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Kevin Bonham
16-10-2012, 12:58 PM
Some new Essential Report attribute polling showed Abbott badly trailing Gillard on:

* has the right temperament to be Prime Minister (42-58, among female voters 39-62)

* is too influenced by their religious beliefs (40-16. Males are more likely to think this about both leaders, which in Abbott's case could be because more males are atheists, but in Gillard's case is a bit tricky to try to unravel)

* Is someone that understands the challenges facing Australian women (39-62. Among women 36-63)

*Has difficulty controlling their aggression (25-44. Among women 22-44. Gillard's rating on this one rose 8 points in the portion of the sample after her misogyny speech, which made relatively little difference to other indicators.)

Of the nine attributes measured the only one Abbott led on was "serves my interests as Prime Minister" and that only narrowly and only among male voters. Though I think the wording of that question is problematic and might deflate Abbott's result.

Igor_Goldenberg
16-10-2012, 02:44 PM
I've seen plenty of shit stirring prats in my time. The gleem in their eye is unmistakeable, laugh.
Watched Gillard's speech again. Spot on observation!

pax
16-10-2012, 10:17 PM
Watched Gillard's speech again. Spot on observation!

Are you talking about the rictus on Abbott's face?

Igor_Goldenberg
17-10-2012, 10:06 AM
Are you talking about the rictus on Abbott's face?
No, the gleem in gillard's eye stevenaus mentioned.
Rictus is an understandable reaction when you hear a complete rubbish and blatant lies, even though I didn't pay much attention to Abbott's reaction.

Rincewind
17-10-2012, 10:09 AM
No, the gleem in gillard's eye stevenaus mentioned.

:lol:

pax
19-10-2012, 12:23 AM
Rictus is an understandable reaction when you hear a complete rubbish and blatant lies, even though I didn't pay much attention to Abbott's reaction.

Which lie specifically?

Was it the one where Abbott questions whether men having more power than women is a bad thing? Or where he wonders whether men are more phisiologically adapted to giving commands than women? Perhaps the one where he questions whether the underrepresentation of women in society is a bad things? Or where he calls abortion the "easy way out"? Maybe it was the flippant comment about housewives doing the ironing?

Pray tell, Igor.

Kevin Bonham
25-10-2012, 10:40 PM
The deluxe version of an exploration that started with the stuff I posted on 2 October. Very long with lots of graphs.

The Abbott Factor: Opposition Leader Ratings And Party Standing (http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2012/10/the-abbott-factor-opposition-leader.html)


1. The popularity of federal Opposition Leaders has been argued to be irrelevant because it does not seem to have a relationship to two-party polling in data since 1986.

2. However that appearance is misleading because (i) new Opposition Leaders taking over in weak party positions tend to have good personal ratings (ii) the patterns during Tony Abbott's tenure have been different to those before he was installed.

3. Excluding Abbott, there is a relationship between the ratings of established Opposition Leaders about whom the voters have clear views, and the Opposition's polling.

4. Although this relationship is gentle and usually drowned out by noise, it is capable of changing the result of a reasonably close election.

5. During Abbott's tenure, the relationship has reversed - the worse his ratings, the bigger the Opposition's lead, and this relationship has been strong until recently. However, it is probably mainly the Government, not Abbott, driving this pattern.

6. The Opposition's lead appears to now be shrinking without Abbott's popularity greatly improving.

7. If that trend continues and the next election is close, Abbott's unpopularity could well cause the Coalition to lose.

8. Consistent with the above, no lastingly unpopular Opposition Leader has led their party to a federal election victory in Australia since 1950.

[..]


The damage inflicted on the normal relationship between 2PP and Opposition Leader netsat by the Abbott tenure has been immense. For instance, the median Opposition Leader netsat for a pre-Abbott Newspoll with an Opposition 2PP of 54 or greater was +16.5. The Abbott tenure has destroyed that joint all the way to -1, which is little different from the long term median netsat for Opposition Leaders irrespective of 2PP.

Abbott also messes up the head of the uncommitted-vs-netsat snake (python or cobra? hmmm...) by leading on 2PP when it says he should be well behind. And the familiarity-breeds-contempt relationship is so strong in Abbott's case that for every voter who makes up their mind about him, his netsat goes down by a staggering 2.76 points (36% of variation explained by this alone!), leading him to record netsats on average 12 points lower than normal for such a well-known Opposition Leader. (To be fair, if only for a sentence, much of this may just reflect a general disgust with the state of politics or even be led by disapproval of Gillard and Labor.)

Kevin Bonham
29-10-2012, 12:00 AM
Another 50-50 Newspoll two polls after the one lots of silly people insisted was a rogue.

Update here:

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2012/10/newspoll-gives-more-evidence-that.html


Furthermore, it's widely accepted that Labor's collapse going into the 2010 election was down in part to the dangers of poll-driven government (ie governing, and even removing the leader, based on short-term impacts on party standing.) What is not so widely accepted is that during this term Labor, whether through strategic intention, haplessness, a Green gun to the head or sheer lack of a viable alternative, has not usually pursued such a path on policy, tactics or leadership. It is the Coalition that has displayed poll-driven politics on all these scores throughout this term, continually taking an attitude that if they are up 56-44 then all is right with the world.

Kevin Bonham
07-11-2012, 10:53 PM
A pollbludger poster was talking about being beaten by their chess computer routinely when they used to be 50-50 against it. I wrote:


Some of the more advanced chess programs actually have learning abilities so that if you beat them or nearly beat them in a particular opening line they will learn to avoid that line in future.

Another poster wrote:


Oh, so more advanced then abbots programming

Kevin Bonham
09-11-2012, 08:49 PM
Another good example of our man being so determined to stay "on message" about the carbon tax that he comes across as a fool in so doing - and this time on a commercial channel too!

http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/News/tabid/94/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/8966/Interview-with-Lisa-Wilkinson-Today-Nine-Nerwork.aspx

Partial video of this effort (skip to 0:16 for start) can be found here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RUN1PIRaHU&feature=plcp

Kevin Bonham
12-11-2012, 11:52 PM
Our man outdoes himself again! He recorded his worst ever ratings in the Essential Report today and followed it up with this in Newspoll:

27% Approve, 63% Disapprove (netsat -36)

His worst netsat by 5 points
His worst approval rating
His worst disapproval rating

The worst netsat for an Opposition Leader since Crean
The worst disapproval score for an Opposition Leader since Downer

Any journo who does not now call Abbott "embattled" is a wimp.

Kevin Bonham
13-11-2012, 12:30 PM
I have some research up on my site about past use of the term "embattled" to describe struggling leaders, and I believe that Abbott is being given a free pass by the media in this regard, despite Gillard having copped more than a year of the same term.

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/embattled-abbott-thirty-six-below-wave.html

Repeat after me, press gallery: " embattled Opposition Leader Tony Abbott ".

Sigh. I will have to stop it soon or I will end up sounding like Axiom.

(In fairness to them, they're largely concerned at present with the issue of processes for investigating systematic child abuse by the clergy and others, which might well be said to be a far more serious and important matter than who gets to be Prime Minister.)

Agent Smith
13-11-2012, 09:22 PM
The local crappy radio news here has twice run stories about Abbott's amazing popularity along these lines: "Labor's personal attacks on T.A. have taken it's toll, as his satisfaction ratings hit another low today."

The general aus media's bias is quite amazing. Whether Murdoch is solely responsible for it ... i suppose he is, but who knows. Murdoch couldn't tip the US elections, and it must be a blow in the guts to the old a-hole.

Kevin Bonham
13-11-2012, 10:24 PM
Yes the parade of excuses from the usual hacks has been astounding.

The historic life expectancy of a leadership with ratings this bad is about three months, but who knows what will happen. After all, the government might fall or something.

Kevin Bonham
14-11-2012, 09:09 AM
It has now begun with Paul Kelly (Paul Kelly (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/obamas-win-opens-up-opportunities-for-gillard/story-e6frg74x-1226516156384 or non-paywalled via top hit at bit.ly/SZOXUj) referring to Abbott as "the embattled leader":


THE re-election of Barack Obama is littered with lessons and traps for Australian politics but offers an insight into the successful tactics embraced by Julia Gillard and the emerging problems for Tony Abbott.

There are three standout messages: the power of the negative campaign, the changing nature of the culture war and the narrative that defines the embattled leader.

[..]


And Gillard Labor is now redefining Abbott. The Liberal camp has been exposed as far too smug and static. It felt that Abbott, Opposition Leader since late 2009, was safely defined as a hard-hat, anti-carbon tax, battler's mate, a latter-day Ben Chifley.

But Gillard and her ministers have put a more lethal brand on Abbott: that he is "out of date" with contemporary Australia. Being negative is not the problem; it is just part of the bigger problem, namely that Abbott is negative about modern Australia's norms and values.

Frozen by their lead, the Liberals sat pat and allowed Labor to recast their leader's image. Abbott's mistakes have played into their hands. The content of this attack differs from that on Romney but the principle is identical: it is about character and thrives on social media momentum.

"Frozen by their lead"!

Kevin Bonham
16-11-2012, 10:56 AM
Another awesome gaffe by our man today over Gardasil, claiming credit for a decision made years ago when in fact he was overruled by Howard. That follows his "authentic" Aboriginal gaffe a few days ago.

Anyway, quiz question time:

Which Opposition Leader's net satisfaction rating once increased by 61 points in seven weeks?

If it's all too hard or you already know the answer, my latest piece which answers this question and continues analysing Abbott's unpopularity in the historic context is here:

http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/as-gillard-recovered-so-can-abbott.html

Kevin Bonham
16-11-2012, 07:23 PM
Actually the Gardasil thing is much, much worse than I realised when I made my initial comment. Abbott tweeted this:


Pleased to see research on the positive impacts of Gardasil being on the PBS; a decision I made as health minister

and the reality is that when Abbott was health minister he attempted to obstruct the availability of Gardasil and was overruled by Howard.

Now he's trying to take credit for it.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/cancer-vaccine-not-before-2008-abbott/2006/11/10/1162661861926.html

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/howard-rescues-gardasil-from-abbott-poison-pill/story-e6frg9lx-1111112503504

Now if he had made this blunder at a press conference there would probably be a major media feeding frenzy about it already. Because it was only Twitter, there hasn't been anything yet, but it will be interesting to see if this does break out into the mainstream.

Ian Murray
16-11-2012, 08:21 PM
...there hasn't been anything yet, but it will be interesting to see if this does break out into the mainstream.
Wow! Has to happen surely - somebody has to whisper in a journo's ear.

Kevin Bonham
16-11-2012, 08:52 PM
Won't be too surprised if it crops up in the press somewhere tomorrow.

pax
19-11-2012, 07:56 PM
New Nielsen out today. Not a lot of change overall, but Tony is at a new nadir netsat of -24.

http://www.nielsen.com/content/dam/corporate/au/en/press/2012/Nielsen%20Poll%20November%202012.pdf

Kevin Bonham
19-11-2012, 08:29 PM
Yes. I'd think they'd be relieved it wasn't worse after the last two. At the moment many think Labor's momentum has stalled at about 47.5 2PP but I think it is too early to be confident of that.

I'll be hugely surprised if Abbott is booted this year. If it happens I think Feb or Mar. Then again at one stage I thought Gillard was likely to be booted. In that, I underestimated Labor.

Ian Murray
24-11-2012, 10:31 AM
http://newmatilda.com/files/imagecache/cartoon_homepage/images/121125-Mr-Unpopularity-600.jpg

Capablanca-Fan
07-04-2013, 11:27 AM
He will be our most culturally literate PM (http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/he_will_be_our_most_culturally_literate_pm/)
Andrew Bolt, 6 April 2013

As I said at the IPA anniversary dinner, I believe Tony Abbott - if successful at the election - will be the most culturally literate and thoughtful Prime Minister since at least Robert Menzies.

While I have at times argued with him over policy, I have not once had reason to question his character. I believe him to be a thoroughly good man. As I said, it is unimaginable to me that he would ever seek to lead by division or to foster the politics of hate. That simply is not in his character.

Abbott’s superb speech that night simply confirms for me those judgements (http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/News/tabid/94/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/9135/Address-to-Institute-of-Public-Affairs-70th-Anniversary-Dinner-Melbourne.aspx):


At one level, tonight we celebrate the 70th birthday of the Institute of Public Affairs; but at a deeper level we celebrate things that are timeless – the freedom that our civilisation has nurtured and the faith that has nurtured our civilisation....

In the Garden of Eden that Adam and Eve could do almost as they pleased but freedom turned out to have its limits and its abuses, as this foundational story makes only too clear. Yet without freedom we can hardly be human; hardly be worthy of creation in the image of God. From the Garden of Eden, to the Exodus, Athenian democracy, the Roman Senate, Magna Carta, the glorious revolution and American independence, the story of our civilisation has been the story of freedom and our struggles to achieve it.

Freedom, ladies and gentlemen, is what we yearn for but it can only exist within a framework of law so that every person’s freedom is consistent with the same freedom for everyone else. This is what the poet Tennyson meant when he described England as “a land of just and old renown, a land of settled government where freedom broadens slowly down from precedent to precedent”. At least in the English speaking tradition, liberalism and conservatism, love of freedom and respect for due process, have been easy allies.

The IPA, I want to say, has been freedom’s discerning friend. It has supported capitalism, but capitalism with a conscience. Not for the IPA, a single-minded dogmatism or opposition to all restraint; rather a sophisticated appreciation that freedom requires a social context and that much is expected from those to whom so much has been given. You’ve understood that freedom is both an end and a means; a good in itself, as well as necessary for full human flourishing…

Contemporary Australia has well and truly - and rightly - left behind the old cult of forgetfulness about our indigenous heritage. Alas, there is a new version of the great Australian silence – this time about the Western canon, the literature, the poetry, the music, the history and above all the faith without which our culture and our civilisation are unimaginable.

“Do unto others as you would have them do unto you” is the foundation of our justice. “Love your neighbour as you love yourself” is the foundation of our mercy. Faith has weakened but not, I’m pleased to say, this high mindedness which faith helped to spawn…

So, ladies and gentlemen, this is a special night. This is a night to renew our commitment, to renew our faith. In a hundred years’ time, all of us will be gone but, please God, not the ideals and the great causes for which we stand. May it be said of us that we have passed the torch of freedom to our successors; which we do by supporting an organisation that’s bigger than any of us and that can outlive all of us.

antichrist
07-04-2013, 11:55 AM
I can remember Robert Menzies and don't consider him culturally literate, our flagship by a mile is Edward Gough Whitlam, who, at the drop of a hat, could quote the ancient classics to bemused and bemuddled journalists. Abbot can only quote the Roman Catholic Church and BA Santamaria.

Gough was fully supported by the artistic community for his appreciation and sponsership of the arts. It was state Labor who built the Sydney Opera House.

I have younger Liberal cousins who hang off every word that Gough says as so brilliant.

Desmond
02-10-2019, 04:48 PM
Tony Abbott appointed to board of Australian War Memorial (https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tony-abbott-appointed-to-board-of-australian-war-memorial-20191001-p52wk1.html?fbclid=IwAR0nHW3oQcwezE0C7OOIbWr5YkV0P 7Bj_9Ymj5w0KvN1cogm7fBElW5ml28)

Possibly to open a new wing on the war within the Liberal Party, but that may just be my reading.

antichrist
02-10-2019, 06:39 PM
Tony Abbott appointed to board of Australian War Memorial (https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tony-abbott-appointed-to-board-of-australian-war-memorial-20191001-p52wk1.html?fbclid=IwAR0nHW3oQcwezE0C7OOIbWr5YkV0P 7Bj_9Ymj5w0KvN1cogm7fBElW5ml28)

Possibly to open a new wing on the war within the Liberal Party, but that may just be my reading.

I would have thought that ex-service personnel would have been appointed to the Board but both Abbot and Brenden Nelson I don't think served in the forces. I consider that Nelson took the job seriously and was successful but surely ex-service people who have risked their life deserve a cushy home coming.

antichrist
02-10-2019, 07:00 PM
With apologies to H L Mencken who said it better as "It is now quite lawful for a Catholic woman to avoid pregnancy by a resort to mathematics, though she is still forbidden to resort to physics or chemistry."

My sister in law was using maths but that subject was not her forte and you can guess the result.

Desmond
02-10-2019, 07:05 PM
I would have thought that ex-service personnel would have been appointed to the Board but both Abbot and Brenden Nelson I don't think served in the forces. I consider that Nelson took the job seriously and was successful but surely ex-service people who have risked their life deserve a cushy home coming.

Well, the thing is, you know, sometimes, shit happens.

antichrist
02-10-2019, 07:37 PM
Well, the thing is, you know, sometimes, shit happens.

Even Harold Holt did time in the Forces but he got no cushy job.

Patrick Byrom
02-09-2020, 03:14 PM
Abbott has some 'interesting' views on how to handle the pandemic (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/01/tony-abbott-some-elderly-covid-patients-could-be-left-to-die-naturally):

Tony Abbott, the former Australian prime minister tipped to become a UK trade envoy, has railed against Covid “health dictatorships”, saying the economic cost of lockdowns meant families should be allowed to consider letting elderly relatives with the coronavirus die by letting nature take its course.

His expressed views don't seem very consistent with his previous opposition to euthanasia, and they would be anathema to the Catholic Church, of course.

Blunderbuss
02-09-2020, 03:19 PM
Does anybody know if Tony Abbott said this: -


Labour MP Claudia Webbe quoted remarks attributed to him in 2012, that men were by physiology or temperament, more adapted than women to exercise authority and issue commands, and asked if, in the light of that opinion, he would have difficulty accepting the authority of Liz Truss. - https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-53989484 (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-53989484)

Kevin Bonham
02-09-2020, 04:12 PM
Does anybody know if Tony Abbott said this: -


Labour MP Claudia Webbe quoted remarks attributed to him in 2012, that men were by physiology or temperament, more adapted than women to exercise authority and issue commands, and asked if, in the light of that opinion, he would have difficulty accepting the authority of Liz Truss. - https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-53989484 (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-53989484)

These claimed remarks were widely quoted in 2012 but at the time were said to have been made in 1998. A claimed transcript of the comments was posted on Albanese's website in 2012 but had been removed by 2013. The claimed transcript was:


Tony Abbott said this: “If it’s true, Stavros, that men have more power, generally speaking, than women, is that a bad thing?”

Costa: “Clearly it’s a bad thing.”

Abbott: “Why is that, Michael?”

Costa: “I want my daughter to have as much opportunity as my son.”

Abbott: “Yeah, I completely agree, but what if men are by physiology or temperament more adapted to exercise authority or to issue commands?”

Costa: “Well see, I don’t believe that. What I do think is that we should never be in a situation where women have got to define their notions of success and self worth by negating a traditional role. But in terms of the power structure I think it’s very hard to deny that there is an under-representation of women.”

Abbott: “But now there’s an assumption that that is a bad thing.”

The alleged comments were referenced in Gillard's misogyny speech. It seems that there is no online reference to them that pre-dates 2012. However Liberals at the time including Julie Bishop defended Abbott's comments as supposedly just asking questions.

Blunderbuss
02-09-2020, 04:37 PM
I thought you might be all over this! Thanks Kevin.

Kevin Bonham
02-09-2020, 04:51 PM
I have now found the original article, published under the heading of "The Men's Room" in the SMH Good Weekend section Aug 29 1998. The whole article is a 7000 word transcript of a panel discussion and he is quoted as saying what Albanese said he said.

Blunderbuss
02-09-2020, 09:33 PM
I wonder if Albo tipped off the UK Labour MP Claudia Webbe? So she could quote it again in 2020. :)