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Kevin Bonham
12-05-2015, 02:24 AM
Starts Thursday. Final GP for the cycle. All those playing are in with some sort of mathematical chance to finish in the top two and qualify for the next Candidates Matches.

Games start 8:00 pm AEST (3:00 local) with rest days after rounds 4 and 7.

Tomashevsky is currently leading Caruana and Nakamura and it will be especially interesting to see if he can perform strongly enough to at least hold second place.

MichaelBaron
13-05-2015, 01:00 AM
Starts Thursday. Final GP for the cycle. All those playing are in with some sort of mathematical chance to finish in the top two and qualify for the next Candidates Matches.

Games start 8:00 pm AEST (3:00 local) with rest days after rounds 4 and 7.

Tomashevsky is currently leading Caruana and Nakamura and it will be especially interesting to see if he can perform strongly enough to at least hold second place.

small correction: May, not March.
As for expected results, both Naka and Caruana will be much more fun to see in the candidates matches than Tomashevsky....but if he earns it - he earns it

Desmond
14-05-2015, 09:21 PM
live games (http://khantymansiysk2015.fide.com/live-games/)

Kevin Bonham
15-05-2015, 12:15 AM
Tomashevksy beats Jobava with black in round 1.

Jakovenko, who is fourth in the GP, is pawn up vs Giri in a rook ending but hard to see it being won.

Kevin Bonham
15-05-2015, 12:30 AM
As for expected results, both Naka and Caruana will be much more fun to see in the candidates matches than Tomashevsky....but if he earns it - he earns it

Caruana at least should qualify anyway if his form remains OK - he is currently leading the race for the two positions by average rating. Nakamura is currently fourth behind Topalov and Grischuk but will overtake them if he outrates them by seven points on average for the rest of the year.

Kevin Bonham
15-05-2015, 01:18 AM
Well Jakovenko did win that and is co-leader with Tomashevsky.

That actually puts Jakovenko in a live qualifying position but it probably won't last!

Kevin Bonham
16-05-2015, 02:22 AM
Win for Dominguez over Tomashevsky.

Looks like Tomashevsky - Grishuk is a draw. Should that be the case Tomashevsky remains the live GP leader (assuming all games left in the tournament are draws) from Caruana, Nakamura, Dominguez, with Gelfand and Jakovenko tied for fifth.

Agent Smith
16-05-2015, 09:53 AM
Grischuk was so much toast. Move 39. Qxd6
He'll never have a bigger get-off than that.

[Event "KM FIDE GP 2015"]
[Site "Khanty-Mansiysk RUS"]
[Date "2015.05.15"]
[Round "2"]
[White "Tomashevsky, E."]
[Black "Grischuk, A."]
[Result "1/2-1/2"]
[WhiteElo "2749"]
[BlackElo "2780"]
[ECO "E90"]
[EventDate "2015.05.13"]
[PlyCount "147"]

1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 g6 3. Nc3 Bg7 4. e4 d6 5. Nf3 O-O 6. h3 e5 7. d5 Nh5 8. g3 Qe7 9. Nh2 Na6 10. Be3 Nc5 11. h4 a5 12. Be2 Nf6 13. Qc2 c6 14. g4 Na6 15. g5 Ne8 16. h5 Nb4 17. Qd2 cxd5 18. cxd5 Bd7 19. O-O-O f5 20. Kb1 b5 21. hxg6 hxg6 22. f3 Nc7 23. Rc1 Nba6 24. Bd3 b4 25. Ne2 Nb5 26. Rc6 Rfb8 27. Rhc1 f4 28. Bf2 Bf8 29. Ng4 Qxg5 30. Rh1 Qe7 31. Bxb5 Rxb5 32. Nxf4 Bxg4
( 32. ... exf4 33. Bd4 Bg7 34. Nh6+ Kf8 35. Qxf4+ Ke8 36. Bxg7 Qxg7 37. Qxd6 )
33. Nxg6 Qf6 34. Nxf8 Rxf8 35. Rg1 Qxf3 36. Qg5+ Kf7 37. Rxg4 Ke8 38. Qg6+ Qf7 39. Qxf7+
( 39. Qxd6 )
39. ... Rxf7 40. Be3
( 40. Rg8+ Kd7 41. Rxa6 )
40. ... Nc5
( 40. ... Rf1+ 41. Rc1
( 41. Kc2 b3+ 42. Kc3
( 42. axb3 Nb4+ 43. Kc3 Nxc6 )
42. ... bxa2 43. Rxa6 )
41. ... Rxc1+ 42. Kxc1 )
41. Rg8+ Kd7 42. Ra8 Rb7 43. Bxc5 dxc5 44. Rxc5
( 44. b3 )
44. ... Rf1+ 45. Rc1 Rxc1+ 46. Kxc1 b3 47. a3 Rc7+ 48. Kd2 Rc2+ 49. Kd3 Rxb2 50. Rxa5 Rh2 51. Rb5 Rh3+ 52. Kd2 Kd6 53. a4 Rh2+ 54. Kc3 Rh3+ 55. Kd2 Rh2+ 56. Kc3 Rh3+ 57. Kc4 Re3 58. Rb6+ Kc7 59. Rxb3 Rxe4+ 60. Kc5 Rxa4 61. d6+ Kd7 62. Rb7+ Ke6 63. Re7+ Kf5 64. d7 Rd4 65. Kc6 e4 66. Re8 Kf4 67. d8=Q Rxd8 68. Rxd8 e3 69. Kd5 e2 70. Re8 Kf3 71. Kd4 Kf2 72. Kd3 e1=Q 73. Rxe1 Kxe1 74. Kd4 1/2-1/2

Kevin Bonham
16-05-2015, 11:41 AM
The time control is 40/120+20/60+15 with the 30 second increment from move 61. I wasn't watching at the time but believe Tomashevsky was in time trouble hence the otherwise unbelievable missed wins.

Kevin Bonham
17-05-2015, 12:19 AM
Again a lot of draws. Caruana gave Tomashevsky a hiding (below) and replaces him in the equal lead. However Tomashevsky is still live second in the GP standings whatever happens in the one round 3 game still in progress (Jakovenko - Svidler with Svidler a pawn up in a rook ending).

1. d4 d5 2. c4 c6 3. Nf3 Nf6 4. Nc3 a6 5. a4 e6 6. Bf4 a5 7. e3 Be7 8. g4
Na6 9. g5 Nd7 10. h4 Nb4 11. Be2 b6 12. h5 Bb7 13. cxd5 exd5 14. Qd2 f5 15.
gxf6 Bxf6 16. h6 g6 17. e4 dxe4 18. Nxe4 O-O 19. O-O-O Nd5 20. Bg3 Ba6 21.
Bxa6 Rxa6 22. Rhe1 Ra8 23. Kb1 Be7 24. Qd3 Rf5 25. Ne5 Qc8 26. Nc3 Nxc3+
27. Qxc3 Nxe5 28. Qb3+ Rf7 29. dxe5 Qf5+ 30. Ka2 Bb4 31. e6 Re7 32. Bh4
Ree8 33. e7+ Qf7 34. Re6 b5 35. Rd8 bxa4 36. Qe3 Bxe7 37. Rxa8 Rxa8 38.
Bxe7 Re8 39. Ka1 a3 40. bxa3 Qf5 41. Qc3 1-0

MichaelBaron
17-05-2015, 01:45 AM
Interesting endgame struggle going on right now between Svidler and Yakovenko

Kevin Bonham
18-05-2015, 02:12 AM
Only one decisive result in round 4 with Caruana beating Vachier-Lagrave with black.

Tomashevsky let another one go with Jakovenko escaping. Despite this Tomashevsky is still in a live qualifying position.

MichaelBaron
18-05-2015, 12:31 PM
Only one decisive result in round 4 with Caruana beating Vachier-Lagrave with black.

Tomashevsky let another one go with Jakovenko escaping. Despite this Tomashevsky is still in a live qualifying position.

Looks like Karuana will definitely qualify. As for the 2nd spot, the only person who can realistically displace Tomashevsky is Karuana

Kevin Bonham
20-05-2015, 12:12 PM
Disaster for Tomashevsky as the board eventually opens for the two bishops and he loses to Karjakin in 99 moves.

Despite this if the GP finishes now (which I am sure Tomashevsky wishes it would) he would still qualify (live standings: Caruana 400 Tomashevsky 282 Nakamura 272 Karjakin 270).

Kevin Bonham
21-05-2015, 12:45 PM
Field spreading out after round 6 but despite being on -1 Tomashevsky clings to his live-qualifier position. Current live standings Caruana 400 Tomashevsky 292 Karjakin 282 Nakamura 277.

Grischuk missed a really cool fortress draw - it would have been KB vs KRP with opposing pawn on the seventh! - against Caruana (see http://en.chessbase.com/post/khanty-rd6-mistakes-in-marathon-round)

Nakamura has had six draws in a row! Will he wake up in time?

Agent Smith
21-05-2015, 08:10 PM
Grischuk missed a really cool fortress draw - it would have been KB vs KRP with opposing pawn on the seventh! - against Caruana (see http://en.chessbase.com/post/khanty-rd6-mistakes-in-marathon-round)
Hard to see... As long as white King covers g2, which it can, Black cant do anything
My engines just can't see it either with no syzygy tablebases.
8/B7/8/8/2r5/8/7p/5K1k w - - 0 76

MichaelBaron
22-05-2015, 03:17 AM
Tomashevsky lost again...and is now coming 4th. Karjakin overtook him as well

Agent Smith
22-05-2015, 08:33 AM
1: Caruana, Fabiano 2803 23 ITA 5.0 / 7 X = . = . = . . = 1 1 1 2900 +8 (+3 -0 =4)
2: Dominguez Perez, Leinier 2734 32 CUB 4.5 / 7 = X = 1 = = 1 = . . . . 2865 +13 (+2 -0 =5)
3: Karjakin, Sergey 2753 25 RUS 4.5 / 7 . = X = = . . = = . 1 1 2851 +9 (+2 -0 =5)
4: Svidler, Peter 2734 39 RUS 4.0 / 7 = 0 = X = . 1 1 . = . . 2819 +8 (+2 -1 =4)
5: Nakamura, Hikaru 2799 28 USA 4.0 / 7 . = = = X = . = . . = 1 2799 +0 (+1 -0 =6)
6: Gelfand, Boris 2744 47 ISR 3.5 / 7 = = . . = X . = = = . = 2763 +2 (+0 -0 =7)
7: Jakovenko, Dmitry 2738 32 RUS 3.5 / 7 . 0 . 0 . . X 1 = = = 1 2746 +1 (+2 -2 =3)
8: Giri, Anish 2776 21 NED 3.0 / 7 . = = 0 = = 0 X . . 1 . 2700 -8 (+1 -2 =4)
9: Jobava, Baadur 2699 32 GEO 3.0 / 7 = . = . . = = . X = 0 = 2710 +1 (+0 -1 =6)
10: Grischuk, Alexander 2780 32 RUS 3.0 / 7 0 . . = . = = . = X = = 2695 -8 (+0 -1 =6)
11: Tomashevsky, Evgeny 2749 28 RUS 2.5 / 7 0 . 0 . = . = 0 1 = X . 2662 -8 (+1 -3 =3)
12: Vachier-Lagrave, Maxime 2754 25 FRA 1.5 / 7 0 . 0 . 0 = 0 . = = . X 2529 -20 (+0 -4 =3)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
42 games: +9 -5 =28

Kevin Bonham
22-05-2015, 11:27 AM
Tomashevsky lost again...and is now coming 4th. Karjakin overtook him as well

Yes, I have Nakamura 292 Karjakin 282 Tomashevsky 272 as live scores.

Vachier-Lagrave is now totally out of mathematical contention for a qualifying place (not surprisingly given his score.)

Capablanca-Fan
22-05-2015, 03:33 PM
Hard to see... As long as white King covers g2, which it can, Black cant do anything
My engines just can't see it either with no syzygy tablebases.
8/B7/8/8/2r5/8/7p/5K1k w - - 0 76

As long as White is to play and plays 1.Kf2, so 1... Rf4+ 2. Kg3. Black to move wins by simply 1... Rf4+ 2. Bf2 Rf(any) and white must move his K allowing 3... Kg2.

pax
22-05-2015, 04:42 PM
Yes, I have Nakamura 292 Caruana 282 Tomashevsky 272 as live scores.

Vachier-Lagrave is now totally out of mathematical contention for a qualifying place (not surprisingly given his score.)

I assume you mean Karjakin 282? Caruana is 400 and cruising.

Kevin Bonham
22-05-2015, 11:27 PM
I assume you mean Karjakin 282? Caruana is 400 and cruising.

Yep. Similarly in #13 I assume the second "Karuana" is actually Nakamura.

MichaelBaron
23-05-2015, 11:35 AM
3d place is also going to be sufficient to qualify for the candidates tournament as Karuana is likely to qualify by rating anyway. If Nakamura's rating keeps going up or one of the GP qualifiers also qualify via the world cup, then even the 4th place winner will get lucky

Kevin Bonham
23-05-2015, 01:09 PM
3d place is also going to be sufficient to qualify for the candidates tournament as Karuana is likely to qualify by rating anyway. If Nakamura's rating keeps going up or one of the GP qualifiers also qualify via the world cup, then even the 4th place winner will get lucky

This isn't how it works according to these regulations (https://www.fide.com/FIDE/handbook/regscandidates2016.pdf). The order of priority is:

1. World Championship match loser (Anand)
2. World Cup 1st and 2nd
3. Grand Prix 1st and 2nd
4. Rating 1st and 2nd
5. Organiser nominee

At each of levels 2-4 if the player has already qualified by one of the higher methods, then it cascades down to the next player at that level. So if Caruana qualifies from the Grand Prix, then he is ignored in deciding who qualifies by rating.

So the only way 3rd in the Grand Prix can qualify by being 3rd in the Grand Prix is if either 1st or 2nd in the Grand Prix finish 1st or 2nd in the World Cup (I didn't know that!) And the only way 4th in the Grand Prix can qualify as a result of that is if 1st and 2nd in the Grand Prix finish 1st and 2nd in the World Cup.

Could be that whoever qualifies from the Grand Prix will skip the World Cup.

Kevin Bonham
24-05-2015, 01:22 AM
Gelfand 1-0 Svidler
Tomashevsky draw Dominguez
Vachier-Lagrave draw Giri
Jobava 0-1 Nakamura
Grischuk 1-0 Karjakin
Caruana 0-1 Jakovenko

New live scores I have Caruana 370 Nakamura 347 Tomashevsky 277 Gelfand and Jakovenko 250 Karjakin 237 etc

Jobava is now also out of mathematical contention for the top two places. He needs at worst equal first with one other in order to beat Tomashevsky, even if Tomashevsky comes outright last. But because of the number of remaining games where both players are on 5 or 4.5, either one of those players will exceed 6 or at least two of them will reach 6.

Dominguez might be out of mathematical contention for the top two places now as well. Tomashevsky finishes ahead of him no matter what and he'd need to win outright while having Caruana score at most 25 and Nakamura at most 48; I'm not sure that this can still be done.

MichaelBaron
24-05-2015, 12:04 PM
Gelfand 1-0 Svidler
Tomashevsky draw Dominguez
Vachier-Lagrave draw Giri
Jobava 0-1 Nakamura
Grischuk 1-0 Karjakin
Caruana 0-1 Jakovenko

New live scores I have Caruana 370 Nakamura 347 Tomashevsky 277 Gelfand and Jakovenko 250 Karjakin 237 etc

Jobava is now also out of mathematical contention for the top two places. He needs at worst equal first with one other in order to beat Tomashevsky, even if Tomashevsky comes outright last. But because of the number of remaining games where both players are on 5 or 4.5, either one of those players will exceed 6 or at least two of them will reach 6.

Dominguez might be out of mathematical contention for the top two places now as well. Tomashevsky finishes ahead of him no matter what and he'd need to win outright while having Caruana score at most 25 and Nakamura at most 48; I'm not sure that this can still be done.
I think if Tomashevsky finishes with 3 draws, it will probably be enough to qualify

Kevin Bonham
25-05-2015, 05:51 AM
Tomashevsky beat Svidler but he's still not quite doing it at the moment. Current live GP scores are Caruana 370 Nakamura 347 Tomashevsky 287 Gelfand and Jakovenko 250 etc.

Both Svidler and Dominguez can no longer make the top two qualifying spots (though Dominguez can still win this particular event). Not sure if Giri and Grischuk have any mathematical chances left either.

Gelfand stalemate-swindled Jakovenko from a lost position four pawns down! :

1.e4 c5 2.Nf3 d6 3.d4 cxd4 4.Nxd4 Nf6 5.Nc3 a6 6.h3 e5 7.Nde2 h5 8.g3 b5 9.Nd5 Nbd7 10.Bg5 Bb7 11.Nec3 Rc8 12.Bg2 Be7 13.Nxe7 Qxe7 14.0-0 Qe6 15.Re1 b4 16.Nd5 Bxd5 17.exd5 Qf5 18.Bd2 Rxc2 19.Rc1 Rxc1 20.Qxc1 Nc5 21.Bxb4 Nd3 22.Qc6+ Qd7 23.Qa8+ Qd8 24.Qc6+ Nd7 25.Re4 f5 26.Rc4 e4 27.Qxa6 Nxb4 28.Qxd6 Nd3 29.Qe6+ Kf8 30.Qxf5+ Kg8 31.Qe6+ Kf8 32.Qd6+ Kg8 33.Qe6+ Kf8 34.Qxe4 N3e5 35.Qf5+ Kg8 36.d6 Rh6 37.Re4 h4 38.Rxh4 Rxh4 39.gxh4 Qxh4 40.Bd5+ Kh8 41.Kh1 Qh6 42.f4 g6 43.Qe6 Qf8 44.Bb3 g5 45.f5 Nd3 46.Qxd7 Qa8+ 47.Kg1 Nf4 48.Kf2 g4 49.hxg4 Qg2+ 50.Ke3 Nd5+ 51.Kd4 Qf2+ 52.Kxd5 Qd4+ 53.Kxd4 draw

Kevin Bonham
26-05-2015, 02:17 AM
Wins for Jakovenko vs Karjakin and Jobava vs Dominguez.

Now Jakovenko has moved into 3rd on the live GP standings.

Final round draw
Karjakin - Gelfand
Nakamura - Jakovenko
Giri - Caruana
Dominguez - Grischuk
Svidler - Jobava
Tomashevsky - Vachier-Lagrave

By my count five are still in mathematical contention for qualifying spots going into the last round: Caruana, Nakamura, Jakovenko, Tomashevsky, Gelfand.

But the chances for the last two are very remote. For instance Gelfand makes it on tiebreak if he wins, Giri beats Caruana, and Nakamura and Jakovenko draw.
Tomashevksy makes it if he wins, Nakamura beats Jakovenko, Giri beats Caruana and Gelfand beats Karjakin.
There may be some other scenarios in which these two might make it.
No-one is guaranteed to qualify yet.

Last round starts an hour earlier. 7pm AEST.

Kevin Bonham
26-05-2015, 12:07 PM
Chessbase are saying Jakovenko has to win against Nakamura; I don't think this is necessarily correct. By my figures if Nakamura and Jakovenko draw, Gelfand doesn't beat Karjakin, Dominguez doesn't beat Grischuk and Giri beats Caruana, then Nakamura and Jakovenko both qualify.

Kevin Bonham
26-05-2015, 10:00 PM
Nakamura-Jakovenko draw. Dominguez-Grischuk also draw.

Nakamura has qualified.

Kevin Bonham
26-05-2015, 10:27 PM
Giri-Caruana draw

Caruana, Nakamura and Jakovenko win this event. Gelfand can join them if he wins.

Caruana wins the GP and qualifies for the Candidates with Nakamura.

Kevin Bonham
27-05-2015, 02:14 AM
Svidler beat Jobava. The rest were drawn. Tomashevsky's game was drawn in 115 moves, he gets a lot of epics.

So Caruana and Nakamura qualify for the Candidates. Jakovenko will qualify if either Caruana or Nakamura make the top two in the World Cup and Tomashevsky will qualify if they are the top two. World Cup is in Sept-Oct and there are two more qualifiers by rating at the end of the year.