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Watto
29-03-2006, 06:30 PM
Is there a World Championship tourney about to start?

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I just found a page on Pinnacle with odds on a whole bunch of chess matches which they call "World Championship, Which Player will Advance?"

The matches are supposed to be on Tuesday and feature match ups like Shirov vs Adams, Polgar vs Bareev etc.

Does anyone know what this event is and where I can find the website? I need to know tonight if possible as I'd like to place bet on Kasimzjanov at 3.06 vs Gelfand, but want to check on what the time limit and format is first.

Thanks,

Guy.

Reposting this for Guy who mistakenly posted this where the newsbots post... is anxious for a reply. ;)

The_Wise_Man
29-03-2006, 07:50 PM
Check out the link Guy!

http://www.chessbase.com/newsdetail.asp?newsid=2845

pax
29-03-2006, 08:11 PM
That link is a couple of months old, and I can't find anything which mentions a location or dates..

Edit:

It's bollocks, Guy. Bidding for the matches only closed last Friday, and they are scheduled for October according to this:
http://www.fide.com/news.asp?id=896

Denis_Jessop
29-03-2006, 09:33 PM
That link is a couple of months old, and I can't find anything which mentions a location or dates..

Edit:

It's bollocks, Guy. Bidding for the matches only closed last Friday, and they are scheduled for October according to this:
http://www.fide.com/news.asp?id=896

On the Pinnacle site it gives the date as "Tues 8/1", which I take in US parlance to mean Tuesday 1 August - 1 August is a Tuesday. But after each match it says "Date: TBC" which I take to mean "Date to be confirmed", which has yet to happen so it appears on that site but FIDE says the first round of matches is to take place from 20 to 31 October 2006 and gives the draw at the link provided by Pax.

DJ

pax
29-03-2006, 10:33 PM
If you do place a bet, you want to be darn sure that you will get your cash back in the event of a draw change or withdrawal or event cancellation (all possibilities at this stage).

But I do agree that odds of 3-1 on Kasim seem way too good to pass up. I'd rate Kasim at least a slim favourite, especially given his ability at rapid chess (presumably the matches will involve rapid tie breaks).

Gattaca
29-03-2006, 11:00 PM
Thanks, everyone.

Gee, Pinnacle are quick off the mark! The tournament dates aren't even locked in yet and they're taking bets.

Obviously betting on an event which is probably not even going to take place until next year is a bit dodgy because of the opportunity cost of tying up the money, but it makes a bet on Carlsen (who is long odds against Aronian) more attractive as he seems to be on a very steep improvement curve and is already exceptionally dangerous. By next year he could be rated 5th or 6th in the world but your bet is locked in at a juicy 4.07.

It's interesting that in the past Pinnacle have run a book on lowly interclub chess fixtures in the US. It seems highly risky to me for a bookie to take bets on games where the financial incentive to win is so small compared to most sports that are bet on.

Games from events like the World Championship tourney, Linares, Corus, etc pose less of a risk to honest punters and bookies, as the players have much more to lose by throwing games at that level. But imagine interclub players being able to back their opponents for hundreds of dollars on Pinnacle... :confused:

Vlad
30-03-2006, 07:04 AM
Games from events like the World Championship tourney, Linares, Corus, etc pose less of a risk to honest punters and bookies, as the players have much more to lose by throwing games at that level. But imagine interclub players being able to back their opponents for hundreds of dollars on Pinnacle... :confused:

Sorry mate, but it seems you misunderstand how these betting houses work. You know what, they never loose.

pax
30-03-2006, 08:14 AM
Sorry mate, but it seems you misunderstand how these betting houses work. You know what, they never loose.

That doesn't mean that a smart punter can't win;)

Gattaca
31-03-2006, 12:18 AM
Sorry mate, but it seems you misunderstand how these betting houses work. You know what, they never loose.

With the greatest of respect Drug, I doubt there's a lot I can learn from you about online betting establishments. And they most certainly can lose, unless you are confusing online bookies with betting exchanges who simply take a percentage of the action they facilitate, or totalisator systems like the TAB.

Any online bookie worth their salt frequently has to take a position on an event. If you think they can balance their books on every event you're mistaken... it just doesn't happen that way in the real world.

Bookies can and do go broke, but the majority do well. They do well partly because of the mathematics of running a book, but also because there are a lot of bad punters out there.

Your post seems to imply that no-one can win betting on sport. That's incorrect. You've never heard of professional sports bettors? I have lots of them as clients. Even if bookies did always win, as Pax pointed out some bettors can still be winners. 95% of online bettors could be long term losers, 5% could be winners and the bookies could win as well.

Vlad
31-03-2006, 09:47 AM
With the greatest of respect Drug, I doubt there's a lot I can learn from you about online betting establishments. And they most certainly can lose, unless you are confusing online bookies with betting exchanges who simply take a percentage of the action they facilitate, or totalisator systems like the TAB.

Any online bookie worth their salt frequently has to take a position on an event. If you think they can balance their books on every event you're mistaken... it just doesn't happen that way in the real world.

Bookies can and do go broke, but the majority do well. They do well partly because of the mathematics of running a book, but also because there are a lot of bad punters out there.

Your post seems to imply that no-one can win betting on sport. That's incorrect. You've never heard of professional sports bettors? I have lots of them as clients. Even if bookies did always win, as Pax pointed out some bettors can still be winners. 95% of online bettors could be long term losers, 5% could be winners and the bookies could win as well.

I agree with all what you have said. I did not claim that no-one can win betting on sport. You just need to beat the market on average by more than you are implicitly paying to the bookies. If you well informed about the sport you certainly can do that.

I was saying that even if you win something you implicitly win it from some other betters not from the bookies; well unless the bookies are irrational. It is quite possible that a small proportion of them are, but that is not a generic case.

By mathematics I suppose you mean arbitrage. Of course, to make the arbitrage working you need more than 2-3 betters.

Rincewind
31-03-2006, 10:02 AM
Seems to me that the "smart" betters are making their money of the "dumb" betters. But dumb betters would only continue to bet based on irrational belief that one day it will pay off. IE They are the classic problem gamblers who are more in need of mental help than "ripping off".