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Ian Rout
08-10-2019, 03:41 PM
The FIDE Grand Swiss commences in two days (10 October) on the Isle of Man, unfortunately at midnight Australian Eastern time. The official site is

https://iominternationalchess.com/

I thought someone might put up a poll, so then I thought the absence of one was nature's way of telling me to do it myself. However then I further thought that a fantasy league type format might be a more appropriate competition than a winner-take-all shootout, and this doesn't really work as a poll.

So here are my proposed Rules.

1. Selections or changes to be posted here time-stamped before start of play for Round 2.

2. Select seven players as follows.


A: One player rated under 2900 (that covers everybody).

B and C: Two players under 2800.

D: One player under 2700.

E: One player under 2600.

F: One non-GM not already selected (any rating).

G: One "home" player not already selected (any rating or title).

3. Team scores to be the sum of the seven individual scores plus a 3-point bonus for the player who wins the Candidates qualifying spot.

4. In the event of a tie, the first tie-break is the top-scoring individual player (any category), second tie-break the second highest, etc.

Definitions:

- Ratings to be those at the start of the tournament (October 2019 list).

- For category F, a GM means strictly an OTB GM, and doesn't include WGM or correspondence, problem composing etc GM.

- For category G, "home" players are Manx residents and players registered to England, Scotland, Ireland or Wales, as listed on the above site.

- For Rule 3, the Candidates qualifying spot is not necessarily the same thing as the tournament winner. Carlsen, Caruana, Radjabov and Ding would not take the spot (Radjabov and Ding are not playing however) and so would not earn the 3-point bonus while a lower-placed player would.

It would be too messy to post the full list of players here so you can see them at the above link under "Who's Playing". Note that the players are across two lists, FIDE and Organiser's, but are all in the one tournament, and the Major and Minor don't concern us.

You should check the tables after the first round for any last-minute dropouts (not sure if drop-ins are still allowed) and amend your team if necessary.

Ian Rout
10-10-2019, 11:58 AM
OK, I'll go first. My team (see definitions in post 1):

A: GM M. Carlsen
B: GM Yu Yangyi
C: GM L. Aronian
D: GM B. Adhiban
E: GM A. Puranik
F: IM J. Houska
G: GM L. McShane

Play starts tonight our time - I previously said it was midnight but according to chess24 it's 1am (unless it's broadcast with a delay). chess24 also has the pairings up, as does the official site via chess-results.

Entries (for this competition, not the tournament) close at the start of Round 2.

MichaelBaron
10-10-2019, 03:09 PM
And the lost of the participants includes: Brandon Clarke who spent a lot of time in Australia in recent years. Not sure how he got in...but will done and good luck!

ElevatorEscapee
10-10-2019, 07:03 PM
Is Anish Giri protecting his rating by withdrawing, and thus his chance at qualifying for the Candidates?

(Sorry Ian, I'm not sure I understand your poll, it seems to be as complicated to me as some of those online betting mulit-thingies).

Ian Rout
10-10-2019, 07:13 PM
Is Anish Giri protecting his rating by withdrawing, and thus his chance at qualifying for the Candidates?
Probably.


(Sorry Ian, I'm not sure I understand your poll, it seems to be as complicated to me as some of those online betting mulit-thingies).Yes, that's the point. If nobody follows it I can declare myself the winner on Saturday.

halfnatty
10-10-2019, 07:15 PM
A. Magnus Carlsen
B. Wesley So
C. Alexander Grischuk
D. Daniil Dubov
E. Eltaj Safarli
F. Vincent Keymer
G. Gawain Jones

Desmond
10-10-2019, 07:56 PM
A. Carlsen
B. So
C. Aronian
D. Ponomariov
E. Hess
F. Bjerre
G. McShane

Kevin Bonham
10-10-2019, 07:57 PM
Pairings, with a full list of players by rating in one list rather than two, here:

https://chess24.com/en/watch/live-tournaments/fide-grand-swiss-2019/1/1/1

Kevin Bonham
10-10-2019, 08:37 PM
This is going to be one heck of a thing.

A. Carlsen
B. So
C. Karjakin
D. Alekseenko
E. Grandelius
F. Keymer
G. Howell

Desmond
11-10-2019, 12:42 PM
A few significant upsets in round 1 including Anand, as well as Howell & Gawain Jones from the "G camp".

Ian Rout
11-10-2019, 03:04 PM
I'm pretty sure that I saw the Board 38 game somewhere else not too long ago.

A reminder that predictions close 1am tomorrow (Sat 12/10), ref post #1.

MichaelBaron
11-10-2019, 05:54 PM
Magnus was playing with fire! At one point - his position looked almost ''totally lost' - but he kept on playing for a win!

ER
12-10-2019, 05:51 AM
Magnus was playing with fire! At one point - his position looked almost ''totally lost' - but he kept on playing for a win!

He managed to draw finally!
Good to see Alexei Shirov playing well and enjoying his game!

Ian Rout
13-10-2019, 11:08 AM
Scores so far by my count:

3916

MichaelBaron
13-10-2019, 12:52 PM
Magnus once again let advantage slip

ER
14-10-2019, 02:56 AM
Magnus is losing tonight, I (my chess program that is) don't think he can get out of this!
Obviously my chess program and I talk crap, Magnus has just equalized!

Desmond
14-10-2019, 08:34 AM
Carlsen on just 2.5/4, 1 point off the pace.

MichaelBaron
14-10-2019, 12:27 PM
Magnus is losing tonight, I (my chess program that is) don't think he can get out of this!
Obviously my chess program and I talk crap, Magnus has just equalized!

It was amazing..how badly he started playing at some point..yet..how he found the best moves once his opponent started missing easy wins.
I think in such events, he sometimes lacks focus - particularly during early rounds.

Ian Rout
15-10-2019, 11:30 AM
Scores after Round 5:
3918

MIRKO
15-10-2019, 03:23 PM
Good to see Alexei Shirov playing well and enjoying his game!

Shirov is playing really well,his big test is his next game !!

MichaelBaron
16-10-2019, 01:43 PM
Magnus is catching up!

Ian Rout
18-10-2019, 11:11 AM
After last night Aronian and Carlsen are tied on 5.5 with seven players on 5. I don't like the chances of those on 4.5, because the higher seeds in that group, meaning the ones most likely to leapfrog to the top, have less impressive tie-breaks (assuming chess-results has the calculations right). There may be some hope if Carlsen and Caruana score well, both damaging the competition and meaning that third place will do for the Candidates spot.

Our scores:3922

MichaelBaron
19-10-2019, 02:11 AM
Just like in 1955 when 3 Russians played vs 3 players from Argentina and all played that famous Bb5+ move....Karjakin and Shirov are having identical (and very good ones...quite sharp though) positions vs Yu and Dreev!~

MichaelBaron
19-10-2019, 02:54 AM
Just like in 1955 when 3 Russians played vs 3 players from Argentina and all played that famous Bb5+ move....Karjakin and Shirov are having identical (and very good ones...quite sharp though) positions vs Yu and Dreev!~

https://twitter.com/fionchetta/status/1185232905129398274?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Eprofile%3AChess__News %7Ctwcon%5Etimelinechrome&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fchess-news.ru%2F

Ian Rout
19-10-2019, 10:20 AM
Just like in 1955 when 3 Russians played vs 3 players from Argentina and all played that famous Bb5+ move....Karjakin and Shirov are having identical (and very good ones...quite sharp though) positions vs Yu and Dreev!~Perhaps made it a bit easier for the arbiter to spot when they were sitting on adjacent boards (7 and 8). (Incidentally it wasn't Bb5+, just Bb5).

Getting to the pointy end. Aronian (6) v Anton (6) and Carlsen (5.5) v Caruana (6) tonight.

If Aronian can win with White he'll be well placed, but if it's a draw there could be a number of players equal first with two rounds to go. Carlsen is upfloating meaning that there's a good chance he won't get Aronian next round if that would be another upfloat.

ER
19-10-2019, 08:44 PM
A remarkable win

That's how GM Anton Guijarro, David (2674) demolished super GM Alexander Grischuk (2759) in R8
BTW is a 24 move win considered a miniature?

1. c4 e5 2. g3 Nf6 3. Bg2 Bc5 4. Nc3 c6 5. Nf3 e4 6. Nh4 d5 7. cxd5 cxd5 8. d3
Ng4 9. O-O g5 10. d4 Be7 11. h3 Nxf2 12. Rxf2 gxh4 13. Qb3 hxg3 14. Rf4 Nc6 15.
Qxd5 f5 16. Bxe4 fxe4 17. Qh5+ Kd7 18. Be3 Qg8 19. d5 Nd8 20. Nxe4 Qg6 21. Qe5
Nf7 22. Rxf7 Qxf7 23. Rc1 (23. d6 Bd8 24. Qb5+ Ke6 25. Qc4+) 23... Rf8 24. Bg5

Variation for White on move 23 suggested by Fritz 15

Black resigns 0-1

Kevin Bonham
19-10-2019, 11:10 PM
BTW is a 24 move win considered a miniature?

There doesn't seem to be a formalised definition. Some sources use 20 moves, some 25, some 30.

ER
20-10-2019, 10:10 AM
There doesn't seem to be a formalised definition. Some sources use 20 moves, some 25, some 30.

right, thanks!

Kevin Bonham
20-10-2019, 10:32 AM
Drawfest on the top boards round 9 but Nakamura has won and joined the leaders with two to go.

Caruana (6.5) - Anton (6.5)
Nakamura (6.5) - Aronian (6.5)
Carlsen (6) - Matlakov (6)
Anand (6) - Wang Hao (6)
Karjakin (6) - Alekseenko (6)
Howell (6) - Grischuk (6)
Vitiugov (6) - Rakhmanov (6)
Le Quang Liem (5.5) - Maghsoodloo (6)

MichaelBaron
20-10-2019, 10:59 AM
A remarkable win

That's how GM Anton Guijarro, David (2674) demolished super GM Alexander Grischuk (2759) in R8
BTW is a 24 move win considered a miniature?

1. c4 e5 2. g3 Nf6 3. Bg2 Bc5 4. Nc3 c6 5. Nf3 e4 6. Nh4 d5 7. cxd5 cxd5 8. d3
Ng4 9. O-O g5 10. d4 Be7 11. h3 Nxf2 12. Rxf2 gxh4 13. Qb3 hxg3 14. Rf4 Nc6 15.
Qxd5 f5 16. Bxe4 fxe4 17. Qh5+ Kd7 18. Be3 Qg8 19. d5 Nd8 20. Nxe4 Qg6 21. Qe5
Nf7 22. Rxf7 Qxf7 23. Rc1 (23. d6 Bd8 24. Qb5+ Ke6 25. Qc4+) 23... Rf8 24. Bg5

Variation for White on move 23 suggested by Fritz 15

Black resigns 0-1

And black's position was already resignable several moves prior to when he finally gave up.

Ian Rout
20-10-2019, 03:24 PM
With two rounds remaining:
3926

ER
21-10-2019, 02:57 AM
sad to see Vissy going down that way! :(

Qbert
21-10-2019, 10:48 AM
Going into the last round I have roughly estimated each eligible player's chance of qualifying for the candidates based on their tiebreak score using FIDE rating expected scores to decide the probablity of each result on the top 4 boards (assuming 0.6 for a draw 0.25 white wins and 0.15 black wins as the base)


Player tiebrk chance Diff Exp W D L
Wang 2734.9 57% 1 GM Nakamura, H. (7 2745 GM Caruana, F. (7 2812 -67 0.9 0.16 0.6 0.24
Alekseenko 2715.6 12%
Aronian 2708 5% 2 GM Aronian, L. (7 2758 GM Carlsen, M. (7 2876 -118 1.6 0.09 0.6 0.31
Nakamura 2673.9 9%
Vitiugov 2662.7 12% 3 GM Alekseenko (7 2674 GM Vitiugov, N. (7 2732 -58 0.8 0.17 0.6 0.23
Howell 2656.7 5%
100% 4 GM Wang, Hao (7 2726 GM Howell, D. W. (7 2694 32 -0.4 0.29 0.6 0.11

Ian Rout
21-10-2019, 11:31 AM
Scores with one round remaining below. Kevin is looking good, but remember there is a 3-point bonus if your team includes the Candidates qualifier (which is not necessarily the winner).

On that subject, Wang Hao has a promising position, with the best tie-break, arguably the easiest pairing, and the White pieces - and not being selected by anybody. But all those on 7 have to win in case one of the others does, so there should be a lot of uncompromising play (or a lot of playing chicken).

3927

Desmond
21-10-2019, 12:04 PM
Pretty close, Howell's swiss gambit looking handy for KB. :)

MichaelBaron
21-10-2019, 01:43 PM
Now some surprise qualifiers are possible.
Both Karuana and Carlsen do not need to qualify so suddenly, the likes of Alekseenko and Howell got a chance.
Alekseenko is 22 years old now at his peak rating of 2671
Howell is soon to turn 29 and around 2700!@

Kevin Bonham
22-10-2019, 03:41 AM
Wang Hao (picked by nobody!) has tied Caruana on 8 (ditto) and is in the Candidates!

Alekseenko-Vitiugov, only other game where someone can get to 8, still going with white a pawn up in a knight ending.

Ian Rout
22-10-2019, 10:32 AM
A convincing win to Kevin in the end. Wang Hao was the 3-point player so no bonus points scored.

3931

Kevin Bonham
22-10-2019, 12:33 PM
Except, though I was unaware of it til now, I stuffed up and fielded a category D player as category E (Grandelius), Grandelius is not eligible for category E (E: One player under 2600.) so I should get no points for that pick making road runner the winner. Unlucky because any sub-2600 who scored 4/11 or more would have been sufficient for me to win legitimately thanks to the awesome efforts of my picks Alekseenko and Howell.

The optimum team, not counting tiebreaks, would have been:

A: One player rated under 2900 (that covers everybody).

Caruana 8

B and C: Two players under 2800.

Wang Hao 8 + 3 for Candidate, and any of Aronian, Anton, Alekseenko, Nakamura or Vitiugov (each 7.5) - but if picking Anton or Alekseenko, have to pick the other under D.

D: One player under 2700.

Alekseenko or Anton (7.5)

E: One player under 2600.

Gukesh (6)

F: One non-GM not already selected (any rating).

Sadhwani, Bjerre, Saduakassova (!) all 5.5

G: One "home" player not already selected (any rating or title).

Howell 7

Score 52.5.

Thanks Ian for suggesting and running the exercise, it's been fun and I will try to pay more attention next time!

Desmond
22-10-2019, 01:08 PM
Thanks Ian for suggesting and running the exercise, it's been fun and I will try to pay more attention next time!
Yes thanks Ian!

One thing I would suggest for next time, maybe have a mid season trade - swap one player for another (to be eligible in the same category).

MichaelBaron
22-10-2019, 01:56 PM
Pity that Yi has not qualified - and then we would have 3 Chinese in the candidates!

Ian Rout
22-10-2019, 03:34 PM
Except, though I was unaware of it til now, I stuffed up and fielded a category D player as category E (Grandelius), Grandelius is not eligible for category E (E: One player under 2600.) so I should get no points for that pick making road runner the winner. Hmm yes, I meant to check for legality but it slipped my mind.

Anyway, good performance by Wang Hao. According to chess-results it's a PR of 2900, which won't be quite accurate as it will be based on average rating but should be in the area.