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Kevin Bonham
12-12-2019, 09:41 PM
Final leg of the knockout GP, as a result of which two Candidates places will be determined.

Grischuk is very likely to qualify. He could in theory miss out if Mamedyarov wins and MVL is second, though this depends on both of these winning matches in regulation to collect the bonus point rather than going to tiebreak. Assuming Grischuk qualifies, quite a few players are potentially in line for the second spot if results go their way.

Every round 1 game was drawn so there will have to be some wins tonight if any bonus points are to be generated in this round.

Ian Rout
13-12-2019, 09:02 AM
Wesley So (who is still in contention himself) was the only winner without clock thumping (= bonus point) from the opening round, which means that Grischuk is through.

Kevin Bonham
13-12-2019, 09:07 AM
Wesley So (who is still in contention himself) was the only winner without clock thumping (= bonus point) from the opening round, which means that Grischuk is through.

Yes, if Mamedyarov wins then MVL can only tie Grischuk for second and would then lose on tiebreak.

MichaelBaron
13-12-2019, 10:15 AM
So far, only one game decisive game in the event.

Ian Rout
14-12-2019, 08:37 AM
Well, Shak has gone so it's down to MVL, Nepo and Wesley. The last two play each other in the quarter-finals, and then the winner plays MVL in the semi-final if he makes it; but if it's MVL v Wesley then Wesley has to win all his games with a bonus point and MVL not get a bonus point in the quarters. The final appears to be just about the cash whatever happens.

Someone with lots of spare time might want to check this.

Kevin Bonham
14-12-2019, 11:08 AM
Well, Shak has gone so it's down to MVL, Nepo and Wesley. The last two play each other in the quarter-finals, and then the winner plays MVL in the semi-final if he makes it; but if it's MVL v Wesley then Wesley has to win all his games with a bonus point and MVL not get a bonus point in the quarters. The final appears to be just about the cash whatever happens.

Someone with lots of spare time might want to check this.

Also even if MVL is eliminated by Andreikin and Wesley wins the tournament then Wesley still needs a bonus point from one of his two matches.

MichaelBaron
15-12-2019, 01:16 AM
GP is becoming a total joke....today's 4 games...4 draws ..8 moves, 20 moves etc....what is the point of such GP :)

ER
15-12-2019, 01:44 AM
GP is becoming a total joke....today's 4 games...4 draws ..8 moves, 20 moves etc....what is the point of such GP :)

:D I think that the point is that apart from chess Jerusalem is a beautiful city, abundant in sites very significant to her rich Jewish heritage, traditions and history!

Indeed this monotonous and boring series of jokes is unacceptable. FIDE should look at this negative phenomenon seriously.
When you have events like the GP "wasted" by the performances of some of the best players in the world, the outcome regarding the promotion of the game is rather negative!

Ian Rout
15-12-2019, 07:54 AM
The reason for the draws is that at this stage getting through to the next round is more useful than low-percentage winning attempts for a bonus point, especially when you're only playing for prizes, with the bonus of two de facto rest days.

The system is designed to generate the sugar hit of multiple blitz tie-breaks, so the draws in fact constitute a success.

MichaelBaron
15-12-2019, 10:29 AM
The reason for the draws is that at this stage getting through to the next round is more useful than low-percentage winning attempts for a bonus point, especially when you're only playing for prizes, with the bonus of two de facto rest days.

The system is designed to generate the sugar hit of multiple blitz tie-breaks, so the draws in fact constitute a success.
Karjakin needs to win at least 1 match without taking it to playoff to have a chance.
I just wonder of sponsors will bother with such events, I mean real sponsors - not the Russian companies that are instructed to sponsor :).

ER
15-12-2019, 02:08 PM
I just wonder of sponsors will bother with such events, I mean real sponsors - not the Russian companies that are instructed to sponsor :).

I wouldn't blame them if they didnt! I wouldn't sponsor watching paint dry or grass grow either! :D :P

Kevin Bonham
15-12-2019, 05:05 PM
GP is becoming a total joke....today's 4 games...4 draws ..8 moves, 20 moves etc....what is the point of such GP :)

They could impose Sofia rules on them but that would probably just lead to longer and equally boring draws. Probably they should do it anyway.

ElevatorEscapee
15-12-2019, 08:27 PM
PhosAgro is a Russian sponsor all about making the grass grow...

Maybe the issue is the games are benig played in such a peaceful city as Jerusalum, where everyone gets along, which is inspiring so many draws.
If they were played in a less peaceful city then maybe there would be some more fighting chess.

Ian Rout
15-12-2019, 08:34 PM
I wouldn't blame them if they didnt! I wouldn't sponsor watching paint dry or grass grow either! :D :PThe GP is looking redundant considering that there are already two Candidates places determined by two-game knockouts with rapid playoffs via the World Cup, which really is already at least one too many. It would be sensible to ditch the GP and have three places from a Grand Swiss. Or maybe more than one Grand Swiss. Or think of another format not requiring a GP, or at least not one in this format.

Kevin Bonham
17-12-2019, 06:37 PM
So has lost to Nepo and is out.

Nepo plays MVL, trailing MVL by four points. Nepo needs to win that match and beat the winner of Wei Yi - Navara.

ER
18-12-2019, 01:12 PM
The GP is looking redundant considering that there are already two Candidates places determined by two-game knockouts with rapid playoffs via the World Cup, which really is already at least one too many. It would be sensible to ditch the GP and have three places from a Grand Swiss. Or maybe more than one Grand Swiss. Or think of another format not requiring a GP, or at least not one in this format.

What's the news about Grischuk though? I have read a report that he has qualified regardless! Is that correct?

Kevin Bonham
18-12-2019, 01:40 PM
What's the news about Grischuk though? I have read a report that he has qualified regardless! Is that correct?

Yes and that was noted in post 2.

ER
18-12-2019, 01:54 PM
Yes and that was noted in post 2.

gotcha thanks had missed that!

MichaelBaron
18-12-2019, 04:33 PM
Curiously if Nepo qualifies...Alekseenko qualifies by default :).

Kevin Bonham
19-12-2019, 05:52 PM
Curiously if Nepo qualifies...Alekseenko qualifies by default :).

And Nepo has eliminated MVL so he has just one more match to win if that's to happen.

It seems now based on what has been said about the wild card that precisely two out of MVL, Nepo and Alekseenko will be Candidates.

Kevin Bonham
20-12-2019, 10:49 AM
Wei Yi is Nepo's opponent in the final. He won a crushing victory in the second rapid against Navara.

Kevin Bonham
22-12-2019, 11:55 AM
Nepo wins game 1 with black, so MVL's Candidates chances are hanging by a thread.

His opponent could have taken a draw on move 30 (by writing and declaring his intention to play 31.Qg4+). Eventuallly lost in 95 moves instead.

Kevin Bonham
23-12-2019, 12:33 PM
Nepo wins the match and is a Candidate, which presumably means Alekseenko is too and MVL is not.

Vlad
24-12-2019, 10:11 PM
Not sure if people in the western world follow this. After Russia nominated young GM Kirill Alekseenko (his uncle is my good mate and lives in Sydney) to play in the candidates, Russian speaking french GM Vachier-Lagrave published an article. Basically he is saying that it is not fair. Instead he is suggesting to play a match and see who is stronger and more deserving to play in the candidates.

P.S. Sort of reminds to me what happened about 5 years ago when Anton was challenged in a very similar way.

P.S.2 I presume it feels very unfair when you are number 7 in the world and you think that your spot is taken by number 37.:)

Kevin Bonham
24-12-2019, 10:32 PM
Not sure if people in the western world follow this. After Russia nominated young GM Kirill Alekseenko (his uncle is my good mate and lives in Sydney) to play in the candidates, Russian speaking french GM Vachier-Lagrave published an article. Basically he is saying that it is not fair. Instead he is suggesting to play a match and see who is stronger and more deserving to play in the candidates.

I really think FIDE should get rid of wild cards for the Candidates Matches.

Vlad
24-12-2019, 10:36 PM
Sure, but ex ante rather than ex post.

Kevin Bonham
24-12-2019, 10:40 PM
Sure, but ex ante rather than ex post.

Agreed.

Ian Rout
25-12-2019, 08:31 AM
Alekseenko may well be number 37 but he finished third in the Grand Swiss (second excluding the winner who was already qualified, and level with Carlsen but ahead on tie-break) and made the last 16 in the World Cup before being eliminated by Ding Liren.

Supposing there wasn't a wild card, how would the extra place be determined? It would be logical to have a second place from the Grand Swiss. That would mean two places each from the three qualifiers. More importantly, there are already four places from two-game knockouts (World Cup and GP) so there is more justification for a second place from the Swiss than a fifth place from knockouts. If you think of it that way, Alekseenko getting the wild card is merely restoring the place that he would already have if the wild card didn't exist.

However MVL is possibly on to something with his suggestion of a playoff match. Perhaps as part of the qualification process there could be a sort of repechage round robin of the eight nearest misses, which would give all the participants an equal last chance and address one of the holes in the system, namely that there are no qualifiers in the same format as the Candidates.

Vlad
25-12-2019, 10:17 AM
Interview by AD

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe2_5MhOITE&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR1RcRDXjWAQ0wnC-3dRN0K0IwYtLR1M-Pcl99ERxL4m-mW5Vd4DWj375es

MichaelBaron
25-12-2019, 01:07 PM
I really think FIDE should get rid of wild cards for the Candidates Matches.

There are wild cards in all sports though. In tennis for instance: each GrandSlam organiser can nominate 8 wild cards. Some are given away due to agreements between the organisers. For example. Each year, one of the Aus Open wild cards goes to a French player and one French open one - to Auzzie.

It does feel unfair where there are only 8 players. However, the reality is:
1) chess is the only sport where Russians have not been ''kicked out'' due to doping scandals...so they will want to make the most of it
2) The Russian Chess Federation announced ''wild card qualification process'' at the time when there was a possibility - no Russian player was going to qualify by normal means
3) At least there are some restrictions in place or else wild card would go to Karjakin simply because he/his manager would pull some political triggers
4) with all due respect to VL ....he had a chance to qualify - he just had to beat Nepo..but he did not. Ok its unfair...but what about Anand, Aronian etc...if a tournament is held in Armenia or India...who would nominate VL?
5) Changing the rules at such a late stage would cause chaos.

other than that, VL does have a point!

Garvinator
26-12-2019, 09:09 PM
Michael, there is a large difference here between a wild card place in the Candidates and a wild card for a tennis grand slam. For the candidates tournament, all other seven players earnt their way in through previous playing performances. And the criteria to get into the candidates is clearly spelt out before the cycle begins.

With tennis, we are talking about a few wildcards in a field of 128 players. And those wildcards usually go to some local junior, a trade as you have mentioned, to a player who is coming back from injury and did not qualify for protected ranking status. Or even further, the grand slam will give a wildcard to the furthest qualifier from qualifying rounds who did not get in.

But, as being shown with this wildcard for the candidates, it is going to a Russian because the Fide President wants another Russian in the candidates. It is this country bias and cronyism that we were told was going to be gone with no Kirsan around.

As how the eight placed person should qualify:

1) Winner of the third v fourth playoff at the World Cup
2) Increase the number of spots for rating qualification by one
3) Highest place on rating not already qualified from latest rating list
4) Another spot from the GP series

Any of these are transparent, the players know what they are competing for and more interest is retained longer in the qualifiers