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View Full Version : Poll: Who will win the 2011 World Cup?



Max Illingworth
29-08-2011, 03:25 AM
Who do you think will win the 2011 FIDE World Cup this year? It's very difficult to predict with such a tough field, but that just adds to the fun. ;)

Voting closes in one week.

Capablanca-Fan
29-08-2011, 03:35 AM
What does it mean without Anand, Kramnik or Carlsen?

Kevin Bonham
29-08-2011, 03:42 AM
What does it mean without Anand, Kramnik or Carlsen?

Also missing Aronian, Topalov and Nakamura. Still a prestigious event in its own right given the field, but a bit of a lottery.

It means three places in the eight-player Candidates Matches to challenge the winner of Anand-Gelfand apparently. Which, as I mentioned on another thread means that at most five of the above can be among the nine players who make it into the Candidates/WC cycle, since Gelfand and three from this thing will be four of the nine.

Kevin Bonham
29-08-2011, 04:13 AM
Rationally the form guide for these things favours Ponomariov; his record in these knockouts is exceptional.

I have no explanation for my tip except a certain dark-horse aura I always associate with the guy. Now that I have pointed the finger of doom (bear in mind that my tipping record here is rather bad) he will be knocked out in round two. :lol:

Max Illingworth
29-08-2011, 05:42 AM
Incidentally the Figjam blog (http://figjamchess.blogspot.com/) has some tippings by Moulthun, Junta, Andrew and Fedja.

that Caesar guy
29-08-2011, 11:03 AM
It's just pot luck this event...I picked a number, any number, and Jakovenko corresponded. No reason why I think he will win, though :P

Garrett
29-08-2011, 02:01 PM
I voted for Chucky because he is my age..... ha haha

Rincewind
29-08-2011, 02:05 PM
is chesslover an option?

Max Illingworth
29-08-2011, 08:11 PM
I voted for Grischuk because of his results in the Candidates Matches, and there isn't Gelfand here to stop him. ;)

Sir Cromulent Sparkles
29-08-2011, 09:30 PM
im a shakira booster simply because her hips dont lie !!!! :D

Adamski
29-08-2011, 11:45 PM
Karjakin has done rather well lately (see NIC) and he is first on the list so why not?
I would be really pleased if Shirov bounced back from recent poor results and won here. But somehow I doubt he could go all the way.

Max Illingworth
30-08-2011, 12:36 AM
Karjakin has done rather well lately (see NIC) and he is first on the list so why not?
I would be really pleased if Shirov bounced back from recent poor results and won here. But somehow I doubt he could go all the way.

The last time the top seed won the World Cup/FIDE World Championship was in 2000 when Anand beat Shirov in the final. So a Karjakin way is unlikely but no less unlikely than any other result. I tend to agree with Kevin that it is a bit of a lottery since I don't think two game classical matches are sufficient to determine the stronger player, especially as the tournament progresses.

Kevin Bonham
30-08-2011, 12:55 AM
The last time the top seed won the World Cup/FIDE World Championship was in 2000 when Anand beat Shirov in the final.

Wasn't Gelfand in 2009 the equal highest rated player who competed?

Max Illingworth
30-08-2011, 12:57 AM
Wasn't Gelfand in 2009 the equal highest rated player who competed?

Of course, you are right. I should have checked the list of participants before making my claim.

Kevin Bonham
30-08-2011, 01:38 AM
Of those who have votes so far Leko has been eliminated in the first round while all the others have advanced in regulation time. (Vachier-Lagrave only just after winning a very tricky ending with two knights and two pawns against two knights and one.)

Igor_Goldenberg
30-08-2011, 08:55 AM
I have no explanation for my tip except a certain dark-horse aura I always associate with the guy. Now that I have pointed the finger of doom (bear in mind that my tipping record here is rather bad) he will be knocked out in round two. :lol:
His memory problem won't let him win:D

Garvinator
30-08-2011, 04:50 PM
Seems strange that the poll should close so late. Perhaps it should be closed after the end of the first round, which is tonight.

Max Illingworth
30-08-2011, 05:30 PM
Seems strange that the poll should close so late. Perhaps it should be closed after the end of the first round, which is tonight.

I wanted to give members enough time to vote, but you have a point. I don't know how to edit the poll, if it is possible.

Garvinator
30-08-2011, 05:37 PM
I wanted to give members enough time to vote, but you have a point. I don't know how to edit the poll, if it is possible.
The admins can change a poll date. You just need to ask them and specify what date and time you want it to close now.

Max Illingworth
30-08-2011, 06:01 PM
The admins can change a poll date. You just need to ask them and specify what date and time you want it to close now.

I see that the admins have changed the date already - thanks! :)

Garrett
30-08-2011, 06:28 PM
better give Jono a chance to reconsider !

Kevin Bonham
30-08-2011, 06:56 PM
I assumed the Leko vote was actually a joke after his loss in game one! When I saw it was by Jono I changed this view.

I've changed the poll to expire early Thursday morning so people can take game 1 of round 2 into account if they really like. Early tomorrow morning seemed like not quite enough notice for bringing forward a poll change although I could have done that too.

To clarify, once a poll is set we can only change the number of whole days until it ends. As far as I can tell we cannot change the time of day except by deleting it and putting in a new one.

Max Illingworth
01-09-2011, 07:02 AM
Here are my tippings for the final eight:

Final 8: Karjakin, Svidler, Ponomariov, Adams, Ivanchuk, Radjabov, Moiseenko, Grischuk
Final 4: Karjakin (beats Svidler), Ponomariov (beats Adams), Radjabov (beats Ivanchuk), Grischuk (beats Moiseenko)
Final 2: Karjakin (beats Ponomariov), Grischuk (beats Radjabov)
Finals: 1st Grischuk, 2nd Karjakin, 3rd Ponomariov 4th Radjabov

(Post 1000)

Max Illingworth
03-09-2011, 06:28 AM
Here are my tippings for the final eight:

Final 8: Karjakin, Svidler, Ponomariov, Adams, Ivanchuk, Radjabov, Moiseenko, Grischuk
Final 4: Karjakin (beats Svidler), Ponomariov (beats Adams), Radjabov (beats Ivanchuk), Grischuk (beats Moiseenko)
Final 2: Karjakin (beats Ponomariov), Grischuk (beats Radjabov)
Finals: 1st Grischuk, 2nd Karjakin, 3rd Ponomariov 4th Radjabov

(Post 1000)

My final 8 tipping is already wrong since Adams lost in the tiebreaks to Nielsen. The other 7 advanced to Round 3.

that Caesar guy
04-09-2011, 11:47 PM
All those Karjakin and Morozevich voters are, in the words of Grant Szuveges, GONE!

Max Illingworth
05-09-2011, 03:07 AM
More could be 'gone' by the tiebreaks tomorrow :whistle:

However it's almost impossible to correctly predict the winner of this sort of tournament. Two (Moiseenko-Navara was a draw, see Kevin's post in the other thread) of the players I picked for the final eight are already out.

Kevin Bonham
06-09-2011, 12:30 AM
Only the following tips are still intact:

Ivanchuk (Garrett)
Ponomariov (Garvinator)
Grischuk (Max, Qbert)
Jakovenko (Little Jimmy)

Max Illingworth
06-09-2011, 05:42 AM
Since Grischuk is facing his good friend Potkin next round, I think the two classical games will be quick draws. Hopefully I am proven wrong.

Kevin Bonham
06-09-2011, 04:24 PM
His memory problem won't let him win:D

You are correct; Nepo forgot how to draw a standard rook ending yesterday leading to him losing the first game.

Garvinator
07-09-2011, 06:09 AM
Since Grischuk is facing his good friend Potkin next round, I think the two classical games will be quick draws. Hopefully I am proven wrong.
Wrong!

Alexander Grischuk (Russia) abandoned his favorite Gruenfeld Defense in favor of the King's Indian against his friend and compatriot Vladimir Potkin. However, Potkin's reputation of a great opening expert got another confirmation today: White obtained a big advantage. Grischuk defended stubbornly, but made a few inaccuracies, and Potkin won in the endgame with a spectacular pawn break.

Max Illingworth
07-09-2011, 06:48 AM
Wrong!

Alexander Grischuk (Russia) abandoned his favorite Gruenfeld Defense in favor of the King's Indian against his friend and compatriot Vladimir Potkin. However, Potkin's reputation of a great opening expert got another confirmation today: White obtained a big advantage. Grischuk defended stubbornly, but made a few inaccuracies, and Potkin won in the endgame with a spectacular pawn break.

Now I am simultaneously happy that it was a really nice game and unhappy that I didn't vote for 'other'. :lol:

Kevin Bonham
07-09-2011, 12:07 PM
A notable thing about that game is that Grischuk is normally ridiculously good in time trouble but in this case folded as a result of it.

Max Illingworth
08-09-2011, 11:58 PM
Here are my tippings for the final eight:

Final 8: Karjakin, Svidler, Ponomariov, Adams, Ivanchuk, Radjabov, Moiseenko, Grischuk
Final 4: Karjakin (beats Svidler), Ponomariov (beats Adams), Radjabov (beats Ivanchuk), Grischuk (beats Moiseenko)
Final 2: Karjakin (beats Ponomariov), Grischuk (beats Radjabov)
Finals: 1st Grischuk, 2nd Karjakin, 3rd Ponomariov 4th Radjabov

(Post 1000)

I got five of the final eight correct: Svidler, Ponomariov, Ivanchuk, Radjabov and Grischuk. The other three are Navara, Polgar and Gashimov. Meaning that Fedja correctly predicted the entire final eight. :clap:

Kevin Bonham
09-09-2011, 12:07 AM
Meaning that Fedja correctly predicted the entire final eight. :clap:

It is astonishing that anyone could do that in such a "random" tournament. [EDIT: or not, see below]

Garvinator
09-09-2011, 12:12 AM
Both my poll tip and also my sentimental favourite are still alive.

Kevin Bonham
11-09-2011, 09:46 PM
Ivanchuk (Garrett)
Ponomariov (Garvinator)
Grischuk (Max, Qbert)

all still going

...and nobody tipped the fourth semi-finalist Svidler

Kevin Bonham
14-09-2011, 10:40 PM
Max and Qbert are at least assured of being the closest now.

Max Illingworth
15-09-2011, 03:01 AM
Oh yeah :D :P

Kevin Bonham
19-09-2011, 10:53 PM
It is astonishing that anyone could do that in such a "random" tournament.

Curiously that post now shows the top 4 and final results correctly but I thought after the final eight was formed it was showing something different. Is there some practical joking going on there?

Anyway, no-one here tipped the winner.

Max Illingworth
20-09-2011, 12:04 AM
Curiously that post now shows the top 4 and final results correctly but I thought after the final eight was formed it was showing something different. Is there some practical joking going on there?

Anyway, no-one here tipped the winner.

I noticed the same thing just a couple of days ago, and indeed Fedja edited his post several times so that his predictions matched the final results.

Kevin Bonham
20-09-2011, 12:13 AM
I noticed the same thing just a couple of days ago, and indeed Fedja edited his post several times so that his predictions matched the final results.

Hmmm, I'm not sure there's a big enough punishment for that sort of behaviour. Should I apply for a CM title from the Zonal for him and pay for it myself? :P :P :P

(Note: I will definitely not be doing this.)