physics Department".

james-cook-university-ordered-to-pay-peter-ridd-1.2m-for-unlawful-dismissal (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/james-cook-university-ordered-to-pay-peter-ridd-12m-for-unlawful-dismissal/news-story/a9a00f937b78d90520df00bccf78f94d)

MichaelBaron
06-09-2019, 10:37 PM
james-cook-university-ordered-to-pay-peter-ridd-1.2m-for-unlawful-dismissal (https://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/james-cook-university-ordered-to-pay-peter-ridd-12m-for-unlawful-dismissal/news-story/a9a00f937b78d90520df00bccf78f94d)

I was about to share this link...then saw it has been shared already. All I can say is that it is good that at least sometimes - common sense prevails!

Patrick Byrom
09-09-2019, 06:43 PM
This is the disturbing result of science denial (https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/09/noaa-staff-warned-contradict-trump-dorian-alabama.html) (by people such as Ridd) - Trump thinks that he can invent his own science and force everyone else to accept it:

It seems the staffers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration spent much of last week under a virtual gag order. A top NOAA official warned staffers against contradicting the president, reports the Washington Post. Without actually naming Trump, a nationwide directive was sent to NOAA personnel on Sept. 1 ordering that everyone “only stick with official National Hurricane Center forecasts if questions arise from some national level social media posts which hit the news this afternoon.” The directive came mere hours after Trump claimed that Alabama was among the states that “would most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated,” so there was little doubt internally that it was referring to the president.

MichaelBaron
10-09-2019, 04:34 PM
Climate Warriors never seem to run out of ideas. This time it is...eating human flash!

https://bigthink.com/surprising-science/swedish-scientist-eating-humans-climate-change

Patrick Byrom
10-09-2019, 06:12 PM
Who cares what the science says - not Littleproud (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/10/david-littleproud-australian-minister-disaster-climate-change-man-made): "Asked by Guardian Australia why he had avoided taking a position on the effect of manmade climate change, Littleproud replied: “I don’t know if climate change is manmade."

Ian Murray
10-09-2019, 08:44 PM
Climate of the Nation 2019 (https://nb.tai.org.au/climateofnation_2019?utm_campaign=climate_of_the_n ation_2019&utm_medium=email&utm_source=theausinstitute)

The annual Climate of the Nation report has tracked Australian attitudes on climate change for more than a decade.

This is the second Climate of the Nation report produced by The Australia Institute, continuing the work of the Climate Institute (2007-2017).

Key findings include:

81% of Australians are concerned that climate change will result in more droughts and flooding (up from 78% in 2018)

78% of Australians are concerned climate change will lead to water shortages in our cities, an eleven percentage point increase in the past two years (67% in 2017; 72% in 2018).

54% of Australians reject the idea that Australia should not act on climate change until other major emitters like the US and China do (25% agree we should not act, 21% neutral/don't know)

62% of Australians supports a levy on fossil fuel exports to help fund local adaptation to climate change.

64% of Australians think Australia should have a national target for net zero emissions by 2050 (15% think it shouldn’t)....

Patrick Byrom
14-09-2019, 02:54 PM
This is why it matters whether global heating is manmade. If it's a natural phenomenon, then there's nothing we can do about it (probably), and it may very well be cyclic. If it's manmade, on the other hand, then as we increase carbon dioxide levels, these problems will get steadily worse (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/14/temperatures-10-degrees-above-average-forecast-as-130-bushfires-continue-to-burn):

With NSW bushfires making an early mark in 2019 – including the destruction of nine homes over the past week in the state’s north – Mullins says authorities should prepare for more of the same in coming years. He says the entire Australian strategy of tackling bushfires – sharing firefighting resources between states as the risk moves from northern states in spring to southern states in summer – is under threat. Climate change has made nights and winters warmer, increasing the possibility extreme bushfires would burn in different states simultaneously. “What’s becoming difficult is the whole paradigm of strategic firefighting in Australia – it was predicated on progressive fire seasons,” he says. “As we saw last year and now, we’re getting simultaneous fire seasons.

MichaelBaron
14-09-2019, 09:41 PM
https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/news/hundreds-of-climate-change-protesters-shut-down-melbourne-bridge/news-story/2c683178b12ce50ce78b4be138a7dc40?fbclid=IwAR1vXCw-CE5bQJIhpwIDKY9u8sirDLJL-p5aQeSs_U4j3UfD4Bscd0DSgpQ

Police had to carry them out...what sort of uncivilised behaviour is that? Police is asking them to stop and leave they do not...Welcome to the world of the professional climate change protesters...

Ian Murray
15-09-2019, 10:07 AM
https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/news/hundreds-of-climate-change-protesters-shut-down-melbourne-bridge/news-story/2c683178b12ce50ce78b4be138a7dc40?fbclid=IwAR1vXCw-CE5bQJIhpwIDKY9u8sirDLJL-p5aQeSs_U4j3UfD4Bscd0DSgpQ

Police had to carry them out...what sort of uncivilised behaviour is that? Police is asking them to stop and leave they do not...Welcome to the world of the professional climate change protesters...

Their stated aim is to draw attention to the climate crisis. Obviously it's working in your case.

Ian Murray
15-09-2019, 10:32 AM
This is why it matters whether global heating is manmade. If it's a natural phenomenon, then there's nothing we can do about it (probably), and it may very well be cyclic. If it's manmade, on the other hand, then as we increase carbon dioxide levels, these problems will get steadily worse (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/14/temperatures-10-degrees-above-average-forecast-as-130-bushfires-continue-to-burn):

With NSW bushfires making an early mark in 2019 – including the destruction of nine homes over the past week in the state’s north – Mullins says authorities should prepare for more of the same in coming years. He says the entire Australian strategy of tackling bushfires – sharing firefighting resources between states as the risk moves from northern states in spring to southern states in summer – is under threat. Climate change has made nights and winters warmer, increasing the possibility extreme bushfires would burn in different states simultaneously. “What’s becoming difficult is the whole paradigm of strategic firefighting in Australia – it was predicated on progressive fire seasons,” he says. “As we saw last year and now, we’re getting simultaneous fire seasons.

Don't politicise the bushfires? The alternative is to sit back while more severe events happen (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/15/dont-politicise-the-bushfires-the-alternative-is-to-sit-back-while-more-severe-events-happen)

...This week the fires burning in southern Queensland, though started by a vandal, thrived in conditions brought about from climate change. The summer ahead looks to be a horror one for bushfires, with the latest Bureau of Meteorology outlook (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/median/weekly/0) suggesting most of the continent has a less than 30% chance of exceeding its average rainfall for October to December.

But were the bushfires this week caused by climate change? No – at least not definitively so.

It is quite difficult to attribute any individual bushfire or cyclone or drought to climate change, because what climate change affects is long-term trends – trends that will see more droughts and less rainfall in certain areas, as well as conditions more conducive to longer bushfire seasons. (https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-bringing-a-new-world-of-bushfires-123261)

It is much the same as with gun laws in the US. The lack of gun laws does not cause every single gun fatality to occur, but they cause a situation that makes gun fatalities much more likely to occur.

While with melanoma we grasp the long-term and act and adapt accordingly – actions that help reduce the likelihood of melanoma through “slip-slop-slap”, and adaptation required in lieu of being unable to reverse the past (ie checking moles for changes).

But on climate change we are like some old bloke who has spent his life in the sun saying sunburn never killed him, all the while ignoring the mole on his back growing larger and more discoloured every month.

Most of our politicians – and certainly our government – are not even at the stage of adaptation, let alone ready to take actions that might prevent further damage.

antichrist
15-09-2019, 10:37 AM
https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/news/hundreds-of-climate-change-protesters-shut-down-melbourne-bridge/news-story/2c683178b12ce50ce78b4be138a7dc40?fbclid=IwAR1vXCw-CE5bQJIhpwIDKY9u8sirDLJL-p5aQeSs_U4j3UfD4Bscd0DSgpQ

Police had to carry them out...what sort of uncivilised behaviour is that? Police is asking them to stop and leave they do not...Welcome to the world of the professional climate change protesters...

Where along your life did you lose a moral compass or how come you never acquired one? As often stated my fanatical right wing Hungarian fanatical scientific bro-in-law is completely alarmed by climate change - this was a guy who used to throw rotten tomatoes and eggs at anti-Vietnam war protestors 50 years ago. Why denigrate people who care about our planet?

Patrick Byrom
15-09-2019, 02:20 PM
Their stated aim is to draw attention to the climate crisis. Obviously it's working in your case.Michael doesn't seem to realise that he is the beneficiary of many previous protests about other issues, which were also condemned at the time. And that, especially in Australia, we have far far more to worry about from global heating than from a small group of peaceful protesters.

MichaelBaron
15-09-2019, 05:57 PM
Where along your life did you lose a moral compass or how come you never acquired one? As often stated my fanatical right wing Hungarian fanatical scientific bro-in-law is completely alarmed by climate change - this was a guy who used to throw rotten tomatoes and eggs at anti-Vietnam war protestors 50 years ago. Why denigrate people who care about our planet?

There are surely more civilised ways to care/express ones views.

MichaelBaron
15-09-2019, 05:58 PM
Michael doesn't seem to realise that he is the beneficiary of many previous protests about other issues, which were also condemned at the time. And that, especially in Australia, we have far far more to worry about from global heating than from a small group of peaceful protesters.

I do not see how i benefit from people making disruptions to city's daily activities and making so much noise. Not to mention refusing to leave when asked by authorities to do so.

antichrist
15-09-2019, 07:12 PM
I do not see how i benefit from people making disruptions to city's daily activities and making so much noise. Not to mention refusing to leave when asked by authorities to do so.

Michael, I assure you we were a lot more disruptive in protesting against conscription and our involvement in the Vietnam civil war - our Premier infamously stated: run over the bastards. Born too late you escaped conscription to a war that you may not have believed in - to kill or be killed in. If you were not a believer you would have been cheering the protestors on.

Patrick Byrom
15-09-2019, 07:33 PM
Michael, I assure you we were a lot more disruptive in protesting against conscription and our involvement in the Vietnam civil war - our Premier infamously stated: run over the bastards. Born too late you escaped conscription to a war that you may not have believed in - to kill or be killed in. If you were not a believer you would have been cheering the protestors on.An excellent example. I was also thinking of Yeltsin's popular protests against the coup in Russia, which Michael was obviously too young to remember, but without which he might still be in Russia.

Ian Murray
15-09-2019, 08:54 PM
I do not see how i benefit from people making disruptions to city's daily activities and making so much noise. Not to mention refusing to leave when asked by authorities to do so.

If the public groundswell leads to more timely global climate action then you will benefit, along with the rest of life on the planet.

MichaelBaron
16-09-2019, 02:41 AM
An excellent example. I was also thinking of Yeltsin's popular protests against the coup in Russia, which Michael was obviously too young to remember, but without which he might still be in Russia.

LOL a reminder that it is Yeltsin that brought Putin to Power.
and before his actions (under Gorbachev) my family could already travel out of Russia freely.

MichaelBaron
16-09-2019, 03:26 AM
https://www.facebook.com/AYCCOFFICIAL/photos/a.1660751284172973/2443698765878217/?type=3&theater

antichrist
16-09-2019, 05:17 AM
https://www.facebook.com/AYCCOFFICIAL/photos/a.1660751284172973/2443698765878217/?type=3&theater
Michael you are an intelligent person why come up with this rubbish? To disagree with inconvenient disruption is understandable but to embrace ignorance there is no excuse for. I doubt that you even believe in your posts. Even Thatcher when making her maiden speech in British parliament about 45 years ago warned of climate change dangers. Don't you want the respect that you otherwise deserve

Ian Murray
16-09-2019, 08:21 AM
https://www.facebook.com/AYCCOFFICIAL/photos/a.1660751284172973/2443698765878217/?type=3&theater

Science doesn't care what you believe

Capablanca-Fan
16-09-2019, 08:54 AM
Michael you are an intelligent person why come up with this rubbish? To disagree with inconvenient disruption is understandable but to embrace ignorance there is no excuse for. I doubt that you even believe in your posts. Even Thatcher when making her maiden speech in British parliament about 45 years ago warned of climate change dangers. Don't you want the respect that you otherwise deserve

But Maggie was pushing for more nuclear power. That is why France and Sweden are so "green". But since the anti-nuclear scientific ignoramuses are a shrieking mob here, the next best is clean coal Rankine-cycle plants, as many countries are building.

antichrist
16-09-2019, 10:56 AM
But Maggie was pushing for more nuclear power. That is why France and Sweden are so "green". But since the anti-nuclear scientific ignoramuses are a shrieking mob here, the next best is clean coal Rankine-cycle plants, as many countries are building.

I think hydro and solar are much cleaner than clean coal with less greenhouse effects. I used to cook with wood when a youngster but it is not allowed in the cities due to smoke. Whereas I am cooking with solar electricity now - at least when the sun is shining.

Desmond
16-09-2019, 11:35 AM
But Maggie was pushing for more nuclear power. That is why France and Sweden are so "green". But since the anti-nuclear scientific ignoramuses are a shrieking mob here, the next best is clean coal Rankine-cycle plants, as many countries are building.

Next best on what basis? If you dislike government subsidies you should dislike coal.

Global fossil fuel subsidies reach $5.2 trillion, and $29 billion in Australia (https://reneweconomy.com.au/global-fossil-fuel-subsidies-reach-5-2-trillion-and-29-billion-in-australia-91592/)

...The IMF estimates that annual energy subsidies in Australia total $29 billion, representing 2.3 per cent of Australian GDP. On a per capita basis, Australian fossil fuel subsidies amount to $1,198 per person. ...

Patrick Byrom
16-09-2019, 12:39 PM
LOL a reminder that it is Yeltsin that brought Putin to Power. and before his actions (under Gorbachev) my family could already travel out of Russia freely.That may have changed if Gorbachev had been overthrown. So that still counts as an example of you benefitting from a protest.

antichrist
16-09-2019, 12:44 PM
But Maggie was pushing for more nuclear power. That is why France and Sweden are so "green". But since the anti-nuclear scientific ignoramuses are a shrieking mob here, the next best is clean coal Rankine-cycle plants, as many countries are building.

On the moral level don't you believe that God gave us this planet to be custodians and co-habitators with His other creatures and not destroyers of His holy creation. Also didn't He whip the money dudes out of the temple?

Ian Murray
16-09-2019, 01:47 PM
But Maggie was pushing for more nuclear power. That is why France and Sweden are so "green".

54 nuclear plants are under construction worldwide (https://www.statista.com/statistics/513671/number-of-under-construction-nuclear-reactors-worldwide/), 33 of them in China. Conversely 174 were permanently shuttered this year.


...the next best is clean coal Rankine-cycle plants, as many countries are building.

Nowhere near next best. Coal is 19th century technology with a bleak future; tweaking efficiency from 35% to 40% with Rankine-cycle units does not make coal any greener or less toxic, or remove the CO2 emissions and waste products problems.


...The IEA says global coal investment has already peaked and is now in a “dramatic slowdown”. It says that China, which is building much of the current pipeline, has no need for new plants.

This fall in investment means coal capacity growth is slowing... In 2011, global coal capacity increased by 82GW. This figure was 75% lower in 2018, at 20GW.

The number of plants newly under construction each year is falling even faster, down 84% since 2015, according to the latest annual status report from Global Energy Monitor, Greenpeace and the Sierra Club. Meanwhile, coal retirements are at historically unprecedented levels, with the 31GW of closures in 2018 a close third behind 2015 and 2016.

All this means that global coal power capacity could peak as soon as 2022, last year’s status report said. (A new and potentially higher cap on coal capacity in China casts doubt on this outlook, see below for more.)

Intriguingly, the number of coal units in the world could already have peaked... In 2017, the number of units increased by just six, down from a net of 273 in 2006. In 2018, the number of units decreased by seven....
https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants

The cost of new wind and solar has now undercut the cost of new coal in many regions. And there is a more recent development in renewable energy. As costs have fallen dramatically, hydrogen power is now a viable alternative and plants are under construction in NW Australia, aiming at the export market to replace coal exports. Hydrogen has the potential to power not only the electricity grid but also industry and transportation.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/renewable-hydrogen-getting-cheaper-australia-could-lead-global-market-95168/

Patrick Byrom
16-09-2019, 03:40 PM
54 nuclear plants are under construction worldwide (https://www.statista.com/statistics/513671/number-of-under-construction-nuclear-reactors-worldwide/), 33 of them in China. Conversely 174 were permanently shuttered this year.And what do China, France, Britain (under Thatcher) and Sweden (to a lesser extent) have in common - strong centralised governments :)
This is what Capablanca-Fan presumably wants for Australia as well.

MichaelBaron
16-09-2019, 10:09 PM
Next best on what basis? If you dislike government subsidies you should dislike coal.

Global fossil fuel subsidies reach $5.2 trillion, and $29 billion in Australia (https://reneweconomy.com.au/global-fossil-fuel-subsidies-reach-5-2-trillion-and-29-billion-in-australia-91592/)

...The IMF estimates that annual energy subsidies in Australia total $29 billion, representing 2.3 per cent of Australian GDP. On a per capita basis, Australian fossil fuel subsidies amount to $1,198 per person. ...

I have a deal for ''environmentalists'' lets discuss different energy solutions and fuel etc solutions...but purely on the basis of economic efficiency. The point about subsidies is indeed a good point. Can we agree to focus on quantitative economic impact of the options available rather than ''save the planet" stuff?

Patrick Byrom
16-09-2019, 10:39 PM
I have a deal for ''environmentalists'' lets discuss different energy solutions and fuel etc solutions...but purely on the basis of economic efficiency. The point about subsidies is indeed a good point. Can we agree to focus on quantitative economic impact of the options available rather than ''save the planet" stuff?Yeah - let's forget about people dying in bushfires and hurricanes made much worse by global heating, and the destruction of the Barrier Reef, and just focus on saving a few dollars on fuel!

antichrist
16-09-2019, 10:50 PM
I have a deal for ''environmentalists'' lets discuss different energy solutions and fuel etc solutions...but purely on the basis of economic efficiency. The point about subsidies is indeed a good point. Can we agree to focus on quantitative economic impact of the options available rather than ''save the planet" stuff?

Michael, you can cheaply buy an exercise bike that generates electricity as you pedal - no subsidies, no fuel costs, no infrastructure costs. Your pants will be bursting with all the dollars you will be saving.

Ian Murray
17-09-2019, 12:02 AM
...Can we agree to focus on quantitative economic impact of the options available rather than ''save the planet" stuff?

No. Under the Paris Accord, all nations except Syria agreed to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions leading to complete decarbonisation. Saving the planet is the priority.

MichaelBaron
17-09-2019, 12:15 AM
No. Under the Paris Accord, all nations except Syria agreed to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions leading to complete decarbonisation. Saving the planet is the priority.

LOL..here we go...saving the planet :)

MichaelBaron
17-09-2019, 12:18 AM
Michael, you can cheaply buy an exercise bike that generates electricity as you pedal - no subsidies, no fuel costs, no infrastructure costs. Your pants will be bursting with all the dollars you will be saving.
Opportunity cost of time to generate this energy...

antichrist
17-09-2019, 12:23 AM
Opportunity cost of time to generate this energy...

Can generate whilst chatting on here in between posts, non stop whilst watching TV. We will save so much on health bills that will leave for dead any savings on coal dirty or clean.

MichaelBaron
17-09-2019, 03:34 AM
Can generate whilst chatting on here in between posts, non stop whilst watching TV. We will save so much on health bills that will leave for dead any savings on coal dirty or clean.

While watching TV...:) :) :).
Brilliant way to decrease energy consumption...

antichrist
17-09-2019, 07:51 AM
While watching TV...:) :) :).
Brilliant way to decrease energy consumption...

My wife religiously does one hour solid on her exercise bike with those arm extensions - best thing for her health, saves a fortune on medicines etc.. She blasts the tv on her favourite program so it wont be boring. It could easily be connected to an easy pushing electricity generator, just like the bike head lights used to be powered by a generator on the wheel. If extended families lived together like in my young days the youngsters would do it for the oldies - instead of injuring their bodies on silly skateboards. Skateboard injuries will be crippling the older generations in the future - tonnes of unnecessary health costs there and shortened working lives. Volley ball is another silly game - full of injuries. (I will shut up about boxing and rugby league but at least they get paid handsomely).

Ian Murray
17-09-2019, 09:07 AM
LOL..here we go...saving the planet :)

You're learning, however begrudgingly. A while ago you thought the effects of global warming could be reversed; now you know they can't.

antichrist
17-09-2019, 09:51 AM
On the moral level don't you believe that God gave us this planet to be custodians and co-habitators with His other creatures and not destroyers of His holy creation. Also didn't He whip the money dudes out of the temple?

On the same note, if people believe that God made all the creatures aren't we rebelling against God by wiping out his species with man made climate change? We are giving God the middle finger.

MichaelBaron
18-09-2019, 01:27 AM
We are giving God the middle finger.

So much for being constructive...

MichaelBaron
18-09-2019, 02:30 AM
You're learning, however begrudgingly. A while ago you thought the effects of global warming could be reversed; now you know they can't.

I do not think I wake up in the morning thinking ''how should we save our planet today''

Capablanca-Fan
18-09-2019, 06:43 AM
Renewable Energy Will Only Be Possible With Massive Increases in the Supply of Critical Minerals (https://townhall.com/columnists/stephenmoore/2019/09/17/renewable-energy-will-only-be-possible-with-massive-increases-in-the-supply-of-critical-minerals-n2553204)
Stephen Moore, 17 Sep 2019

The recent threats by Beijing to cut off American access to critical mineral imports has many Americans wondering why our politicians have allowed the United States to become so overly dependent on China for these valued resources in the first place.

Today, the United States is 90% dependent on China and Russia for many vital "rare earth minerals."

The main reason for our overreliance on nations like China for these minerals is not that we are running out of these resources here at home. The U.S. Mining Association estimates that we have at least $5 trillion of recoverable mineral resources.

The U.S. Geological Survey reports that we still have up to 86% or more of key mineral resources like copper and zinc remaining in the ground, waiting to be mined. These resources aren't on environmentally sensitive lands, like national parks, but on the millions of acres of federal, state and private lands.

The mining isn't happening because of extremely prohibitive environmental rules and a permitting process that can take five to 10 years to open a new mine. Green groups simply resist almost all new drilling.

What they may not realize is that the de facto mining prohibitions jeopardize the "green energy revolution" that liberals are so desperately seeking.

antichrist
18-09-2019, 08:36 AM
So much for being constructive...

I am attempting to somehow appeal to people who have different baseline values to myself so I couch in language they may relate to. Just like in chess you must try different approaches around a problem.

The important issue is whether my assessment is inaccurate or not. Some people need to be cajoled into thinking. Including yourself.

Ian Murray
18-09-2019, 09:02 AM
Renewable Energy Will Only Be Possible With Massive Increases in the Supply of Critical Minerals (https://townhall.com/columnists/stephenmoore/2019/09/17/renewable-energy-will-only-be-possible-with-massive-increases-in-the-supply-of-critical-minerals-n2553204)
Stephen Moore, 17 Sep 2019

The recent threats by Beijing to cut off American access to critical mineral imports has many Americans wondering why our politicians have allowed the United States to become so overly dependent on China for these valued resources in the first place.

Today, the United States is 90% dependent on China and Russia for many vital "rare earth minerals."

The main reason for our overreliance on nations like China for these minerals is not that we are running out of these resources here at home.…

The main reason is that prices are too low to support US mining. The only US mine in production (https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/us-rare-earths-mine-nationalized/) went broke in 2015

antichrist
18-09-2019, 09:07 AM
I do not think I wake up in the morning thinking ''how should we save our planet today''

It's like:daddy what did you do during the war". You can proudly say you did a Donald Trump.

Blunderbuss
18-09-2019, 12:08 PM
'Going to the streets again': what you need to know about Friday's climate strike. Organisers expect a stronger presence from unions, workers and companies as student activists reach out to adults

The details for capital cities are as follows (all times are local).

• Sydney 12 noon – The Domain

• Melbourne 2pm – Treasury Gardens

• Brisbane 1pm – Queens Gardens

• Canberra 12 noon –Glebe Park

• Adelaide 12 noon – Victoria Square

• Darwin 1pm – Parliament

• Perth 11am – Forrest Place

• Hobart 12 pm – Parliament

The full list of strike locations is here (https://www.schoolstrike4climate.com/sept20)

antichrist
18-09-2019, 01:49 PM
There is also Byron Bay 20am at Rec
Grounds

Blunderbuss
18-09-2019, 02:46 PM
20am ??? 10-12am https://www.facebook.com/events/2208261772804940/ (https://www.facebook.com/events/2208261772804940/)

Patrick Byrom
18-09-2019, 05:55 PM
20am ??? ... Byron Bay is in a different reality :)

Patrick Byrom
18-09-2019, 05:57 PM
I do not think I wake up in the morning thinking ''how should we save our planet today''Why not? Haven't you learnt anything from the courses on ethics you teach?

antichrist
18-09-2019, 07:44 PM
Byron Bay is in a different reality :)

smart phone big fingers wrong glasses says it all - thanks

Ian Murray
18-09-2019, 09:52 PM
The fight to contain climate change – Implementing Paris, mobilizing action (https://www.brookings.edu/blog/planetpolicy/2019/09/16/the-fight-to-contain-climate-change-implementing-paris-mobilizing-action/?utm_campaign=Brookings%20Brief&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=76962203)
Brookings Institution
16.9.19

...Change in attitudes and expectations is starting to happen. Look at the current Democratic presidential primary in the United States, where climate change has become a top concern of voters in a way that wasn’t remotely the case even in 2016. Look at the worldwide student strikes inspired by the Swedish teenager Greta Thunberg. Look at the examples of exceptional leadership at the state level in the United States in places like California and New York, among others. And U.N. Secretary General Guterres is using his office and authority to make clear what leaders around the world need to do.

But more has to happen. We need to hasten the coming of that tipping point when business-as-usual politicians and corporate leaders understand they will fail, lose office, lose their standing, or be left behind unless they meet the climate challenge head on. These kinds of things can happen. These kinds of things have happened. In a recent New Yorker interview with Elizabeth Kolbert and Bill McKibben, McKibben recalled that on the original Earth Day, April 22, 1970, 20 million people took to the streets to demand change. In the aftermath of that mobilization and all that led to it came, in short order, the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act, the Endangered Species Act, and the creation of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The future is in our hands.

ER
19-09-2019, 02:19 AM
The main reason is that prices are too low to support US mining. The only US mine in production (https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/us-rare-earths-mine-nationalized/) went broke in 2015

Poor coal production companies in the US, their going broke makes me feel guilty to the point of returning my profits made on shares last year.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-27/gas-s-pain-is-coal-s-gain-as-u-s-mining-reaches-16-month-high

Desmond
19-09-2019, 02:32 PM
Poor coal production companies in the US, their going broke makes me feel guilty to the point of returning my profits made on shares last year.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-27/gas-s-pain-is-coal-s-gain-as-u-s-mining-reaches-16-month-high

Coal production in the US is in long term decline.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2017.02.08/main.png

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29872

MichaelBaron
20-09-2019, 02:17 AM
Why not? Haven't you learnt anything from the courses on ethics you teach?

There is a chapter on sustainability...so when discussing it..I welcome students to express their views and express mine and we discuss what sustainability is...
Overall, we got far more important issues to address such as Workplace Relations and Ethical issues in the workplaces along with ethical/unethical deployment of technologies.

I would like to assure you that students are finding issues of Privacy on Facebook, Digital Marketplaces, Crypto etc. far more interesting than climate change.

MichaelBaron
20-09-2019, 02:21 AM
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/09/15/parents-told-not-terrify-children-climate-change-rising-numbers/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw&fbclid=IwAR3eynb7uta87u5twtah2kVEfUSumenMq3Xvow2hu YiExvlZlbUtdGmg4fc

Parents need to see a Dr along with the kids I guess...
P.S. I asked asked some of my friends who have young kids if they consider discussing climate change with their kids as ''important part of parenting'' and they got hysterical :). Needless to say parents are coming from Chinese/Indian/Lankan background...so they got better things to bother about :)

Capablanca-Fan
20-09-2019, 02:33 AM
Coal production in the US is in long term decline.

Of course, because of the fracking revolution (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fracking-revolution-thats-made-the-us-the-top-global-oil-producer-is-boosting-the-economy-and-curbing-emissions-too-2019-03-22) that the Greenies opposed.

Natural gas is not just ‘greener’, but a better fuel than coal because it makes it easier to design the more efficient combined-cycle plants (https://www.ques10.com/p/17195/advantages-of-combine-cycle-power-plant/): i.e. the gas powers a Brayton-cycle gas turbine, then its waste heat powers (https://www.ge.com/power/resources/knowledge-base/combined-cycle-power-plant-how-it-works) a Rankine-cycle steam engine.

In the rest of the world, it's booming. Do you want to deny developing countries the benefits of cheap energy? E.g. China generates more than 70 percent of its electricity from coal, and is building many coal plants abroad (https://www.npr.org/2019/04/29/716347646/why-is-china-placing-a-global-bet-on-coal).

antichrist
20-09-2019, 08:05 AM
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/09/15/parents-told-not-terrify-children-climate-change-rising-numbers/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw&fbclid=IwAR3eynb7uta87u5twtah2kVEfUSumenMq3Xvow2hu YiExvlZlbUtdGmg4fc

Parents need to see a Dr along with the kids I guess...
P.S. I asked asked some of my friends who have young kids if they consider discussing climate change with their kids as ''important part of parenting'' and they got hysterical :). Needless to say parents are coming from Chinese/Indian/Lankan background...so they got better things to bother about :)

But go to China and India and see how polluted their cities and rivers are. There is never a shortage of money extremists without morals. Business circles are full of them. What else is new. That sister of mine will only have expensive Mercs. or BMWs but how does that improve the world. One immortality justifies another immortality until we reach wrecked biosphere or Holocaust

Patrick Byrom
20-09-2019, 11:57 AM
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/09/15/parents-told-not-terrify-children-climate-change-rising-numbers/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw&fbclid=IwAR3eynb7uta87u5twtah2kVEfUSumenMq3Xvow2hu YiExvlZlbUtdGmg4fc
Parents need to see a Dr along with the kids I guess... P.S. I asked asked some of my friends who have young kids if they consider discussing climate change with their kids as ''important part of parenting'' and they got hysterical :). Needless to say parents are coming from Chinese/Indian/Lankan background...so they got better things to bother about :)Young children don't need to told much about global heating. But teenage children will learn about it at school, so the parents should definitely be talking about it with them. If they are living in Australia, the effects of global heating are constantly in the news during summer, so it's hard to avoid.

Ian Murray
20-09-2019, 01:47 PM
...China generates more than 70 percent of its electricity from coal, and is building many coal plants abroad.

Now less than 60% (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-energy/chinas-2018-coal-usage-rises-1-percent-but-share-of-energy-mix-falls-idUSKCN1QH0C4), with a 2020 target of 58%

Ian Murray
20-09-2019, 01:53 PM
Young children don't need to told much about global heating. But teenage children will learn about it at school, so the parents should definitely be talking about it with them. If they are living in Australia, the effects of global heating are constantly in the news during summer, so it's hard to avoid.

My teenage grandkids are well informed on global warming. When they ask what am I doing about it, I can give them rational answers

antichrist
20-09-2019, 03:36 PM
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/09/15/parents-told-not-terrify-children-climate-change-rising-numbers/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw&fbclid=IwAR3eynb7uta87u5twtah2kVEfUSumenMq3Xvow2hu YiExvlZlbUtdGmg4fc

Parents need to see a Dr along with the kids I guess...
P.S. I asked asked some of my friends who have young kids if they consider discussing climate change with their kids as ''important part of parenting'' and they got hysterical :). Needless to say parents are coming from Chinese/Indian/Lankan background...so they got better things to bother about :)

Michael, I still love you because you drive little and is not overpopulating - well done. Actions speak louder than words.

antichrist
20-09-2019, 03:40 PM
https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/news/hundreds-of-climate-change-protesters-shut-down-melbourne-bridge/news-story/2c683178b12ce50ce78b4be138a7dc40?fbclid=IwAR1vXCw-CE5bQJIhpwIDKY9u8sirDLJL-p5aQeSs_U4j3UfD4Bscd0DSgpQ

Police had to carry them out...what sort of uncivilised behaviour is that? Police is asking them to stop and leave they do not...Welcome to the world of the professional climate change protesters...

Well Michael, I have been a ring leader at times in the annual nude bicycle ride for the environment - we did not hold the traffic up too much but letting it all hang out came to nought so now more disruptive action is necessary. I was told that Byron traffic was held up 1.5 hours this morning but was impossible for me to attend in spite of good intentions.

MichaelBaron
20-09-2019, 04:54 PM
Young children don't need to told much about global heating. But teenage children will learn about it at school, so the parents should definitely be talking about it with them. If they are living in Australia, the effects of global heating are constantly in the news during summer, so it's hard to avoid.

No need to avoid...good to know whats going on in the world...if parents take it with sarcasm...kids are less likely to see it as a drama

MichaelBaron
20-09-2019, 04:55 PM
My teenage grandkids are well informed on global warming. When they ask what am I doing about it, I can give them rational answers

Good to be informed...just imagining kids setting such questions as priority to be asked from parents...and feels funny.

Ian Murray
20-09-2019, 05:21 PM
No need to avoid...good to know whats going on in the world...if parents take it with sarcasm...kids are less likely to see it as a drama

It's not a joke. The existential issue of our time.

Ian Murray
20-09-2019, 06:30 PM
If you’re Australian, chances are your bank and super fund are helping make climate change worse – here’s how to find out (https://www.businessinsider.com.au/divest-climate-change-banks-australia-2019-9)
Business Insider Australia
20.9.19

Climate change. If you plan on sticking around on this planet a while, then you’re right to be seriously concerned about it.

You certainly wouldn’t be alone. The vast majority of Australians are concerned it’s going to lead to more droughts, floods, and water shortages, according to the latest survey by The Australian Institute.

READ MORE: Why we’re walking off the job to protest climate change – and why you should too

While it’s great that Australians are switched on to the threat climate change poses, it doesn’t do a whole lot of good unless you act on it as well, according to former Greenpeace campaigner Julien Vincent. He left Greenpeace to start Market Forces, an organisation that aims to hold Australia’s financial institutions to account on the environment.

“Most Australians want to see action taken on climate change. But the vast majority are unaware that the custodians of our money, companies like banks and superannuation funds, almost exclusively invest in coal, oil and gas and highly polluting companies,” Vincent told Business Insider Australia.

Given it’s mandatory for every worker in the country to have a superannuation account, it’s especially incumbent on Australians to know where their money is going.

“By demanding our retirement savings are kept out of companies that are pushing us towards runaway climate change, or moving to a bank that won’t help the expansion of industries like coal, oil and gas, there is phenomenal potential to decarbonise the economy and push finance investment from polluting industries to their clean replacements,” Vincent said.

“We still need governments to act but it’s great to know that we’re not limited by that, and can pursue change through our wallets, bank accounts, insurance and super funds.”...

ER
20-09-2019, 09:34 PM
As it was told to me by a mate in Melbourne!

enraged motorists during a silly climate demonstration the other day hurled abuse
against demonstrators without losing their sense of humour! :D

what do we want? unblock the effing bridge!!!
when do we want it? now!!!

Seriously, he said, it was the first time in my life I saw cops being applauded for pulling the scumbags out of the way!

Students who missed classes to go to the demonstration should be put in detention and write (hand written no copy and paste crap) 1000 times

"I won't miss school for irrelevant reasons ever again!"

As for teachers and their stupid public disobedience encouragement should be sent to Simpson Desert to plant trees! :D


“By demanding our retirement savings are kept out of companies that are pushing us towards runaway climate change, or moving to a bank that won’t help the expansion of industries like coal, oil and gas, …"

Cool story bro, that's a sound advice to receive the colossal interest of 1.2% p/a :P

MichaelBaron
20-09-2019, 10:16 PM
https://www.3aw.com.au/uni-students-offered-full-marks-on-assessment-if-they-take-a-selfie-at-climate-protest/?fbclid=IwAR3Xxx-zHQprj8yDa0CwchuKAfKArUM37KZgj931uJzR-0OtQWnqVAyK9C4

Now waiting for RMIT to comment....may be I should enquire at my uni if I can offer marks to students for going To Flying Cookie Monster summit.
Stupidity increases much faster than global temperatures!

ER
20-09-2019, 10:31 PM
… Stupidity increases much faster than global temperatures!

and it's certainly more harmful! :D :P

MichaelBaron
20-09-2019, 10:57 PM
and it's certainly more harmful! :D :P

So tHIS IS HOW Assessment workS these days: SELFIE AT CLIMATE CHANGE RALLY - 5% INDIGENOUS DANCE 10% SAVING A LAMB FROM FARMERS -10%...to be continued...

Capablanca-Fan
21-09-2019, 02:35 AM
Now less than 60% (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-energy/chinas-2018-coal-usage-rises-1-percent-but-share-of-energy-mix-falls-idUSKCN1QH0C4), with a 2020 target of 58%

Thank you for the correction and source. An interesting article:


China’s coal consumption rose for a second year in a row in 2018, but coal’s share of total energy consumption fell below 60 percent for the first time as cleaner energy sources gained ground, official data showed on Thursday.

The world’s biggest coal consumer used 1 percent more coal in absolute terms last year than in 2017, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said in an annual communique. Coal consumption had risen for the first time in four years in 2017.

However, coal accounted for only 59 percent of China’s overall energy consumption last year, down 1.4 percentage points from 2017, while gas, nuclear power and renewable energy combined accounted for 22.1 percent, up 1.3 percentage points.

That brings the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases closer to its target of reducing the proportion of coal in its energy mix to below 58 percent by 2020.

The result came as China’s total energy consumption rose by 3.3 percent year-on-year in 2018, the data showed. Electricity usage rose 8.5 percent last year, according to the National Energy Administration.

“The good news is that renewable energy continued to grow rapidly in 2018, and new aggressive air pollution policies were introduced,” Lauri Myllyvirta, an analyst at environmental group Greenpeace, said in a note.

However, a rapid rise in energy consumption, including increased residential electricity usage, still resulted in the biggest gain in CO2 emissions since at least 2013, Myllyvirta said.

And notice gas and nuclear stations are increasing, something many greenies oppose. China is indeed increasing renewables by 12% (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-renewables/chinas-2018-renewable-power-capacity-up-12-percent-on-year-idUSKCN1PM0HM):


Total capacity—including hydro and biomass as well as solar and wind—rose to 728 gigawatts (GW) by end-2018, the National Energy Administration (NEA) said during a briefing.

That amounted to 38.3 percent of China’s total installed power capacity, up 1.7 percentage points on the year and around 7 percentage points higher than at the end of 2015.

China hooked up another 20.59 GW of new wind power capacity to its grid in 2018, the NEA said. New solar capacity reached 44.3 GW, slightly higher than a figure given by an industry association earlier this month, but still down compared to 2017 following a decision to slash subsidies.

China also completed another 8.54 GW of hydropower capacity, mostly in the nation’s southwest, bringing total hydropower to 352 GW by the year’s end.

antichrist
21-09-2019, 06:22 AM
and it's certainly more harmful! :D :P

Of course it is more harmful because without stupidity you can't have man made global warming and it's denial. Without stupidity you can't have immorality. The problem is that some humans believe we are above nature and not part of it. I don't understand how chess players can be so concerned whether P-e4 or P-e3 but so unconcerned whether temperature +1 or +2. That's it, to encourage understanding we need chess boards that the squares towards the hot centre of the board graduate to a hot red colour. That unfortunately I cannot demonstrate here. The concept could be called Climate Change for Chess Dummies

Ian Murray
21-09-2019, 08:58 AM
Thank you for the correction and source. An interesting article:


China’s coal consumption rose for a second year in a row in 2018, but coal’s share of total energy consumption fell below 60 percent for the first time as cleaner energy sources gained ground, official data showed on Thursday.

The world’s biggest coal consumer used 1 percent more coal in absolute terms last year than in 2017, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said in an annual communique. Coal consumption had risen for the first time in four years in 2017.

However, coal accounted for only 59 percent of China’s overall energy consumption last year, down 1.4 percentage points from 2017, while gas, nuclear power and renewable energy combined accounted for 22.1 percent, up 1.3 percentage points....

Absolute coal consumption fell for three consecutive years (2014 - 2017) before upticking again. China's target was to peak in 2030 under the Paris accord, but is tracking to beat that.

I'm wondering how long it will take before Trump's trade war really bites, reducing production of export goods and so reducing energy (and coal) demand. There is over-production of coal already, leading to a glut of the fuel and “severely disrupting” the market (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3005366/chinas-thermal-coal-imports-will-fall-10-12-million-tonnes-2019)